Operation Barbarossa : A close call or Germany was simply outmatched?

Discussions on alternate history, including events up to 20 years before today. Hosted by Terry Duncan.
Meeko987
Member
Posts: 25
Joined: 16 May 2017, 14:19
Location: UK

Operation Barbarossa : A close call or Germany was simply outmatched?

#1

Post by Meeko987 » 15 Jun 2017, 20:09

Most people tend to say "Germany will lose in the end" Or "Soviet manpower is unlimited" and so on and say Germany was far from winning it.

But in the end,Germany was stopped just in front of Moscow. and germany high mobility make saving Stalingrad a possibility.

So is it fluke or fate?

Personally I think they got very lucky to get as far as they did.

User avatar
T. A. Gardner
Member
Posts: 3546
Joined: 02 Feb 2006, 01:23
Location: Arizona

Re: Operation Barbarossa : A close call or Germany was simply outmatched?

#2

Post by T. A. Gardner » 15 Jun 2017, 23:47

Germany lacked the means to pursue a war on the scale of invasion of the Soviet Union. This is particularly true while they still had to prosecute a war against Britain.
They only got as far as they did by stretching their resources so thin that any serious counterattack by the Soviets was going to succeed no matter how ineptly executed. From the second Germany launched their invasion of Russia it was pretty much doomed. They couldn't win a "quick" war due to the sheer size of the country and Germany's lack of ability to provide infrastructure to support a modern army, and Germany completely lacked the ability to fight and win a long war of attrition.


Meeko987
Member
Posts: 25
Joined: 16 May 2017, 14:19
Location: UK

Re: Operation Barbarossa : A close call or Germany was simply outmatched?

#3

Post by Meeko987 » 16 Jun 2017, 01:13

Sorry if I misread any of this but should they of prepared for a multiyear campaign? With the right support and supplies for the army etc? Try and make peace with Britain before attempting to invade?

thaddeus_c
Member
Posts: 816
Joined: 22 Jan 2014, 04:16

Re: Operation Barbarossa : A close call or Germany was simply outmatched?

#4

Post by thaddeus_c » 16 Jun 2017, 03:08

my flip comment is they are one country short of being able to defeat USSR ... be that Japan or Turkey.

although my view is that they should have further developed their synthetic fuel plants, tried to exploit the collaboration with Vichy regime, and avoided an invasion of USSR

ljadw
Member
Posts: 15589
Joined: 13 Jul 2009, 18:50

Re: Operation Barbarossa : A close call or Germany was simply outmatched?

#5

Post by ljadw » 16 Jun 2017, 07:03

It never was a close call, it was mission impossible .

User avatar
stg 44
Member
Posts: 3376
Joined: 03 Dec 2002, 02:42
Location: illinois

Re: Operation Barbarossa : A close call or Germany was simply outmatched?

#6

Post by stg 44 » 16 Jun 2017, 13:43

Meeko987 wrote:Most people tend to say "Germany will lose in the end" Or "Soviet manpower is unlimited" and so on and say Germany was far from winning it.

But in the end,Germany was stopped just in front of Moscow. and germany high mobility make saving Stalingrad a possibility.

So is it fluke or fate?

Personally I think they got very lucky to get as far as they did.
Without question the Germans got extremely lucky that so many things leading up to the war went their way because Stalin. Facing an unmobilized, reorganizing, expanding, purged, politically cowed, modernizing enemy without border defenses and disassembled previous border defense was about as dream a scenario as one could ask for. But that was the situation leading up to the conflict. On their own side the Germans screwed up by not taking the campaign more seriously and preparing more to repair, expand, and rebuild the Soviet rail system, which would have been a game changer for the campaign, while at the same time made a bunch of operational mistakes during the campaign. It was winnable given how much Stalin screwed up his forces and was lost due to lack of sufficient preparations and operational/strategic mistakes during the campaign. That said, normally if the USSR was in a better position with their military, and the only reason it wasn't was because of Stalin, then there is no chance the Germans could have gotten nearly as far as they did. So normal Soviet military preparedness=Germans get checked well short of OTL max penetrations, but the Soviet military was just so specially messed up that Barbarossa was winnable had the Germans, really Hitler and some of his generals, not messed up as badly as they did both in the conduct of the campaign (advancing to Leningrad was unnecessary, same with Rostov) and in logistical preparations.

ljadw
Member
Posts: 15589
Joined: 13 Jul 2009, 18:50

Re: Operation Barbarossa : A close call or Germany was simply outmatched?

#7

Post by ljadw » 16 Jun 2017, 14:40

stg 44 wrote:
Meeko987 wrote:Most people tend to say "Germany will lose in the end" Or "Soviet manpower is unlimited" and so on and say Germany was far from winning it.

But in the end,Germany was stopped just in front of Moscow. and germany high mobility make saving Stalingrad a possibility.

So is it fluke or fate?

Personally I think they got very lucky to get as far as they did.
Without question the Germans got extremely lucky that so many things leading up to the war went their way because Stalin. Facing an unmobilized, reorganizing, expanding, purged, politically cowed, modernizing enemy without border defenses and disassembled previous border defense was about as dream a scenario as one could ask for. But that was the situation leading up to the conflict. On their own side the Germans screwed up by not taking the campaign more seriously and preparing more to repair, expand, and rebuild the Soviet rail system, which would have been a game changer for the campaign, while at the same time made a bunch of operational mistakes during the campaign. It was winnable given how much Stalin screwed up his forces and was lost due to lack of sufficient preparations and operational/strategic mistakes during the campaign. That said, normally if the USSR was in a better position with their military, and the only reason it wasn't was because of Stalin, then there is no chance the Germans could have gotten nearly as far as they did. So normal Soviet military preparedness=Germans get checked well short of OTL max penetrations, but the Soviet military was just so specially messed up that Barbarossa was winnable had the Germans, really Hitler and some of his generals, not messed up as badly as they did both in the conduct of the campaign (advancing to Leningrad was unnecessary, same with Rostov) and in logistical preparations.
This is an old classic from the fifties:Stalin screwed it for the Soviets (said Zhukof) and Hitler screwed it for the Germans (said Halder ).

Hitler an d Stalin were dead, Zhukov and Halder alive .The survivors are always believed .Wrongly .

User avatar
stg 44
Member
Posts: 3376
Joined: 03 Dec 2002, 02:42
Location: illinois

Re: Operation Barbarossa : A close call or Germany was simply outmatched?

#8

Post by stg 44 » 16 Jun 2017, 16:05

ljadw wrote: Hitler an d Stalin were dead, Zhukov and Halder alive .The survivors are always believed .Wrongly .
Such a compelling counterargument. The reality was Zhukov was sidelined post-war, Stalin wrote the history from his perspective and hid Soviet losses.
http://www.goodreads.com/book/show/1648 ... g_Colossus
David Glantz really makes a good case for the problems the USSR had in 1941, which go back to Stalin's decisions. In terms of the German side, clearly it was not just Hitler, but also the people he chose to put in place and their choices. Halder was one of his guys after all, replacing Beck on Keitel's recommendation (Keitel being Hitler's agent).
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wilhelm_Keitel
According to David Stahel, among the generalship Keitel was "well known and [...] reviled as Hitler's dependable mouthpiece and habitual yes-man."[1]:277
Though we should also remember that Halder was the one trying to get Hitler to go for Moscow, not waste time and resource on Leningrad, which is confirmed by the historical record.

ljadw
Member
Posts: 15589
Joined: 13 Jul 2009, 18:50

Re: Operation Barbarossa : A close call or Germany was simply outmatched?

#9

Post by ljadw » 16 Jun 2017, 22:17

Glantz is wrong, not for the first time : his admiration for the Soviet generals is blinding him .
After the death of Stalin and the struggle between "stalinists" and "reformers " the army used the opportunity to turn Stalin into a scapegoat . As in Germany, the generals claimed the victories and blamed Stalin for the defeats . The truth is that Stalin and Hitler did give the generals much more liberty than is assumed and that the army chief (Chapochnikov) was a brilliant general, and that after a few weeks, Barbarossa had failed . It was only a question of pushing the Germans back to Berlin .
Halder was only the number two of the army : number one was Brauchitz .

ljadw
Member
Posts: 15589
Joined: 13 Jul 2009, 18:50

Re: Operation Barbarossa : A close call or Germany was simply outmatched?

#10

Post by ljadw » 16 Jun 2017, 22:19

stg 44 wrote:
Though we should also remember that Halder was the one trying to get Hitler to go for Moscow, not waste time and resource on Leningrad, which is confirmed by the historical record.
And, ...Hitler was going to Moscow .

User avatar
stg 44
Member
Posts: 3376
Joined: 03 Dec 2002, 02:42
Location: illinois

Re: Operation Barbarossa : A close call or Germany was simply outmatched?

#11

Post by stg 44 » 16 Jun 2017, 22:28

ljadw wrote:Glantz is wrong, not for the first time : his admiration for the Soviet generals is blinding him .
After the death of Stalin and the struggle between "stalinists" and "reformers " the army used the opportunity to turn Stalin into a scapegoat . As in Germany, the generals claimed the victories and blamed Stalin for the defeats . The truth is that Stalin and Hitler did give the generals much more liberty than is assumed and that the army chief (Chapochnikov) was a brilliant general, and that after a few weeks, Barbarossa had failed . It was only a question of pushing the Germans back to Berlin .
Halder was only the number two of the army : number one was Brauchitz .
How so? He's simply stating the army was messed up badly by Stalin and his general's orders for reorganization, expansion, modernization, building of the Molotov line will dismantling the Stalin line, and purging the military ruthlessly. Plus of course not mobilizing for the invasion. Glantz is working with Soviet archives from that era, not post-Stalinist secondary literature. There were multiple times that Stalin disregarded his own generals' advice, plus times where his team screwed up too, especially his buddies like Budenny, whom he spared after repeated fuck ups. On the German side too there were serious problems with some generals and their conduct, like organizing the rail logistics for the campaign and assuming it would be over in 2-3 months (though Hitler certainly influenced that perspective).

ljadw
Member
Posts: 15589
Joined: 13 Jul 2009, 18:50

Re: Operation Barbarossa : A close call or Germany was simply outmatched?

#12

Post by ljadw » 17 Jun 2017, 09:14

The army was not messed up badly by Stalin .That it was messed up by Stalin is an invention by the military lobby to explain the initial Soviet losses . The influence of the purges was insignificant.

There was also no need to mobilize before the invasion, as the GRU was not able to give reliable informations that an invasion was nearing. This changed only the last few days and than it was to late .

The German assumption that Barbarossa would be won (not over ) in 2-3 months was wrong, but was not a mistake : Barbarossa could only be won if it was won in 2-3 months .Otherwise it would be lost .

The rail logistics problem was solved, but it had no influence on the outcome of Barbarossa .

thaddeus_c
Member
Posts: 816
Joined: 22 Jan 2014, 04:16

Re: Operation Barbarossa : A close call or Germany was simply outmatched?

#13

Post by thaddeus_c » 17 Jun 2017, 15:37

stg 44 wrote: On their own side the Germans screwed up by not taking the campaign more seriously and preparing more to repair, expand, and rebuild the Soviet rail system, which would have been a game changer for the campaign, while at the same time made a bunch of operational mistakes during the campaign ... (advancing to Leningrad was unnecessary, same with Rostov) and in logistical preparations.
defer to your knowledge of rail system and its relative importance ... however ... they had ready transport system with Baltic and Black Sea AND could have curtailed Battle of Britain or otherwise adjusted to at least build the 200 odd Gigant transport planes? THAT (IMO) is the inexcusable failure, to not charge KM with some of burden and to charge LW to be transport arm as well as fighting force and not have planes to do it.

of course my view it would be victory if Germany captured to Baltic-White Sea Canal/Volkov River line and Southern Bug River? so that may not be seen as victory by majority.

User avatar
stg 44
Member
Posts: 3376
Joined: 03 Dec 2002, 02:42
Location: illinois

Re: Operation Barbarossa : A close call or Germany was simply outmatched?

#14

Post by stg 44 » 17 Jun 2017, 17:32

thaddeus_c wrote: defer to your knowledge of rail system and its relative importance ... however ... they had ready transport system with Baltic and Black Sea AND could have curtailed Battle of Britain or otherwise adjusted to at least build the 200 odd Gigant transport planes? THAT (IMO) is the inexcusable failure, to not charge KM with some of burden and to charge LW to be transport arm as well as fighting force and not have planes to do it.

of course my view it would be victory if Germany captured to Baltic-White Sea Canal/Volkov River line and Southern Bug River? so that may not be seen as victory by majority.
Not really my knowledge on the rail logistics, we have an extremely knowledgeable poster over in the Eastern Front and Economy subforums here who started a number of threads about logistics in the east that are excellent. Deraltefritz is the poster.

The Baltic shipping route was used, but IOTL it was interdicted somewhat by the Soviet submarine fleet and the Baltic coast was only opened late in the campaign due to the Soviets holding the Baltic islands until September and then the Soviet Baltic fleet not being bottled up until about then too.
The Gigant transport wasn't really conceived at the time. The Me 321 wasn't introduced until after Barbarossa started. By January 1942 they were already testing the Me323. The Black Sea Fleet prevented Axis shipping from being used on a large scale BTW, so that isn't really a great option until they are dealt with, but Turkey wouldn't allow military ships through their Straits, so no Axis large warships allowed into the region to fight the Black Seas Fleet, just the Romanian fleet.

Richard Anderson
Member
Posts: 6350
Joined: 01 Jan 2016, 22:21
Location: Bremerton, Washington

Re: Operation Barbarossa : A close call or Germany was simply outmatched?

#15

Post by Richard Anderson » 17 Jun 2017, 19:02

ljadw wrote:It never was a close call, it was mission impossible .
No, neither a "close call" nor a "mission impossible".

Given the circumstances in play a victory for Germany was extremely improbable. Those circumstances were Germany already at war with the British Empire and the Soviet Union fairly certain of a quiescent or otherwise occupied Japan. Absent those then it becomes mission possible, although still uncertain. :lol:
Richard C. Anderson Jr.

American Thunder: U.S. Army Tank Design, Development, and Doctrine in World War II
Cracking Hitler's Atlantic Wall
Hitler's Last Gamble
Artillery Hell

Post Reply

Return to “What if”