What if Hitler made fighting Britain a serious consideration from the start..

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Re: What if Hitler made fighting Britain a serious consideration from the start..

Post by Richard Anderson » 21 Dec 2019 16:44

glenn239 wrote:
21 Dec 2019 15:59
Right, but if the Allies could unload 7,000 tons per day on British beaches, 7,500 tons per day on Omaha, 4,500 tons per day on Utah, plus the Canadians, that's over 20,000 tons per day over the beach even allowing for tidal conditions. How many specialised LST type ships did they need to deliver this 20,000 tons per day? (Might be impossible to calculate since as you suggest, they were also unloading at Mulberrys and in ports too).
The useful load limit for the LST for beach landing was 500 tons. So in theory 400 LST per day. However, they were also landing supplies from LCT and coasters, as well as from ships onto LCT, DUKWs, and Rhinos, which complicates the picture.

You also need to realize that unloading onto the beach, hardstand, jetty, or pier was only part of the problem. Beach and port clearance required additional work and especially motor vehicles to get supplies from the beach to the beachhead depots and then from the depots to the front. It was that part that broke down in September 1944 and which was always a drag on Allied operations (despite the belief that "Antwerp" was a cure-all).
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Re: What if Hitler made fighting Britain a serious consideration from the start..

Post by Richard Anderson » 21 Dec 2019 16:58

glenn239 wrote:
21 Dec 2019 16:14
Agreed, but don't underestimate the importance of Crete and Salonika. With Cyrenaica in Axis hands, airpower on Crete and in Eastern Libya secures the route from Salonika to Tobruk and Benghazi via Crete. It's about 180nm across the Med from Crete to North Africa. If the RN seeks to interdict this route under Axis airpower from both sides, it would be constant and brutal because the ability of the RN to slip in at night would be limited, and they'd be under air attack for long periods of time coming and going from Egypt.
Yes, but Cyrenaica, Tripolitania, Sicily, Pantelleria, and Crete were all in Axis hands at one time or another, and yet for some reason the RN continued to run operations out of Alexandria as far as Malta and also occasionally from Gibraltar eastwards.
The port capacity argument is specious. The fact is that mass production of MFP's and Siebel ferries in 1940/1941 would have decided the war in North Africa, because they could operate independent of port capacity.
Nope, I'm afraid it is your argument that is specious. First you have never demonstrated how such "mass production" could occur, nor do you seem to understand that landing supplies onto a beach does not equate to independence from port capacity.
The German army in Northern France in September 1940 looking at England would be quite surprised to discover that it did not consider unloading supplies over the beach.
It might surprise the German army too to discover that someone today would infer the operation was intended to be supported over the beaches and would ignore the planned coup de main on Dover and the great emphasis placed on the early and intact capture of Folkestone and Newhaven.
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Re: What if Hitler made fighting Britain a serious consideration from the start..

Post by ljadw » 21 Dec 2019 20:13

glenn239 wrote:
21 Dec 2019 16:03
TheMarcksPlan wrote:
21 Dec 2019 02:31
I don't see what this achieves for Germany - certainly not knocking Britain out of the war. If Hitler tries to move against Turkey - now almost surrounded - it'll be war with Russia anyway (and a significantly harder war if it's pushed back to 42).
If the Germans take the Middle East, what prevents the Germans and the Russians from partitioning the Middle East between them?
Wrong question : good question would be : why would Germany give the SU a part of the ME and why would the SU accept this ?

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Re: What if Hitler made fighting Britain a serious consideration from the start..

Post by ljadw » 21 Dec 2019 20:23

Saying ,as in post 517,that Tripoli and Benghazi had sufficient capacity to supply the axis forces in Libya ,is not correct, as these ports supplied nothing .The axis forces were supplied by the German and Italian railways ,and by the Italian merchant fleet .And that Tripoli was bigger ( something meaningless ) than Benghazi,does not mean that more supplies could be unloaded at Tripoli, and even if so, it does not mean that more supplies were unloaded at Tripoli .
Capacity is meaningless as prewar capacity is not the same as capacity in war time .
The only thing that is needed is to know how much was unloaded at Tripoli and how much at Benghazi, and why .

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Re: What if Hitler made fighting Britain a serious consideration from the start..

Post by ljadw » 21 Dec 2019 21:39

No one can calculate, even not approximately how many supplies the Axis forces in NA needed ,for obvious reasons as
1 the strength of the Axis forces was always varying : the AK had a strength of 14500 men in March 1941 and 48500 in September 1941
2 the needs were not the same for an advancing,retreating or stationary army .
3 a lot of the supplies that arrived at the harbours were not destinated for the military,but for the civilians :
in 1942 383000 tons of supplies arrived for the Italian army,32000 for the Italian navy, 37000 for the Italian air force,280000 tons for the Germans (LW and army ),79000 for the civilians .
Thus ,what were the needs of the Axis forces ?
In 1941,450000 tons arrived for the Italians,274000 for the Germans and 127000 for the civilians .
What were the needs of the Axis forces ?

Source : Christos military and intelligence corner .

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Re: What if Hitler made fighting Britain a serious consideration from the start..

Post by pugsville » 21 Dec 2019 22:37

Avalancheon wrote:
21 Dec 2019 14:28


Wrong. The port of Benghazi had a railway extending 107 km to Marj (which was called Barce back then). The Italians didn't need to use trucks on this part of the supply route, since the deliverys were of consistent high volume. If they could extend the railway another 201 km from Marj to Derna, then that would represent a considerable logistical surplus.
I disagree strongly here.it was a very low capacity railway,

See old thread
viewtopic.php?t=99035

here's a nice map of railways in Libya in ww2
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Italian_Libya_Railways
Avalancheon wrote:
21 Dec 2019 14:28
If the British lose Malta, they can't sail through the central Mediterranean. They can send subs through that part of the sea, but surface ships will be at extreme risk. To restate what TheMarcksPlan said before:

''Anybody who analyzes Malta simply by the number of ships its garrison sunk is walking blind. Malta forced shipping into convoys that had to sail far afield of direct Italy-Libya routes, decreasing Italian practical lift capacity by an order of magnitude. By concentrating cargo-offloading into convoy arrival dates, it likewise reduced the monthly/seasonal capacity of the Libyan and Italian ports: instead of being able to use their full capacity round the clock, they'd face a wave of offloading requirements followed by periods of dormancy. Likewise for the truck and coastal shipping resources emanating from the ports.''
Well he has his opinion and i have mine. The Removal of Malta would at best remove only 50% of Shipping losses.

Malta only did 60% of the damage and more than half the Malta damage in early 1941 was submarines.

The Royal Navy was not that risk averse. Supplying Malta cost the Royal, Navy quite a bit, the same resources put into raiding is gong produce SOME result.
Avalancheon wrote:
21 Dec 2019 14:28
Fair enough. Although this would be remediable with the greater resources which would be available if the Germans made the Mediterranean their main theater.
Resources are not instantly transformable one thing to another.

How? Designing and building specialty ships is years.
Running merchant ships through the channel around Spain is not exactly super easy either,
Avalancheon wrote:
21 Dec 2019 14:28
This is true. The Germans never put any thought into beach loading of supplys.
Well the Germans were not a major naval power experienced in Naval landing operations. The Germans also had a real blind spot in logistics, they simply did not make logistics central to their operational planning process the way the allies did.

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Re: What if Hitler made fighting Britain a serious consideration from the start..

Post by Carl Schwamberger » 22 Dec 2019 01:54

pugsville wrote:
20 Dec 2019 11:16
... I;'m interesting in logistics generally so I'll dig aorund and see what i can turn up maybe CARL might have some papers of France 1944 logistics.
You'd want Ruppenthals 'Logistics in Overlord' For your primer, tho it covers just the US Army/AAF/Service Forces. But, it will serve you as a good basis for getting into the weeds as we used to say in the Old Corps. It does make clear the basis for planning for the Commonwealth-21Army Group, but lacks information on the post invasion execution for 21AG. Theres some other histories that serve for 21 Army Group if you want a complete primer. But I'll leave others with more complete knowledge to recommend those.

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Re: What if Hitler made fighting Britain a serious consideration from the start..

Post by Richard Anderson » 22 Dec 2019 03:24

Carl Schwamberger wrote:
22 Dec 2019 01:54
pugsville wrote:
20 Dec 2019 11:16
... I;'m interesting in logistics generally so I'll dig aorund and see what i can turn up maybe CARL might have some papers of France 1944 logistics.
You'd want Ruppenthals 'Logistics in Overlord' For your primer, tho it covers just the US Army/AAF/Service Forces. But, it will serve you as a good basis for getting into the weeds as we used to say in the Old Corps. It does make clear the basis for planning for the Commonwealth-21Army Group, but lacks information on the post invasion execution for 21AG. Theres some other histories that serve for 21 Army Group if you want a complete primer. But I'll leave others with more complete knowledge to recommend those.
Sorry Carl, but that is utter nonsense. Don't you know "logistics" is one of the watchwords of anti-wehrabooism? Along with "economics" and "war of attrition". And since they are usually uttered by folks with no economic training and not the slightest idea of logistics, then that means you have no idea what you are talking about...and neither does Ruppenthal, Leighton, Smith, Fairchild and Grossman, Hancock and Gowing, Postan, and et al, nor the anonymous authors of Administrative History of 21 Army Group. :lol: :lol: :lol:
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Re: What if Hitler made fighting Britain a serious consideration from the start..

Post by TheMarcksPlan » 22 Dec 2019 07:49

pugsville wrote:Well he has his opinion and i have mine. The Removal of Malta would at best remove only 50% of Shipping losses
Are you still looking at ships sunk only? Hard to tell.

Re the Axis needing to unload onto lighters for beach supply, are you just unaware of the MFP and Siebel Ferries and pioneer landungsboote? Known as motoazetta, MFP was built and used by Italy as well.

Finally you seem to be unaware of the demonstrated Axis capacity for amphibious landings. Look up Operations Beowulf in the Baltic, Blucher 2 across Kerch Strait, and the recapture of Kos and Leros, among others, by the Germans after Italian capitulation. Might ss well consider the evacuation of Crimea as well, which involved MFP's and Siebels. At a bar typing this on my phone but Google will probably give you the info you need.
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Re: What if Hitler made fighting Britain a serious consideration from the start..

Post by TheMarcksPlan » 22 Dec 2019 07:59

Richard Anderson wrote:
22 Dec 2019 03:24
Carl Schwamberger wrote:
22 Dec 2019 01:54
pugsville wrote:
20 Dec 2019 11:16
... I;'m interesting in logistics generally so I'll dig aorund and see what i can turn up maybe CARL might have some papers of France 1944 logistics.
You'd want Ruppenthals 'Logistics in Overlord' For your primer, tho it covers just the US Army/AAF/Service Forces. But, it will serve you as a good basis for getting into the weeds as we used to say in the Old Corps. It does make clear the basis for planning for the Commonwealth-21Army Group, but lacks information on the post invasion execution for 21AG. Theres some other histories that serve for 21 Army Group if you want a complete primer. But I'll leave others with more complete knowledge to recommend those.
Sorry Carl, but that is utter nonsense. Don't you know "logistics" is one of the watchwords of anti-wehrabooism? Along with "economics" and "war of attrition". And since they are usually uttered by folks with no economic training and not the slightest idea of logistics, then that means you have no idea what you are talking about...and neither does Ruppenthal, Leighton, Smith, Fairchild and Grossman, Hancock and Gowing, Postan, and et al, nor the anonymous authors of Administrative History of 21 Army Group. :lol: :lol: :lol:
Wow I almost missed this. Richard and I claim to have each other on ignore but every now and then I'll check to see what he's up to and - whadyaknow? - it's a passive-aggressive dig. Merry Christmas to you as well, Richard!
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Re: What if Hitler made fighting Britain a serious consideration from the start..

Post by pugsville » 22 Dec 2019 09:07

TheMarcksPlan wrote:
22 Dec 2019 07:49
Re the Axis needing to unload onto lighters for beach supply, are you just unaware of the MFP and Siebel Ferries and pioneer landungsboote? Known as motoazetta, MFP was built and used by Italy as well.
I aware I just fail to see how they help much.

And you think they are going to be loaded in them in Italy and sailed across in North Africa? Really slow , extremely vulnerable.

At some point they had to loaded. If not in a port then by cranes from the ship, ship does not have cranes? Now you just introduced double handling, making it slower,

MFP were not available ein any numbers in 1941. But much the same applies.

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Re: What if Hitler made fighting Britain a serious consideration from the start..

Post by TheMarcksPlan » 22 Dec 2019 11:34

pugsville wrote:
22 Dec 2019 09:07
TheMarcksPlan wrote:
22 Dec 2019 07:49
Re the Axis needing to unload onto lighters for beach supply, are you just unaware of the MFP and Siebel Ferries and pioneer landungsboote? Known as motoazetta, MFP was built and used by Italy as well.
I aware I just fail to see how they help much.

And you think they are going to be loaded in them in Italy and sailed across in North Africa? Really slow , extremely vulnerable.

At some point they had to loaded. If not in a port then by cranes from the ship, ship does not have cranes? Now you just introduced double handling, making it slower,

MFP were not available ein any numbers in 1941. But much the same applies.
At 10.5kn they were about same speed as Liberty Ships, which were fast merchant men at their time. Idk the stats of the Italian merchant fleet but I'd be surprised if much of it were faster.

Re loading on the European end I don't get your point. You just load them like any other ship and unload them uniquely.

Availability in 1941 would change if pursuing a Med strategy. Wehrmacht built a new MFP factory on the Danube within a few months to support Black Sea activities, could have escalated that effort by orders of magnitude if 41 production wasn't geared towards Barbarossa.
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Re: What if Hitler made fighting Britain a serious consideration from the start..

Post by TheMarcksPlan » 22 Dec 2019 12:28

glenn239 wrote:
21 Dec 2019 16:03
TheMarcksPlan wrote:
21 Dec 2019 02:31
I don't see what this achieves for Germany - certainly not knocking Britain out of the war. If Hitler tries to move against Turkey - now almost surrounded - it'll be war with Russia anyway (and a significantly harder war if it's pushed back to 42).
If the Germans take the Middle East, what prevents the Germans and the Russians from partitioning the Middle East between them?
Nothing. Well, nothing insuperable. They'd have to finesse joint access to the straits but that's probably doable in the short term.

But what does sharing the Middle East solve any more than what sharing Poland solved? Does it make Stalin think Hitler isn't just waiting for his moment to crush him and vice versa? IMO no, it just expands the zone where interests directly clash.
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Re: What if Hitler made fighting Britain a serious consideration from the start..

Post by pugsville » 22 Dec 2019 12:52

TheMarcksPlan wrote:
22 Dec 2019 11:34
At 10.5kn they were about same speed as Liberty Ships, which were fast merchant men at their time. Idk the stats of the Italian merchant fleet but I'd be surprised if much of it were faster.

Re loading on the European end I don't get your point. You just load them like any other ship and unload them uniquely.

Availability in 1941 would change if pursuing a Med strategy. Wehrmacht built a new MFP factory on the Danube within a few months to support Black Sea activities, could have escalated that effort by orders of magnitude if 41 production wasn't geared towards Barbarossa.


https://www.naval-encyclopedia.com/ww2/ ... ious-ships

"The 700 originally created for Operation Sealion (July 1940) -the first was commissioned on 16 April 1941"

"The prototype also was to use 600 hp 6-cylinder surplus BMW aircraft engines and a truck Deutz engine, for 13 knots total, but the first proved fuel-hungry and troublesome and n the end only truck engines were used, all diesels and reliable. The three engines gave 390HP for 8 to 10.5 knots (empty) but allowed for a much larger range of 1340nm at 7kn, simplified maintenance and supply."

11 months from inception to first commission.
Speed was 8 to 10 when Empty.


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Landing_Ship,_Tank
"18 knots (33 km/h; 21 mph) laden to beaching draught"
"Capacity: 13 Churchill tanks or 20 medium tanks, 27 vehicles on upper deck, 193 men"

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Re: What if Hitler made fighting Britain a serious consideration from the start..

Post by TheMarcksPlan » 22 Dec 2019 12:56

pugsville wrote:Berthing space in Benghazi was given as two large (max. 3,500 GRT, 7 m draft), one small vessel, and one tanker. Only eight Italian and four German merchants fitted that bill in September 1941. "

again critically underlining the poor shipping resources available to the axis that made optimum unloading of ports var dependent on other factors,
You missed the blog author's point- reversed it actually.

Italy started the war with several million tons of shipping (3.5mil GRT iirc); the point is that only a few of the ships in Italy's substantial fleet were large enough to block out harbor access with a couple ships. Aside from those few ships, a stream of smaller ships could continuously use the harbor if freed from the constraints imposed by Malta.
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