Do Allies make peace if Russia is beaten?

[CannonFodder95]

I really don't get why people bring up atomic bombs so much, in most of these thought experiments including this one the bomb is at least 3 and a half years away, in reality the US weren't anywhere close the bomb until mid 1944. The question of this is will the allies just give up and sue for peace or continue with the fighting. You also have to take into account that allied bombings would take much higher casualty rates because there is no eastern front to deal with and more german planes would be in the air and fueled because of the USSR's oil supply and while a D-Day would probably succeed, the aftermath of the WAllies pushing into occupied Europe would be much more bloodier then it was in reality. The soviets were willing to take massive casualties in the battlefield because their homeland was at stake but I don't think Americans or British will go nearly as far as the soviets did.

In reality I think the allies would sue for peace and reevaluate their plans. Germany occupied Europe would fall in one way or another but I don't think nukes would be a part of it.

[Robert Rojas]

Greetings to both brother Cannon Fodder 95 and the community as a whole. Howdy C.F.! Well sir, in light of your installment of Wednesday - May 16, 2018- 7:27am, old yours truly would like to take this opportunity to welcome you to our merry little asylum that is the Axis History Forum. Now that I have the social niceties out of the way, I fully understand your consternation over the inevitability of the nuclear option. And yes, the United State of America will not possess operational nuclear weapons until the month of August in year 1945 and the period of time involved with this thread ostensibly covers the period of time from the autumn of year 1942 through the autumn of year 1944. It is the contention of this thread's author that the victory of the Western Alliance is inevitable, but the thread's author is also inquiring if the Germans could force a peace. Well, schizophrenia notwithstanding, I am of the school of thought that the Fascist consortium that I have christened as PAX EUROPA will simply have to hunker down and absorb the worst that the Anglo-American coalition can hurl at it provided that the Anglo-American coalition even has the political will to do so after its pyrrhic "victory" in the Pacific Theater of Operations in year 1944. Now, brother T.A. Gardiner presents a well articulated nuts and bolts case for the inevitable victory of the Anglo-American coalition in the European Theater of Operations within his posting of Monday - April 30, 2018 - 9:57pm and it is quite difficult to refute his technical assertions. However, I would contend (rightly OR wrongly) that a great deal of enthusiasm for the continuance of THE WAR will all but evaporate after the storming of the Home Islands of Japan during the course of year 1944. There was nothing in the collective American experience that could have prepared the body politic of this Republic for the ghastly casualty rate absorbed by Australia, Canada, New Zealand and the United States of America during this climatic episode of the Pacific War. The once dormant anti-war movement of the American Left and the isolationist movement of the American Right would be fully resuscitated just in time of the American Presidential election in the autumn of year 1944. With the ever growing legion of Gold Star mothers across the fruited plain, one can only speculate what the mood in the United States Congress might be after the epic slaughter in the Land of the Rising Sun. In short, with Pearl Harbor now avenged, who would care about the continent of Europe? It's just some sobering food for thought. Well, that is my latest two cents worth on this hypothetical topic of interest - for now anyway. In any case, I would like to bid you a copacetic day over in the Hoosier State of Indiana.


Best Regards,
Uncle Bob

[DerGiLLster]

Nothing would prevent the nuking of the German cities .

Huh, just shoot down the plane.

[ljadw]

I really don't get why people bring up atomic bombs so much, in most of these thought experiments including this one the bomb is at least 3 and a half years away, in reality the US weren't anywhere close the bomb until mid 1944. The question of this is will the allies just give up and sue for peace or continue with the fighting. You also have to take into account that allied bombings would take much higher casualty rates because there is no eastern front to deal with and more german planes would be in the air and fueled because of the USSR's oil supply and while a D-Day would probably succeed, the aftermath of the WAllies pushing into occupied Europe would be much more bloodier then it was in reality. The soviets were willing to take massive casualties in the battlefield because their homeland was at stake but I don't think Americans or British will go nearly as far as the soviets did.

In reality I think the allies would sue for peace and reevaluate their plans. Germany occupied Europe would fall in one way or another but I don't think nukes would be a part of it.

What oil supply ?
It would take the Germans several years to repair the oil wells and the Russian railways .
Besides, no eastern front would not mean more fighters to defend Germany, as most aircraft in the east were bombers .
About DDay : DDay would not be needed to defeat Germany .
About the Bomb : If the SU was defeated in 1943 ,it would take only two years to have a bomb .And the bomb was produced to be used against Germany, not against Japan .The OP was a Soviet defeat at the end of 1942, which was impossible, it would take several months after the end of 1943 .

[Takao]

What oil supply ?
It would take the Germans several years to repair the oil wells and the Russian railways .
Besides, no eastern front would not mean more fighters to defend Germany, as most aircraft in the east were bombers .
About DDay : DDay would not be needed to defeat Germany .
About the Bomb : If the SU was defeated in 1943 ,it would take only two years to have a bomb .And the bomb was produced to be used against Germany, not against Japan .The OP was a Soviet defeat at the end of 1942, which was impossible, it would take several months after the end of 1943 .

It would take the Germans several years to put back into 100% use of Soviet oilfields, however, it would be a much shorter timeframe to bring back into operation on field at a time, so the flow would increase...It did not take the Japanese several years to bring the Dutch fields back into operation, but the were also hauling over water.

No Eastern Front would still mean a sizeable increase in German fighters...There were some 500 fighters on the Eastern Front as of May, 1943.

The bomb was produced because we feared Germany would get there first. However, it was not intended to be used against Germany first. The first Atomic Bomb target selected was the Japanese naval base at Truk, and this was in mid-1943. You see, the powers that be feared that if the bomb was a dud, the Germans would be able to reverse engineer the Bomb, and use it against Allies. Japan was considered to be far less likely to do so, and with Truk as the target, it was hoped that the Bomb would be beyond reasonable salvage at the bottom of the lagoon.

[Paul Lakowski]

If USSR is neutralized in 1942, Axis can focus exclusively on WALLIES in particular Britain in 1943. The airpower released should truncate any allied bomber offensive and reinvigorate the BoB . The fuel released should also reinforce AXIS naval efforts to interdict the transatlantic life line to the remaining WALLIE and help the Italians dominate the Mediterranean.

What happens next? Who knows?

Seelowe 1943 anyone?

[Michael Kenny]

The 'massive' (and hollowed out) German Army was a reaction to the crisis in the east. Without the need to fight the Russian it would not exist in the same numbers. Therefore all scenarios where the Allies are facing the same manpower as that faced by the Russians are bogus.
The Axis did have the opportunity to take on (and invade/subdue) the UK using the full and undivided power of its armies- in 1940. It failed.

[Robert Rojas]

Greetings to both cousin Paul Lakowski and the community as a whole. Howdy Paul! Well sir, in respect to your installment of Thursday - May 17, 2018 - 6:52am, unless you were being tongue-in-cheek of course, old yours truly is of the layman's opinion that it is NOT terribly likely that the Fascist consortium now reigning over continental Europe will desire any further confrontation with the Anglo-American coalition. With the strategic goal of transforming themselves from dependent local powers into independent regional powers now fully realized, there will be no further need for either National Socialist Germany or Fascist Italy to continue offensive operations on the geographical periphery of its newly formed commonwealth. Hence, there will be no resumption of either Luftwaffe air operations over the British Isles or maritime interdiction by the Kriegsmarine on the Atlantic Ocean. After all, to paraphrase the all knowing Bohemian Corporal, the British are not our natural enemies. Whatever Luftwaffe air assets that have been reassigned to Western Europe from the newly acquired Eastern Territories will remain in defensive mode. Finally, during the early months of year 1943, the nations of Portugal, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland and Turkey will all be cordially "invited" to reassess their relationships with the NEW ORDER now governing over the remainder of continental Europe. Shortly thereafter, Francisco Franco will convey an ultimatum to Winston Churchill to vacate Gibraltar. What Happens next? Who knows? Well, that's my latest two cents worth on this hypothetical topic into the surreal - for now anyway. In any case, I would like to bid you a copacetic day up in your proverbial corner of the GREAT WHITE NORTH of Canada - EH!?


Best Regards,
Uncle Bob

[Paul Lakowski]

Yes Robert -tongue was planted in cheek along with grin..... but then the war is over and the Austrian military Corporal declares victory ....the WALLIES restarting such a war may be almost impossible.

[Robert Rojas]

Greetings to both cousin Paul Lakowski and the community as a whole. Howdy Paul! Well sir, thank you for your clarifying, if not parodial, notation of Friday - May 18, 2018 - 5:37pm. Now, as you succinctly point out, the Anglo-American coalition will inevitably be confronted with a Hobson's choice of either continuing open-ended hostilities or accepting the de facto armistice that was unilaterally declared by Europe's now ruling Fascists at the end of year 1942. In his posting of Monday - April 30, 2018 - 9:57pm, brother T.A. Gardiner clinically lays out a number of the potential economic, political and technological factors that will all but assure the decline and fall of the NEW ORDER in continental Europe. In deference to his point OR points-of-view, I would contend that the national will of the nations of Australia, Canada, New Zealand and the United States of America has been shaken to its grass roots core after the cataclysm that was the Invasion of Japan during the better course of year 1944. I rather suspect that both the civilian and military leadership of the Anglo-American coalition will have more than their fair share of reservations about conducting yet another all out assault upon a European enemy that might also inflict yet another one million plus Anglo-American casualties in terms of dead, wounded and missing. Remember, it is the autumn of year 1944 and President Franklin Delano Roosevelt is up for reelection and those projected casualty figures are lying on his desk. Remember, not all weighty decision making is based purely on Gross National Product alone. It's just some sobering food for thought. Well, that's my latest two cents worth on this expansive adventure into the hypothetical - for now anyway. In any case, I would like to bid you a copacetic day up in your proverbial corner of the GREAT WHITE NORTH of Canada - EH!?


Best Regards,
Uncle Bob

[MarkN]

Dear oh dear....

In the Summer of 1940 Churchill and Britain could have jacked - but they didn't. It was the time when Germany had the FULL might of its military - wehrmacht and luftwaffe - facing west. Just a screening force looked east agaunst its ally the Soviet Union. No threat or bother to the north or south. And to add to Britain's woes, Germany's other ally, Italy, had just decided to join the fight against Britain in North and East Africa.

At the end of 1942, when this discussion of fantasy is supposed to take place, thrle Soviet Union still exists east of the Urals which requires the bulk of any luftwaffe strategic bomber fleet to contain as well as 60 divisions to man the border and occupy and keep passive the conquored land. And then thete are the divisions needed to occupy and passify the Balkans.

In Africa, the East had been cleared and the 8th Army has just started the long march forward. Its forces in the UK are noe better trained and fully equipped. Hardly the case 18 months earlier.

And then there's the small addition to the side of the British effort...America.

Why would Britain throw in the towel at this point when the situation is so, so much more favourable than 1940 when it chose to fight on.

Why are so many posters desperate to have a discussion about a Germany victory?

[Paul Lakowski]

Dear oh dear....

In the Summer of 1940 Churchill and Britain could have jacked - but they didn't. It was the time when Germany had the FULL might of its military - wehrmacht and luftwaffe - facing west. Just a screening force looked east agaunst its ally the Soviet Union. No threat or bother to the north or south. And to add to Britain's woes, Germany's other ally, Italy, had just decided to join the fight against Britain in North and East Africa.

At the end of 1942, when this discussion of fantasy is supposed to take place, thrle Soviet Union still exists east of the Urals which requires the bulk of any luftwaffe strategic bomber fleet to contain as well as 60 divisions to man the border and occupy and keep passive the conquored land. And then thete are the divisions needed to occupy and passify the Balkans.

If the war in the east is over- why do they need the bulk of the strategic bomber force in the east? Would it not make more sense to re-tasked them to the "Battle of the Atlantic" or "Battle for the Med"? Occupation forces need not be best or even a sizable portion of the "cease fire - standing Army"

[Robert Rojas]

Greetings to both citizen ANDY HILL and the community as a whole. Howdy Andy! Well sir, as the designated moderator of the WHAT IF section of the forum, it might not be a terribly bad idea if you reviewed the overall tenor of this thread. There appears to be a festering issue gravitating on the not so inconsequential matter of topical orthodoxy. From outward appearances anyway, that topical orthodoxy seems to have its foundation sunk into the concrete of what some might consider as traditionally accepted outcomes. Since Ian Seymour 95 is not providing any input on this matter, then a bit of illuminating guidance from yourself might prove invaluable. I do not believe that it is at all necessary to have any MY WAY OR THE HIGHWAY urinating matches out here. Well, that's my latest two cents worth on this now wanting topic into the hypothetical - for now anyway. In any case, I would like to bid you a copacetic day over in merry old England. GOD SAVE THE QUEEN - not to mention everybody else.


Best Regards From The Upstart Colonies,
Uncle Bob

[MarkN]

If the war in the east is over- why do they need the bulk of the strategic bomber force in the east? Would it not make more sense to re-tasked them to the "Battle of the Atlantic" or "Battle for the Med"? Occupation forces need not be best or even a sizable portion of the "cease fire - standing Army"

I guess this all boils down to how one approaches these 'what if' nonsense threads.

Should one
(a) try and stick to historical reality as far as possible when considering the diversion from actual history; or,
(b) just use the diversion from history as an opportunity to fantasize with any and every alternative that one can think of that leads to the outcome one desires?

Guess which of the two I follow.

Sticking to what really happened, Britain did not roll over in the Summer or 1940. Why should it in the winter of '42/43 when the situation has improved so dramatically in their favor?

And, continuing with historical reality as my guide, Fuehrer Weisungs 21 and 32 indicate to us what was planned with Barbarossa and what was going to happen after it had succeeded. The magical diversion from history has Barbarossa not succeeding at the end of the summer 1941, but slogging it out for another 12-18 months. That additional 'slog' no doubt incurring a far higher toll on the German forces and economy then anticipated in Weisung 32 AND leaving the remaining Soviet Union east of the Urals in a better position than assumed. Thus sensible modifications to Weisung 32 taking that into account make sense.

Or, one takes the second approach and decide that since this is all fantasy, one can dream up whatever changes they like to best come up with the end result they seem to pine for: an overall Nazi victory and a discussion about how great/bad that would be. So yes, why don't you crack on and assume that th Soviet Union and all its citizens has been exterminated completely, Weisung 32 is now irrelevant and Germany is going to shift its entire force from east to west - thus cowering the British and Americans into surrender!!!!

PS. Also somebody needs to explain the dilemma regarding Britain/US fighting Japan whilst concocting a peace agreement with Hitler. Silly me! Anything goes in 'what if' - even magical outcomes! :roll:

[Robert Rojas]

Greetings to both citizen Ian Seymour 95 and the community as a whole. Howdy Ian! Well sir, in a continuing effort to build upon your introductory posting of Sunday - August 06, 2017 - 3:54pm, old yours truly will expand upon events that might conceivably materialize from the autumn of year 1944 through the spring of year 1945. After the biblical carnage wrought by the Invasion of Japan, there will be the butcher's bill to pay for Franklin Delano Roosevelt's administration. The Democrat Franklin Delano Roosevelt will be turned out of office on November 07, 1944 and replaced by the Republican Thomas Edmund Dewey as the new President of the United States of America. On the following day, then president-elect Dewey will be briefed about the existence and technical progress of the Manhattan Project. Lieutenant General Leslie Groves cannot guaranty the success of Robert Oppenheimer's theoretical research. With roughly one million plus Pacific War casualties weighing heavily upon his mind, president-elect Dewey will have much to ponder before his formal investiture as President of the United States of America on January 20, 1945. On the following day, now President Dewey will address a special session of the United States Congress with the full intent of terminating the United States of America's participation in the now war in Europe before the end of year 1945. Unless another solution can be formulated to address the Fascist preeminence on the continent of Europe, the Dewey administration will actively seek an armistice with NEW ORDER of PAX EUROPA. After the apocalyptic passion play that was Japan, America's hustings will NOT tolerate yet another primordial bloodbath upon the shores of old Europe. Over the next three days, Prime Minister John Curtin of Australia, Prime Minister William King of Canada and Prime Minister Peter Fraser of New Zealand will convey their respective intentions to His Majesty's Government in Great Britain to follow the lead of the United States of America. Prime Minister Winston Churchill will be cordially invited to do the same. PEACE IS HELL! Well, that's my latest two cents worth on this now wanting topic of interest - for now anyway. In any case, I would like to bid you a copacetic day over in your corner of the British Isles.


Best Regards From The Upstart Colonies!
Uncle Bob