Stalin dies in 1933: Who succeeds him?

[Ianseymour95]

In a scenario where Joseph Stalin dies exactly 20 years earlier than OTL (let's assume from a random heart attack or stroke), who succeeds him as leader of the Soviet Union? How does the Soviet Union develop with Stalin dying in 1933 instead of 1953?

[maltesefalcon]

That is an intriguing proposal, but very difficult to answer.

Many of the best or most likely candidates like Kirov or Trotsky were IRL assassinated or purged after 1933 so of course they would need to be considered. (The list of exiled, defamed, imprisoned or murdered potential rivals is so long it's very hard to narrow down.)

Kruschev of course would need to be considered as well as Beria. Molotov as well. Those would only be the Communists. No telling if there would be a resurgence of Republican sentiment or even a Faschist/Nationalist element trying to slip into the vaccuum.

[BDV]

Many of the best or most likely candidates like Kirov or Trotsky were IRL assassinated or purged after 1933 so of course they would need to be considered.

The most likely would be Rykov (most senior), Bukharin (charismatic, beloved, but not a cut-throat), and Kirov (probably not, on account of him representing the Leningrad section), then.

Kruschev of course would need to be considered as well as Beria. Molotov as well.

These guys were too junior at the time (1933).

[Terry Duncan]

Many of the best or most likely candidates like Kirov or Trotsky were IRL assassinated or purged after 1933 so of course they would need to be considered.

The most likely would be Rykov (most senior), Bukharin (charismatic, beloved, but not a cut-throat), and Kirov (probably not, on account of him representing the Leningrad section), then.

Kruschev of course would need to be considered as well as Beria. Molotov as well.

These guys were too junior at the time (1933).

Molotov was the technical head of state in western terms from 1930-1941 as he took over from Rykov on 19/12/1930. Beria was a nonentity in terms of political clout at this point, but Yagoda was a possibility if he used the security apparatus to remove opposition, though he showed little political savvy really. Molotov is probably the most likely to emerge as the leader, he has support, ability, and was aborn survivor, though how long he would last is another matter. Kirov is a possibility, he did, after all, heavily defeat Stalin in the notorious vote that led to the great purge (and likely his death) but he was junior to Molotov and there is a good chance one would support the other if it appeared either had the monopoly of popular support.

[ljadw]

The Op is not very well formulated : probably not ONE person would succeed to Stalin, but it would be a collective rulership,as happened when Stalin died in 1953 in the OTL.

Trotsky would remain outside the SU, he had only enemies in the Politbureau .Kirov was to young and to provincial,he was unknown outside Leningrad .

[BDV]

Molotov seems more of a "Igor"/Himmler type, more "eminence grise" than top dog.

That is, he makes for a formidable leutenant to the ultimate victor, if such alliance happens. I don't know what his relation with Rykov and/or Bukharin was at the time. So maybe he does ally with Kirov, ensuring his victory.

The other Czar-maker would be Lazar Kaganovitch; whomever these two figures would support would become Boss.

[NBrotz]

So, my understanding is that whoever is going to succeed Stalin as General Secretary of the Central Committee in 1933 would likely be a full member of one of the inner-groups (Politburo, Secretariat, or Orgburo) elected by the 16th Congress, preferably someone elected multiple times before. This of course assumes that by 1933, Stalin's power had been largely solidified, and no 'United Opposition' would be considered; Trotsky is still in exile, though he might live to die of natural causes. Zinoview and Kamenev can't expect much sympathy either.

• Yagoda - Very Unlikely; even if being OGPU Deputy Director would allow him to eliminate rivals, whether he had the support base to propel him to and keep him in power is another matter. He can't just send everyone to the Gulag.
• Rykov (and Bukharin) - Unlikely; although long-time Politburo members (and former Premier in Rykov's case), they'd since been ostracized and fallen out of flavor.
• Andreyev - Unlikely; although new to the Politburo and not mentioned in this thread yet, he was Deputy Premier, so he would likely be a major player in whatever happens.
• Kirov - Possibly; he was; he was First Secretary for regional committees (Azerbaijon and then Leningrad), so he had the necessary executive experience for the job. Although he was new to the Politburo (which was increasingly populated by Stalinist sycophants), he was quite popular with the Central Committee as a whole (more popular than Stalin apparently).
• Kaganovich - Possibly; as incumbent Second Secretary, he'd likely be acting General Secretary until a successor can be voted in. Although he might not hold power for long, he can hold power long enough to ensure that a Stalinist takes the reins.
• Molotov - Likely; he was a long-time member of every inner group, former Second Secretary, and was the incumbent Premier (head of government) at the time. Although he might've lacked the disposition to lead, he is one of the most logical candidates.

I'm surprised that Kalinin hasn't been mentioned yet. He was CEC Chairman of Russian Congress (since 1919) and CEC Chairman of the Soviet Congress (since 1922), in effect, de jure head of state for both Russia and the Soviet Union. I think he at least has to be given consideration, even if his disposition (like Kaganovich and Molotov) is not one to lead the Bolshevik Party.

[BDV]

So there it is:
r
The Kalinin figurehead, propped by Khaganovitch and Molotoff vs a mongrel alliance coalescing around Kirov. I expect Muscovites to not back down in front of the Leningradians, so Kalinin it is. Limpwristed Boucharine, Kameneff, Zinovieff, and Ordzhonikidze to line up behind "respected" Kalinin to shun outsider and ideologically suspect Kiroff

RKKA expected to play a role in the power struggle and the aftermath.

Military dictatorship by 1939?