1973: Israeli airforce preempts

[Von Schadewald]

According to this
http://www.jpost.com/International/The- ... War-506253
the Israelis detected the Egyptian build up & came within an ace of sending preemptive strike waves that could have caused an Arab debacle even bigger than 1967.

For reasons still unclear to this day they didn't preempt, and paid dearly.

What would have happened if they had preempted, with Egyptians and then the Syrians smashed before they even got off the start line?

Sadat, Assad Snr & even King Hussein would have been both overthrown & their countries in chaos. Israeli losses would have been slight, and their morale would have gone through the roof. Arab nationalism, the PLO and Islam as we know it would have taken history-changing body blows.

If the Saudis had dared to play the oil-card with Arab armies and morale in ruins, the US, UK and the West would have moved in to the oil fields. Brezhniev tinkers with sending in his paras to the Middle East & it goes to DEFCON 2, unlike OTL's DEFCON 3.

With no 1973 oil crisis, S.Vietnam holds, Edward Heath gets reelected, Watergate may not rise to become a resignation issue for Nixon, and the development of various military and automotive technologies is delayed 10 years.

[Kingfish]

What would have happened if they had preempted, with Egyptians and then the Syrians smashed before they even got off the start line?

You mean charge straight into the Arab SAM belt?

[Von Schadewald]

The article states that they would deal with the belt by a wave of 100 planes toss-bombing:

Had he known of this stationary target in real time, Peled would later say, he would have ordered an attack despite the profusion of SAMs in the area.

It might have meant the loss of two to four planes, he estimated, but it would have wrought greater destruction than the Egyptian army suffered in Sinai in the Six Day War.

Remarkable that Sadat risked this. His opinion of Israeli Jews was not high: "The second skin of every Jew is fear" he wrote.

[maltesefalcon]

Perhaps they ûnderestimated their enemies based on past performance? By allowing them to have the first punch, Israel could claim the moral high ground.
It would also show the Arab world they did not need the element of surprise to win.( Provided they did, of course.)

[Robert Rojas]

Greetings to both citizen Von Schadewald and the community as a whole. Howdy V.S.! Well sir, in deference to your point OR points-of-view as articulated within your introductory posting of Saturday - September 30, 2017 - 8:42am, old yours truly is of the layman's opinion that your theoretical preemptive strike by the Israeli Air Force will have, at very best, a minimal impact upon the operational plans of both the Egyptian and the Syrian armed forces on OR about October 06, 1973. Now, being ever mindful of the catastrophe that befell them in year 1967, I would assert that both the Egyptians and the Syrians would be more than just a wee bit proactive in their planning to address such a contingency. From my quite limited perspective on such weighty matters, I would contend (rightly OR wrongly) that the Arabs would address THREE essential issues in their planning to minimize the impact of a potential Israeli preemptive strike. The FIRST and most important of these essential issues is intelligence. The Arabs will clearly exercise due diligence within this critical realm. Their trump card would and will be the presence of covert operatives that have infiltrated both the Israeli Defense and Military establishments since the disaster of the Six Day War of year 1967. The source of these covert operatives will come courtesy of Soviet Military Intelligence. These G.R.U. agents would subsequently arrive in the State of Israel under the guise of oppressed Jewish emigres from the Soviet Union after year 1967. The SECOND of these essential issues will be the deployment of the Integrated Air Defense System which was also supplied courtesy of the Soviet Union. The Integrated Air Defense System will compel any airborne interloper to run a gauntlet of interlocking surface-to-air missile fire at high altitude and antiaircraft artillery fire at low altitude. The mechanics of the Integrated Air Defense System was battle tested and battle proven over the cities of Hanoi and Haiphong during the Vietnam War much to the chagrin of Uncle Sam's Airedales. The THIRD and last of these essential issues is simple redundancy. In the event that a few Israeli aircraft are fortunate to survive long enough to execute their bombing runs, then it would only be a matter rotating out the shot up echelon and rotating in a fresh echelon. That is where judiciously deployed reserves make their timely appearance. Finally, given the relative size of the 1973 era Israeli Air Force, I cannot envision that institution committing itself to an all out preemptive strike in BOTH the Sinai and Golan fronts. Such a dilution of force would be tantamount to pin pricking when a mailed fist would clearly be in order. With that said, I'll leave the political side of this hypothetical topic for a future installment. Well, that is my initial two cents worth on this hypothetical topic of interest - for now anyway. In any case, I would like to bid you a copacetic day over in your corner of the ever fractious Balkans.

Best Regards,
Uncle Bob

[South]

Good morning Von Schadewald,

The immediate question is why no Israeli preempt strike.

We must return to the 1956 Suez crisis and review the Great Power confrontation. This governs much of this.

In 1973 could the US deploy to the Saudi oil fields ? Wouldn't the Soviets be there ? Remember the US was still finishing up in Indochina.

South Vietnam was lost by 1973.

Uncle Bob; Arab spies in the Israeli MOD and IDF were easy to ID: they didn't shout that much (Arab hospitality trait).


~ Bob
eastern Virginia, USA

[Robert Rojas]

Greetings to both brother South and the community as a whole. Howdy Bob! Well sir, in light of your tongue-in-cheek installment of Thursday - May 10, 2018 - 6:17am, old yours did make a concerted effort to studiously avoid interjecting EITHER Israeli citizens of Arab ancestry OR Palestinian guest workers into my theoretical military intelligence gambit. Now, I am no one's idea of an ethnographer, but I do believe that it would be safe to assume that a preponderance of Israel's Hebraic citizenry will likely view the loyalty of Israel's Arab citizenry with more than a healthy dose of suspicion. Need I say more about the presence of Palestinian guest workers!? That is where I formulated the TROJAN HORSE of emigration into the State of Israel from the Soviet Union. After all, who could possibly mistrust anyone that is fleeing from the latter day pogroms of contemporary Muscovy? This unorthodox gambit would undoubtedly make great fodder for either a novel or a celluloid epic! It's just something to ponder. Well, that is my latest two cents worth on this hypothetical topic of interest - for now anyway. As always, I would like to bid you a copacetic day over in the Old Dominion that is the Commonwealth of Virginia.

Best Regards,
Uncle Bob

[Robert Rojas]

Greetings to both citizen Von Schadewald and the community as a whole. Howdy V.S.! Well sir, in continuing reference to your introductory posting of Saturday - September 30, 2017 - 8:42am, old yours truly would be remiss if I did not touch upon the political dimension of your thread. Now, without going into a droning treatise on this matter, the State of Israel was fully aware of the substantial Arab military buildup on its frontiers as early as October 05, 1973. Contrary to your stated assertion, the State of Israel opted to refrain from initiating a preemptive strike at the behest of the United States Government. It was the desire of the Nixon Administration that the State of Israel NOT be seen as the aggressor in yet another Arab-Israeli conflict. The officialdom of the Nixon Administration had legitimate concerns over the potential reaction of the United States Congress to such a preemptive strike. There was an air of doubt whether or not the United States Congress would have any enthusiasm to authorize any financial and material support to Jerusalem if the State of Israel was perceived as an aggressor. In the domestic and International realities of year 1973, it was the United States of America that was the State of Israel's last substantial benefactor. In the Machiavellian world of realpolitik, it is never a very wise policy to bite the hand that feeds you. Now, contrary to urban myth and legend, the industrialized world was already feeling the clout of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries long before the 1973 Arab-Israeli War. The 1973 Arab-Israeli War only exacerbated that clout with the institution of the Arab oil embargo. On an incidental matter, the body politic of the United States of America displayed no particular enthusiasm for engaging in a potential war of conquest in the Persian Gulf. After all, in early 1973, the United States of America had just concluded its incremental withdrawal from the then Republic of Vietnam and had also formally ended military conscription. The American experience in greater Indochina had cost this nation roughly 60,000 fatalities with little or nothing to show for that sacrifice. And yes, for terms of good theater and public relations, the Nixon Administration elevated the United States of America to Defense Condition Two during the latter stages of the 1973 Arab-Israeli War. I believe this decision was ultimately crafted to placate the State of Israel from potentially resorting to its own not so diminutive nuclear option. And after all was said and done, the State of Israel, at considerable cost to itself, rode out the storm and Presidents Anwar Sadat and Hafez al-Assad would remain in power. In the end Arab nationalism had been sated - minus the all but forgotten Palestinians of course. Needless to say, the specter of what would ultimately be known as Radical Islam was still in its infancy. Allah certainly does work in mysterious ways. Well, that's my latest two cents worth on this hypothetical topic interest - for now anyway. As always, I would like to bid a copacetic day over in your corner of the ever fractious Balkans.

Best Regards,
Uncle Bob