If WW1 had continued into 1919 and 1920 would those years have resembled WW2 more than 1914-16?

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pugsville
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Re: If WW1 had continued into 1919 and 1920 would those years have resembled WW2 more than 1914-16?

#106

Post by pugsville » 18 Nov 2017, 23:00

Plain Old Dave wrote:"And then the convoy system was introduced and that was the end of that."

You're assuming it would be. Asking a bit much of one of the least militarily inventive nations on Earth, hmm?
The convoy system WAS introduced it was Historical fact. There is no need to assume it would be, it WAS.

The Convoy system was also discussed it was just the resources for providing escorts was the counter argument. But was it was virtually the only available option and pressure from various places was mounting. It had many supporters both within and without the navy.

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Re: If WW1 had continued into 1919 and 1920 would those years have resembled WW2 more than 1914-16?

#107

Post by Aber » 19 Nov 2017, 14:58

Plain Old Dave wrote: Asking a bit much of one of the least militarily inventive nations on Earth
Some evidence is needed to support that claim...


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Re: If WW1 had continued into 1919 and 1920 would those years have resembled WW2 more than 1914-16?

#108

Post by The Ibis » 19 Nov 2017, 17:16

Aber wrote:
Plain Old Dave wrote: Asking a bit much of one of the least militarily inventive nations on Earth
Some evidence is needed to support that claim...
He'll quote Mosier or worse. He won't bother with Aimée Fox's work. Her dissertation, 'Putting Knowledge in Power': learning and innovation in the British Army of the First World War, is online. She has a book coming out entitled next month Learning to Fight: Military Innovation and Change in the British Army, 1914-1918, which I assume is a repackaged version of the dissertation. She speaks frequently. Here is one lecture.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rnpZZnFb964

Last edited by The Ibis on 19 Nov 2017, 23:47, edited 1 time in total.
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T. A. Gardner
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Re: If WW1 had continued into 1919 and 1920 would those years have resembled WW2 more than 1914-16?

#109

Post by T. A. Gardner » 19 Nov 2017, 21:53

Ugg... Mosier... Does it get worse than that?

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Re: If WW1 had continued into 1919 and 1920 would those years have resembled WW2 more than 1914-16?

#110

Post by Plain Old Dave » 19 Nov 2017, 22:36

Aber wrote:
Plain Old Dave wrote: Asking a bit much of one of the least militarily inventive nations on Earth
Some evidence is needed to support that claim...
-Seven Years War
-American Revolution
-New Orleans
-All the slaughters of WW1

Other: Sims unequivocally states that the British couldn't have adopted the convoy system without the USN as they lacked the ships to do it with.

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Re: If WW1 had continued into 1919 and 1920 would those years have resembled WW2 more than 1914-16?

#111

Post by Plain Old Dave » 19 Nov 2017, 22:40

T. A. Gardner wrote:Ugg... Mosier... Does it get worse than that?
He's almost the only NON-Euromaniacal author to write about the World War since the Jazz Age.

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Re: If WW1 had continued into 1919 and 1920 would those years have resembled WW2 more than 1914-16?

#112

Post by T. A. Gardner » 20 Nov 2017, 01:53

He's also a horridly bad historian.

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Re: If WW1 had continued into 1919 and 1920 would those years have resembled WW2 more than 1914-16?

#113

Post by pugsville » 20 Nov 2017, 03:16

Plain Old Dave wrote:
Aber wrote:
Plain Old Dave wrote:
Other: Sims unequivocally states that the British couldn't have adopted the convoy system without the USN as they lacked the ships to do it with.
Source , quote page number.

They manifestly did have enough ships , how many destroyers to the USN contribute>? how many destroyers did the RN have not committed to convoy duty.

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Re: If WW1 had continued into 1919 and 1920 would those years have resembled WW2 more than 1914-16?

#114

Post by Plain Old Dave » 20 Nov 2017, 04:01

Sims, The Victory At Sea, 37-39.

For starters.

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Re: If WW1 had continued into 1919 and 1920 would those years have resembled WW2 more than 1914-16?

#115

Post by BDV » 20 Nov 2017, 06:08

Plain Old Dave wrote:Sims, The Victory At Sea, 37-39.

For starters.

What does he say, exactly
Nobody expects the Fallschirm! Our chief weapon is surprise; surprise and fear; fear and surprise. Our 2 weapons are fear and surprise; and ruthless efficiency. Our *3* weapons are fear, surprise, and ruthless efficiency; and almost fanatical devotion

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Re: If WW1 had continued into 1919 and 1920 would those years have resembled WW2 more than 1914-16?

#116

Post by Plain Old Dave » 21 Nov 2017, 02:27

You people want quotes? Here you go. The plain truth is the United States was KEY to Allied victory in WW1, and there was no path to victory for the Allies without the US' involvement in 1917.

Preface: Article 1534 of the US Navy Regulations of 1913 required formal permission from the Department of the Navy for publications such as The Victory At Sea. Permission was formally granted by Secretary of the Navy Josephus Daniels to ADM Sims on 26 June 1919 (Appendix 1, p. 371; includes the text of Article 1534, Navy Regs).

Sims was then serving as President of the Naval War College, the US Navy's premier postgraduate school for warfighting at sea. Sims' book can reasonably therefore be considered an official, approved opinion of the United States Government.
In 1917, it (the RN) did not possess destroyers enough to both guard the main fighting fleet and protect its commerce from submarines
Page 36.
I (Sims) do not think the number (of British destroyers) engaged (in escort duty) ever exceeded fifteen.
Page 40.
Briefly stated, I consider that at the present moment (April 1917) we are losing the war.
Page 43.

By 5 July 1917, 34 US Destroyers were deployed at Queenstown. Additionally the destroyer tender Melville was deployed. Page 76.

Appendices 8 and 9 (pp. 400-401) show the success of the German U-Boat campaign and concurrent failure of Allied shipbuilders to make good on U-Boat losses. I would reproduce the chart, however the full original book is available on Google Books. I have an identical reprint from the mid 1980s, published by the Naval Institute Press.

In brief:

1) The Allies had insufficient ships to adequately protect shipping in the Spring of 1917 and were therefore losing the war at sea through the successful German U-Boat campaign.

2) Escort duty was almost exclusively an American show; ADM Sims was the first officer in the history of the RN to be placed in command of British sailors as Senior Officer Present Afloat at Queenstown (82).

Conclusions:

Without the US Navy, the Allies would lose the war by late Summer 1917. Russia was in chaos, nearly a million casualties had broken the French and the British would be unable to continue without a merchant marine; the German High Command could do math.

WITH the USN and the AEF, it is very difficult to see any plausible scenario prolonging the war past the fall of 1918. Again, the Germans could do math and the virtually bottomless pool of manpower provided by a nation of somewhere in the neighborhood of 100 Million souls that proved they could and would fight at Cantigny, the Belleau Wood and the Argonne was an insurmountable strategic and tactical advantage for the Allied and Associated Powers.

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Re: If WW1 had continued into 1919 and 1920 would those years have resembled WW2 more than 1914-16?

#117

Post by pugsville » 21 Nov 2017, 03:50

Plain Old Dave wrote:
2) Escort duty was almost exclusively an American show; ADM Sims was the first officer in the history of the RN to be placed in command of British sailors as Senior Officer Present Afloat at Queenstown (82).
Exclusively an American Show.

Sept 1917 66 British destroyers were engaged in convoys escort duties , 36 American.

http://www.naval-history.net/WW1Book-RN5a.htm

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Re: If WW1 had continued into 1919 and 1920 would those years have resembled WW2 more than 1914-16?

#118

Post by pugsville » 21 Nov 2017, 03:57

pugsville wrote:
Plain Old Dave wrote:
2) Escort duty was almost exclusively an American show; ADM Sims was the first officer in the history of the RN to be placed in command of British sailors as Senior Officer Present Afloat at Queenstown (82).
Exclusively an American Show.

Sept 1917 66 British destroyers were engaged in convoys escort duties , 36 American.

http://www.naval-history.net/WW1Book-RN5a.htm

The Royal Navy had some 200 Destroyers as well as French, Japanese and others. There was a fetish of protecting the Grand Fleet which British Admirals were very reluctant to move deterrers from, but the Idea the Britain would lose the war before moving some extra Destroyers to escort duty is farcical.

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Re: If WW1 had continued into 1919 and 1920 would those years have resembled WW2 more than 1914-16?

#119

Post by Plain Old Dave » 21 Nov 2017, 04:13

Context, context, context. PAGE 82, not 82 destroyers.
By 5 July 1917, 34 US Destroyers were deployed at Queenstown. Additionally the destroyer tender Melville was deployed. Page 76.
Read the book for yourself; it's on Google Books. Given " a division nearly every week," A USN division being four destroyers, and given at some point ADM Sims must have decided he had enough I think a reasonable assumption is 50-60 tops. With him never recollecting more than 15 RN destroyers assigned to escort duty that means that at any given time there were more than twice as many USN DDs on convoy duty as RN DDs. I stand by my assertions.

Without the Convoy system, Germany was winning the war.

Britain did not have enough destroyers to support both the Grand Fleet and convoy duty; ADM Sims never recalled more than 15 RN destroyers at any time at Queenstown.

There were at least 34 USN destroyers at Queenstown; convoy duty was a primarily American show as there were at least twice as many American DDs escorting convoys at any given time as British DDs.

The United States Navy was therefore essential to the success of the convoy system.

Once the AEF was landed in France, the Allied and Associated Powers had an insurmountable manpower advantage on land. France was broken and mutinied, Russia was in chaos, and Britain was weeks from being forced out of the war. And there were 100 MILLION Americans, itching to go "Over There."

Once again, for the record: Before American involvement, the Allies were unquestionably losing the war. The Germans were very good at math. With American involvement, it is VERY difficult to see any path to continuing the war past the Fall of 1918. Again, the Germans were VERY good at math.
Last edited by Plain Old Dave on 21 Nov 2017, 04:39, edited 1 time in total.

pugsville
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Re: If WW1 had continued into 1919 and 1920 would those years have resembled WW2 more than 1914-16?

#120

Post by pugsville » 21 Nov 2017, 04:25

Plain Old Dave wrote:Context, context, context. PAGE 82, not 82 destroyers. Read the book for yourself. It's on Google Books.
It's also downloadable on the internet archive.

My point was the only 1/3 of the Destroyers involved were American, How does your claim work ? "Escort duty was almost exclusively an American show"

Do you really think Britain would bot allocate more destroyers and ships to convoys in the absence of US destroyers?

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