If Hitler stays on China's side during Sino-Japanese war?

[Garuda]

What if Nazi Germany foresaw that the alliance with Japan wasn't that beneficial and decides to still support China?

[T. A. Gardner]

With what?

Aside from that, once Britain, Russia, and the US are at war with Germany the point is moot as the Germans have zero means to deliver any aid.

[Garuda]

With what?

Weapons.

Aside from that, once Britain, Russia, and the US are at war with Germany the point is moot as the Germans have zero means to deliver any aid.

That's what I'm here to discuss isn't it? Of what could happen had Germany decided to stay on China's side in 1938 and what role China may play ( like what you said) once Britain is at war with Germany.

[BDV]

You need to put some meat on that skeleton (you have the "foresaw alliance wasn't that beneficial" - but, then, what is THAT in itself supposed to mean), but it's not enough.

Timeline, departure points what do you think will happen differently (or where do you lose the track in ATL), etc.

Otherwise is trolling

[Garuda]

You need to put some meat on that skeleton (you have the "foresaw alliance wasn't that beneficial" - but, then, what is THAT in itself supposed to mean), but it's not enough.

Timeline, departure points what do you think will happen differently (or where do you lose the track in ATL), etc.

Otherwise is trolling

Ok. Here goes.During the Sino-Japanese war Nazi Germany would try to mediate between Japan and China(Trautmann mediation). Japan is stubborn and still wants to take over China. Hitler comes to the realization that Japan cares more about pursuing their own goals and not really anti-communist goals since they are attacking the anti-communist Kuomintang. Hitler also realizes that China can provide more raw materials to Germany. So Germany's support for China continues and the relations with Japan worsens. Japan then blockades some ports to disrupt Sino-German trade. Here I'm already kind of lost since I can't guess what would happen next. Would WW2 happen with China on the Axis side or would China be kept busy in the war with Japan and have no reason to go to war with Germany's enemies (If the war in Europe happen in almost the same way as history)?

[Markus Becker]

It would have made sense. German trade with China was larger than with Japan. The Japanese were known to be protectionist, the Chinese weren't. And they kind a 'liked' Germany because Germany no longer controlled any Chinese territorry. Chiang was an anti communist too.

Until September 1939 Germany could have easily supported the KMT with instructors and industrial know-how. Afterwards too because Germany and the USSR had a de facto alliance until June 1941.

[Garuda]

Until September 1939 Germany could have easily supported the KMT with instructors and industrial know-how.

When Hitler invades Poland in 1939 following the timeline you suggested, is it possible that France and Britain might demand that China cuts close ties with Germany?

[Markus Becker]

Sure but why would the KMT care? It's not like the two lifted a finger for China. Theoretically they could close their colonial borders and thus cut China off from outside supply but that would not go well with the USA. Besides,...

edit: What happens in China between the 3rd Reich and the KMT has no effect direct on the war in Europe, hasn't it. Especially not after September 39.

[Garuda]

Yeah, the US could still support China(against Japan) while China maintains close relations with Germany at the same time.Final question; if one day the US and Germany finally go to war, wouldn't China have to choose between the two? What do you think the outcome would be?

I can just imagine documentaries in today's world that would be condemning China non-stop the same way they did Japan if China joins the Axis(and lost the war).

[Markus Becker]

Easy answer: the USA. After the German attack on the USSR how could Germany even get individuals from and to China? Oh, wait. That means German instructors and trainers are pretty much stuck. If I had some say in the KMT I'd recommend to offer them employment. Discreetly and by private companies.

BTW, one of the aircraft meachanics of the Flying Tigers was a German national.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gerhard_Neumann

[ljadw]

It would have made sense. German trade with China was larger than with Japan. The Japanese were known to be protectionist, the Chinese weren't. And they kind a 'liked' Germany because Germany no longer controlled any Chinese territorry. Chiang was an anti communist too.

Until September 1939 Germany could have easily supported the KMT with instructors and industrial know-how. Afterwards too because Germany and the USSR had a de facto alliance until June 1941.

On 3 september 1939 a German freighter was going to China with weapons for the KMT and London ordered the RN to let it pass .

That does not mean, as the OP is saying, that Germany was staying on China's side , but that Germany did business with the KMT,because the $ of the KMT were as good as these of Japan .

That Chiang was an anti-communist was not a compelling reason : Germany did also business with the SU and with Japan, in fact : with everybody .
The German arms dediveries were helping Chiang, but,without them, Chiand would continue the fighting .

[thaddeus_c]

at the time China lost their capital city they were considered a failed state? and the prospect was there to continue trade with Manchukuo puppet regime (via Soviet railway) while Japan added a naval superpower?

possibly there could be German-Japanese conflict over the colonies of France and Netherlands?

"During negotiations, the government in Vichy asked the German government to intervene to moderate its ally's (Japan) demands. The Germans did not do anything. Decoux and Martin, acting on their own, looked for help from the American and British consuls in Hanoi, and even consulted with the Chinese government on joint defence against a Japanese attack on Indochina."

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Japanese_ ... _Indochina

Nazi regime might decide to assert some claim over the conquered nations' colonies (an actual Japanese concern at the time) and enlist KMT China in at least some joint defense operations?

[Garuda]

at the time China lost their capital city they were considered a failed state? and the prospect was there to continue trade with Manchukuo puppet regime (via Soviet railway) while Japan added a naval superpower?

possibly there could be German-Japanese conflict over the colonies of France and Netherlands?

"During negotiations, the government in Vichy asked the German government to intervene to moderate its ally's (Japan) demands. The Germans did not do anything. Decoux and Martin, acting on their own, looked for help from the American and British consuls in Hanoi, and even consulted with the Chinese government on joint defence against a Japanese attack on Indochina."

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Japanese_ ... _Indochina

Nazi regime might decide to assert some claim over the conquered nations' colonies (an actual Japanese concern at the time) and enlist KMT China in at least some joint defense operations?

Possible. Once the Nazis controlled Northern France in 1940, it is possible that Germany might claim Indochina(France's colony). And Japan might just occupy Indochina without caring how the Germans feel about it. If Japan and Germany's relationship had already been strained because of the sino-japanese war that is.

[T. A. Gardner]

It would have made sense. German trade with China was larger than with Japan. The Japanese were known to be protectionist, the Chinese weren't. And they kind a 'liked' Germany because Germany no longer controlled any Chinese territorry. Chiang was an anti communist too.

Until September 1939 Germany could have easily supported the KMT with instructors and industrial know-how. Afterwards too because Germany and the USSR had a de facto alliance until June 1941.

On 3 september 1939 a German freighter was going to China with weapons for the KMT and London ordered the RN to let it pass .

That does not mean, as the OP is saying, that Germany was staying on China's side , but that Germany did business with the KMT,because the $ of the KMT were as good as these of Japan .

That Chiang was an anti-communist was not a compelling reason : Germany did also business with the SU and with Japan, in fact : with everybody .
The German arms dediveries were helping Chiang, but,without them, Chiand would continue the fighting .

Well, by the beginning of 1940, the British were taking a different position:

http://www.lancaster.ac.uk/staff/ecagrs ... Dunham.pdf

The RN cruiser HMS Liverpool, forced under threat of gunfire, the Japanese ocean liner Asama Maru to halt and allow the British navy to board. Once aboard, the British detained and removed 21 German passengers on the ship claiming they were "enemy combatants," declaring them prisoners of war. So, I'd bet the Germans wouldn't be sending any more support by sea once the invasion of Poland occurred.

I don't know if the Soviets would have allowed flow of materials to China via Russia, but given the state of land transportation at that time it's highly unlikely the Germans could send anything by that method in any case.

This pretty much means an end to German support come September 1939.

[South]

Good afternoon Garuda,

Re: "the anti-communist Kuomintang";

The KMT did have a secret component that was antagonistic to the KMT.

~ Bob
eastern Virginia, USA