If Hitler stays on China's side during Sino-Japanese war?

[Markus Becker]

I don't know if the Soviets would have allowed flow of materials to China via Russia, but given the state of land transportation at that time it's highly unlikely the Germans could send anything by that method in any case.

This pretty much means an end to German support come September 1939.

Even before September 39 Germany could hardly sent arms to China on a scale that the Chinese military needs because Germany was short of all sorts of weapons itself. That's why I said the Germans need to provide the Chinese industry with machine tools, instructors and so on.

[T. A. Gardner]

I don't know if the Soviets would have allowed flow of materials to China via Russia, but given the state of land transportation at that time it's highly unlikely the Germans could send anything by that method in any case.

This pretty much means an end to German support come September 1939.

Even before September 39 Germany could hardly sent arms to China on a scale that the Chinese military needs because Germany was short of all sorts of weapons itself. That's why I said the Germans need to provide the Chinese industry with machine tools, instructors and so on.

Agreed, but they did send some equipment:

[thaddeus_c]

Gen. von Seeckt https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hans_von_Seeckt advised collaboration with USSR and China, cannot say his theories were disproved by WWII.

[Carl Schwamberger]

Its not a uncommon trope in the alternate history genre. China as a Axis nation, Japan with the Allies. That one favors the Allies it appears. A Soviet/German team kind of requires waiving away the nazis

[BDV]

Germany was at odds with AngloFrance (and US) over Europe;

Japan was at odds with US (and AngloFrance) over China and Induchina

So, it's only reasonable for the two to try hang together rather than hang separately.

Had they eschewed cooperation, the whatif today would be "What if Japan would have joined the Axis?", and history books would play the ATL developments as US defeating its foes one at a time.

Japan and Germany need more, not less cooperation, imo.

[ljadw]

Both Germany and the SU sent war material to the KMT.

Germany for 82,788 million of RM in 1937,for financial reasons.

The SU sent between 1937 and 1941 9OO aircraft, 1000 pieces of artillery,82 tanks and 10000 MG, for political reasons .

But its importance was very relative ; when the Germans stopped in 1939, the SU stopped in 1941, the KMT did not collaps .

[T. A. Gardner]

Its not a uncommon trope in the alternate history genre. China as a Axis nation, Japan with the Allies. That one favors the Allies it appears. A Soviet/German team kind of requires waiving away the nazis

It greatly favors Japan.

[Carl Schwamberger]

Amen

[thaddeus_c]

Its not a uncommon trope in the alternate history genre. China as a Axis nation, Japan with the Allies. That one favors the Allies it appears. A Soviet/German team kind of requires waiving away the nazis

a German/Soviet team in the manner of German/Japanese team might be possible? i.e. not really an alliance

especially if, for instance, the Allies struck out at USSR and/or British moved into Iran?

[Carl Schwamberger]

a German/Soviet team in the manner of German/Japanese team might be possible? i.e. not really an alliance

...

There was a German Soviet team. Actually twice. In both cases the nazis racial doctrines and conquest objectives made continuation possible. To get a true team requires the nazis not be nazis.

In long term global strategy German China alliance makes more sense than with the USSR or Japan.

[thaddeus_c]

a German/Soviet team in the manner of German/Japanese team might be possible? i.e. not really an alliance

...

There was a German Soviet team. Actually twice. In both cases the nazis racial doctrines and conquest objectives made continuation possible. To get a true team requires the nazis not be nazis.

In long term global strategy German China alliance makes more sense than with the USSR or Japan.

the Nazi leadership was mercurial, their ideology more than occasionally opportunistic, and governing style like a crime family.

think the Soviets pushed too many sensitive areas in negotiations to join Axis at precise time Germans had victory disease from conquering France ... include in this the advance into more of Romania than agreed (THAT was certainly a brush across Hitler's throat)

Lure of Neptune about German-Soviet illustrates the Soviets were both interested in and capable of collaboration. Soviets (Stalin) had delusions of a great fleet which Germany should have agreed to aid with ... would there be ANY more foolish strategy for Soviets to pursue? drains their resources and causes friction with naval powers GB and Japan.

Germans could have banked resources, traded with China thru USSR, and hopefully involved Soviets in shooting war (with others.)

[Carl Schwamberger]

possibly there could be German-Japanese conflict over the colonies of France and Netherlands?

"During negotiations, the government in Vichy asked the German government to intervene to moderate its ally's (Japan) demands. The Germans did not do anything. Decoux and Martin, acting on their own, looked for help from the American and British consuls in Hanoi, and even consulted with the Chinese government on joint defence against a Japanese attack on Indochina."

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Japanese_ ... _Indochina

Nazi regime might decide to assert some claim over the conquered nations' colonies (an actual Japanese concern at the time) and enlist KMT China in at least some joint defense operations?

...
Possible. Once the Nazis controlled Northern France in 1940, it is possible that Germany might claim Indochina(France's colony). And Japan might just occupy Indochina without caring how the Germans feel about it. If Japan and Germany's relationship had already been strained because of the sino-japanese war that is.

I'm surprised no one has run with the implications here. The Franco German Armistice required the French allow no foreign military into its colonies, & that the French defend them. Thats why the colonial armies had tanks, motor transport, and aircraft when all that was denied the Metropolitan French army. However when the Japanese inquired with the Germans about taking military bases in FIC, permission was given.

In this situation where Germany wants to support China then allowing the Japanese into FIC closes the Haiphong port and Red River route to KMT territory. So a Japanese occupation of FIC either does not happen, or it expands Japanese/German tensions. If no Japanese entry into FIC then no US/Brit embargo & Japanese bank accounts/asset freeze. So, no failed negotiations and no Pacific war in 1942...

That has enormous implications for US entry into the European war and subsequent operations.

[Kingfish]

In this situation where Germany wants to support China then allowing the Japanese into FIC closes the Haiphong port and Red River route to KMT territory. So a Japanese occupation of FIC either does not happen, or it expands Japanese/German tensions.

The latter would occur.

Above all else, the overriding goal for the Japanese was the capture of the SE Asian oilfields, something they were willing to go to war against the US and Commonwealth to achieve. I seriously doubt a denial of FIC bases would have deterred the Japanese.

[Markus Becker]

In this situation where Germany wants to support China then allowing the Japanese into FIC closes the Haiphong port and Red River route to KMT territory. So a Japanese occupation of FIC either does not happen, or it expands Japanese/German tensions.

The latter would occur.

Above all else, the overriding goal for the Japanese was the capture of the SE Asian oilfields, something they were willing to go to war against the US and Commonwealth to achieve. I seriously doubt a denial of FIC bases would have deterred the Japanese.

Eventually but at first the plan was just to blockade China. Japan controlled the Chinese coast, so arms were importred via FIC. Thus the Japanese tried to take the Chinese province bordering FIC. That turned out to be much harder than expected and when France fell they invaded the north of FIC as an easy alternative. That triggered a new and harsh round of sanctions.

[thaddeus_c]

possibly there could be German-Japanese conflict over the colonies of France and Netherlands?

"During negotiations, the government in Vichy asked the German government to intervene to moderate its ally's (Japan) demands. The Germans did not do anything. Decoux and Martin, acting on their own, looked for help from the American and British consuls in Hanoi, and even consulted with the Chinese government on joint defence against a Japanese attack on Indochina."

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Japanese_ ... _Indochina

Nazi regime might decide to assert some claim over the conquered nations' colonies (an actual Japanese concern at the time) and enlist KMT China in at least some joint defense operations?

...
Possible. Once the Nazis controlled Northern France in 1940, it is possible that Germany might claim Indochina(France's colony). And Japan might just occupy Indochina without caring how the Germans feel about it.

I'm surprised no one has run with the implications here. The Franco German Armistice required the French allow no foreign military into its colonies, & that the French defend them. Thats why the colonial armies had tanks, motor transport, and aircraft when all that was denied the Metropolitan French army. However when the Japanese inquired with the Germans about taking military bases in FIC, permission was given.

In this situation where Germany wants to support China then allowing the Japanese into FIC closes the Haiphong port and Red River route to KMT territory. So a Japanese occupation of FIC either does not happen, or it expands Japanese/German tensions. If no Japanese entry into FIC then no US/Brit embargo & Japanese bank accounts/asset freeze. So, no failed negotiations and no Pacific war in 1942...

That has enormous implications for US entry into the European war and subsequent operations.

Carl are you pointing out the US could/would enter European war with full force or it delays US entry?

my scenario for continued Nazi collaboration with USSR probably impossible (although avoiding invasion might not be) however placing higher value on continued relations with Vichy regime might not be?

what could Germany actually do to affect events in the Pacific? (a redux of WWI) unless they have Soviet collaboration? send u-boats to Madagascar and/or Italian East Africa.