Japan delays Pearl Harbor, attacks USSR during the high point of Barbarossa

[TheMarcksPlan]

Is Japan still heavily involved in China and if so wouldn't that leave almost nothing for even diversionary attacks on the Russians?

OTL Japan built up in Manchuria for a possible attack/defense against the SU without drastic strategic consequence in China. The Wikipedia article is actually good, with extensive cites: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kantokuen.

[Richard Anderson]

Worse, the DEI and Philippines would be far better prepared for a Japanese invasion at that point. The US build up in the Philippines would be pretty much complete. That would put 10 Philippine Army infantry divisions in the field. The US Philippine Division would be a full strength triangular division. There would be US corps level troops including M3 light and medium tanks available. The USAAF would be between triple and quadruple the strength it was historically.

The main additions would have been artillery, with the Philippine Division equipped with 105mm howitzers and the ten Philippine divisions fully equipped with 75mm guns. I doubt they would have sent Medium Tanks M3 given the problems the Light Tanks M3 had in using Philippine roads and bridges.

Given that the "Two-Ocean Navy" plan would still be running I'd suspect that the Asiatic Fleet gets reinforced with additional surface units and submarines.

I don't believe there was any serious plans for anything other than additional submarines?

The DEI would have about 750,000 troops rather than the about 80,000 they had historically as they were mobilizing even in mid 1941. They'd also have nearly 1,000 light tanks (and given what the Japanese have for tanks even ones with nothing more than a .50 M2 Browning would be sufficient to fight them, if a bit light as a weapon) many with 37mm high velocity guns on them. They'd also have a large number of locally produced armored trucks and armored cars along with imported vehicles like the US M3 Scout Car.
The DEI would be a much tougher nut to crack.

Um, no, the KNIL was never going to mobilize three quarters of a million troops. Its peacetime strength was just under 36,000 with a fully mobilized strength of 76,200. The plans for the five or six mobile AFV "brigades" intended to man them by drawing from the existing infantry force, so it was not really an expansion. Yes, they ordered 70 Vickers Carden-Loyd commercial light tanks, but only got 20, since the rest were held by the British government. They also ordered 680 Marmon-Herrington light tanks, 234 machine gun-armed CTLS, 194 37mm-armed CTMS, and 200 twin 37mm-armed MTLS. The problem is, they were all basically crap. Marmon-Herrington could not get 37mm M5/M6 guns since they were priority to US Army Ordnance programs, so they went to the Miranda Brothers American Armaments Corporation to supply the guns (they also bought 204 of the National Forge and Ordnance Company 37mm AT guns, which apparently was a subsidiary of AAC). None of those qualified as "high velocity guns", they were a 44-caliber gun using a mediocre 37 x 202R cartridge based on the McClean (Maklen)-Driggs gun. The worst problem was that Marmon-Herrington was horribly slow completing the tanks...by mid 1942 most of the CTLS order may have arrived - all 234 were complete by 1 January 1942 - but the CTMS and MTLS were badly delayed, mostly apparently due to supply problems with the Miranda brothers AAC guns. At least 115 and possibly all 194 of the CTMS were eventually completed, but not until mid-September 1942. Only 125 of the MTLS order were completed...in March 1943. It is unlikely the KNIL would have had sufficient time for them to arrive and allow them to get some training on the CTMS and MTLS before the Japanese delayed attack. All of which is probably moot since the tanks and guns were so bad.

They also ordered 200 Light Tanks M3, which would have been the best thing they had, since they stood a good chance of actually being delivered and working. However, 200 working light tanks and the equivalent of maybe 20 infantry battalions scattered over the Indonesian Archipelago probably wouldn't have made much difference.

[T. A. Gardner]

The main additions would have been artillery, with the Philippine Division equipped with 105mm howitzers and the ten Philippine divisions fully equipped with 75mm guns. I doubt they would have sent Medium Tanks M3 given the problems the Light Tanks M3 had in using Philippine roads and bridges.

True. But the additions included quite a bit of coast artillery that would have ended up covering the landing sites the Japanese used. Given the ineffectiveness of IJN shore bombardment, a battery of 155mm guns on Panama mounts could have made serious problems for the transports anchoring off shore.

I don't believe there was any serious plans for anything other than additional submarines?

There weren't, but I'd guess once the Navy had more modern DD's in the water they would have likely sent another squadron or two of four pipers. Another Omaha class could have been sent being replaced by a modern cruiser that completed or was near completion. There's no reason the USN wouldn't have sent at least additional small units as well. Additional PT boats, subchasers, and the like would have definitely been sent.
It all adds up.

Um, no, the KNIL was never going to mobilize three quarters of a million troops. Its peacetime strength was just under 36,000 with a fully mobilized strength of 76,200. The plans for the five or six mobile AFV "brigades" intended to man them by drawing from the existing infantry force, so it was not really an expansion. Yes, they ordered 70 Vickers Carden-Loyd commercial light tanks, but only got 20, since the rest were held by the British government. They also ordered 680 Marmon-Herrington light tanks, 234 machine gun-armed CTLS, 194 37mm-armed CTMS, and 200 twin 37mm-armed MTLS. The problem is, they were all basically crap. Marmon-Herrington could not get 37mm M5/M6 guns since they were priority to US Army Ordnance programs, so they went to the Miranda Brothers American Armaments Corporation to supply the guns (they also bought 204 of the National Forge and Ordnance Company 37mm AT guns, which apparently was a subsidiary of AAC). None of those qualified as "high velocity guns", they were a 44-caliber gun using a mediocre 37 x 202R cartridge based on the McClean (Maklen)-Driggs gun. The worst problem was that Marmon-Herrington was horribly slow completing the tanks...by mid 1942 most of the CTLS order may have arrived - all 234 were complete by 1 January 1942 - but the CTMS and MTLS were badly delayed, mostly apparently due to supply problems with the Miranda brothers AAC guns. At least 115 and possibly all 194 of the CTMS were eventually completed, but not until mid-September 1942. Only 125 of the MTLS order were completed...in March 1943. It is unlikely the KNIL would have had sufficient time for them to arrive and allow them to get some training on the CTMS and MTLS before the Japanese delayed attack. All of which is probably moot since the tanks and guns were so bad.

They also ordered 200 Light Tanks M3, which would have been the best thing they had, since they stood a good chance of actually being delivered and working. However, 200 working light tanks and the equivalent of maybe 20 infantry battalions scattered over the Indonesian Archipelago probably wouldn't have made much difference.

The way I've read it they were at about 85,000 troops when the war broke out, mostly in battalion sized dispositions across the DEI. The intent was to greatly increase that number but they were doing it as equipment came available.
Sure, the Dutch tanks were mostly pretty crappy, but then the Japanese tanks they'd have faced were equally crappy. And, they wouldn't have faced hundreds of them, more likely tens and such at a time. So, I wouldn't discount the tanks that the Dutch ordered as incapable given the poor quality and limited numbers of Japanese tanks they faced.

I'd also say that here, with the US holding the PI-- there's little doubt that fully mobilized the Japanese were doomed trying to take the PI-- that they'd have less to throw at the DEI. I could see them managing to get ashore in the PI then tossing in more and more units to try and win a losing situation.

[HistoryGeek2019]

Even if Japan successfully conquered the Soviet far east, in the long-run Japan will still lose to the United States. When that happens, Vladivostok will be opened to aid from the United States, and whatever regime is left in Russia will do everything it can to earn the favor of the United States so that it can receive American aid through Vladivostok. Which means that even if Russia is knocked out of the war early by a combined German/Japanese alliance, eventually it will re-enter the war supported by the United States through Vladivostok.

[OpanaPointer]

The Soviet plan was to fall back behind the Ural Mountains, right? Could the Wehrmacht control all the USSR west of those mountains and still penetrate them and defeat the Red Army?

[ljadw]

In post 101,TMP writes that the average SU citizen was surviving on state rations below emergency subsistence norms,albeit supplemented by informal channels (potato gardens and black market ) .
This is wrong : as in the occupied countries from WWII the average citizen of the SU survived on informal channels as black market and potato gardens, because the Soviet state admitted on June 22 that it could not feed its population, as admitted the administrations of other countries during the war .
The food of the black market and the potato gardens was ,some times,but that was an exception, supplemented by state rations .State rations were mostly not available and if the Soviet population had to survive on state rations, dozens of millions would have died . And we know that this did not happen .
The Soviet population feeded itself,this is admitted by Moskoff .
Official rations were as electoral promises .
The number of calories from official rations is only theory.

[ljadw]

The Soviet plan was to fall back behind the Ural Mountains, right? Could the Wehrmacht control all the USSR west of those mountains and still penetrate them and defeat the Red Army?

NO :
1 In the Barbarossa Weising it is explicitly mentioned that a big part of the USSR west of the Urals would not be occupied .
2 It is also explicitly mentioned that if the Soviets continued the war using the Urals, the Ostheer would not go east of the Volga to the Urals, but that the Urals factories would be attacked by the LW ,while the ground forces would remain west of the Volga .
3 As the Germans would/could not cross the Volga, there was no reason for the Soviets to fall back behind the Urals: they could fall back behind the Volga .

[OpanaPointer]

I was positing a worst case scenario in my case. Thanks for your info. I was weak on the specifics.

[Robert Rojas]

Greetings to both citizen ljadw and the community as a whole. Howdy ljadw! Well sir, in light of your posting of Sunday - November 03, 2019 - 6:45am, old yours truly would like to add my voice in concurrence with your observations concerning the secondary and tertiary methods how folks in the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics managed to feed themselves under the most adverse conditions of food insecurity. After all, since Czarist times anyway, this is a culture where privation and eeking out a hardscrabble existence was (and is) just a part of daily life. It is amazing just how far potatoes, cabbage and beets will go! Incidentally, it is refreshing to observe that NOT everyone is crassly genuflecting to the musings of Herr General Oberst Erich Marcks. Well, that's my latest two Yankee cents worth on this now meandering topic of interest - for now anyway. As always, I would like to bid you an especially copacetic day no matter where you just might happen to find yourself on Terra Firma.

Best Regards,
Uncle Bob

[TheMarcksPlan]

it is refreshing to observe that NOT everyone is crassly genuflecting to the musings of Herr General Oberst Erich Marcks.

Uncle Bob, why this sudden eruption of hostility from you?

Wishing you a copacetic day and not at all hostile to you posting your musings nor requesting genuflection on mine.

[Robert Rojas]

Greetings to both brother Opana Pointer and the community as a whole. Howdy O.P.! Well sir, in light of your posting of Sunday - November 03, 2019 - 6:23am, old yours truly will also stand in concurrence with citizen ljadw's commentary as articulated within his posting of Sunday - November 03, 2019 - 6:51am. Unless the all knowing Bohemian Corporal gets a bug up his ass about acquiring so much more real estate, I, for one, do NOT foresee the all conquering Wehrmacht lurching across the fabled Arkhangeslsk-Astrakhan demarcation line with the intent of seeking combat with the surviving remnants of the Soviet Military Establishment with the pointless purpose of consolidating the Third Reich's geopolitical position between the shore of the Atlantic Ocean up to the literal gateway to Siberia. As it is, victory brings about as many problems as does defeat. The erstwhile military and political planners back in ever comfortable Berlin will have to figure out how the machinery of state will GARRISON and ADMINISTER the newly acquired "living space" between the Volga River and the foothills of the Ural Mountain Range. Would there be enough Bulgarians, Finns, Germans, Hungarians, Italians, Romanians, Slovaks and miscellaneous "European Volunteers" to get the job done WITHOUT creating an environment which would breed wholesale partisan activity? Yes, there is always much more to these things that meets the eye that even self-assured wargaming staff officers cannot adequately predict with any degree of absolute certainty. Well, that's my latest two Yankee cents worth on this now meandering topic of interest - for now anyway. As always, I would like to bid you an especially copacetic day over in your corner of the SHOW ME State of Missouri.

Best Regards,
Uncle Bob

P.S. - I have no idea how often you are allowed to escape from your V.A. Facility, BUT I was wondering if you were going to take the opportunity to see the latest celluloid reincarnation of the movie MIDWAY which is suppose to make its theatric debut on OR about the week of November 08? I would love to read your critique of the film.

[Richard Anderson]

True. But the additions included quite a bit of coast artillery that would have ended up covering the landing sites the Japanese used. Given the ineffectiveness of IJN shore bombardment, a battery of 155mm guns on Panama mounts could have made serious problems for the transports anchoring off shore.

The late-1941 reinforcement included 24 155mm guns, without FC equipment, sent to the Commonwealth to emplace to cover the Verde Island Passage, San Bernadino Strait, Camigao Channel, Cebu Strait, Tanon Strait, Guimaras Strait, and Tablas Strait, creating a protected inland sea for the Sibuyan Sea. In mid-November MacArthur requested 4 12-inch and 4 8-inch railway guns and 22 more 155mm guns to complete this scheme.

Do you see the faults in that scheme? None of the places envisaged covered the Japanese landing sites in any way shape or form. There were simply too many places the Japanese could land.

Anyway, IRL the Lingayen Gulf landings were opposed by four 155mm guns of the 86th FA (PS), but they hit nothing.

There weren't, but I'd guess once the Navy had more modern DD's in the water they would have likely sent another squadron or two of four pipers. Another Omaha class could have been sent being replaced by a modern cruiser that completed or was near completion. There's no reason the USN wouldn't have sent at least additional small units as well. Additional PT boats, subchasers, and the like would have definitely been sent.
It all adds up.

What kind of opposition is an additional squadron or two of elderly four-pipers going to do? The Philippines Covering Unit included three heavy cruisers, five light cruisers, and thirty DD, along with a CVL, seaplane tenders, and strong land-based naval and army air support.

The way I've read it they were at about 85,000 troops when the war broke out, mostly in battalion sized dispositions across the DEI. The intent was to greatly increase that number but they were doing it as equipment came available.
Sure, the Dutch tanks were mostly pretty crappy, but then the Japanese tanks they'd have faced were equally crappy. And, they wouldn't have faced hundreds of them, more likely tens and such at a time. So, I wouldn't discount the tanks that the Dutch ordered as incapable given the poor quality and limited numbers of Japanese tanks they faced.

The KNIL modernization planning, for the five or six mechanized brigades began in 1934...by December 1941 they had gotten nowhere with them and only managed to cobble together an ad hoc company of about 22 CTLS that had arrived by the end of November. It was approaching near fully mobilized strength by 8 December because they began mobilizing on 30 November, based upon their own intelligence, but 76,200 was the KNIL's fully mobilized state, including regular forces, reservists, and militia (volunteers, militie, and landstrom). The "problem" was that Dutch believed only the white minority could provide reliable manpower, especially officers, which severely limited the manpower pool.

I'd also say that here, with the US holding the PI-- there's little doubt that fully mobilized the Japanese were doomed trying to take the PI-- that they'd have less to throw at the DEI. I could see them managing to get ashore in the PI then tossing in more and more units to try and win a losing situation.

I agree, a Japanese attack on the Philippines in mid to late 1942 would have been very different from what happened. By then the Philippine divisions should have been fully manned and equipped and so should have done much better...assuming of course that MacArthur was less bone-headed than in real life too.

[TheMarcksPlan]

In post 101,TMP writes that the average SU citizen was surviving on state rations below emergency subsistence norms,albeit supplemented by informal channels (potato gardens and black market ) .
This is wrong : as in the occupied countries from WWII the average citizen of the SU survived on informal channels as black market and potato gardens, because the Soviet state admitted on June 22 that it could not feed its population, as admitted the administrations of other countries during the war .
The food of the black market and the potato gardens was ,some times,but that was an exception, supplemented by state rations .State rations were mostly not available and if the Soviet population had to survive on state rations, dozens of millions would have died . And we know that this did not happen .
The Soviet population feeded itself,this is admitted by Moskoff .
Official rations were as electoral promises .
The number of calories from official rations is only theory.

Rations didn't cover the rural population - i.e. the producers from whom the state extracted rationed food.

From Barber and Harrison's "The Soviet Home Front 1941-1945":
"In 1942, about 62 million people received rationed bread." p.80
"69 percent [of calories] came from central or local government stocks." p.83

[OpanaPointer]

No first run movies for me for a while.

[TheMarcksPlan]

I'd also say that here, with the US holding the PI-- there's little doubt that fully mobilized the Japanese were doomed trying to take the PI-- that they'd have less to throw at the DEI. I could see them managing to get ashore in the PI then tossing in more and more units to try and win a losing situation.

I agree, a Japanese attack on the Philippines in mid to late 1942 would have been very different from what happened. By then the Philippine divisions should have been fully manned and equipped and so should have done much better...assuming of course that MacArthur was less bone-headed than in real life too.

I'd agree, assuming the U.S. is committed to fighting in the PI - i.e. that it sends the Pacific Fleet to ensure lines of communication. IRL we didn't do this until late 44; absent Midway is the U.S. really going to stick its neck out this far? Maybe if we win a Midway-type battle early in the war but we'd have been outnumbered in carriers pretty badly in later 1942. There's no guarantee that the IJN blunders into a disastrous ambush in every ATL. In non-ambush carrier battles the IJN came out slightly ahead of USN during 1942.

If the USN seeks a decisive fleet action around the PI in 1942 and loses badly (due to being outnumbered), that could push the timeline for naval superiority back into 1944. Seems more likely they behave similarly to OTL, with a desultory defense of the PI that costs the Japanese more time and blood but ends similarly.