Japan delays Pearl Harbor, attacks USSR during the high point of Barbarossa

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Re: Japan delays Pearl Harbor, attacks USSR during the high point of Barbarossa

#31

Post by OpanaPointer » 27 Oct 2019, 22:58

Yoshikawa's reports were what allowed Yamamoto to guarantee the big bag. If Husband E. Kimmel hadn't run the US Fleet on bankers' hours there wouldn't have been an attack on Pearl.
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Re: Japan delays Pearl Harbor, attacks USSR during the high point of Barbarossa

#32

Post by paulrward » 28 Oct 2019, 00:12

Hello All :

In # 29, Mr. Takao posted :
Are you aware of Japanese negotiation with the NEI between September, 1940 - June, 1941?
I don't think so.
The Japanese had been negotiating for eseentiaaly what you have written. Batavia pretty much turned down each and every offer.
Given Batavia's rejection of Japanese offers, Batavia's response to Hitler & the puppet Dutch government will most likely be a combination of "Go stuff yourself" and "Make us", all phrased diplomatically of course.
Germany or the puppet Dutch are in no position to force the issue.
I am totally aware of these negotiations. What I am saying is, while Germany and the Puppet Dutch were in no position to force the issue, the Japanese WERE !

The only reason that the Japanese get ' permission ' from the Puppet Dutch, via the Third Reich, is to provide themselves with a veneer of legality when, if necessary, they send in the IJA and IJN. In effect, it tells the NEI Government that Japan has a de jure excuse for it's de facto military actions. It also shows the NEI officials that Japan has made serious plans for these actions, and that any resistance or interference will not be tolerated.

Mr. Takao, if YOU were a Dutch NEI bureaucrat or military officer, facing the full might of the Japanese Empire, with only the slender reed of the tiny NEI military forces to call upon, and the Japanese gave you the choice of either acquiescence or death, WHAT WOULD YOU DO ?

The British can't help. The U.S. won't help. And, if you make the wrong decision, you AND YOUR FAMILY are all DEAD !

Mr. Takao, I have an oil painting of a Dutch official telling a Japanese General to go stuff himself when he has his Nambu pistol stuffed in the official's
mouth.

Diplomatically, of course.

Respectfully :

Paul R. Ward
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Re: Japan delays Pearl Harbor, attacks USSR during the high point of Barbarossa

#33

Post by pugsville » 28 Oct 2019, 03:13

paulrward wrote:
27 Oct 2019, 21:28
Hello All :

I will handle these in order, by the posting #

# 15- Mr. Pugsville posted :
The Dutch Government in Exile was officially recognized, the Dutch puppet Government in the Netherlands was Not. A different situation from the Vichy regime. The French Government sought an armistice in 1940 and there was some legitimacy to the Vichy french regime, and had official recognition thus some things could be done. No such arrangement existed in the Netherlands. The Puppet government was unrecognized and the Government in Exile in England was.
No agreement signed by the Puppet Government was worth anything. Any Japanese occupation of the Netherlands East Indies would have to be an invasion.
There was no much co-operation between Japan and Germany. The Japanese asked the Germans to asistance in their negotiations with Vichy France, the Germans did not.
The recognition of the D.G.i.E. by the United States and Great Britain is irrelevant. If the IJN DON'T recognize it, just like Germany didn't recognize it, then the Germans can simply ' sell ' the N.E.I. to the Japanese. At this point, the Japanese send emmissaries to the N.E.I. , and lay out to them the situation:

" Japan is taking over. We have a Fleet, an Army, and an Air Force. You have a few light cruisers, some obsolete Martin B-10s, a few Curtis Hawks, some WW1 howitzers, and a constabulary force. Here is your choice: Surrender, and we simply move in and things go on as before, with Japanese supervision, or fight us, and we wipe out your armed forces and your government officials and all of their families !
Queen Wilhelmina ain't comin' to rescue you, the Brits are too busy picking themselves off the floor after Dunquerque and the Blitz, and the United States is too far away and not interested in going to war over some other nation's colonial interest. You guys are on your own, and we, the Japanese, are taking over. Any signs of resistance or sabotage will be met with bloody reprisals.
And this is the point at which you say, " Yessir ! " Any Questions ? "

As for any agreement between Nazi Germany and Japan being worth something - Mr. Pugsville, international agreements are worth whatever the armed forces of the various parties agree they are worth. If there is a disagreement, then the diplomatice situation is settled by what Von Clausewitz described as ' other means' .

And here is where the 'Lack of Imagination' of many posters on this forum shows up. Mr. Pugsville, WHAT IF ( The two most powerful words in the English Language ! ) What If the Japanese send emissaries to Hitler and Mussolini in the winter of 1940-41, and they have a long sit down, in which ALL the participants agree that, with the coming events, it would be better to have a close cooperation within the Axis to ensure an more profitable outcome, and further, that, given the huge industrial power of the United States, it would be better for all concerned if the U.S. was NOT antagonized in any way, and thus was kept out of the War, allowing the Axis to 'pick off' it's enemies one by one, until only the United States was left ?
Such ganagsterism would be unacceptable to many Japanese. Japense diplomats would not act in such a way. And niter would officers of teh Amry or Navy. And it simply would not work

Why did the Japanese Attack Pearl Harbour?

Because they strike south to the NEI would result immediately in a declaration of War by the USA. That's just an historical fact that the Japenese well knew. They would not be going to war to protect Dutch colonial interests any more than Britain went to war to Protect Poland. The US would not tolerate the further military expansion of the Japanese regardless of where.

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Re: Japan delays Pearl Harbor, attacks USSR during the high point of Barbarossa

#34

Post by paulrward » 28 Oct 2019, 04:06

Hello All :

In # 33, Mr. Pugsville stated :
Such ganagsterism (sic) would be unacceptable to many Japanese. Japense (sic) diplomats would not act in such a way. And niter (sic ) would officers of teh Amry (sic) or Navy. And it simply would not work
Why did the Japanese Attack Pearl Harbour?
Because they (sic) strike south to the NEI would result immediately in a declaration of War by the USA. That's just an historical fact that the Japenese (sic) well knew. They would not be going to war to protect Dutch colonial interests any more than Britain went to war to Protect Poland. The US would not tolerate the further military expansion of the Japanese regardless of where.

So many innacuracies, so little time......


In point of fact, the entire Imperial Japanese Government acted more like a large, somewhat disorderly Crime Family than it did like a nation state. There were factions that fought against each other, carrying out assasinations and forcing senior members of the Armed Forces to have bodyguards at all times to protect them from the other branches.

When Japan conquered foreign nations, members of the Armed Forces and the Imperial Administration enriched themselves by looting and stealing property and resources, to the point where the IJN was employing warships to transport stolen gold and other forms of wealth back to the Home Islands where it was held by the families of IJN officers.

The Imperial Diplomatic Corps, like all diplomats, were little more than facile liars, parroting whatever they were instructed to say to foreign governments. ( For example, when Kurusu and Nomura went to speak with Cordell Hull on the morning of the attack on Pearl Harbor, they simply blandly stated that the Imperial Government was ending negotiations...... )

As for what the average Japanese citizen thought or felt, Japan was an Imperial Tyranny. The thoughts or opinions of the peasant class in Japan were of no concern to the ruling clique. Add to this the fact that, upon hearing that the IJN had bombed Pearl Harbour, the Japanese in Tokyo were out in the street, singing the Gunkan kōshinkyoku .

Why did the Japanese attack Pearl Harbour ? Because, like any group of skilled criminals, they thought they could get away with it !


Now, did the Japanese government believe that attacking the NEI and Malaya would cause the U.S. to declare war ? Yes, this is quite likely. And, obviously, an attack on either the Philippines, or Hawaii, or, historically, both, DID result in a U.S. declaration of war. However, it IS NOT A ' HISTORICAL FACT ' that the U.S. would have reacted to an occupation of the NEI with a declaration of war, and, historically, there is much to argue against it.

You stated that the U.S. would not tolerate any further Japanese Expansionism. Well, from 1894 to 1941, the Japanese, without provocation, had attacked China, Russia, Korea, China again, Russia ( USSR ) China for the third time ) , the USA ( Panay Incident ) and finally France ( French Indo-China ) Not ONCE had the U.S. reacted with a declaration of war. The most we ever did was, in 1941, cut off economic credit and trade in strategic materials to Japan. On the other occasions, the United States essentially sent the Japanese a series of very strongly worded diplomatic notes. In effect, the U.S. had a history of over four decades of tolerating Japanese Expansionism,
as long as they didn't try to expand into the U.S. or it's territories.

The week before Pearl Harbor, in the Oval Office, President Roosevelt and members of his Cabinet were discussing a possible reaction if the Japanese attacked the NEI or Malaya. AT NO TIME did any participant in these discussions state unequivocally that, were such an attack to take place, the U.S. would go to war. As I have emphasized to the point of ad nauseum, such a declaration requires a vote by both Houses of Congress, who, under the circumstances, were unlikely to go along with such an action.

Had the Japanese occupied the NEI in the spring of 1941, the most the U.S. would have done is send a cable to Tokyo saying, " You know how we cut off your Oil ? Well, now you are under Double Oil Cutoff ! So there ! Nyahhhhh ! "

That's all the United States could have done. The U.S. was NOT ready for war in the Summer of 1941, either politically or militarily. In point of fact, the Roosevelt Administration was stalling for time, hoping to build up the Navy and the Armed forces in the Philippines to the point where they would be a credible deterrent to Japan, while preparing the U.S. for a war in Europe against Hitler. It didn't work out that way.....

Respectfully ;

Paul R. Ward
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Re: Japan delays Pearl Harbor, attacks USSR during the high point of Barbarossa

#35

Post by pugsville » 28 Oct 2019, 04:43

paulrward wrote:
28 Oct 2019, 04:06
Hello All :

In # 33, Mr. Pugsville stated :
Such ganagsterism (sic) would be unacceptable to many Japanese. Japense (sic) diplomats would not act in such a way. And niter (sic ) would officers of teh Amry (sic) or Navy. And it simply would not work
Why did the Japanese Attack Pearl Harbour?
Because they (sic) strike south to the NEI would result immediately in a declaration of War by the USA. That's just an historical fact that the Japenese (sic) well knew. They would not be going to war to protect Dutch colonial interests any more than Britain went to war to Protect Poland. The US would not tolerate the further military expansion of the Japanese regardless of where.

So many innacuracies, so little time......


In point of fact, the entire Imperial Japanese Government acted more like a large, somewhat disorderly Crime Family than it did like a nation state. There were factions that fought against each other, carrying out assasinations and forcing senior members of the Armed Forces to have bodyguards at all times to protect them from the other branches.

When Japan conquered foreign nations, members of the Armed Forces and the Imperial Administration enriched themselves by looting and stealing property and resources, to the point where the IJN was employing warships to transport stolen gold and other forms of wealth back to the Home Islands where it was held by the families of IJN officers.

The Imperial Diplomatic Corps, like all diplomats, were little more than facile liars, parroting whatever they were instructed to say to foreign governments. ( For example, when Kurusu and Nomura went to speak with Cordell Hull on the morning of the attack on Pearl Harbor, they simply blandly stated that the Imperial Government was ending negotiations...... )

As for what the average Japanese citizen thought or felt, Japan was an Imperial Tyranny. The thoughts or opinions of the peasant class in Japan were of no concern to the ruling clique. Add to this the fact that, upon hearing that the IJN had bombed Pearl Harbour, the Japanese in Tokyo were out in the street, singing the Gunkan kōshinkyoku .

Why did the Japanese attack Pearl Harbour ? Because, like any group of skilled criminals, they thought they could get away with it !


Now, did the Japanese government believe that attacking the NEI and Malaya would cause the U.S. to declare war ? Yes, this is quite likely. And, obviously, an attack on either the Philippines, or Hawaii, or, historically, both, DID result in a U.S. declaration of war. However, it IS NOT A ' HISTORICAL FACT ' that the U.S. would have reacted to an occupation of the NEI with a declaration of war, and, historically, there is much to argue against it.

You stated that the U.S. would not tolerate any further Japanese Expansionism. Well, from 1894 to 1941, the Japanese, without provocation, had attacked China, Russia, Korea, China again, Russia ( USSR ) China for the third time ) , the USA ( Panay Incident ) and finally France ( French Indo-China ) Not ONCE had the U.S. reacted with a declaration of war. The most we ever did was, in 1941, cut off economic credit and trade in strategic materials to Japan. On the other occasions, the United States essentially sent the Japanese a series of very strongly worded diplomatic notes. In effect, the U.S. had a history of over four decades of tolerating Japanese Expansionism,
as long as they didn't try to expand into the U.S. or it's territories.

The week before Pearl Harbor, in the Oval Office, President Roosevelt and members of his Cabinet were discussing a possible reaction if the Japanese attacked the NEI or Malaya. AT NO TIME did any participant in these discussions state unequivocally that, were such an attack to take place, the U.S. would go to war. As I have emphasized to the point of ad nauseum, such a declaration requires a vote by both Houses of Congress, who, under the circumstances, were unlikely to go along with such an action.

Had the Japanese occupied the NEI in the spring of 1941, the most the U.S. would have done is send a cable to Tokyo saying, " You know how we cut off your Oil ? Well, now you are under Double Oil Cutoff ! So there ! Nyahhhhh ! "

That's all the United States could have done. The U.S. was NOT ready for war in the Summer of 1941, either politically or militarily. In point of fact, the Roosevelt Administration was stalling for time, hoping to build up the Navy and the Armed forces in the Philippines to the point where they would be a credible deterrent to Japan, while preparing the U.S. for a war in Europe against Hitler. It didn't work out that way.....

Respectfully ;

Paul R. Ward
That the Japanese believed an Attack on the NEi would lead to US declaration of War is the historical fact i was referring to.

Occupation of India China had lead to harsh economic sanctions that were pretty damming in their immediate effect. It was direct and immediate response.

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RE: Japan Delays Pearl Harbor, Attacks The U.S.S.R. During The "HIGH POINT" Of Barbarossa.

#36

Post by Robert Rojas » 28 Oct 2019, 05:12

Greetings to both brother Takao and the community as a whole. Howdy Takao! Well sir, in reference to your installment of Sunday - October 27, 2019 - 11:27am, old yours truly would like to convey my appreciation for imparting that slice of Japanese culture where the act of losing face AND saving face are societal traits that certainly impact or potentially direct the course of events in many unexpected ways! And yes, I also would concur with the sage examples you provided to illustrate your point about the glory and the shame of both success and failure. Incidentally, thank you for addressing brother Cannon Fodder 95's odd assertion that the Imperial Japanese Empire was attempting to acquire Siberian Real Estate with this hypothetical gambit of his. As far as I know (and that's not saying much), Tokyo had no grand designs on territory the Soviet Far East. I just feel sorry for all of the rank and file Japanese Army ground pounders that will have to endure the privations of duty in the Soviet Far East before they're systematically slaughtered by the well acclimatized indigenous people of the region known as the EVENKI. It's just some sobering food for thought. Reindeer jerky anyone? Well, that's my latest two Yankee cents worth on this celestial sojourn to the Yasukuni Shrine - for now anyway. As always, I would like to bid you an especially copacetic day over in your corner of the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania.

Best Regards,
Uncle Bob :idea: :|
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Re: Japan delays Pearl Harbor, attacks USSR during the high point of Barbarossa

#37

Post by glenn239 » 29 Oct 2019, 18:29

pugsville wrote:
28 Oct 2019, 04:43

That the Japanese believed an Attack on the NEi would lead to US declaration of War is the historical fact i was referring to.
I've heard worse plans than Paul's to pre-empt the July 1941 embargo by seizing the NEI before the US was diplomatically committed to a line in the sand. I mean, we can't argue both that Japan had a 0% chance in WW2 against the Americans, and then quibble with a pre-emptive move trying to avoid that 100% chance of defeat, can we?

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Re: Japan delays Pearl Harbor, attacks USSR during the high point of Barbarossa

#38

Post by OpanaPointer » 29 Oct 2019, 18:44

"And niter would officers of teh Amry or Navy. " LOL. Nanking.
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Re: Japan delays Pearl Harbor, attacks USSR during the high point of Barbarossa

#39

Post by OpanaPointer » 29 Oct 2019, 18:46

It helps to remember that the Japanese were no better than fourth in line for US petroleum. The military wanted to build up their reserves. The public wanted to be able to drive their cars. The British needed fuel. None of those parties wanted to do with less than the maximum they could get while the Japanese were using US fuel to kill Chinese. T. V. Soong made this point often enough in the US media.
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Re: Japan delays Pearl Harbor, attacks USSR during the high point of Barbarossa

#40

Post by Takao » 29 Oct 2019, 20:32

paulrward wrote:
28 Oct 2019, 00:12
Hello All :

In # 29, Mr. Takao posted :
Are you aware of Japanese negotiation with the NEI between September, 1940 - June, 1941?
I don't think so.
The Japanese had been negotiating for eseentiaaly what you have written. Batavia pretty much turned down each and every offer.
Given Batavia's rejection of Japanese offers, Batavia's response to Hitler & the puppet Dutch government will most likely be a combination of "Go stuff yourself" and "Make us", all phrased diplomatically of course.
Germany or the puppet Dutch are in no position to force the issue.
I am totally aware of these negotiations. What I am saying is, while Germany and the Puppet Dutch were in no position to force the issue, the Japanese WERE !

The only reason that the Japanese get ' permission ' from the Puppet Dutch, via the Third Reich, is to provide themselves with a veneer of legality when, if necessary, they send in the IJA and IJN. In effect, it tells the NEI Government that Japan has a de jure excuse for it's de facto military actions. It also shows the NEI officials that Japan has made serious plansn for these actions, and that any resistance or interference will not be tolerated.

Mr. Takao, if YOU were a Dutch NEI bureaucrat or military officer, facing the full might of the Japanese Empire, with only the slender reed of the tiny NEI military forces to call upon, and the Japanese gave you the choice of either acquiescence or death, WHAT WOULD YOU DO ?

The British can't help. The U.S. won't help. And, if you make the wrong decision, you AND YOUR FAMILY are all DEAD !

Mr. Takao, I have an oil painting of a Dutch official telling a Japanese General to go stuff himself when he has his Nambu pistol stuffed in the official's
mouth.

Diplomatically, of course.

Respectfully :

Paul R. Ward
The problem is that the DEI are not taking orders from the puppet Dutch government. Japan had made such veiled threats during the negotiations. They also made it clear that DEI business would not continue as usual once the Japanese moved in.

Conversely, while the Japanese Navy could make trouble, the Japanese Army was bogged down in their war in China z which was showing no signs of improving.

It dosen"t matter which path, I would choose, only what path the DEI would chose. And we know what path they chose.

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Re: Japan delays Pearl Harbor, attacks USSR during the high point of Barbarossa

#41

Post by paulrward » 29 Oct 2019, 22:51

Hello All :

In # 40, Mr. Takao posted :
The problem is that the DEI are not taking orders from the puppet Dutch government. Japan had made such veiled threats during the negotiations. They also made it clear that DEI business would not continue as usual once the Japanese moved in.
Conversely, while the Japanese Navy could make trouble, the Japanese Army was bogged down in their war in China z which was showing no signs of improving.
It dosen"t matter which path, I would choose, only what path the DEI would chose. And we know what path they chose.
It is immaterial who the NEI are taking orders from. The fact is, militarily they do not have to power to maintain their independance in the face of a Japanese invasion. If the IJN shows up, they simply sink the NEI ragtag flotilla of cruisers and destroyers the the same ease they destroyed them in 1942 historically. In early 1941, the NEI Air Force was even LESS capable of air defense than they were a year later, the IJN A6Ms and D3As would either bomb them on their airfields or send them down in flames. Then, with each island cut off from the others, the IJA would move in and take the lot. The reward for the NEI government officials and military officers and their families would be summay executions, while the enlisted NEI POWs would be sent to the Japanese coal mines to be worked to death.

The sole purpose of getting the Germans and Dutch Puppet Government to sign a treaty handing over the NEI to the Japanese is to have a scrap of paper to wave in front of Franklin's nose. Then, Freewheelin' Frank will have a choice: Do Nothing, or try to convince a reluctant Congress to go to war to restore a group of colonies to a goverment that no longer has any real power or authority. When the Japanese invaded French Indo-China, what did Franklin do ? He imposed an credit seizure and a trade embargo. And nothing more.

And here is a Salient Point: ini # 35, Mr. Pugsville posted :
Occupation of India China had lead to harsh economic sanctions that were pretty damming in their immediate effect. It was direct and immediate response.
I have to admit, that the economic sanctions imposed on Japan were quite 'damming' (sic) in their immediate effect. After the occupation of the NEI and Malaya, not so much.....

The effect of the sanctions was to freeze Japanese financial assets in the USA, ( litterally tens of billions of dollars ) and removing from Japanese access some 88% of their oil. This left the Japanese with reserves that, in the summer of 1941, amounted to three years of restricted peace-time use, or one year of war time use.

However, if the Japanese take the NEI, the oil issue goes away. And, with a strong alliance with Germany, and thus the access to the Swiss Banking System, the Japanese can now do all their international transactions via Zurich, effectively cutting out the necessity for the use of the New York Banking System controlled by Roosevelt and the London Banking System controlled by Churchill. With a little work, and some time, it might end up that ALL of the trade and financial transactions on the Western side of the Pacific would have to be conducted in Japanese Yen.....
" Money makes the world go around.
the world go 'round , the world go 'round,
Money makes the world go around.
The clinking, clanking sound of...
Money money money money… "

As for the IJA being ' bogged down ' in China: Historically, the IJA, some 8-9 months after my projected occupation of the NEI, IN FACT simultaneously captured Guam, Wake, Malaya, the Philippines, and the NEI. And, in the time frame I am advocating, the IJA also took French IndoChina, all the while continuing to thrust their way deep into China.... The IJA had plenty of assets to occupy the colonies of non-existent nations.

As for the path the NEI took, yes, when Britain and the USA declared war on Japan after Pearl Harbor, the NEI fought. And the end result was, the IJA grabbed the NEI military by the scruff of their neck, bent them over a table, and used them like a comfort woman. The NEI can choose to fight, but without any support from any Allies, their life expectancy is not much more than the range divided by the muzzle velocity.....

But, they can die heroically.....


Respectfully :

Paul R. Ward
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Re: Japan delays Pearl Harbor, attacks USSR during the high point of Barbarossa

#42

Post by OpanaPointer » 29 Oct 2019, 23:23

"Since 1937 you have been telling me that the war in China is going to take one more year..."
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Re: Japan delays Pearl Harbor, attacks USSR during the high point of Barbarossa

#43

Post by pugsville » 30 Oct 2019, 01:17

paulrward wrote:
29 Oct 2019, 22:51
However, if the Japanese take the NEI, the oil issue goes away. And, with a strong alliance with Germany, and thus the access to the Swiss Banking System, the Japanese can now do all their international transactions via Zurich, effectively cutting out the necessity for the use of the New York Banking System controlled by Roosevelt and the London Banking System controlled by Churchill. With a little work, and some time, it might end up that ALL of the trade and financial transactions on the Western side of the Pacific would have to be conducted in Japanese Yen.....
the Swiss banking system was negligible in 1940s. It was not a center of international finance. Credit in trade in this period was pretty rare, no really trusted their people's currencies, a lot of world trade had dropped back to bartering.Denied access to London and New York financial centers Zurich is going to absolute nothing for the Japanese.

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Re: Japan delays Pearl Harbor, attacks USSR during the high point of Barbarossa

#44

Post by pugsville » 30 Oct 2019, 01:21

paulrward wrote:
29 Oct 2019, 22:51
The sole purpose of getting the Germans and Dutch Puppet Government to sign a treaty handing over the NEI to the Japanese is to have a scrap of paper to wave in front of Franklin's nose.
It would be ignored.The puppet Government was not recognized. Without any value what so ever. NEI takes it;s orders from London. They would do their duty, Vichy Info China wanted to fight and was disappointed to be to.

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Re: Japan delays Pearl Harbor, attacks USSR during the high point of Barbarossa

#45

Post by pugsville » 30 Oct 2019, 01:27

OpanaPointer wrote:
29 Oct 2019, 18:44
"And niter would officers of teh Amry or Navy. " LOL. Nanking.
Disagree. It's one ting to encourage and allow brutal war crimes and mass killing is another to clearly enunciate such in negotiations. The Need for a fig leaf, a waver thin excusable euphemism, to not explicitly state what is going to happen is actually pretty pernicious and the step to outright honest barbarism is not generally taken. The hypocrisy and indirect euphemism is the necessary grease to make the wheel turn in many cases.

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