What if Hitler dies in 1938, and Goering takes over?

[ShadowWave]

Note: My question is not about the internal struggles among the Nazis that would no doubt commence if Hitler died. Let's assume that Goering is somehow able to consolidate power. What is his attitude towards Poland, the Soviet Union, the west, ect? Does WWII still happen?

[Robert Rojas]

Greetings to both Shadow Wave and the community as a whole. Howdy S.W.! Well sir OR madam, in respect to your introductory posting of Friday - June 15, 2018 - 3:31am, old yours truly was wondering if your scenario was also taking into consideration the OSTER CONSPIRACY which had its own political agenda that did NOT include any member of Adolf Hitler's regime. In a nutshell, the OSTER CONSPIRACY was suppose to lead to the reinstatement of the exiled Kaiser Wilhelm II of the House of Hohenzollern as the reigning head of state of the Fatherland after the removal of Der Fuhrer Adolf Hitler and his National Socialist administration. Assuming that Adolf Hitler's meddling in Czechoslovakia had backfired, the OSTER CONSPRIACY was prepared to initiate a military backed putsch to remove Der Fuhrer. That removal would include either the arrest or the outright assassination of the all knowing Bohemian Corporal. So in light of the historical OSTER CONSPIRACY of year 1938, where does your readership go from here? JUST ASKING! Well, that's my initial two cents or pfennigs worth on this hypothetical topic of interest - for now anyway. In any case, I would like to bid you a copacetic day from sea to shining sea.


Best Regards,
Uncle Bob

[T. A. Gardner]

I would expect a massive power struggle just as occurred after Lenin died. It wouldn't just be Göring involved. Himmler, et. al., would be involved in the resulting play for who became Fuhrer.
What happens after there is a succession is likely:

A. The opposition is exiled or eradicated just as Rohm and the SA were.
B. The focus of Nazi goals changes radically. Likely Jews and others in Germany are still eradicated, but whether expansion is still in the cards, and where, would change. There might not be a WW 2. Or, there might be a radically different version of WW 2.

So, I doubt it would be as simple as Hitler dies and so-and-so takes his place. Who ends up doing that would be a matter of the power play involved.

[Robert Rojas]

Greetings to both Shadow Wave and the community as a whole. Howdy S.W.! Well sir OR madam, in continuing reference to your introductory posting of Friday - June 15, 2018 - 3:31am, since you appear not to be overly inclined to address the matter of the OSTER CONSPIRACY of year 1938, old yours truly will simply move on to my next inquiry OR inquiries. Using the time frame of March 01, 1938 through July 31, 1938, let us assume that the all knowing Bohemian Corporal succumbs to a cerebral hemorrhage. From the moment that Adolf Hitler is officially declared as deceased by his attending medical professionals, the Wehrmacht Oath of Loyalty of August 04, 1934 becomes null and void. With that in mind, where does the FELDGRAU leadership of military establishment fit into your scheme of things? Given their newly acquired "ethical freedom" from the long shadow cast by the all knowing Bohemian Corporal, does Colonel General Wilhelm Keitel (Chairman of the High Command of the Armed Forces), Colonel General Walter von Brauchitsch (Commander-In-Chief of the Army) and Colonel General Ludwig Beck (Chief of the General Staff of the Army) blithely go along with the prescribed succession of Adolf Hitler's heir apparent of Hermann Goering? Just remember, it is not lost on any of these three men that some of their Reichswehr colleagues also perished at the hands of National Socialist "justice" during the Night of the Long Knives on June 30, 1934. Given the strength and equipment of the ever expanding Wehrmacht in year 1938, would this not be a golden opportunity for the Army to rid Germany of the National Socialist Regime once and for all? As the old and battered adage goes, PAYBACK IS A BITCH! In a fore night, Franz von Papen could be the newly installed Chancellor of Germany. It's just some sobering food for thought. Schnitzel anyone? Well, that's my latest two cents or pfennigs worth on this Machiavellian topic of interest - for now anyway. In any case, I would like to bid you a copacetic day from sea to shining sea.

Best Regards,
Uncle Bob

[praetorianavis]

Assuming that Göring - the assigned successor of Hitler - came to power following the disappearance of the Führer early in 1938, it is possible that he could have consolidated his position. He was quite popular until the outbreak of WW2. He had been the architect of the German police state and he was the Tsar of German industry. In order to get rid of rivals, it is probable that he would have downscaled the influence of the Nazi party, ditched the Gauleiters, Himmler and the SS „night of long knives“ style, and made an alliance with the Prussian elite of the Wehrmacht. Göring had been first and foremost a conservative nationalist, before embracing Hitler’s National Socialism.

He was an advocate of a reconciliation - if not an alliance - with England and would have gone a long way to better ties to the USA.

He considered France a natural opponent of Germany on the continent, but he would never attacked France first. In RL he even assured the French that he does not think Germany would covet Alsace and Lorraine.

Göring’s foreign policy aims were as follows:

- the Anschluss of Austria to the Reich
- the annexation of the Sudetenland
- acquiring some colonies for the supply of raw materials and tropic products
- the forming of a Central European economic area with the inclusion of Czechoslovakia, Hungary, Yugoslavia, Romania and Bulgaria under German leadership
- achieving equal status with the great powers by the renegotiation of the restrictions of the Treaty of Versailles and a reasonable rearmament of Germany supporting her standing as a European power.

Göring would probably have pursued the policy of expelling Jews from German economic, social and cultural positions, and of their forced emigration.

Otherwise he was an opportunist, made bold propositions and often changed his positions.

He was sympathetic towards Poland because of her fierce resistance to Soviet invasion and would probably have tried to negotiate the status of Danzig and the ancient East Prussian territories lost to Poland after WW1.

Göring was staunchly anti-communist and had a hostile stance towards the Soviet Union. But he never advocated a war against Russia: actually he opposed it.

Under the circumstances prevailing, with Chamberlain and Halifax calling the shots in the UK, he would probably have achieved most of his foreign policy aims. By reuniting Austria and Silezia with Germany (as Hitler did in RL) his popularity would have greatly increased.

It is even possible that he could have reached an agreement with England about a non-aggression pact and economic cooperation on the basis of anti-bolshevism. However, it was unlikely that he could obtain the ceding of former German colonies, like Ghana, Rwanda, Burundi, or Tanzania. In RL he suggested to English middlemen that he would not insist on ex-German colonies controlled by the UK since WW1, but would be satisfied by receiving Belgian and Portuguese colonies as a compensation for restraining German rearmament to a defense against the Soviet menace.

He would probably have made an Anti-Comintern alliance and a mutual defense treaty with Poland, in exchange for concessions in Vorpommern, upper Silesia, Posen and Masuria, and obtained the independence of the city state of Danzig as well as a railway connection through the Polish corridor to Eastern Prussia.

France would probably have been concerned about the reemergence of a strong Germany and it is possible that it would have entered into some form of military pact with the Soviet Union to keep Germany encircled and at bay. It would also have tried to strengthen economic and military ties to Yugoslavia and Romania, in order to keep these countries out of the German orbit.

The big question is, whether Stalin would have attacked Germany once the Soviet Union finished its feverish armament program pursued since the 1930s in RL and built a gigantic offensive force, let us say, by 1943. If yes, it is open to speculation whether Germany, with a limited armament program jealously supervised by the UK and France, could have withstood the onslaught of the Soviet Red Army (possibly in concert with France). It is not unthinkable that in a Soviet-French war against Germany the UK and the US would have assisted the German side. Germany was a useful pawn to maintain the balance of power in Europe. In case they did not, the odds are that the Soviet Union, after the defeat of Germany, would sooner or later have swallowed and sovietized Western Europe, with Italy, Spain, and the Balkans falling domino-like too. Germany, France, Italy, Spain, Yugoslavia, Greece had strong Communist and other leftist movements after all. It would take the UK and the US years, before they could meaningfully intervene on the continent.

An Eurasian Soviet superpower could have emerged, facing the UK and the USA. A run for the atomic bomb would have followed. Some Communist-sympathizing German émigré scientists (like Leo Szilard), or Robert Oppenheimer and Enrico Fermi would possibly have helped Soviet Eurasia to get parity with the US in nuclear arms.

[South]

Good afternoon Praetorianavis,

Welcome to AHF. You're among friends, colleagues and neighbors. Goliath is from this Mare's eastern neighborhood. Helen's from Troy. Aphrodite has a nice water front place on Cyprus. Nearby her villa is her known world famous pharmaceutical company.

Was he Tsar of the industry or the Kaiser of it ? Maybe a Charlemagne ?

Could better US ties even be realistic ? The US did not want a German-dominated European landmass. Review steel production compared to Britain's and you can guess what was propelling the US position, amongst other things.

Goring was not the first or only one to consider France an opponent of Germany. Prior to Goring and the new 1871 Germany, we can read the semi-antagonistic correspondence between Erasmus and Luther serving as a foundation block to the rivalry.

Assurances ? "Speak softly and carry a big stick." T. Roosevelt

Goring's central European economic area foreign policy did have a conflict with some Great Powers' foreign policy.

Consider reviewing Goring's foreign policy aims and Chamberlain and Halifax "calling the shots in the UK". One shot-caller inadvertently omitted was Montagu Norman. Although he kept banker's hours, he did have a plentiful involvement.

One Portuguese colony was Angola and it had a province called Cabinda. This province had only 1 main product: petroleum. Much more involved than trading tiles on a mosaic. Marc Rich of Zug, Switzerland was familiar and had once owned the place (Pardoned by US President Clinton).

Are you familiar with the economic and financial arrangements between the UK and the US ? Ref the USSR "sovietizing" western Europe, ask Rosa Luxemberg the practicality of this.

Scientists like Oppenheimer don't raise huge pools of money to prep for atomic ordnance research. This requires economic and financial arrangements.

Again, welcome to the forum. You're among fellow historians. Aphrodite just invited all of us over to her place for ... well ...a seafood dinner. She's sophisticated. In lieu of the pancake syrup pawned off as Greek wine, she's serving the real stuff from the pending new Italy.

~ Bob
eastern Virginia, USA

[Robert Rojas]

Greetings to both citizen Praetorianavis and the community as a whole. Howdy Praetorainavis (or the bodyguard of advice, opinion and deliberation if you so prefer)! Well sir, in respect to your posting of Tuesday - August 21, 2018 - 8:46am, old yours truly was pleasantly surprised with your approach to this hypothetical scenario. Your approach to this topic is certainly thinking that is well outside of the proverbial box. Now, as you undoubtedly know, in terms of geopolitics, nothing exists in a vacuum. Before brother T.A. Gardner intervenes on this matter, have you taken into consideration the not so inconsequential matter of greater Asia in your strategic perceptions? Where, from your perspective anyway, does China, Japan and British administered India fit into your scheme of things? Events if Asia will certainly impact the geopolitical decision making processes with both the British Commonwealth and the United States of America vis-à-vis Europe. It's just speculative food for thought. Yes, there is a bit more to the world than just the REDDIT site. Well, that's my latest Yankee two cents worth on this expansive topic of interest - for now anyway. In any case, I would like to take this opportunity to welcome you to the Axis History Forum. Finally, I would like to bid you an especially copacetic day no matter where you just might have to find yourself on the seven seas!

Best Regards,
Uncle Bob

[praetorianavis]

Thank you Bob for your warm welcome.

"Could better US ties even be realistic ? The US did not want a German-dominated European landmass."

Yessir, it could be. Göring did not want a German domination of Europe: I have listed his (restrained) foreign policy aims, which were fully acceptable to the balance of power minded Brits and the USA. He wanted a much more restrained place under the sun than Hitler.

"Was he Tsar of the industry or the Kaiser of it ?"

Germany was difinitely closer to Russia than the US, which lists dozens of government empowered Czars...

"Goring was not the first or only one to consider France an opponent of Germany."

The poster of the thread asked specifically about Göring's assessment of, and inclinations towards Germany's neighbors. At a meeting with a French envoy, Göring complained that he had the feeling that whatever France does, it is intended to the detriment of Germany. Which was - and to a certain measure still is - probably true...

"Goring's central European economic area foreign policy did have a conflict with some Great Powers' foreign policy."

Especially with the foreign policy of France and of Russia. This is why I anticipated a Russian-French invasion of Germany.

"Ref the USSR "sovietizing" western Europe, ask Rosa Luxemberg the practicality of this. "

Ask Lenin and Stalin how they invested all their hopes in the German working class. Engels draw his conclusions from the condition of workers in England. Marx's fundamental idea was that the bolshevik revolution would and should commence in the most developed capitalistic countries. These guys really meant what they said. The fact that it first came to power in underdeveloped, predominantly rural Russia was contrary to their beliefs and caused them to desperately find out contrived ideologic explanations.

"Scientists like Oppenheimer don't raise huge pools of money to prep for atomic ordnance research."

They just give useful hints: "how to". Pouring enormous mass of funds into projects judged vital was a peculiaritiy of bolshevist dicatorships. You could bet the farm on it that once Stalin received an info about nuclear bombs, he would have assigned Beria to the task at all costs come what may.

Thank you again for your comments and ave and salve to the New World.

[praetorianavis]

Thanks Uncle Bob for your copacetic welcome.

"have you taken into consideration the not so inconsequential matter of greater Asia in your strategic perceptions? Where, from your perspective anyway, does China, Japan and British administered India fit into your scheme of things? Events if Asia will certainly impact the geopolitical decision making processes with both the British Commonwealth and the United States of America vis-à-vis Europe."

Göring's worldview was focused on Central Europe and the Balkans. He had no plans, let alone grand designs concerning Greater Asia. His was a very opportunistic worldview in which Germany was due the same place under the sun than let's say France. A European Great Power status, with some colonies to get coffee, bananas and rum from. After Hitler's declaration of war to Russia and America, Goering increasingly went depressive and eccentric, concentrating on the looting of art items, wining, dining, hunting and the like.

Had he have the opportunity to take power in 1938, events would have evolved quite differently.

Greetings to beautiful Pleasant Hill in California.

[praetorianavis]

@Uncle Bob, continued:

As opposed to Göring, Stalin and the Comintern leadership did have a grand design: the conquest of the world by triumphant Communism. Read some communist literature and have a glance at the Soviet coat of arms: the globe, stamped with a great hammer and sickle. One could not accuse them of concealing their intentions and objectives.

Accordingly, they would have actively supported Mao's communists in China, Ho Chi Minh in Vietnam, instigated communist insurgencies in Malaysia, Indonesia, you name it..

[Robert Rojas]

Greetings to both brother South and the community as a whole. Howdy Bob! Well sir, in light of citizen Praetorianavises posting of Tuesday - August 21, 2018 - 2:57pm, apparently my historical knowledge of the goals and aims of the Third International are clearly lacking. As one of old Uncle Bob's veteran partners in crime, I was wondering what learned works of Marxist Leninist literature that you might objectively recommend to correct my deficient understanding of the World Communist Movement. Now, brother South, I AM REALLY-REALLY-REALLY DEPENDING ON YOU FOR THIS! Incidentally, old yours truly believes that the Sherwin-Williams Paint Company had a commercial advertisement that put the old Soviet coat of arms to shame. If I recall, their Madison Avenue shtick was WE COVER THE EARTH showing a gallon of paint being poured over a globe. ARE WE HAVING FUN YET!? It's just some parody for thought! Hostess Twinkies anyone? Well, that's my latest two cents, pfennigs or kopecks worth on this sojourn into the absurd - for now anyway! In any case, I would like to bid you an especially copacetic day over in the Old Dominion that is the Commonwealth of Virginia.

Best Regards From The Lumpenproletaritdom!
Uncle Bob

[Phaing]

I agree that internally little would have change and that externally Germany would have been far less adventurous.

However... Goering did not have Hitler's presence nor his ability to manipulate people or his insights into other nation's weaknesses. Under Goring Germany would have become the most corrupt nation on Earth... for as long as he was allowed to continue. THe only net benefit to the Govt would have been the replacement of Ribbentrop.

IMHO, he would have had 3 years, maybe 7 at most, before he was either eased out of office with a massive retirement package, or killed by Himmler, or simply expired of his own self-indulgence.

And at that point, this becomes a different subject.

[Robert Rojas]

Greetings to both brother Phaing and the community as a whole. Howdy Phaing! Well sir, in respect to your posting of Wednesday - August 22, 2018 - 9:03am, old yours truly would appreciate a wee bit of clarification regarding your assertion that the Fatherland would become THE most corrupt nation on the face of the earth under the governance of Hermann Göring. More specifically, what domestic and international policies would his regime institute to transform the German State into Europe's premier kleptocracy? In terms of kleptocracies, Hermann Göring would have to make a herculean effort to catch up and overtake the likes of Joseph Stalin of the Soviet Union and Chiang Kai-Shek of Nationalist China for that dubious title. Now, apart from Foreign Minister Joachim von Ribbentrop, I also rather suspect that a number of other ministers from Adolf Hitler's former regime would be urged to resign and head off into early retirement. In addition, taking a page out of the OSTER CONSPIRACY of course, I also suspect that Herman Göring would placate the monarchist leaning Officer Corps of his now powerful and expanding military establishment by reinstating Kaiser Wilhelm II of the House of Hohenzollern as the reigning head of the German State while Herman Göring would subsequently assume the formal title of governing Chancellor. The title of Fuhrer would be dropped from the German lexicon. Finally, there would be NO Wehrmacht oath of loyalty to the personage of Hermann Göring. Any future Wehrmacht oath of loyalty would be addressed exclusively to the German State. At this point, I might guardedly concur, in part, with brother T.A. Gardner's posting of Friday - June 15, 2018 - 2:01pm where he asserts that there might not be Second World War OR there might be a radically different version of the Second World War. By and large, Herman Göring was a politician who reveled in the trappings of power as opposed to the wielding of that power. Well, that's my latest two cents or pfennigs worth on this expansive topic of interest - for now anyway. In any case, I would like to bid you an especially copacetic day up in your corner of the woods that is the fabled State of Jefferson.

Best Regards,
Uncle Bob

[South]

Good afternoon Uncle Bob,

To approach the vast subject in re historical knowledge of the goals and aims of the Third International, it should / might prove advantageous to expedite the matter. Thus, after consultations via back channels to the Sanhedrin, I recommend:

1. DARKNESS AT NOON, 1931
2. THE GOD THAT FAILED, 1950.

Both are by Arthur Koestler. Book 2 is a collection of testimonials, with Koestler having an entry and having assembled the material.

Arthur Koestler had been a member of the Communist Party of Germany from 1931 to 1938. When a real intellectual experiences something and explains it, ... worth checking out. Believe he was later an OBE or CBE... don't know nor understand the Brits' post nominals.

Forget the businesses like Amtorg, New York City, AMCOS, London, Aeroflot. They were "propped up".

Koestler had a house somewhere in eastern Pennsylvania; had considered moving here to the Atlantic seaboard. He was "well-traveled" and known as a "ladies - man". He had something to do with Hungary's Bela Kun, f/k/a Aaron Cohen. Again, Koestler was "well traveled".

......

I like that Sherman-Williams ad "We Cover the Earth" !

.....

Meanwhile, the Third International barely makes the foot notes.


~ Bob
eastern Virginia, USA

[Robert Rojas]

Greetings to both brother South and the community as a whole. Howdy Bob! Well sir, in respect to your posting of Wednesday - August 22, 2018 - 1:22pm, old yours truly would like to convey my thanks for your suggested reading materials. It is always a hopeful, if not a refreshing sign, when a misguided apostle of the cult of man sees the light and amends his OR her ways. Apparently, that was the sojourning case of the late Arthur Koestler. As you and I are both all too painfully aware, MARXISM IS THE OPIATE OF THE INTELLIGENTSIA and Arthur Koestler was certainly a prophet who saw the Third International for what it REALLY was. I'm surprised that the man was never sanctioned for assassination. Incidentally, Arthur Koestler did briefly acquire agricultural real estate in Eastern Pennsylvania. I rather suspect (rightly OR wrongly) that Arthur Koestler, in the deepest recesses of his soul, was an agronomist at heart and undoubtedly the Germanic speaking Amish provided him with a flash of inspiration to be an observant steward of the land. I also rather suspect that the geography and folk culture of Eastern Pennsylvania reminded him of rural Germany and Austria. After his exposure to Eastern Pennsylvania, he relocated to England. In subsequent years, Arthur Koestler would spend time on a kibbutz in the newly independent State of Israel. Now, as difficult as it my seem to believe, there is always that errant intellectual that genuinely likes to get his hands dirty. Yes, sometimes truth can be stranger than fiction. Finally, on a sadistic side note, I would love to lock Futurist, Globalization41 and Praetorianavis in the same room just to see what would happen! Now, that would be entertaining indeed! Well, that's my latest tangential two cents or pfennigs worth on this expansive topic of interest - for now anyway. In any case, I would like to bid you an especially copacetic day over in the Old Dominion that is the Commonwealth of Virginia.

Best Regards,
Uncle Bob