What is the largest post-WWII Soviet bloc that can be formed if France doesn't fall in 1940?

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Futurist
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What is the largest post-WWII Soviet bloc that can be formed if France doesn't fall in 1940?

Post by Futurist » 23 Aug 2018 03:21

What is the largest post-WWII Soviet bloc that can be formed if France doesn't fall in 1940?

As for my own thoughts on this, I think that, if France doesn't fall in 1940 and a long war subsequently occurs--with enough time for the Soviet Union to enter the war on the Anglo-French side--then the Soviet Union can acquire Poland, Czechoslovakia, and eastern Germany as satellite states after it liberates them from Nazi rule. (The Baltic countries, Bessarabia, and Bukovina would obviously be outright annexed to the Soviet Union.) In addition to this, the Soviet Union can use Hungary's occupation of southern Slovekia and Subcarpathian Ruthenia as an excuse to declare war on Hungary--thus turning Hungary into a Soviet puppet state as well. However, I don't see an avenue for the Soviet Union to turn either Romania or Bulgaria into Soviet satellite states in this scenario.

Anyway, any thoughts on this?

praetorianavis
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Re: What is the largest post-WWII Soviet bloc that can be formed if France doesn't fall in 1940?

Post by praetorianavis » 23 Aug 2018 21:39

Good Afternoon Futurist

In RL according to plans of high-level German officers, if the invasion of France turned out to be a fiasco, or into a debacle, they would arrest and probably eliminate Hitler, together with the Nazi leadership.

The new German government would probably try to negotiate a peace agreement with the UK and France. If a reasonable agreement can be reached (which would certainly include the evacuation of Polish territories by occupied by Germany, probably the restitution of Czechoslovakia, and some reparation payments (again!) to both), Stalin would lurk waiting to strike out at the next opportunity.

In any case in Germany political turmoil would follow, with some probability of degenerating into a civil war, especially if the peace terms were too harsh. In a worst case scenario, after a year or two the Communists would emerge victorious, a heaven sent development for Stalin.

If there was no civil war and the regime would stabilize, they would have some difficult, but peaceful years until about 1943.

If the war continued (and a civil war could be avoided in Germany), Stalin would side with the highest bidder. Under these circumstances, it would most probably be Germany: It is improbable that un unbeaten France and UK would concede to Stalin any territories other than those he already have grabbed. Germany would be in a much weaker position and would negotiate with the Soviets a pact about spheres of influence. Stalin would essentially demand what Molotov demanded in November 1940 in Berlin. It would be an offer that the Germans could not turn down. From this time on, they would be in Stalin’s hands. Following a long war of attrition, during which the Soviets would supply raw materials to Germany, The UK, France and Germany would be totally exhausted and indebted to the USA and Russia.

In any case, Stalin would finish his gargantuan armament efforts by 1943 and unleash his formidable war machinery on the West.

At the very least, he would occupy the same area than in 1945, but chances are the he would reach the Atlantic Ocean, the Bosporus, the Persian Gulf and Suez.

Futurist
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Re: What is the largest post-WWII Soviet bloc that can be formed if France doesn't fall in 1940?

Post by Futurist » 12 Apr 2019 07:40

praetorianavis wrote:
23 Aug 2018 21:39
Good Afternoon Futurist

In RL according to plans of high-level German officers, if the invasion of France turned out to be a fiasco, or into a debacle, they would arrest and probably eliminate Hitler, together with the Nazi leadership.
Very possible, though I do wonder how long it will take them to do this. The Germans need to not only lose in France, but decisively lose in order for Hitler's support to drain away.
The new German government would probably try to negotiate a peace agreement with the UK and France. If a reasonable agreement can be reached (which would certainly include the evacuation of Polish territories by occupied by Germany, probably the restitution of Czechoslovakia, and some reparation payments (again!) to both), Stalin would lurk waiting to strike out at the next opportunity.

In any case in Germany political turmoil would follow, with some probability of degenerating into a civil war, especially if the peace terms were too harsh. In a worst case scenario, after a year or two the Communists would emerge victorious, a heaven sent development for Stalin.
1. Germany's new leadership would need to feel that it is doomed in order to hand back the Polish Corridor. German conservatives hated the Polish Corridor as much as the Nazis did--if not even more so.

2. I don't think that a civil war in Germany would be likely unless Nazis are unwilling to accept the coup and thus militarily resist.
If there was no civil war and the regime would stabilize, they would have some difficult, but peaceful years until about 1943.
What happens in 1943?
If the war continued (and a civil war could be avoided in Germany), Stalin would side with the highest bidder. Under these circumstances, it would most probably be Germany: It is improbable that un unbeaten France and UK would concede to Stalin any territories other than those he already have grabbed. Germany would be in a much weaker position and would negotiate with the Soviets a pact about spheres of influence. Stalin would essentially demand what Molotov demanded in November 1940 in Berlin. It would be an offer that the Germans could not turn down. From this time on, they would be in Stalin’s hands. Following a long war of attrition, during which the Soviets would supply raw materials to Germany, The UK, France and Germany would be totally exhausted and indebted to the USA and Russia.

In any case, Stalin would finish his gargantuan armament efforts by 1943 and unleash his formidable war machinery on the West.

At the very least, he would occupy the same area than in 1945, but chances are the he would reach the Atlantic Ocean, the Bosporus, the Persian Gulf and Suez.
Could the US militarily intervene if it looks like the Soviets are going to conquer France? I mean, I would think that it would be unlikely for the Soviets to have that kind of power even after 1943, but if things look really bad for France, is the US actually willing to abandon its isolationism and come to France's rescue?

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