Neville Chamberlain dies in 1937

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ljadw
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Re: Neville Chamberlain dies in 1937

Post by ljadw » 06 Sep 2018 08:30

ljadw wrote:
06 Sep 2018 08:23
pugsville wrote:
06 Sep 2018 02:54
ljadw wrote:
05 Sep 2018 12:41
No Munich does not mean war between CZ and Germany .There was no relation between Munich and war/peace .
And, as there was no common border between CZ and the USSR, the USSR could not stand up to Hitler .CZ could not expect real help if it said no to Hitler's demands, only liberation after 6 years of war, that's why it yielded to Hitler's demands .
disagree. Without France and Britain brow beating the Czechs to roll over war is the likely outcome. Without Munich Hitler almost certainly would have invaded, at which point the Czechs almost certainly would have fought.
And,what would have been the outcome of the war in 1938 ? The Czechs would have been defeated in two weeks ,and liberated by the Soviets 6 years later .
A French/British DoW in 1938 would not have helped the Czechs, as the French/British DoW in 1939 did not help Poland .Poland was defeated in a few weeks, the 7,5 million Czechs would not last longer .That's why the Czechs agreed to Hitler's demands : the Czechs were doomed if they fought and doomed if they did not fight .Whatever they did, Hitler would be in Prague,Benesj would not be in Berlin .

ljadw
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Re: Neville Chamberlain dies in 1937

Post by ljadw » 06 Sep 2018 08:39

British foreign policy was dictated by facts, not by the Foreign Secretary ,who mostly was illiterate in foreign affairs :the Sudeten problem would not disappear,if Chamberlain died in 1937 .

Gooner1
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Re: Neville Chamberlain dies in 1937

Post by Gooner1 » 06 Sep 2018 11:40

pugsville wrote:
06 Sep 2018 02:54
disagree. Without France and Britain brow beating the Czechs to roll over war is the likely outcome. Without Munich Hitler almost certainly would have invaded, at which point the Czechs almost certainly would have fought.
Indeed. And if war breaks out the British Fleet and the French Army mobilises, and when the worlds greatest navy and the worlds greatest army mobilises everyone who opposes Hitler will be feeling a lot less pusillanimous.

ljadw
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Re: Neville Chamberlain dies in 1937

Post by ljadw » 06 Sep 2018 12:19

And how would the mobilisation of the British fleet stop the German invasion of CZ ? Would the RN sail trough the Spree to bomb Berlin ?

pugsville
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Re: Neville Chamberlain dies in 1937

Post by pugsville » 06 Sep 2018 12:48

ljadw wrote:
06 Sep 2018 08:30
And,what would have been the outcome of the war in 1938 ? The Czechs would have been defeated in two weeks ,and liberated by the Soviets 6 years later .
A French/British DoW in 1938 would not have helped the Czechs, as the French/British DoW in 1939 did not help Poland .Poland was defeated in a few weeks, the 7,5 million Czechs would not last longer .That's why the Czechs agreed to Hitler's demands : the Czechs were doomed if they fought and doomed if they did not fight .Whatever they did, Hitler would be in Prague,Benesj would not be in Berlin .
I agree that the Czechs would have gone down if a few weeks, the only chance would have been Poland joining, but that was unlikely.

Britain and France might have been better off going to war in 1938, while they were not well prepared, neither were the Germans, and the Germans ability to conduct a successful war against France was much less in 1938 than it was in 1940. It's quite conceivable it could lead to a Anglo-French victory in 1941-42 without the Russians getting half of Europe.

Poland was equally doomed in 1939 and they fought. Humans are only semi rational at best.

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Re: Neville Chamberlain dies in 1937

Post by OpanaPointer » 06 Sep 2018 13:25

Would Winston be back sooner?
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Gooner1
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Re: Neville Chamberlain dies in 1937

Post by Gooner1 » 06 Sep 2018 13:42

pugsville wrote:
06 Sep 2018 12:48
I agree that the Czechs would have gone down if a few weeks, the only chance would have been Poland joining, but that was unlikely.

Poland was equally doomed in 1939 and they fought. Humans are only semi rational at best.
There is a chance Poland becomes more rational.

pugsville
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Re: Neville Chamberlain dies in 1937

Post by pugsville » 06 Sep 2018 21:27

OpanaPointer wrote:
06 Sep 2018 13:25
Would Winston be back sooner?
I think unlikely to replace Chamberlain immediately. Historically Winston was brought back during a war crisis , policy was determined, then the leader chosen for that policy. With Chamberlain dying before the Czech crisis it's hard to see support for Churchill being that strong.

I'm reading up on British politics on this period right now, so in a few days I might have some more thoughts about who would.

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Re: Neville Chamberlain dies in 1937

Post by OpanaPointer » 06 Sep 2018 21:43

pugsville wrote:
06 Sep 2018 21:27
OpanaPointer wrote:
06 Sep 2018 13:25
Would Winston be back sooner?
I think unlikely to replace Chamberlain immediately. Historically Winston was brought back during a war crisis , policy was determined, then the leader chosen for that policy. With Chamberlain dying before the Czech crisis it's hard to see support for Churchill being that strong.

I'm reading up on British politics on this period right now, so in a few days I might have some more thoughts about who would.
"Winston's back" was the message sent round the fleet when he was made First Sea Lord. Bit of a pun, sorry. But I would wonder if the wiser heads wouldn't want him to shake up the fleet and get it ready for anything?
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pugsville
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Re: Neville Chamberlain dies in 1937

Post by pugsville » 06 Sep 2018 23:11

OpanaPointer wrote:
06 Sep 2018 21:43

"Winston's back" was the message sent round the fleet when he was made First Sea Lord. Bit of a pun, sorry. But I would wonder if the wiser heads wouldn't want him to shake up the fleet and get it ready for anything?
Churchill's recklessness and political opportunism / party wanderings during the 20s left Churchill with many who viewed him as an unreliable rank political opportunist.

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Re: Neville Chamberlain dies in 1937

Post by OpanaPointer » 06 Sep 2018 23:18

pugsville wrote:
06 Sep 2018 23:11
OpanaPointer wrote:
06 Sep 2018 21:43

"Winston's back" was the message sent round the fleet when he was made First Sea Lord. Bit of a pun, sorry. But I would wonder if the wiser heads wouldn't want him to shake up the fleet and get it ready for anything?
Churchill's recklessness and political opportunism / party wanderings during the 20s left Churchill with many who viewed him as an unreliable rank political opportunist.
So is that a yes or a no?
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Re: Neville Chamberlain dies in 1937

Post by Futurist » 07 Sep 2018 01:49

pugsville wrote:
06 Sep 2018 12:48
ljadw wrote:
06 Sep 2018 08:30
And,what would have been the outcome of the war in 1938 ? The Czechs would have been defeated in two weeks ,and liberated by the Soviets 6 years later .
A French/British DoW in 1938 would not have helped the Czechs, as the French/British DoW in 1939 did not help Poland .Poland was defeated in a few weeks, the 7,5 million Czechs would not last longer .That's why the Czechs agreed to Hitler's demands : the Czechs were doomed if they fought and doomed if they did not fight .Whatever they did, Hitler would be in Prague,Benesj would not be in Berlin .
I agree that the Czechs would have gone down if a few weeks, the only chance would have been Poland joining, but that was unlikely.

Britain and France might have been better off going to war in 1938, while they were not well prepared, neither were the Germans, and the Germans ability to conduct a successful war against France was much less in 1938 than it was in 1940. It's quite conceivable it could lead to a Anglo-French victory in 1941-42 without the Russians getting half of Europe.

Poland was equally doomed in 1939 and they fought. Humans are only semi rational at best.
The Soviets would have also fought had Czechoslovakia been invaded in 1938, no?

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Re: Neville Chamberlain dies in 1937

Post by pugsville » 07 Sep 2018 02:02

Futurist wrote:
07 Sep 2018 01:49
The Soviets would have also fought had Czechoslovakia been invaded in 1938, no?
Soviet interventionism was viewed as very problematic. No one was keen to get close to the soviets, and certainly the states in between Poland and Rumanian had very very firm views that the Red Army should never be allowed on their soil. So Britian and France were very reluctant to work with the soviets, and the extreme intransigence of states like Poland and Romania made any Soviet intervention difficult.

Stalin was quite happy to fight Germany as long as Britain and France were already fighting Germany seriously. Though there are problems with how that can come about.

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Re: Neville Chamberlain dies in 1937

Post by pugsville » 07 Sep 2018 02:05

OpanaPointer wrote:
06 Sep 2018 23:18
So is that a yes or a no?
My current view is not immediately, if Britain decides against war i can't see Churchill returning in any cabinet capacity, once Britain is at war it's quite likely he could be appointed to the Admiralty or war related post and quite easily become PM , but sort of more likely the worse the war goes.. But I am reading about the internal British politics of this period right now so my view might well change.

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Re: Neville Chamberlain dies in 1937

Post by Futurist » 07 Sep 2018 03:14

pugsville wrote:
07 Sep 2018 02:02
Futurist wrote:
07 Sep 2018 01:49
The Soviets would have also fought had Czechoslovakia been invaded in 1938, no?
Soviet interventionism was viewed as very problematic. No one was keen to get close to the soviets, and certainly the states in between Poland and Rumanian had very very firm views that the Red Army should never be allowed on their soil. So Britian and France were very reluctant to work with the soviets, and the extreme intransigence of states like Poland and Romania made any Soviet intervention difficult.

Stalin was quite happy to fight Germany as long as Britain and France were already fighting Germany seriously. Though there are problems with how that can come about.
The Red Army doesn't have to get permission from Poland and/or Romania before they cross their borders. Rather, they can simply invade one or both of these countries.

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