What if Germany just occupies the "Germanic" countries and doesn't attack France at all.

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Henri Winkelman
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What if Germany just occupies the "Germanic" countries and doesn't attack France at all.

Post by Henri Winkelman » 14 Sep 2018 18:57

For this scenario we can largely follow the original timeline. In September 1940, the Germans occupy the western part of Poland. The French and British officially declare war but fail (or don't want) to provide any meaningful support.

Denmark and Norway are attacked in early April 1940 and the events happen exactly the way they happened in reality. The battles around Narvik probably take a couple of weeks longer, because the British don't evacuate their troops. At the end of June 1940, however, Norway is fully occupied.

Now it comes: In mid-July (instead of May) the Germans don't attack France and Belgium at all but focus all their attacks on the Netherlands and Sweden. In the OTL, Holland was captured within 4 days. With more troops available in the ATL, this could happen even faster. At the same time, Sweden is completely surrounded by enemies (since Russia is still bounded by the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact) and has to surrender within a week as well.

The Germans have now reached their goal. All "Aryan" races (except the Britsh) under one German flag.

Image

Their are two options available now:

1. A greater Germanic empire is formed and the Germans don't attack anyone for the next 10 years. The Netherlands, Norway, Sweden and Denmark are simply integrated into the empire. In the meantime, the Germans continue silently with their Endlösung. They kill all jews in the occupied areas. It isn't very hard for the Germans to find the jews, since the northern European countries have the best administration.

Again, a very realistic option. I am Dutch myself and Holland was probably the least resisting country of all occupied Europe. The Dutch people quickly adapted to the German rules and even helped to transport 100.000 jews to the concentration camps. I know that the resistance movement was bigger in Norway, but again, with more troops available it isn't very hard to surpress resistance.

So within 4 or 5 years all jews are killed (to say it rough) and normal life continues for the rest of the "Aryan" people. In the meantime, the Germans increase their war production and find a good synthetic solution for their oil problems. Around 1950 they are by far the biggest war machine of Europe and form a threat for every country in the world.

2. Since we all know of Hitler's hatred towards Russia, he still wants to attack in 1941. From July 1940-June 1941, the Westwall is strenghtened heavily. Lets now follow the original timeline again. Germany attacks the Soviet Union in July 941, but this time the risk of an invasion on the west side of its empire is almost non-existent. The battle of Brittain doesn't take place so the wasted aircraft is still available as an extra reserve for the attacks on Russia. The extra troops give Germany the benefit of the doubt and they can win the war in the east. Of course it is also possible to take more time to build a war economy, but that will give Russia more time as well.

What do you think of these options?

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What If Germany Just Occupies The "GERMANIC" Countries And Does Not Attack France At All - (MACHTS NICHTS).

Post by Robert Rojas » 14 Sep 2018 21:20

Greetings to both citizen Jesk and THE COMMUNITY AS A WHOLE. Howdy Jesk! Well sir, in light of your posting of Friday - September 14, 2018 - 11:06am, it might not be a terribly bad idea if you acquainted OR reacquainted yourself with THE COMMUNITY STANDARDS governing the expression of contemporary politics with the neighborhood-at-large. I personally fail to see what relevance your photograph has to do with citizen's Henri Winkelman's hypothetical scenario. Well, that's my initial two cents or pfennigs worth on this incidental matter - for now anyway. As always, I would like to bid you an especially copacetic day over in your corner of White Russia.


Best Regards,
Uncle Bob :roll: :idea: :|
"It is well that war is so terrible, or we should grow too fond of it" - Robert E. Lee

Henri Winkelman
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Re: What if Germany just occupies the "Germanic" countries and doesn't attack France at all.

Post by Henri Winkelman » 14 Sep 2018 21:23

jesk wrote:
14 Sep 2018 20:06
What you modern European Union does not fit? Europe united and largely in the aftermath of the Second World War. The Nazis of all European countries were destroyed by zero. After Hitler marginals in politics.

(Picture)
Thanks, this kind of response is exactly what you want when you open a new topic on a forum. :roll:
Last edited by Henri Winkelman on 14 Sep 2018 21:33, edited 2 times in total.

Henri Winkelman
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Re: What If Germany Just Occupies The "GERMANIC" Countries And Does Not Attack France At All - (MACHTS NICHTS).

Post by Henri Winkelman » 14 Sep 2018 21:25

Robert Rojas wrote:
14 Sep 2018 21:20
Greetings to both citizen Jesk and THE COMMUNITY AS A WHOLE. Howdy Jesk! Well sir, in light of your posting of Friday - September 14, 2018 - 11:06am, it might not be a terribly bad idea if you acquainted OR reacquainted yourself with THE COMMUNITY STANDARDS governing the expression of contemporary politics with the neighborhood-at-large. I personally fail to see what relevance your photograph has to do with citizen's Henri Winkelman's hypothetical scenario. Well, that's my initial two cents or pfennigs worth on this incidental matter - for now anyway. As always, I would like to bid you an especially copacetic day over in your corner of White Russia.


Best Regards,
Uncle Bob :roll: :idea: :|
Lol Bob, thanks. Any ideas about my scenario's?

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Robert Rojas
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RE: What If Germany Just Occupies The "GERMANIC" Countries And Does Not Attack France At All - (MACHTS NICHTS).

Post by Robert Rojas » 14 Sep 2018 22:10

Greetings to both citizen Henri Winkleman and the community as a whole. Howdy Henri! Well sir, in deference to your point OR points-of-views as articulated within your introductory posting of Friday - September 14, 2018 - 9:57am, old yours truly cannot envision National Socialist Germany along with its Quisling satrapies surviving until the year 1950. With France and the British Commonwealth still in play, it would be foolhardy to EVEN consider engaging in a two front war with the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics. Incidentally, the United States of America will detonate its first atomic bomb on July 16, 1945 and the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics will detonate its first atomic bomb on August 29, 1949. Enough said! Finally, just to sate my curiosity, was there some particular reason OR reasons why the Confederation Helvetica, the Grand Ducky of Luxembourg, Flanders and Lichtenstein were not included into the all knowing Bohemian Corporal's eugenic paradise? Well, that's my latest two cents or pfennigs worth on this hypothetical topic into the surreal - for now anyway. In any case, I would like to bid you an especially copacetic day over in your corner of the ever bucolic Kingdom of the Netherlands.


Best Regards,
Uncle Bob :idea: :|
"It is well that war is so terrible, or we should grow too fond of it" - Robert E. Lee

Henri Winkelman
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Re: RE: What If Germany Just Occupies The "GERMANIC" Countries And Does Not Attack France At All - (MACHTS NICHTS).

Post by Henri Winkelman » 14 Sep 2018 23:16

Thanks Bob, I always enjoy your responses.
Robert Rojas wrote:
14 Sep 2018 22:10
Greetings to both citizen Henri Winkleman and the community as a whole. Howdy Henri! Well sir, in deference to your point OR points-of-views as articulated within your introductory posting of Friday - September 14, 2018 - 9:57am, old yours truly cannot envision National Socialist Germany along with its Quisling satrapies surviving until the year 1950.
Why is that not possible? Enough troops available to surpress every resistance. The situation was comparable to the Netherlands, both countries formed a Reichskommisariat. I have the impression though, that Dutch people were a lot more willing to accept German rule. ;)

With France and the British Commonwealth still in play, it would be foolhardy to EVEN consider engaging in a two front war with the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics. Incidentally, the United States of America will detonate its first atomic bomb on July 16, 1945 and the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics will detonate its first atomic bomb on August 29, 1949. Enough said!
Not so fast, the Germans will have more troops and means available to protect their heavy water project and will now also detonate their atomic bomb! (Not the most realistic option, I know.)
Finally, just to sate my curiosity, was there some particular reason OR reasons why the Confederation Helvetica, the Grand Ducky of Luxembourg, Flanders and Lichtenstein were not included into the all knowing Bohemian Corporal's eugenic paradise? Well, that's my latest two cents or pfennigs worth on this hypothetical topic into the surreal - for now anyway.
Switzerland will be very hard to conquer and I expect France to intervene because of the large French-speaking population of Switzerland. Flanders will be difficult as well, French troops will again enter the theatre. (And if the Germans only attack Holland, Belgium stays out of the war. This means that France is not allowed to move troops through Belgium which makes it much easier for the Germans.) I don't know if Luxembourg was considered Aryan by the Germans, I guess so? Then, of course they can take these countries as well.

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Re: What if Germany just occupies the "Germanic" countries and doesn't attack France at all.

Post by David Thompson » 15 Sep 2018 04:18

Three off-topic posts by jesk were removed, pursuant to a prior warning on topicality.

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RE: What If Germany Just Occupies The "GERMANIC" Countries And Does Not Attack France At All - (MACHTS NICHTS).

Post by Robert Rojas » 15 Sep 2018 06:04

Greetings to both citizen Henri Winkleman and the community as a whole. Howdy Henri! Well sir, in respect to your posting of Friday - September 14, 2018 - 2:16pm, old yours truly is of the belief that both you and I can generally agree that geopolitics, like old mother nature herself, abhors a vacuum. As long as the Metropolitan France remains both politically and militarily intact, National Socialist Germany will have to look over its figurative shoulder for perpetuity. It is true that THE THIRD REPUBLIC had no particular desire to engage in a proactive conflict with National Socialist Germany in either year 1940 or year 1941. The senior military leadership of France was not at all convinced that her defensive orientated armed forces would be adequately prepared to mount offensive combat operations against National Socialist Germany until year 1942. By year 1942, France would also retain a significant number of heavy hitting mechanized combat formations to carry out such offensive combat operations after reorganizing itself in year 1940 and year 1941. In addition to the potential ground threat, one could not discount the potential aerial threat posed by both the French Air Force and the British Royal Air Force based in Metropolitan France. After all, the RUHR is so temptingly close by! So, apart from those Wehrmacht units pulling occupation duty in its conquered and subjugated "ARYAN" fiefdoms, how much of the Wehrmacht will be compelled to sit behind the Siegfried Line to act as a credible deterrent to any potential ANGLO-FRANCO adventurism? Now, with that said, will the Fatherland's erstwhile military planners have enough resources in depth for Operation Barbarossa in the Summer of 1941? On a not so peripheral note, in the grander scheme of things, you studiously ignore the literal presence of both Fascist Italy and the Imperial Japanese Empire within this creation of yours. Have you taken into consideration what the potential strategic ramifications MIGHT be to Adolf Hitler's long term continental ambitions if these two ever reliable Axis partners go off the proverbial reservation to pursue their own vested interests? Finally, Doctor Werner Heisenberg did not retain a great deal of influence within the Machiavellian realm of Adolf Hitler's inner circle. The all knowing Bohemian Corporal even mockingly referred to atomic physics as "JEWISH SCIENCE" and the rest, as some would say, is history. Oh, and by the way, thank you for your clarification regarding the status of Confederation Helvetica, the Grand Duchy of Luxembourg, Flanders and Lichtenstein from my previous inquiry. Well, that is my latest two cents or pfennigs worth on this exercise into the surreal - for now anyway. In any case, I would like to bid you an especially copacetic day over in your corner of the ever bucolic Kingdom of the Netherlands.


Best Regards,
Uncle Bob :idea: :|
"It is well that war is so terrible, or we should grow too fond of it" - Robert E. Lee

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Re: What if Germany just occupies the "Germanic" countries and doesn't attack France at all.

Post by ljadw » 15 Sep 2018 11:52

Henri Winkelman wrote:
14 Sep 2018 18:57
For this scenario we can largely follow the original timeline. In September 1940, the Germans occupy the western part of Poland. The French and British officially declare war but fail (or don't want) to provide any meaningful support.

Denmark and Norway are attacked in early April 1940 and the events happen exactly the way they happened in reality. The battles around Narvik probably take a couple of weeks longer, because the British don't evacuate their troops. At the end of June 1940, however, Norway is fully occupied.

Now it comes: In mid-July (instead of May) the Germans don't attack France and Belgium at all but focus all their attacks on the Netherlands and Sweden. In the OTL, Holland was captured within 4 days. With more troops available in the ATL, this could happen even faster. At the same time, Sweden is completely surrounded by enemies (since Russia is still bounded by the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact) and has to surrender within a week as well.

The Germans have now reached their goal. All "Aryan" races (except the Britsh) under one German flag.

Image

Their are two options available now:

1. A greater Germanic empire is formed and the Germans don't attack anyone for the next 10 years. The Netherlands, Norway, Sweden and Denmark are simply integrated into the empire. In the meantime, the Germans continue silently with their Endlösung. They kill all jews in the occupied areas. It isn't very hard for the Germans to find the jews, since the northern European countries have the best administration.

Again, a very realistic option. I am Dutch myself and Holland was probably the least resisting country of all occupied Europe. The Dutch people quickly adapted to the German rules and even helped to transport 100.000 jews to the concentration camps. I know that the resistance movement was bigger in Norway, but again, with more troops available it isn't very hard to surpress resistance.

So within 4 or 5 years all jews are killed (to say it rough) and normal life continues for the rest of the "Aryan" people. In the meantime, the Germans increase their war production and find a good synthetic solution for their oil problems. Around 1950 they are by far the biggest war machine of Europe and form a threat for every country in the world.

2. Since we all know of Hitler's hatred towards Russia, he still wants to attack in 1941. From July 1940-June 1941, the Westwall is strenghtened heavily. Lets now follow the original timeline again. Germany attacks the Soviet Union in July 941, but this time the risk of an invasion on the west side of its empire is almost non-existent. The battle of Brittain doesn't take place so the wasted aircraft is still available as an extra reserve for the attacks on Russia. The extra troops give Germany the benefit of the doubt and they can win the war in the east. Of course it is also possible to take more time to build a war economy, but that will give Russia more time as well.

What do you think of these options?
1 The German goal was not all Aryan races under one flag
2 The war against Germany was an ideological war: on September 3 1939, Chamberlain said that the war would only finish when nazism was totally destroyed
3 No war /peace, phoney war in the West would not strengthen the Ostheer, it is the opposite : it would weaken the Ostheer,that the LW would be stronger,is irrelevant,as the RAF and the French aviation also would be stronger .
In the OTL, there were in September 1939 34 German divisions tied on the Westfront against a part of the French Army only .
In the OTL some 130 German divisions were facing 130 allied divisions in May 1940.
In the OTL ,some 50 German divisions were tied in June 1941 outside the East facing a British Army that was not capable to invade the continent .
In the ATL there would be more allied divisions in the west than in May 1940 and thus also more German divisions .
2 other points :
1 The longer Germany waited to attack in the west, the less chance it had to win : general time worked for the allies
2 The strength of the Ostheer was almost irrelevant : Germany lost with an Ostheer of 150 divisions, it could also lose with an Ostheer with more than 150 divisions or win with an Ostheer with less than 150 divisions,as winning/losing in the East was mainly depending on what the Soviets would/could do .

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Re: What if Germany just occupies the "Germanic" countries and doesn't attack France at all.

Post by Henri Winkelman » 15 Sep 2018 12:13

1 The German goal was not all Aryan races under one flag
2 The war against Germany was an ideological war: on September 3 1939, Chamberlain said that the war would only finish when nazism was totally destroyed.
Yeah, we know how much Chamberlain's words meant. ;) Although the Germans had more goals, one of them certainly was a Greater Germanic Reich.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greater_Germanic_Reich

I know attacking France (arch-enemy) and Russia (Untermenschen) was also one of their goals, but they could have taken more time to do it. Why not first prepare a total war economy in a greater Germanic empire and attack after that?
3 No war /peace, phoney war in the West would not strengthen the Ostheer, it is the opposite : it would weaken the Ostheer,that the LW would be stronger,is irrelevant,as the RAF and the French aviation also would be stronger .
In the OTL, there were in September 1939 34 German divisions tied on the Westfront against a part of the French Army only .
In the OTL some 130 German divisions were facing 130 allied divisions in May 1940.
In the OTL ,some 50 German divisions were tied in June 1941 outside the East facing a British Army that was not capable to invade the continent .
In the ATL there would be more allied divisions in the west than in May 1940 and thus also more German divisions .
2 other points :
1 The longer Germany waited to attack in the west, the less chance it had to win : general time worked for the allies
2 The strength of the Ostheer was almost irrelevant : Germany lost with an Ostheer of 150 divisions, it could also lose with an Ostheer with more than 150 divisions or win with an Ostheer with less than 150 divisions,as winning/losing in the East was mainly depending on what the Soviets would/could do .
This is a really valuable contribution. I didn't know about these numbers. So that leaves us with option 1 as the only realistic option: Consolidating a Greater Germanic Empire, incorporate all different cultures under German rule and language and build a bigger army. This might not take 10 years though, it might even take 30 or 40 years.

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RE: What If Germany Just Occupies The "GERMANIC" Countries And Does Not Attack France At All - (MACHTS NICHTS).

Post by Robert Rojas » 15 Sep 2018 14:40

Greetings to both citizen Henri Winkelman and the community as a whole. Howdy Henri! Well sir, in respect to your posting of Saturday - September 15, 2018 - 3:13am, old yours truly is of the school of thought that Adolf Hitler's continental designs will come to naught IF the all knowing Bohemian Corporal opts to support the Imperial Japanese Empire's decision to go to war with both the British Commonwealth and the United States of America. After Der Führer's formal declaration of war against the United States of America on December 10, 1941, the Fatherland will find itself in an expanding regional conflict with France, the British Commonwealth and the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics. Thanks to Adolf Hitler's strategic decision NOT to subdue THE THIRD REPUBLIC in year 1940, the United States of America will subsequently stage its own military build up DIRECTLY upon the soil of France from year 1942 and beyond. In terms of geopolitics, thanks to the miscalculations of Adolf Hitler, the likelihood of an earlier mounted SECOND FRONT becomes a stark reality for National Socialist Germany and deliverance for the hard pressed Union of Soviet Socialist Republics. Needless to say, the aerial war over continental Europe will take on a whole new character with the WESTERN ALLIANCE operating directly out of France. In addition, with the United States of America now entering the European conflict from the soil of France, I rather suspect that Fascist Italy will seek a "political accommodation" with the WESTERN ALLIANCE. Yes, there is much to ponder if Adolf Hitler's version of Disneyland is to survive until the fabled year of 1950. Incidentally, if you were amply impressed with citizen ljadw's finely detailed posting of Saturday - September 15, 2018 - 2:52am, just wait until the old boy addresses the broad reaching topic of petroleum! Well, that is my latest two cents or pfennigs worth on this now expansive topic of interest - for now anyway. In any case, I would like to bid you an especially copacetic day over in your corner of the ever bucolic Kingdom of the Netherlands.

Best Regards,
Uncle Bob :idea: :|
"It is well that war is so terrible, or we should grow too fond of it" - Robert E. Lee

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