If Poland keeps the Kresy, is the rest of Ukraine going to remain in Russia's orbit?

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Futurist
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If Poland keeps the Kresy, is the rest of Ukraine going to remain in Russia's orbit?

Post by Futurist » 24 Sep 2018 02:34

Here's my scenario: Britain and France confront Hitler over the Sudetenland. German Generals who are scared of a new World War quickly overthrow Hitler and the Nazis, thus preventing the outbreak of World War II. In this scenario, Poland is never attacked by Germany and thus gets to keep all of its 1937 territories (Poland never acquires Teschen in this scenario, though).

Fast-forward several decades later, and the Soviet Union still collapses either near the end of the 20th century or in the early 21st century. Now, my question is this:

Does the rest of Ukraine (as in, the parts of Ukraine that were previously under Soviet rule in this TL--which would exclude Galicia, Volhynia, northern Bukovina, Subcarpathian Ruthenia, and the Budjak) eventually fall back into Russia's orbit after the end of the Cold War in this scenario--perhaps with this process culminating in a new political union between Ukraine and Russia? Or does Ukraine still maintain its independence in this scenario and maintain a distance from Russia?

I know that Poland had a program to promote the break-up of the Soviet Union in the interwar years--a program which would have likely continued for decades in this scenario due to the lack of World War II:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prometheism

However, with Ukraine's most anti-Russian parts remaining under Polish rule, would there have been enough support in Ukraine for Ukraine to still pursue a pro-Western course in this scenario?

Any thoughts on this?

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Robert Rojas
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RE: If Poland Keeps The Kresy, Is The Rest Of Ukraine Going To Remain In Old Muscovy's Orbit?

Post by Robert Rojas » 24 Sep 2018 03:49

Greetings to both brother Futurist and the community as a whole. Howdy Futurist (or Alvin Toffler if you so prefer)! Well sir, in deference to your point OR points-of-view as articulated within your introductory posting of Sunday - September 23, 2018 - 5:34pm, it is the contention of old yours truly that this far reaching and open ended creation of yours is inherently unworkable. I even have my doubts if the Oracle of Delphi could foresee the myriad of events that WOULD and MUST transpire between year 1938 and year 1998 to make any rational sense of the events as you present them. JUST SAYING! Well, that's my initial two cents, pfennigs and kopecks worth on this exercise into wishful thinking - for now anyway. As always, I would like to bid you an especially copacetic day down in your corner of what was once our Golden State of California.

Best Regards From the Greater San Francisco Bay Area,
Uncle Bob :idea: :roll: :|
"It is well that war is so terrible, or we should grow too fond of it" - Robert E. Lee

Eugen Pinak
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Re: If Poland keeps the Kresy, is the rest of Ukraine going to remain in Russia's orbit?

Post by Eugen Pinak » 01 Oct 2018 20:12

Futurist wrote:
24 Sep 2018 02:34
Does the rest of Ukraine (as in, the parts of Ukraine that were previously under Soviet rule in this TL--which would exclude Galicia, Volhynia, northern Bukovina, Subcarpathian Ruthenia, and the Budjak) eventually fall back into Russia's orbit after the end of the Cold War in this scenario--perhaps with this process culminating in a new political union between Ukraine and Russia? Or does Ukraine still maintain its independence in this scenario and maintain a distance from Russia?
It will depend on the break-up scenario.

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