I could see Tom being right too if, as Glenn suggests, the Allies don't try an all-out effort in the MidEast.glenn239 wrote: ↑19 Jul 2021 22:00Yep, I see it, and you could be right. If the Allies decided to make their primar effort in Europe with Russia defeated, it would probably be something like TORCH.Tom from Cornwall wrote: ↑19 Jul 2021 21:16Glenn,
If you look at the FDR documents I posted up there is a statement by the President which flatly contradicts this suggestion. FDR saw Germany as the principal component of the Axis and the one that needed to be confronted immediately - or at least as soon as shipping and training of troops allowed.
My sense, given the extreme British concern for the Northern Front and FDR's explicit contingency planning in July (detailed in Tom's linked source), is that the Allies thought defending the MidEast was the priority.
But it's entirely possible they'd reach a conclusion something like my own or Glenn's: that if SU fell and Turkey was Axis or acquiescent, it would have been either impossible to defend or would have required too great a proportion of Allied resources. That was Marshall's judgment in July '42, if not yet FDR's.
If FDR/Churchill reach that conclusion, then I can see Torchlite - combined with Canaries invasion - being the Allies' first European move.
Indeed, depending on the circumstances of Spain's entry (i.e. has LW reinforced it?), taking Morocco might be a prerequisite for a successful Canaries invasion that doesn't require air support from the Pacific Fleet, thereby delaying morale-raising success in the Pacific and/or risking further Japanese advances in the Solomons.