Could a German invasion of Turkey succeed?

[Tom from Cornwall]

But, did Britain buy/propose to buy Soviet oil,to reduce the Soviet oil exports to Germany ?

Hi,

I don't know, but it was being discussed within British government circles in November 1939.

CAB63-112- Purchase of Russian Oil - Nov 39 - 1.JPG

CAB63-112- Purchase of Russian Oil - Nov 39 - 2.JPG

If I come across any more details, I'll put them up here.

Regards

Tom

[Tom from Cornwall]

Conceivably a massive earlier effort could have brought this forward but it's difficult to envision the resources for that effort.

Churchill was disappointed with progress, as can be seen in his message of 16 August 1942 to Clement Atlee (Deputy PM) from Moscow that the Trans-Persian route was only working 'at half what we hoped'. [Source Gilbert, 'The Road to Victory', p.205]

This is one of the early planning documents I have found in CAB63/157.

CAB63-157 - ME Railway Plans - Sep 41 - 1.JPG

CAB63-157 - ME Railway Plans - Sep 41 - 2.JPG

I'll have a look at the Eden papers to see if there are references to an Afghanistan route in there.

Regards

Tom

[Tom from Cornwall]

Churchill was disappointed with progress, as can be seen in his message of 16 August 1942 to Clement Atlee (Deputy PM) from Moscow that the Trans-Persian route was only working 'at half what we hoped'. [Source Gilbert, 'The Road to Victory', p.205]

Further to Churchill's nagging about the Trans-Persian route is this message to the UK from Tehran which I found in the Eden papers (FO 954-19A-202):

FO954-19A-202 - Persian Railway development - 12 Aug 42.JPG

Regards

Tom

[Tom from Cornwall]

I'd be interested to see whether this letter refers to the Zahedan route or something else. Zahedan/Mashhad are still in Iran but the far east part. Is that what "practically avoiding" Iran territory means? Like we'll just use a little of your territory? Or does this reference a route via Afghanistan?

The British were still pondering the possibility of a route through Afghanistan in November 1941 - this is from the COS Committee meeting of 21 November 1941 (CAB79/15/45):

CAB79-15-45 - Afghan Route - 21 Nov 41.JPG

I'll see if I can dig out the telegram that is referred to.

Regards

Tom

[TheMarcksPlan]

The British were still pondering the possibility of a route through Afghanistan in November 1941 -

This seems ludicrous; I'm interested to hear more. Funny/tragic in current times to read about concerns that the Afghans would fleece the Allies.

[Tom from Cornwall]

Earlier in this thread there was a discussion about the impact a loss of Middle East oil would have on the British Empire's war effort, I found this contemporary assessment by the UK Oil Control Board (21 Jul 42) and thought it might be of interest:

CAB66-27-18 - Oil Control Board - Loss of Persian supplies - 4 Aug 42.JPG

There is also a table showing the use which was made by the British Empire of Middle East oil at this point in the war. I can post that up too if anyone would like to see it.

Regards

Tom

[KDF33]

There is also a table showing the use which was made by the British Empire of Middle East oil at this point in the war. I can post that up too if anyone would like to see it.

Regards

Tom

Hi Tom,

Yes, I would be very interested.

Thank you!

[Tom from Cornwall]

Yes, I would be very interested.

No problem, here you go. I was slightly mistaken - rather than the use made of British Middle East oil the Annex contained the planned programme for its use over the 12 months from 1 Jul 42 to 30 Jun 43:

CAB-66-27-18 - WP (42) 338 - Oil Situation on Loss of Persian Oilfields - Annex - 4 Aug 42.JPG

I hope that is useful.

Regards

Tom

[Tom from Cornwall]

Tonight I came across a comment by Churchill on his predictions for dry cargo ship losses for 1943 which I thought was relevant to several 'what ifs' and might even offer some amusement to the readers of this thread, especially those of an over-deterministic 'what-if' personality.

CAB66-39-7 - WSC as Prophet.JPG

I thought it might also serve as a useful motto for those who are protective of their reputations as 'what if' prophets.

Regards

Tom