How many additional surviving Jews would there have been had the July 20th Plot succeeded?

Discussions on alternate history, including events up to 20 years before today.
Futurist
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How many additional surviving Jews would there have been had the July 20th Plot succeeded?

Post by Futurist » 26 Nov 2018 00:58

Had the July 20th Plot succeeded, how many additional surviving Jews would there have been?

I know that there were still around 67,000 surviving Jews in Lodz, Poland on July 20, 1944 and that all of Budapest's Jewish population was still alive during this time (a significant fraction was killed by the end of the war in May 1945). Where exactly was the potential for additional Jewish survivors in this scenario?

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wm
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Re: How many additional surviving Jews would there have been had the July 20th Plot succeeded?

Post by wm » 27 Nov 2018 19:28

It wasn't really a significant fraction and not Germans killed them but Hungarian fanatics.

There were hundreds of thousands of Jews in KZs and work camps, but unless the plotters send them home (and cripple Germany's war-making potential) they aren't going to fare better, Germany simply had no food for them.

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Re: How many additional surviving Jews would there have been had the July 20th Plot succeeded?

Post by Futurist » 30 Nov 2018 08:05

wm wrote:
27 Nov 2018 19:28
It wasn't really a significant fraction and not Germans killed them but Hungarian fanatics.
Would a non-Nazi German regime have actually supported the Hungarian Arrow Cross, though?
There were hundreds of thousands of Jews in KZs and work camps, but unless the plotters send them home (and cripple Germany's war-making potential) they aren't going to fare better, Germany simply had no food for them.
So, Germany was on the verge of starvation in mid-1944?

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Re: How many additional surviving Jews would there have been had the July 20th Plot succeeded?

Post by wm » 05 Jan 2019 21:52

As far as I know, Germany was on the verge of starvation all the time, there is an entire chapter dedicated to that in The Wages of Destruction, for example:
In light of the extension of the war into the indefinite future, Germany was facing a severe food problem. The German grain harvest in both 1940 and 1941 had been well below average and imports from the occupied territories had not made up the difference.
For lack of feed the swine herd had been reduced by 25 per cent since the start of the war, triggering a cut in meat rations as of June 1941.
Bread rations had only been sustained by making severe inroads into grain stocks. By the end of 1941, these were nearing exhaustion.
When the order to ship large numbers of Eastern workers to Germany for work was first given by Goering in November 1941, Backe protested vigorously. The 400,000 Soviet prisoners of war already in Germany were more than he could provide for.
Goering had spoken casually of feeding the Eastern workers on cats and horse-meat. Backe had consulted the statistics and reported glumly that there were not enough cats to provide a ration for the Eastern workers and horse-meat was already being used to supplement the rations of the German population.
Germany survived mostly thanks to unexpected bumper crops in Poland, Ukraine, and Belarus.

In Hungary, the Arrow Cross was the only reliable ally. The rest just waited for an opportunity to surrender to the Western Allies.

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Re: How many additional surviving Jews would there have been had the July 20th Plot succeeded?

Post by Futurist » 05 Jan 2019 22:10

wm wrote:
05 Jan 2019 21:52
As far as I know, Germany was on the verge of starvation all the time, there is an entire chapter dedicated to that in The Wages of Destruction, for example:
In light of the extension of the war into the indefinite future, Germany was facing a severe food problem. The German grain harvest in both 1940 and 1941 had been well below average and imports from the occupied territories had not made up the difference.
For lack of feed the swine herd had been reduced by 25 per cent since the start of the war, triggering a cut in meat rations as of June 1941.
Bread rations had only been sustained by making severe inroads into grain stocks. By the end of 1941, these were nearing exhaustion.
When the order to ship large numbers of Eastern workers to Germany for work was first given by Goering in November 1941, Backe protested vigorously. The 400,000 Soviet prisoners of war already in Germany were more than he could provide for.
Goering had spoken casually of feeding the Eastern workers on cats and horse-meat. Backe had consulted the statistics and reported glumly that there were not enough cats to provide a ration for the Eastern workers and horse-meat was already being used to supplement the rations of the German population.
Germany survived mostly thanks to unexpected bumper crops in Poland, Ukraine, and Belarus.
So, the Holocaust didn't "help" at all with this?
In Hungary, the Arrow Cross was the only reliable ally. The rest just waited for an opportunity to surrender to the Western Allies.
Romania also switched sides in 1944 after King Michael's Coup.

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Re: How many additional surviving Jews would there have been had the July 20th Plot succeeded?

Post by wm » 06 Jan 2019 00:03

The Holocaust helped but not decisively, after all the Jews were on starvation rations already.

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Re: How many additional surviving Jews would there have been had the July 20th Plot succeeded?

Post by Futurist » 06 Jan 2019 07:04

wm wrote:
06 Jan 2019 00:03
The Holocaust helped but not decisively, after all the Jews were on starvation rations already.
OK; understood.

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