How many lives would be saved if the July 20th Plot would have succeeded?

Discussions on alternate history, including events up to 20 years before today.
maltesefalcon
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Re: How many lives would be saved if the July 20th Plot would have succeeded?

Post by maltesefalcon » 08 Dec 2018 14:39

jesk wrote:
08 Dec 2018 11:51
In this case, the Germans easily destroyed the bridgeheads in Normandy. No problem in a few days. The second front with the landing is an adventure in which Hitler drew the world.
This is total nonsense. Although the breakout had not yet occurred, by July 20 the Allies had 1 million men in France. Plus total air and naval superiority. At best, Hitler's influence (or lack of same) could only have an incremental effect on the timeline or casualty rate.

jesk
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Re: How many lives would be saved if the July 20th Plot would have succeeded?

Post by jesk » 08 Dec 2018 16:03

maltesefalcon wrote:
08 Dec 2018 14:39
This is total nonsense. Although the breakout had not yet occurred, by July 20 the Allies had 1 million men in France. Plus total air and naval superiority. At best, Hitler's influence (or lack of same) could only have an incremental effect on the timeline or casualty rate.
Infantry accounted 6% of the US military. Britain for the war with Germany has allocated only 15 divisions. For combat units, the ratio was in favor of the Germans, but the Fuhrer was afraid of new amphibious operations, and even in the beginning of August up to 15 divisions were inactive in northern France.

jesk
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Re: How many lives would be saved if the July 20th Plot would have succeeded?

Post by jesk » 08 Dec 2018 17:09

Until the beginning of July, in 25 days of war, 15 American divisions landed in France. What are Germans? 66 divisions in the west in June 1944, 12 in Norway. 78 free to use divisions.
https://www.axishistory.com/list-all-ca ... rld-war-ii

25 in combat; 32%. What if 72%?

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Sid Guttridge
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Re: How many lives would be saved if the July 20th Plot would have succeeded?

Post by Sid Guttridge » 08 Dec 2018 18:19

Hi Guys,

If the July 20th Bomb Plot had succeeded and was followed by a quick unconditional surrender, the big gainers would be the Germans, as almost half their fatalities occurred after 20th July 1944.

By contrast, probably all of their opponents, but particularly the Russians, had probably already suffered the clear majority of their losses before 20th July 1944.

Cheers,

Sid

jesk
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Re: How many lives would be saved if the July 20th Plot would have succeeded?

Post by jesk » 08 Dec 2018 18:52

Sid Guttridge wrote:
08 Dec 2018 18:19
Hi Guys,

If the July 20th Bomb Plot had succeeded and was followed by a quick unconditional surrender, the big gainers would be the Germans, as almost half their fatalities occurred after 20th July 1944.

By contrast, probably all of their opponents, but particularly the Russians, had probably already suffered the clear majority of their losses before 20th July 1944.

Cheers,

Sid
It is bad that your worldview filters even the most indisputable facts. In June, the Germans brought 32% of their forces in the west into battle. What if 72%? Maybe a new Dunkirk?

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maltesefalcon
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Re: How many lives would be saved if the July 20th Plot would have succeeded?

Post by maltesefalcon » 08 Dec 2018 20:16

May one politely request that you start a new thread instead of derailing this one by discussing theories not related to the topic at hand?

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Robert Rojas
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RE: How Many Lives Would Be Saved If The July 20th Plot Would Have Succeeded?

Post by Robert Rojas » 09 Dec 2018 02:12

Greetings to both citizen Jesk and the community as a whole. Howdy Jesk! Well sir, in light of your posting of Saturday - December 08, 2018 - 9:52am, old yours truly must heartily concur with the sentiments of cousin Maltese Falcon as articulated within his notation of Saturday - December 08, 2018 - 11:16am. Undoubtedly, there are a multitude of Forum Members who would take great relish in discussing the PROS and CONS of the battle OR battles for the Normandy Bridgehead - including your incredulous solution for the destruction of the Normandy Bridgehead. However, I rather doubt if brother Futurist will see the topical relevance of your interjection of the passion play that was the Normandy Bridgehead into the body of HIS creation. Now, with that said, you might want to acquaint yourself with the Wehrmacht's Operation Luttich which was fought between August 07, 1944 and August 13, 1944 and the unmitigated catastrophe that befell those participating formations courtesy of Anglo-American airpower. So, keeping on topic, how many lives would be saved if the July 20th Plot would have succeeded? I, for one, do not have the slightest clue how to offer a reasoned answer to that weighty and far reaching question. Well, that's my reluctant initial two Yankee cents worth on this latest open ended fishing expedition emanating from Orange County, California - for now anyway. As always, I would like to bid you an especially copacetic day over in your corner of White Russia.


Best Regards,
Uncle Bob :idea: :roll: :|
"It is well that war is so terrible, or we should grow too fond of it" - Robert E. Lee

jesk
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Re: How many lives would be saved if the July 20th Plot would have succeeded?

Post by jesk » 09 Dec 2018 08:12

operation Lüttich quite simple

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Lüttich

The assault was ordered by Adolf Hitler, to eliminate the gains made by the First United States Army during Operation Cobra and the subsequent weeks, and by reaching the coast in the region of Avranches at the base of the Cotentin peninsula, cut off the units of the Third United States Army which had advanced into Brittany.

As the German commanders on the spot had warned Hitler in vain, there was little chance of the attack succeeding, and the concentration of their armoured reserves at the western end of the front in Normandy soon led to disaster, as they were outflanked to their south and the front to their east collapsed, resulting in many of the German troops in Normandy being trapped in the Falaise Pocket.

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Re: How many lives would be saved if the July 20th Plot would have succeeded?

Post by DerGiLLster » 10 Dec 2018 11:29

Helmut0815 wrote:
02 Dec 2018 18:59
Well, it is frequently stated, especially in Germany's TV history channel, that in the following months between the July plot and the unconditional surrender of the german armed forced in May 1945 more humans got killed than in the entire five years of WWII before. I find this claim highly doubtful or is it fact?

regards


Helmut
Ian Kershaw did write a book about it. According to his research, 49 percent of the casualties occured in the last ten months of the war, between the July Plot and VE Day.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_End:_ ... E2%80%9345
T. A. Gardner wrote:
02 Dec 2018 23:37

Very possibly. It might have reduced Soviet casualties signifantly, but the Soviets were likely to still occupy much of Germany and then brutalize it. I could see them forcing the surrender of more troops into their custody as the Eastern Front would still be in Poland. That would likely result in far more German troops ending up in the Soviet gulag system than historically occured.

It woudl save the US and Britain some casualties, but for the most part they weren't taking really heavy casualties to begin with by 1944.

I also suspect that many concentration camps would still massacre their prisoners simply to eliminate them from being able to identify the guards, who would recognize their potential for being found criminals.
The Soviets couldn't have brutalized them more than they already did. With a faster ending to the war, it would fair better for the Germans as they wouldn't appear as stubborn as they are seen OTL.

I don't deny the Soviet had their share of war crimes. But nation can compare to the evils done by Germany and Japan. Nothing ever comes close to it.

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Re: How many lives would be saved if the July 20th Plot would have succeeded?

Post by Sid Guttridge » 10 Dec 2018 14:03

Hi Jesk,

Your post doesn't seem to address anything I wrote, even though it is addressed to me.

Please clarify.

Cheers,

Sid.

jesk
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Re: How many lives would be saved if the July 20th Plot would have succeeded?

Post by jesk » 10 Dec 2018 16:23

Sid Guttridge wrote:
10 Dec 2018 14:03
Hi Jesk,

Your post doesn't seem to address anything I wrote, even though it is addressed to me.

Please clarify.

Cheers,

Sid.
Without Hitler, the Germans have good prospects to win the battle for Normandy. Analysis of the combat situation allows to come to a conclusion. You wrote about the inevitable surrender. Why should the Germans surrender?

Sid Guttridge
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Re: How many lives would be saved if the July 20th Plot would have succeeded?

Post by Sid Guttridge » 11 Dec 2018 13:47

Hi Jesk,

Without Hitler Germany wouldn't have risked war in the first place, as professional military opinion in the late 1930s thought Germany's prospects were poor. There would therefore have been no conquests and no Battle of Normandy.

Are you suggesting that the Germans might have had better prospects militarily if they had dumped Hitler in mid war, say some time in 1942, before the mass murder of the Jews was fully under way and before the Allies had made unconditional surrender demands? If so, I might be tempted to agree with you.

Cheers,

Sid.

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Re: How many lives would be saved if the July 20th Plot would have succeeded?

Post by Carl Schwamberger » 11 Dec 2018 16:14

maltesefalcon wrote:
08 Dec 2018 20:16
May one politely request that you start a new thread instead of derailing this one by discussing theories not related to the topic at hand?
Sid Guttridge wrote:
10 Dec 2018 14:03
Hi Jesk,

Your post doesn't seem to address anything I wrote, even though it is addressed to me.

Please clarify.

Cheers,

Sid.
None of this is unusual for this individual. His posts frequently appear agenda driven & often lack clear connection to the other posts in a thread. Whenever you feel this is the casecase I'd recommend ignoring the digressions & better spend your time and bandwidth addressing the topic & productive discussion.

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Re: How many lives would be saved if the July 20th Plot would have succeeded?

Post by Carl Schwamberger » 11 Dec 2018 16:29

DerGiLLster wrote:
10 Dec 2018 11:29
...

Ian Kershaw did write a book about it. According to his research, 49 percent of the casualties occured in the last ten months of the war, between the July Plot and VE Day.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_End:_ ... E2%80%9345 ...
Have not time to dig deep into that. Have seen similar numbers and conclusions elsewhere. It does appear on the surface that a huge portion of those deaths were outside of the ground battles. That is not among the field armies. Soldiers and civilians killed by air attacks outside the ground battle zone, accelerated killing of the Jews and others marked for the Final Solution, some others from malnutrition or declining medical care. I'm recalling that in the last ten months over 5000 German soldiers were subject to the death penalty for alleged or actual desertion.

While a early surrender some time in August-November waives much of that away a high number of deaths should still be expected from the residual disruption of food distribution, reduced medical care, lack of shelter & heat. Most of the prisoners in the nazi occupied territories were in poor health, many already in extremis & could not be expected to survive a autumn or winter while better diet and other improvement had their effect. So, while combat deaths might cease much sooner these other factors would result in several million post war deaths in the next few months. I suspect a analysis of the deaths between April & September or December 1945 might give a few clues in this direction.

maltesefalcon
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Re: How many lives would be saved if the July 20th Plot would have succeeded?

Post by maltesefalcon » 11 Dec 2018 18:39

Agreed. And as pointed out earlier, both the Ostfront and Pacific Theatre battles will still occur, but perhaps on a slightly altered time line. Since these theatres account for much of the final death tally, only an incremental change at best if tbe July 20 plot proceeds at all, let alone succeeds in a seperate peace in the West.

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