If France doesn't fall in 1940 and the Western Allies win the war, is Hungary forced to give back its territorial gains?

Discussions on alternate history, including events up to 20 years before today. Hosted by Terry Duncan.
Futurist
Member
Posts: 1774
Joined: 24 Dec 2015 00:02
Location: SoCal

If France doesn't fall in 1940 and the Western Allies win the war, is Hungary forced to give back its territorial gains?

Post by Futurist » 17 Dec 2018 07:51

This might seem like a sort of random question but I might as well ask it anyway: If France doesn't fall in 1940 and the Western Allies (meaning Britain and France, and excluding the U.S.--which doesn't enter the war in this scenario since there's no need for it) subsequently win the war, do they make Hungary give up the territories that it acquired at Czechoslovakia's expense in 1938-1939?

Here's a map for reference:

Image

Since France never falls in this scenario, Hungary never gains any territories at either Romania's or Yugoslavia's expense. Its acquisition of southern Slovakia and Subcarpathian Ruthenia were made before World War II and thus don't change in this scenario, though.

As for my own thoughts on this, I think that Hungary is going to have to give up Subcarpathian Ruthenia in any case since it can't lay a claim on it based on ethnic grounds (the majority of the population there is Ukrainian, not Hungarian). As for what happens to southern Slovakia (the First Vienna Award territories on this map), I think that it's going to depend on what Britain and France decide to do in regards to the Sudetenland. If they let Germany keep it, they're probably going to let Hungary keep southern Slovakia. If not, though, then Hungary probably loses southern Slovakia as well.

Also, Yes, I know that Hungary remains neutral in World War II in this scenario. However, given that Hungary is such a military pipsqueak, I certainly don't think that Britain and France are going to have any problems giving Hungary an ultimatum after it looks like they will defeat Germany. After all, Hungary also benefited from the break-up of Czechoslovakia and if Britain and France are going to want to rectify this wrong, they are going to have to deal with Hungary as well.

Anyway, any thoughts on this?

Sid Guttridge
Member
Posts: 7096
Joined: 12 Jun 2008 11:19

Re: If France doesn't fall in 1940 and the Western Allies win the war, is Hungary forced to give back its territorial ga

Post by Sid Guttridge » 17 Dec 2018 18:16

Yes.

Allied victory would re-establish the Versailles order, which would almost certainly mean surrendering the territory Hungary had gained off pro-Allied states of the Little Entente like Czechoslovakia, Romania and Yugoslavia. I would expect both Romania and Yugoslavia to attack Hungary as soon as it was clear the Anglo-French had Germany in trouble.

Cheers,

Sid.

Futurist
Member
Posts: 1774
Joined: 24 Dec 2015 00:02
Location: SoCal

Re: If France doesn't fall in 1940 and the Western Allies win the war, is Hungary forced to give back its territorial ga

Post by Futurist » 17 Dec 2018 22:04

Sid Guttridge wrote:
17 Dec 2018 18:16
Yes.

Allied victory would re-establish the Versailles order, which would almost certainly mean surrendering the territory Hungary had gained off pro-Allied states of the Little Entente like Czechoslovakia, Romania and Yugoslavia. I would expect both Romania and Yugoslavia to attack Hungary as soon as it was clear the Anglo-French had Germany in trouble.

Cheers,

Sid.
I don't think that Hungary would have made any territorial gains at either Romania's or Yugoslavia's expense if France doesn't fall in 1940. Indeed, I have said just this in my original post here. Thus, there would be no reason for either Romania or Yugoslavia to attack Hungary in this scenario.

Your point about restoring the Versailles order is something that I agree with, however. As I wrote above, this is why I believe that Britain and France will at the very least force Hungary to give up Subcarpathian Ruthenia after the end of the war.

Sid Guttridge
Member
Posts: 7096
Joined: 12 Jun 2008 11:19

Re: If France doesn't fall in 1940 and the Western Allies win the war, is Hungary forced to give back its territorial ga

Post by Sid Guttridge » 18 Dec 2018 11:09

Hi Futurist,

Clearly I did not read your original post carefully enough. Sorry!

I think that restoration of the Versailles order would necessitate that the Hungarians be made to give up Ruthenia, most of which wasn't Hungarian populated, and even southern Slovakia, which was.

The real question would be what punishment, additional to Versailles, would Germany be made to undergo because it had stated a second war? If the USSR could be made to give up eastern Poland, that country would presumably have to be compensated at Germany's expense.

Cheers,

Sid.

Futurist
Member
Posts: 1774
Joined: 24 Dec 2015 00:02
Location: SoCal

Re: If France doesn't fall in 1940 and the Western Allies win the war, is Hungary forced to give back its territorial ga

Post by Futurist » 10 Jan 2019 02:25

Sid Guttridge wrote:
18 Dec 2018 11:09
Hi Futurist,

Clearly I did not read your original post carefully enough. Sorry!

I think that restoration of the Versailles order would necessitate that the Hungarians be made to give up Ruthenia, most of which wasn't Hungarian populated, and even southern Slovakia, which was.

The real question would be what punishment, additional to Versailles, would Germany be made to undergo because it had stated a second war? If the USSR could be made to give up eastern Poland, that country would presumably have to be compensated at Germany's expense.

Cheers,

Sid.
Don't worry about it!

Also, if Hungary is forced to give up not only Subcarpathian Ruthenia, but also southern Slovakia, then Germany would have to give up the Sudetenland. After all, I can't imagine the Western Allies allowing Germany to keep the Sudetenland if Hungary is forced to give up southern Slovakia.

As for the USSR giving up eastern Poland, why exactly would it do that? Also, what exactly can the Western Allies offer it in exchange for eastern Poland? East Prussia? Poland probably wants East Prussia for itself.

User avatar
wm
Member
Posts: 4902
Joined: 29 Dec 2006 20:11
Location: Poland

Re: If France doesn't fall in 1940 and the Western Allies win the war, is Hungary forced to give back its territorial ga

Post by wm » 11 Jan 2019 20:51

Hungarian gains were mostly (as the Munich Agreement) legal from the point of view of international law.
For that reason Britain repudiated the Munich Agreement as late as 1942, and even that after the Germans committed war crimes in Czechoslovakia.

Futurist
Member
Posts: 1774
Joined: 24 Dec 2015 00:02
Location: SoCal

Re: If France doesn't fall in 1940 and the Western Allies win the war, is Hungary forced to give back its territorial ga

Post by Futurist » 12 Jan 2019 01:20

wm wrote:
11 Jan 2019 20:51
Hungarian gains were mostly (as the Munich Agreement) legal from the point of view of international law.
For that reason Britain repudiated the Munich Agreement as late as 1942, and even that after the Germans committed war crimes in Czechoslovakia.
AFAIK, Subcarpathian Ruthenia was not part of the Munich Agreement.

Sid Guttridge
Member
Posts: 7096
Joined: 12 Jun 2008 11:19

Re: If France doesn't fall in 1940 and the Western Allies win the war, is Hungary forced to give back its territorial ga

Post by Sid Guttridge » 12 Jan 2019 10:28

Hi wm,

You write that most Hungarian claims were legal from the point of view of international law.

Yup, but so were, and are, the territorial provisions of the Treaty of Trianon that established Hungary's borders in 1920 and still do so today.

Cheers,

Sid.

User avatar
wm
Member
Posts: 4902
Joined: 29 Dec 2006 20:11
Location: Poland

Re: If France doesn't fall in 1940 and the Western Allies win the war, is Hungary forced to give back its territorial ga

Post by wm » 12 Jan 2019 13:36

Certainly but generally it is assumed the newer treaty supersedes/modifies the older one.

Futurist
Member
Posts: 1774
Joined: 24 Dec 2015 00:02
Location: SoCal

Re: If France doesn't fall in 1940 and the Western Allies win the war, is Hungary forced to give back its territorial ga

Post by Futurist » 12 Jan 2019 22:48

wm wrote:
12 Jan 2019 13:36
Certainly but generally it is assumed the newer treaty supersedes/modifies the older one.
To be fair, though, the Western Allies can declare war on Hungary and impose a new treaty after they defeat Hungary.

User avatar
wm
Member
Posts: 4902
Joined: 29 Dec 2006 20:11
Location: Poland

Re: If France doesn't fall in 1940 and the Western Allies win the war, is Hungary forced to give back its territorial ga

Post by wm » 13 Jan 2019 00:19

I don't think many Britons and especially Americans would support wanton wars.
I'm sure Mr. Churchill would agree, considering his landslide defeat in 1945.

Futurist
Member
Posts: 1774
Joined: 24 Dec 2015 00:02
Location: SoCal

Re: If France doesn't fall in 1940 and the Western Allies win the war, is Hungary forced to give back its territorial ga

Post by Futurist » 13 Jan 2019 00:21

wm wrote:
13 Jan 2019 00:19
I don't think many Britons and especially Americans would support wanton wars.
I'm sure Mr. Churchill would agree, considering his landslide defeat in 1945.
Hungary was a military pipsqueak and it would serve them right for previously collaborating with Hitler, though.

Futurist
Member
Posts: 1774
Joined: 24 Dec 2015 00:02
Location: SoCal

Re: If France doesn't fall in 1940 and the Western Allies win the war, is Hungary forced to give back its territorial ga

Post by Futurist » 13 Jan 2019 00:22

Also, the US won't enter the war if France doesn't fall. As for France and the UK, after a long fight with the Nazis, they might be determined to undo all of Hitler's territorial revisions--even those made before the start of WWII.

User avatar
wm
Member
Posts: 4902
Joined: 29 Dec 2006 20:11
Location: Poland

Re: If France doesn't fall in 1940 and the Western Allies win the war, is Hungary forced to give back its territorial ga

Post by wm » 13 Jan 2019 12:18

They say the Hungarian Army was up to 1,000,000 soldiers in 1944 and larger than the British and French Armies combined.

Sid Guttridge
Member
Posts: 7096
Joined: 12 Jun 2008 11:19

Re: If France doesn't fall in 1940 and the Western Allies win the war, is Hungary forced to give back its territorial ga

Post by Sid Guttridge » 14 Jan 2019 07:35

Hi wm,

You are right - not , ".....many Britons and especially Americans would support wanton wars". On the other hand they probably did support the staus quo ante bellum established by Versailles, Trianon, etc.

I am not sure what Churchill's election defeat in 1945 had to do with the matter. Churchill did not invade Poland, it wasn't him who declared war and the war against Nazi Germany certainly wasn't "wanton"! Besides, it wasn't his conduct of the war that cost him the 1945 election, but perceptions about whether he was the right man to win the peace that followed.

Who are the "They" who supposedly contend that in 1944 the Hungarian Army was ".....larger than the British and French armies combined"? The British Army peaked at over 4,500,000 men in 1944 and the French had 1,250,000 under arms by the end of the war.

You may be confusing this with the assertion that Romania, briefly in the autumn of 1944, had the fourth largest Allied army in Europe, until overtaken by the rearming Poles and French

Cheers,

Sid.

Return to “What if”