If France takes an extra year to fall, does Germany have the resources to invade the USSR?

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Futurist
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If France takes an extra year to fall, does Germany have the resources to invade the USSR?

Post by Futurist » 18 Dec 2018 06:58

Would Nazi Germany have still had the resources to invade the USSR if France would have held out for an additional year before falling?

If so, how would a 1942 Operation Barbarossa unfold in this scenario?

If not, what does Nazi Germany do?

Sid Guttridge
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Re: If France takes an extra year to fall, does Germany have the resources to invade the USSR?

Post by Sid Guttridge » 18 Dec 2018 11:38

It probably depends on the attrition Germany suffered itself against France and presumably a larger British Army.

One reason why Germany had the human and materiel resources to be able to invade the USSR in 1941 was that its losses of both in the "blitzkrieg" campaigns of 1939-40 had been remarkably light. If the French had held out for a year, it implies some large scale, competitive fighting during that time. If the German losses were on a similar scale to those suffered in the first year of the war against the USSR, then they might seriously have constricted their ability to launch a similar, full front, campaign as Barbarossa in 1942.

Sid

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Re: If France takes an extra year to fall, does Germany have the resources to invade the USSR?

Post by Hanny » 18 Dec 2018 14:48

SU traded/exported during 12 months, 40/41 to Germany:
1,600,000 tons of grains
900,000 tons of oil
200,000 tons of cotton
140,000 tons of manganese
200,000 tons of phosphates
20,000 tons of chrome ore
18,000 tons of rubber
100,000 tons of soybeans
500,000 tons of iron ores
300,000 tons of scrap metal and pig iron
2,000 kilograms of platinum

So if France takes a year extra, ( longer phoney war? possible or longer fighting once it start?, less likley) Germany gains maybe twice that, if not more, ( AH asked for more in 42 and stalin agreed to it all) and SU has effectivly given AH vastly more of what he thinks he needs to invade with.
To strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield.

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Re: If France takes an extra year to fall, does Germany have the resources to invade the USSR?

Post by maltesefalcon » 18 Dec 2018 14:58

As is typical with this poster's scenarios, there is virtually no detail. What was changed to prevent the Allied collapse in 1940?

Were Belgium and Holland still in the war?
What losses did occur on both sides? (IRL although personnel losses were light, Germany lost about 20-25% of their tanks and aircraft in 6 weeks in the French campaign. Add to that the losses in B of B.)

Did France and UK receive the extra aircraft the USA was building for them IRL?

etc etc.

If no details are provided one could make the argument that if France wasn't defeated in 6 weeks as IRL, they may not be defeated at all.

One more thing. If Barbarossa were delayed until 1942, America would be in the war by now.

Here is a link to a What If I posted some time back as well:

viewtopic.php?f=11&t=36728&p=330497&hil ... ce#p330497

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Re: If France takes an extra year to fall, does Germany have the resources to invade the USSR?

Post by Hanny » 18 Dec 2018 17:27

USA in the war by 1942?, dont they have enough to do with an invasion from Mars?.
To strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield.

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RE: If France Takes An Extra Year To Fall, Does Germany Have The Resources To Invade The U.S.S.R.?

Post by Robert Rojas » 19 Dec 2018 05:14

Greetings to both brother Futurist and the community as a whole. Howdy Futurist (or Alvin Toffler if you so prefer)! Well sir, in respect to your introductory posting of Monday - December 17, 2018 - 9:58pm, old yours truly was more than a wee bit curious about the political status and military disposition of Fascist Italy during the course of events as your revised passion play unfolds. If my recollection serves, Il Duce brought his nation into the European conflict on June 10, 1940. So, if National Socialist Germany is having a much tougher go of it from the very outset of its Summer offensive, will Il Duce get cold feet and reconsider his options for involving Fascist Italy in the all knowing Bohemian Corporal's enterprise in Western Europe? In addition, should the conflict in Western Europe drag into year 1941, have you considered how the Wehrmacht's overall situation will be impacted by a potential military intervention into Yugoslavia on or after March 27, 1941? Diplomatically, one must inquire if the nations of Bulgaria, Romania and Hungary will reconsider their options and decline their respective "invitations" to join the Axis Alliance. Upon observing those political developments, on must also inquire if Slovakia would quietly consider extricating itself from the Axis Alliance. Finally, in light of the Wehrmacht's less than stellar battlefield performance in Western Europe, will Finland have its own second thoughts about its potential involvement in yet another costly conflict with the Soviet Union? There is much to ponder. Well, that's my initial two Yankee cents worth on this sojourn into the great unknown - for now anyway. As always, I would like to bid you an especially copacetic day down in your corner of Orange County in Southern California.


Best Regards From The Greater San Francisco Bay Area!
Uncle Bob :idea: :|
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Re: If France takes an extra year to fall, does Germany have the resources to invade the USSR?

Post by Hoplophile » 03 Jan 2019 22:32

There is much wisdom in the offerings of Uncle Bob. A year's worth of Stellungskrieg in the West would have had implications for countries other than Germany and the Soviet Union. That said, I think that the most likely result of a Battle of France that lasted until the summer of 1941 would have been a very aggressive Soviet policy in Eastern Europe. Even if Stalin refrains from the sort of grand attack described by the pseudonymous Viktor Suvorov, he would be sorely tempted to seize additional territory in Eastern Europe, with the most lucrative target being Romania. Indeed, if Stalin made such a move while the German forces were fully engaged in the West, there is little that Hitler could have done. I suspect that Stalin would also have made use of the situation to finish Finland, an operation that, in our time line, was interrupted, at least in part, by Stalin's fear of engaging in a protracted war at a time when the Germans enjoyed a great deal of strategic flexibility. To put things another way, had the war in the West continued for a year, Stalin's behavior in the late 1940 and early 1941 would have resembled his behavior in late 1939 and early 1940.

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Re: If France takes an extra year to fall, does Germany have the resources to invade the USSR?

Post by Futurist » 03 Jan 2019 23:48

Hoplophile wrote:
03 Jan 2019 22:32
There is much wisdom in the offerings of Uncle Bob. A year's worth of Stellungskrieg in the West would have had implications for countries other than Germany and the Soviet Union. That said, I think that the most likely result of a Battle of France that lasted until the summer of 1941 would have been a very aggressive Soviet policy in Eastern Europe. Even if Stalin refrains from the sort of grand attack described by the pseudonymous Viktor Suvorov, he would be sorely tempted to seize additional territory in Eastern Europe, with the most lucrative target being Romania. Indeed, if Stalin made such a move while the German forces were fully engaged in the West, there is little that Hitler could have done. I suspect that Stalin would also have made use of the situation to finish Finland, an operation that, in our time line, was interrupted, at least in part, by Stalin's fear of engaging in a protracted war at a time when the Germans enjoyed a great deal of strategic flexibility. To put things another way, had the war in the West continued for a year, Stalin's behavior in the late 1940 and early 1941 would have resembled his behavior in late 1939 and early 1940.
What about having Stalin demand Subcarpathian Ruthenia from Hungary or the Kars region from Turkey?

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Re: If France takes an extra year to fall, does Germany have the resources to invade the USSR?

Post by Hoplophile » 04 Jan 2019 02:27

The big prize for Stalin would be the Romanian oil fields. Once he took those, he would control the spigot for a very large portion of the German oil supply. Thus, any significant seizure of territory from Hungary would take place after the conquest of Romania. Indeed, Stalin may enlist Hungarian help in the conquest of Romania by offering southern Transylvania. (Needless to say, Hungarian enjoyment of that acquisition would last about as long as the Polish occupation of Teschen.)

As far as Turkey goes, I think that Stalin would leave that country alone until after he had finished with Germany. With the memory of the Basmachi revolts fresh in his mind, the last thing he wanted was any augmentation of the Muslim and Turkish-speaking populations of his empire.

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