Would the Central Powers have accepted a compromise peace with Russia on these terms in 1915 or 1916?

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Futurist
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Would the Central Powers have accepted a compromise peace with Russia on these terms in 1915 or 1916?

Post by Futurist » 24 Dec 2018 04:57

Here's the compromise peace:

-Germany acquires Poland, Lithuania, and Courland as German puppet states.
-Russia acquires eastern Galicia, Ottoman Armenia, and Trebizond from Austria and the Ottoman Empire, respectively.
-Neither side has to pay any reparations or indemnities.
-Germany gives Russia a free hand in Persia, Afghanistan, and the Far East (as in, East Asia) in any future conflicts which Russia may have there.

How exactly does this peace deal sound? Would the Central Powers have accepted this peace deal?

ljadw
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Re: Would the Central Powers have accepted a compromise peace with Russia on these terms in 1915 or 1916?

Post by ljadw » 26 Dec 2018 13:56

You forget one thing ,which is that Russia would never propose such a compromise peace

South
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Re: Would the Central Powers have accepted a compromise peace with Russia on these terms in 1915 or 1916?

Post by South » 26 Dec 2018 14:17

Good morning Futurist,

Do you know the route of the Chinese Eastern Railroad. the shortcut of the Trans Siberian Railroad to Vladivostok ?

Do you know the location of Hong Kong BCC ? ... or the Philippines ? ... or Japan ? Review your "Germany gives Russia ... ( as in E. Asia......".

Do you know about Rosa Luxemburg and her Bavarian Heaven ?

Do you know anything of the Ru-Ja War of 1904-05 ?

You are frequently leaving the realm of history here at AHF.


~ Bob
eastern Virginia, USA

Futurist
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Re: Would the Central Powers have accepted a compromise peace with Russia on these terms in 1915 or 1916?

Post by Futurist » 27 Dec 2018 23:56

South wrote:
26 Dec 2018 14:17
Good morning Futurist,

Do you know the route of the Chinese Eastern Railroad. the shortcut of the Trans Siberian Railroad to Vladivostok ?
Yep.
Do you know the location of Hong Kong BCC ? ... or the Philippines ? ... or Japan ? Review your "Germany gives Russia ... ( as in E. Asia......".
Oh, sure, Russia will have to compete with Britain, the U.S., and Japan in East Asia. However, at least the German threat would have been reduced.
Do you know about Rosa Luxemburg and her Bavarian Heaven ?
Bavarian Heaven?
Do you know anything of the Ru-Ja War of 1904-05 ?
Yep, and Russia can try for a rematch at some future point in time.
You are frequently leaving the realm of history here at AHF.
We'll see about that. :)

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Terry Duncan
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Re: Would the Central Powers have accepted a compromise peace with Russia on these terms in 1915 or 1916?

Post by Terry Duncan » 30 Dec 2018 14:10

Futurist wrote:
24 Dec 2018 04:57
Here's the compromise peace:

1) -Germany acquires Poland, Lithuania, and Courland as German puppet states.
2) -Russia acquires eastern Galicia, Ottoman Armenia, and Trebizond from Austria and the Ottoman Empire, respectively.
3) -Neither side has to pay any reparations or indemnities.
4) -Germany gives Russia a free hand in Persia, Afghanistan, and the Far East (as in, East Asia) in any future conflicts which Russia may have there.

How exactly does this peace deal sound? Would the Central Powers have accepted this peace deal?
Who is making the compromises?

1 - Austria is most unlikely to want to give up its part of Poland, especially as Germany is actually giving up nothing at all.

2 - Russia already has eastern Galicia, unless you mean the Austrian part of Galicia, if so, why is Austria giving up these areas? Ottoman Armenia and Trebizond are not really areas Russia was interested in primarily, but the Ottomans are never going to agree.

3 - It looks like Germany grabs some land and everyone else loses something.

4 - Germany cannot give Russia a free hand in areas Germany has no connection with, or ability to influence unless Germany proposes to fight Britain on behalf of Russia if a war breaks out. As to the Far East, the Anglo-Japanese alliance is still in place and Russia is not likely to want to fight both Britain and Japan in areas where she will have trouble bringing her numbers to bear. Again, Germany is not going to fight over an issue arising from this area, this is one of the reasons Anglo-German talks collapsed in the early 1900s.

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Re: Would the Central Powers have accepted a compromise peace with Russia on these terms in 1915 or 1916?

Post by Futurist » 31 Dec 2018 06:54

Terry Duncan wrote:
30 Dec 2018 14:10
Futurist wrote:
24 Dec 2018 04:57
Here's the compromise peace:

1) -Germany acquires Poland, Lithuania, and Courland as German puppet states.
2) -Russia acquires eastern Galicia, Ottoman Armenia, and Trebizond from Austria and the Ottoman Empire, respectively.
3) -Neither side has to pay any reparations or indemnities.
4) -Germany gives Russia a free hand in Persia, Afghanistan, and the Far East (as in, East Asia) in any future conflicts which Russia may have there.

How exactly does this peace deal sound? Would the Central Powers have accepted this peace deal?
Who is making the compromises?

1 - Austria is most unlikely to want to give up its part of Poland, especially as Germany is actually giving up nothing at all.

2 - Russia already has eastern Galicia, unless you mean the Austrian part of Galicia, if so, why is Austria giving up these areas? Ottoman Armenia and Trebizond are not really areas Russia was interested in primarily, but the Ottomans are never going to agree.

3 - It looks like Germany grabs some land and everyone else loses something.

4 - Germany cannot give Russia a free hand in areas Germany has no connection with, or ability to influence unless Germany proposes to fight Britain on behalf of Russia if a war breaks out. As to the Far East, the Anglo-Japanese alliance is still in place and Russia is not likely to want to fight both Britain and Japan in areas where she will have trouble bringing her numbers to bear. Again, Germany is not going to fight over an issue arising from this area, this is one of the reasons Anglo-German talks collapsed in the early 1900s.
1. Austria can keep its part of Poland if it wants to and if Germany is OK with this. Russia doesn't really care about who gets Poland.

2. Russia occupied eastern Galicia during WWI, but it was still officially Austrian territory. Russia is going to want to outright annex eastern Galicia in this scenario due to its Ukrainian-majority population. It could also demand Subcarpathian Ruthenia, but that would obviously be a no-go due to its strategic location. Thus, Russia will be fine with simply acquiring eastern Galicia.

As for Ottoman Armenia and Trebizond, those areas could become Russia's Florida at some future point in time if Russia were to annex them. Thus, trying to acquire these territories seems like a good investment. As for the Ottomans refusing to agree to this, that would be their choice, but they risk losing much more if Russia refuses to make a separate peace. If Russia is out of the war, the Ottomans can deploy more forces against the British.

3. Austria could also gain land in Poland if it wants, though Yes, it will lose eastern Galicia. Germany is the strongest Central Power by far and thus it makes sense to give it a lot of land, though.

4. What I meant is that Germany will promise to remain neutral in the event of a future Russian war (or wars) in Asia. I obviously don't expect Germany to fight on Russia's side in such a war, but I also certainly (and strongly) don't want Germany fighting on the British and/or Japanese side in such a war.

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Re: Would the Central Powers have accepted a compromise peace with Russia on these terms in 1915 or 1916?

Post by Futurist » 31 Dec 2018 06:59

Also, obviously a surviving Tsarist Russia is not going to be able to beat both Britain and Japan in an Asian war in, say, 1920. 1950 might be a different matter, though--assuming that nukes aren't successfully developed by that point in time in this scenario, that is.

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Re: Would the Central Powers have accepted a compromise peace with Russia on these terms in 1915 or 1916?

Post by Hoplophile » 03 Jan 2019 22:11

I suspect that Germany and Austria-Hungary would have jumped at the opportunity of a separate peace with Russia. In the realm of military strategy, such a peace would have allowed Germany to focus on the Western Front and the Austro-Hungarians on operations on its southern frontiers. (Whether this involved Serbia or Italy or some combination of the two would depend on the exact date.) In the realm of alliance politics, the defection of Russia from the Entente might have convinced Great Britain, France, and Italy to consider a compromise peace as well. In the realm of culture, the Germans preferred to fight the French, whom they considered to be a "natural enemy," and the British, whom they saw as willfully hostile. (The most famous artifact of this attitude is Ernst Lissauer's "Hymn of Hate.")

https://behindtheirlines.blogspot.com/2 ... -hate.html

As far as territorial swaps go, that is a matter for the negotiators. That said, I think that Russia would be more willing to give up Lithuania and its share of Poland than territories along the sea-route to Petrograd. I also think that Germany would have been delighted to give Russia a free hand in Afghanistan, as that would increase the chances of hostility between Russia and Great Britain.

Since we are in the realm of counterfactuals, a compromise peace that resulted in the independence of Finland, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, and Galicia would have gone a long way towards undermining the argument that the Entente powers were fighting for "the rights of small nations."

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