Terry Duncan wrote: ↑03 Feb 2019, 15:30
Futurist wrote: ↑03 Feb 2019, 00:30
Terry Duncan wrote: ↑10 Jan 2019, 16:11
A belated reply, but Russia switched from Bulgaria to Serbia as its prime Balkan concern because Bulgaria refused to follow Russian policy whilst Serbia was willing to do so, at the time just prior to the Balkan Wars where both Austria and Russia were trying to form a Balkan League to suit their own needs. After the usual Balkan disagreements and others vying to influence them one way or other, it settled with Austria wanting a Balkan League led by Bulgaria under Austrian tutelage whilst Russia wanted similar with Serbia in the lead role. It would only be a matter of time until the roles switched again had no war intervened.
What makes you so sure that the roles would have ultimately switched again without World War I?
Mostly because the Balkan politics saw two great powers in what was effectively a bidding race, set against smaller powers seeking to follow their own agenda as much as possible whilst following the wishes of their patrons, when one patron was not willing to follow a certain policy the client would move to seek aid from the other power. You also have the wishes of Russia and Austria-Hungary to constantly thwart each other in the area, coupled with the rivalry of Serbia and Bulgaria seeking to do the same too!
Interesting points. That said, though, it's worth noting that AFAIK Bulgaria had no territorial claims on Austria-Hungary while Serbia did--at least informally. So, an alliance with Austria-Hungary would have made less sense for Serbia than it would have for Bulgaria.