What is the largest that Germany can realistically become?

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Re: What is the largest that Germany can realistically become?

Post by South » 24 Jan 2019 22:00

Good afternoon History Learner,

Welcome to the forum.

Ref the root word of "theoretically";
Ref the root word of "imagination";

If President Wilson had his 14 Points (Point 13 [?]) reviving Poland and this expansionist Germany looks to the Urals, would this not cause some sort of conflict ?

A "Germanic France"; Well, there goes the pastry cart. If France didn't "stay" French, would not some of the French political elements look for the flavor of the Soviet Union ?

Again, welcome to AHF.

~ Bob
eastern Virginia, USA

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Re: What is the largest that Germany can realistically become?

Post by History Learner » 25 Jan 2019 00:53

A Germanic France in terms of Late Antiquity/Early Medieval era, via the Frankish and other Germanic tribes successfully culturally assimilates the existing Latin population in Gaul.

As for Imperial Germany, it would be on the basis of winning the First World War.

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Re: What is the largest that Germany can realistically become?

Post by Futurist » 25 Jan 2019 01:36

History Learner wrote:
25 Jan 2019 00:53
A Germanic France in terms of Late Antiquity/Early Medieval era, via the Frankish and other Germanic tribes successfully culturally assimilates the existing Latin population in Gaul.
Interesting, but I want something with a PoD in the 19th century or later.
As for Imperial Germany, it would be on the basis of winning the First World War.
Yes, but how large could Imperial Germany eventually become in such a scenario?

Also, off-topic, but out of curiosity--are you the very same History Learner from AH.com? :)

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Re: What is the largest that Germany can realistically become?

Post by Futurist » 25 Jan 2019 01:39

Sorry. I didn't see this post of yours until now. Anyway:
History Learner wrote:
24 Jan 2019 20:08
You've excluded the Nazis, so that eliminates probably the easiest answer. Theoretically, it's possible to imagine Imperial Germany being just as expansionist (and less reprehensible about it in the process than their historical successors) as the Third Reich, extending out to the Urals. If you go back far enough, it's possible to see a Germanic France, Pannonia Basin, and possibly other areas; not a unified Germany per se, but close enough in some aspects.
Expanding all of the way to the Urals and outright annexing all of this territory (which is a requirement of mine for this question) would be completely unrealistic for Imperial Germany. Why? Because it would result in Slavs outnumbering Germans and thus in Slavs outvoting Germans.

Theoretically, one could deny Slavs the suffrage, but this simply isn't going to be sustainable in the long(er)-run. Just look at France and Algeria. France refused to treat the Algerian Muslims as equals and thus eventually lost Algeria. The same would happen to Germany and Eastern Europe if Germany outright annexes this territory (which, again, is a condition of mine for the purposes of this question) and refuses to give the Slavs living there German citizenship.

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Re: What is the largest that Germany can realistically become?

Post by Futurist » 25 Jan 2019 01:41

Even today, Germany has slightly over 80 million people--and you'd get around 90 million if you added Austria's population to this calculation. Still, this pales in comparison to Poland, Ukraine, European Russia, and Belarus, which combined have something like 200 million people (40 mil in Poland, 40 mil in Ukraine, 110 mil in European Russia, and 10 mil in Belarus, if one wants to estimate).

200 million Slavs would easily outnumber and easily outvote 90 million Germans.

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RE: What Is The Largest That Germany Can Realistically Become?

Post by Robert Rojas » 25 Jan 2019 02:25

Greetings to both brother South and the community as a whole. Howdy Bob! Well sir, in respect to your posting of Thursday - January 24, 2019 - 1:00pm, like yourself, old yours truly must express more than a few reservations about ANY potential territorial acquisitions by Imperial Germany at the expense of the fledgling Soviet State after the conclusion of the Treaty of Brest-Litovsk on March 03, 1918. After four years of pointless bloodletting in the so-called GREAT WAR, would Imperial Germany have the financial wherewithal and the stomach to be incrementally drawn into the now RUSSIAN CIVIL WAR? Obviously, for any desired parcel of Russian territory to become a distinct part of the greater Hohenzollern realm, all RED and WHITE forces will have to be "persuaded" to permanently vacate the disputed area in question. Of equal importance, would the forces of Imperial Germany be adequately prepared to assume the role of "benevolent colonial overlords" over a people and a culture that is wholly alien to German societal mores and customs? In short, there is a great deal of "unchartered water" between the Berezina River and the foothills of the Ural Mountain Range. In light of all of that, I think I would much rather be a enterprising volksdeutsche steward of the land somewhere in the State of Wisconsin! Well, that's my latest two cents, pfennigs or kopecks worth on this latest exercise into DRANG NACH ÖSTEN - for now anyway. As always, I would like to bid you an especially copacetic day over in your corner of the Old Dominion that is the Commonwealth of Virginia.

Best Regards,
Uncle Bob :idea: :|
"It is well that war is so terrible, or we should grow too fond of it" - Robert E. Lee

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Re: What is the largest that Germany can realistically become?

Post by Futurist » 25 Jan 2019 03:47

Futurist wrote:
25 Jan 2019 01:41
Even today, Germany has slightly over 80 million people--and you'd get around 90 million if you added Austria's population to this calculation. Still, this pales in comparison to Poland, Ukraine, European Russia, and Belarus, which combined have something like 200 million people (40 mil in Poland, 40 mil in Ukraine, 110 mil in European Russia, and 10 mil in Belarus, if one wants to estimate).

200 million Slavs would easily outnumber and easily outvote 90 million Germans.
Also, I'd like to point out that, in real life, Communism and WWII hurt the ex-USSR countries more than they hurt Germany. Thus, in this scenario, the Slav-German population disparity in Europe might be even greater than it is in real life.

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Re: What is the largest that Germany can realistically become?

Post by Futurist » 25 Jan 2019 05:39

South wrote:
24 Jan 2019 22:00
Good afternoon History Learner,

Welcome to the forum.

Ref the root word of "theoretically";
Ref the root word of "imagination";

If President Wilson had his 14 Points (Point 13 [?]) reviving Poland and this expansionist Germany looks to the Urals, would this not cause some sort of conflict ?

A "Germanic France"; Well, there goes the pastry cart. If France didn't "stay" French, would not some of the French political elements look for the flavor of the Soviet Union ?

Again, welcome to AHF.

~ Bob
eastern Virginia, USA
Theoretically speaking, Poland could be secure and even have access to the sea while Germany expands all of the way up to the Urals. After all, East Prussia allows Germany to bypass Poland and get easy access to its Lebensraum. Indeed, I call East Prussia Germany's gateway to its Lebensraum.

As I said in my posts above, though, the demographics make a German expansion up to the Urals completely unrealistic even if Poland isn't annexed; after all, there are way too many Slavs for Germany to give citizenship to all of them without being demographically overwhelmed by these Slavs.

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RE: What Is The Largest That Germany Can "REALISTICALLY" Become?

Post by Robert Rojas » 25 Jan 2019 07:35

Greetings to both brother Futurist and the community as a whole. Howdy Futurist (or Alvin Toffler if you so prefer). Well sir, in deference to your point OR points-of-view as articulated within your postings of Thursday - January 24, 2019 - 4:36pm / Thursday - January 24, 2019 - 4:39pm / Thursday - January 24, 2019 - 4:41pm / Thursday - January 24, 2019 - 6:47pm / Thursday - January 24, 2019 - 8:39pm, old yours truly strongly believes that you have answered your very own question about the demographic limitations of Pan Germanic expansion into the geographic depths of Eastern Europe. Pan Germanic irredentism has run into the solid brick wall of Pan Slavic irredentism. However, with that said, old Uncle Bob will fall back on THE EUROPEAN UNION option if it is your passionate desire for GROSS DEUTSCHLAND to have its Sacher Torte and eat it too! For all practical purposes, the Federal Republic of Germany is figuratively larger and infinitely more powerful than all previous incarnations of the classic German State could have ever possibly dreamt about. Commerce has clearly seen to that. In short, geographic size has very little to do with accrued power. The contemporary State of Israel is a case in point. Finally, in this day and age, PAN GERMANIC THIS and PAN SLAVIC THAT clearly belong on the junk heap of history. Life is far too short and precious for such unadulterated bullshit. Well, that's my latest two cents, pfennigs or kopecks worth on this sojourn down The Yellow Road - for now anyway. As always, I would like to bid you an especially copacetic day down in your corner of Orange County that is the Magic Kingdom of Disneyland.


Best Regards,
Uncle Bob :idea: :|
"It is well that war is so terrible, or we should grow too fond of it" - Robert E. Lee

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Re: What is the largest that Germany can realistically become?

Post by History Learner » 25 Jan 2019 17:07

Futurist wrote:
25 Jan 2019 01:39
Expanding all of the way to the Urals and outright annexing all of this territory (which is a requirement of mine for this question) would be completely unrealistic for Imperial Germany. Why? Because it would result in Slavs outnumbering Germans and thus in Slavs outvoting Germans.

Theoretically, one could deny Slavs the suffrage, but this simply isn't going to be sustainable in the long(er)-run. Just look at France and Algeria. France refused to treat the Algerian Muslims as equals and thus eventually lost Algeria. The same would happen to Germany and Eastern Europe if Germany outright annexes this territory (which, again, is a condition of mine for the purposes of this question) and refuses to give the Slavs living there German citizenship.
Imperial Germany wasn't a direct democracy, so the suffrage isn't too big an issue, especially given most of the Slavs annexed will be illiterate rural peasants. Do land reform to achieve support from them (Just like the Reds during the RCW), and then start an assimilationist campaign; since they are, again, largely illiterate, it should be fairly easy to absorb them in a few generations.

And yes, this is the same HL from AH.com.

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Re: What is the largest that Germany can realistically become?

Post by Futurist » 25 Jan 2019 18:09

History Learner wrote:
25 Jan 2019 17:07
Futurist wrote:
25 Jan 2019 01:39
Expanding all of the way to the Urals and outright annexing all of this territory (which is a requirement of mine for this question) would be completely unrealistic for Imperial Germany. Why? Because it would result in Slavs outnumbering Germans and thus in Slavs outvoting Germans.

Theoretically, one could deny Slavs the suffrage, but this simply isn't going to be sustainable in the long(er)-run. Just look at France and Algeria. France refused to treat the Algerian Muslims as equals and thus eventually lost Algeria. The same would happen to Germany and Eastern Europe if Germany outright annexes this territory (which, again, is a condition of mine for the purposes of this question) and refuses to give the Slavs living there German citizenship.
Imperial Germany wasn't a direct democracy, so the suffrage isn't too big an issue, especially given most of the Slavs annexed will be illiterate rural peasants. Do land reform to achieve support from them (Just like the Reds during the RCW), and then start an assimilationist campaign; since they are, again, largely illiterate, it should be fairly easy to absorb them in a few generations.

And yes, this is the same HL from AH.com.
The suffrage issue should become bigger over time, though. After all, I can't imagine the gerrymandered Prussian voting system surviving indefinitely. I'll use the U.S. as an example--while rural areas were overrepresented in state legislatures before the 1960s, the public refused to tolerate this problem forever--which resulted in pressure on the U.S. Supreme Court to implement the "one person, one vote" rule and require equipopulous districts everywhere other than the U.S. Senate. Similarly, in Britain, the rotten boroughs were abolished in 1832 and the suffrage was gradually expanded in the 19th and early 20th centuries to include more and more people. I suspect that something similar would have happened in Imperial Germany over time even without the World Wars.

Also, by the start of WWI, literacy in the Russian Empire was likely approaching 70% among the younger generation. Almost 70% of conscripts to the Russian Army/military were literate in 1913:

https://twitter.com/akarlin88/status/925725637104558085

Thus, Germany's potential to Germanize large numbers of Slavs by introducing them to literacy via the German language appears to have been rather limited by the time of World War I.

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Re: What is the largest that Germany can realistically become?

Post by Futurist » 25 Jan 2019 18:33

Also, two additional points:

1. A lot (perhaps most) of the Slavs in Eastern Europe were Eastern Orthodox. This would have been another obstacle to successfully Germanizing them--and an aggressive secularization campaign might alienate a lot of these Slavs.

2. Prussia/Germany failed to Germanize the Poles in Posen and the Polish Corridor in spite of the fact that it ruled over them for over a century and was possibly the one who introduced mass schooling into these regions (as the map linked to below shows, primary school enrollment in Posen and the Polish Corridor was relatively low in 1816):

https://www.google.com/search?q=literac ... 3NBk0DZf_M:

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Re: What is the largest that Germany can realistically become?

Post by South » 25 Jan 2019 18:54

Good afternoon Uncle Bob,

Concur; I have a hunch we will soon be assigned to teach summer school classes to a few.

If King Henry IV thought Paris was worth a Mass, surely others of this early medieval era thought so too. Time to start upgrading the castles....just in case.

Imperial Germany winning the Great War Part the First, reminds me of Archimedes announcing that he can move the world - if - given a fulcrum. Without victories and fulcrums, the events do not occur.

I always thought Immanuel Kant was a Slavic German. Wasn't Fred Nietzsche's "Superman" of the Slavic German persuasion ?

The new Germany of 1871 onward, besides not having the financial assets, also lacked the overall nation-state support systems. It was just too new a nation. One example of a nation-state support system is the program to protect and maintain any territorial seas and trade routes. From Trafalgar to Jutland Sound era, these mentioned water areas were, in substance, controlled by the RN.

A related question generated by History Learner and Futurist:

An imperial German attack on the new Workers' Paradise, the USSR, means a confrontation with a Soviet land mass - finalized by 1922 - from Murmansk to Vladivostok. Would the Pacific Powers such as the UK, US and Japan sit idly by reading Lonely Planet guidebooks on the pleasantries of Paris whether attending a Mass or not ? I have a hunch these Pacific Powers weren't too keen on a powerhouse Germany disturbing the Pacific arrangements.

Meanwhile, back at the European land approaches to Russia........didn't Tolstoy write a book on this while in a Russian 5 star Michelin restaurant ?


~ Bob
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Re: What is the largest that Germany can realistically become?

Post by South » 25 Jan 2019 19:35

Good afternoon Futurist,

Can you provide some premier-apex type examples of "Communism and WWII hurt the ex-USSR countries more than...Germany"?

I recall the eastern part of Germany was not governed from Bonn and thus no benefit to West Germany. This eastern part of Germany used a Communist form of government.

I'm omitting mentioning the Berlin sectors.

One ex-USSR SSR was Azerbaijan with their Baku-based oil industry. The place was definitely in the WWII fighting but the petrol and technical industrial knowledge did not transfer to Bonn.

......

Is citizenship a requirement in your scenario's success ? Is voting a requirement ? I ask this because, I believe, the US Indians, the native Americans, did not get the official right to vote until 1948. (Aforesaid from a fading memory). The US Voting Rights Act of 1965 indicates that there were problems prior to the law's enactment. My point is that after WWII, the US fared AOK. I can guess that residents of Kazakhstan, if given the right to vote, would produce voting records like here in the US - not that great of participation.

......

Ref: "Theoretically ... Poland could secure ...";

So far, that's not the experience record for this shatterbelt area. Recall the term "Buffer State". Thus, less theory is involved than the historical record.

......
......

Meanwhile, we of the land of Jefferson whose labor force didn't participate in elections, have another Arctic air blast arriving in a few hours. I am going to be nice and say I have a form-fitting sheet like I once saw a Hare Krishna penitent wear while banging on a bongo drum. Any room on an extra cot or carport in southern California ? I'm going to be freezing in the morning !


~ Bob
eastern Virginia, USA

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Re: What is the largest that Germany can realistically become?

Post by wm » 25 Jan 2019 20:17

South wrote:
25 Jan 2019 19:35
Can you provide some premier-apex type examples of "Communism and WWII hurt the ex-USSR countries more than...Germany"?
It's sufficient to compare the GDP per capita of Poland (in red) and Spain, to see that:
poland-spain.jpg
It should be mentioned after the war Spain itself suffered 15 years of depressed economic growth thanks to its authoritarian government, but later they saw the light and introduced free enterprise.
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