If there's no Yugoslav coup in early 1941, does Operation Barbarossa succeed?

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Futurist
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If there's no Yugoslav coup in early 1941, does Operation Barbarossa succeed?

Post by Futurist » 02 Feb 2019 02:17

If there's no Yugoslav coup in early 1941 and thus no Axis invasion of Yugoslavia, does Operation Barbarossa succeed?

I've read on another thread here that the delay in Operation Barbarossa in 1941 was due to both the events in Yugoslavia and the bad weather. However, I wonder if the bad weather in itself would have been enough to delay Operation Barbarossa in this scenario.

Any thoughts on this?

Sid Guttridge
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Re: If there's no Yugoslav coup in early 1941, does Operation Barbarossa succeed?

Post by Sid Guttridge » 02 Feb 2019 09:03

Hi futurist.

It firstly depends on whether the Balkan Campaign put back the date of Barbarossa at all.

Do we know?

Sid.

jesk
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Re: If there's no Yugoslav coup in early 1941, does Operation Barbarossa succeed?

Post by jesk » 02 Feb 2019 09:26

Futurist wrote:
02 Feb 2019 02:17
If there's no Yugoslav coup in early 1941 and thus no Axis invasion of Yugoslavia, does Operation Barbarossa succeed?

I've read on another thread here that the delay in Operation Barbarossa in 1941 was due to both the events in Yugoslavia and the bad weather. However, I wonder if the bad weather in itself would have been enough to delay Operation Barbarossa in this scenario.

Any thoughts on this?
"Barbarossa" is considered for a short period of time. In 1942 nothing helped if the Germans attacked Moscow and Leningrad. But there was nothing.

maltesefalcon
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Re: If there's no Yugoslav coup in early 1941, does Operation Barbarossa succeed?

Post by maltesefalcon » 02 Feb 2019 14:49

The actual battles in Yugoslavia only lasted 11 days in April. So the timeline was not drastically effected in absolute terms by this situation. One might also add that if the Barbarossa plan was on such a tight balance that a minor incursion upset the whole apple cart, the Germans were never in a position to win anyway. Any cohesive plan for a battle as large as Barbarossa must have contingencies for unforeseen situations, which were bound to occur in Russia as well.

That being said, the Wehrmacht was also fighting developing campaigns in Albania, Greece, Crete and North Africa in the same time period. These distractions would involve a certain siphoning off of resources and some permanent losses of men and materiel.

These would need to be made good in the long run. Whether that led to a delay from the original May timeline or it was solely due to weather is up for debate.

MarkN
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Re: If there's no Yugoslav coup in early 1941, does Operation Barbarossa succeed?

Post by MarkN » 02 Feb 2019 15:59

Futurist wrote:
02 Feb 2019 02:17
If there's no Yugoslav coup in early 1941 and thus no Axis invasion of Yugoslavia, does Operation Barbarossa succeed?

I've read on another thread here that the delay in Operation Barbarossa in 1941 was due to both the events in Yugoslavia and the bad weather. However, I wonder if the bad weather in itself would have been enough to delay Operation Barbarossa in this scenario.

Any thoughts on this?
Any thoughts on this?

Yes. Try understanding how far away Op BARBAROSSA was from "success" before asking such daft questions.

Futurist
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Re: If there's no Yugoslav coup in early 1941, does Operation Barbarossa succeed?

Post by Futurist » 02 Feb 2019 19:26

MarkN wrote:
02 Feb 2019 15:59
Futurist wrote:
02 Feb 2019 02:17
If there's no Yugoslav coup in early 1941 and thus no Axis invasion of Yugoslavia, does Operation Barbarossa succeed?

I've read on another thread here that the delay in Operation Barbarossa in 1941 was due to both the events in Yugoslavia and the bad weather. However, I wonder if the bad weather in itself would have been enough to delay Operation Barbarossa in this scenario.

Any thoughts on this?
Any thoughts on this?

Yes. Try understanding how far away Op BARBAROSSA was from "success" before asking such daft questions.
The Germans almost got to Moscow by the end of Operation Barbarossa, though.

MarkN
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Re: If there's no Yugoslav coup in early 1941, does Operation Barbarossa succeed?

Post by MarkN » 02 Feb 2019 21:47

Futurist wrote:
02 Feb 2019 19:26
The Germans almost got to Moscow by the end of Operation Barbarossa, though.
What?

They had reached the end of their offensive capability before even attempting to take Moscow. They were burned out as an effective force. Moscow was barely the half way point of Op BARBAROSSA.

Lack of understanding = daft questions.

Futurist
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Re: If there's no Yugoslav coup in early 1941, does Operation Barbarossa succeed?

Post by Futurist » 02 Feb 2019 23:28

MarkN wrote:
02 Feb 2019 21:47
Futurist wrote:
02 Feb 2019 19:26
The Germans almost got to Moscow by the end of Operation Barbarossa, though.
What?

They had reached the end of their offensive capability before even attempting to take Moscow. They were burned out as an effective force. Moscow was barely the half way point of Op BARBAROSSA.

Lack of understanding = daft questions.
Yes, I know that the A-A line was the ultimate goal of Operation Barbarossa:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/A-A_line

In that regard, this operation was certainly a failure. Also, based on your comment here, I'm assuming that the Germans would have been incapable of even capturing Moscow regardless of when Operation Barbarossa would have begun, correct? If so, the logical conclusion is that, coup or no coup in Yugoslavia in 1941, Operation Barbarossa would have still failed--eventually resulting in the Axis Powers' ultimate defeat in World War II.

MarkN
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Re: If there's no Yugoslav coup in early 1941, does Operation Barbarossa succeed?

Post by MarkN » 03 Feb 2019 13:24

Futurist wrote:
02 Feb 2019 23:28
MarkN wrote:
02 Feb 2019 21:47
Futurist wrote:
02 Feb 2019 19:26
The Germans almost got to Moscow by the end of Operation Barbarossa, though.
What?

They had reached the end of their offensive capability before even attempting to take Moscow. They were burned out as an effective force. Moscow was barely the half way point of Op BARBAROSSA.

Lack of understanding = daft questions.
Yes, I know that the A-A line was the ultimate goal of Operation Barbarossa:
If so, why do you ask such a daft question and make such historically false statements as: "The Germans almost got to Moscow by the end of Operation Barbarossa, though."?
Futurist wrote:
02 Feb 2019 23:28
In that regard, this operation was certainly a failure.
In that regard.... :roll:

In which regard(s) do you consider Op BARBAROSSA was certainly a success?
Futurist wrote:
02 Feb 2019 23:28
Also, based on your comment here, I'm assuming that the Germans would have been incapable of even capturing Moscow regardless of when Operation Barbarossa would have begun, correct? If so, the logical conclusion is that, coup or no coup in Yugoslavia in 1941, Operation Barbarossa would have still failed--eventually resulting in the Axis Powers' ultimate defeat in World War II.
Assume whatever you you like. But making assumptions based upon superficial answers to daft questions is NEVER going to help you understand history.

maltesefalcon
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Re: If there's no Yugoslav coup in early 1941, does Operation Barbarossa succeed?

Post by maltesefalcon » 03 Feb 2019 17:01

Futurist wrote:
02 Feb 2019 23:28
MarkN wrote:
02 Feb 2019 21:47
Futurist wrote:
02 Feb 2019 19:26
The Germans almost got to Moscow by the end of Operation Barbarossa, though.
What?

They had reached the end of their offensive capability before even attempting to take Moscow. They were burned out as an effective force. Moscow was barely the half way point of Op BARBAROSSA.

Lack of understanding = daft questions.
Yes, I know that the A-A line was the ultimate goal of Operation Barbarossa:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/A-A_line

In that regard, this operation was certainly a failure. Also, based on your comment here, I'm assuming that the Germans would have been incapable of even capturing Moscow regardless of when Operation Barbarossa would have begun, correct? If so, the logical conclusion is that, coup or no coup in Yugoslavia in 1941, Operation Barbarossa would have still failed--eventually resulting in the Axis Powers' ultimate defeat in World War II.
In a broader sense the ultimate military goal was not geographic at all. It was to neuter the Soviet state so overwhelmingly that either they would surrender or at least not pose a credible threat for the foreseeable future.

The A-A line was posed as a basis for the occupied zone of European Russia. If resistance had collapsed around the time of the Battle of Smolensk for instance, the Germans would have still moved Eastward to occupy this zone. (For security reasons and to allow Luftwaffe bases within striking range of the Transural area.)

MarkN
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Re: If there's no Yugoslav coup in early 1941, does Operation Barbarossa succeed?

Post by MarkN » 03 Feb 2019 17:45

maltesefalcon wrote:
03 Feb 2019 17:01
In a broader sense the ultimate military goal was not geographic at all. It was to neuter the Soviet state so overwhelmingly that either they would surrender or at least not pose a credible threat for the foreseeable future.
Hmmmmm!

That was not the plan, that was the wishful thinking.

The end point of Op BARBAROSSA, as presented in policy and (grand) military objectives, envisioned a Russian (Soviet) state existing the otherside of the Urals. A state that was continuing the struggle/war and that required significant land forces to keep it out and air forces to keep it down.
maltesefalcon wrote:
03 Feb 2019 17:01
The A-A line was posed as a basis for the occupied zone of European Russia. If resistance had collapsed around the time of the Battle of Smolensk for instance, the Germans would have still moved Eastward to occupy this zone. (For security reasons and to allow Luftwaffe bases within striking range of the Transural area.)
Indeed. The military goal was geographical. Military opposition was an impediment to achieving that goal. The location of the boundary was not based upon security reasons.

Op BARBAROSSA was a plain and simple land-grab (for economic reasons) based around sociopathic ideas of reengineering the social and ethnic mix of Eastern Europe.

Baldir
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Re: If there's no Yugoslav coup in early 1941, does Operation Barbarossa succeed?

Post by Baldir » 05 Feb 2019 15:42

If there's no Yugoslav coup in early 1941 and thus no Axis invasion of Yugoslavia, does Operation Barbarossa succeed?

No. They still had to invade Greece. And after all, reaching Moscow and capturing it, are two completely different things. Fighting in Moscow or just encircled it, Germans will be even more vulnerable, when the soviet start their winter offensive. It may even end worse.

History Learner
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Re: If there's no Yugoslav coup in early 1941, does Operation Barbarossa succeed?

Post by History Learner » 18 Feb 2019 10:41

Futurist wrote:
02 Feb 2019 02:17
If there's no Yugoslav coup in early 1941 and thus no Axis invasion of Yugoslavia, does Operation Barbarossa succeed?

I've read on another thread here that the delay in Operation Barbarossa in 1941 was due to both the events in Yugoslavia and the bad weather. However, I wonder if the bad weather in itself would have been enough to delay Operation Barbarossa in this scenario.

Any thoughts on this?
Yes.

Time and logistical constrained emplaced by the Balkan Campaigns represented a very serious drain on the German ability to initiate the campaign overall. The flood waters from the Spring had receded by the 10th of June and the lack of the aforementioned material expenditures probably means the 10th represents the earliest possible start point. I know an additional 10 days doesn't sound like a lot, but in the timetable of Barbarossa, specifically in the critical August-October time period, it's rather critical. Consider that if the Germans had been a day faster at Borodino in October, the Soviet 32nd Rifle Division would not have been able to entrench and thus would've been very quickly destroyed, giving the Germans an all weather road straight to Moscow with no real Soviet opposition in the way. Far more important in my judgement, and probably decisive for the campaign, is that 11th Army would've not been detached for occupation duties. This left Army Group South rather short on forces, ultimately necessitating the diversion of Army Group Center to finish off Kiev in August instead of making the plunge for Moscow.

Futurist
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Re: If there's no Yugoslav coup in early 1941, does Operation Barbarossa succeed?

Post by Futurist » 17 Jun 2021 19:07

History Learner wrote:
18 Feb 2019 10:41
Futurist wrote:
02 Feb 2019 02:17
If there's no Yugoslav coup in early 1941 and thus no Axis invasion of Yugoslavia, does Operation Barbarossa succeed?

I've read on another thread here that the delay in Operation Barbarossa in 1941 was due to both the events in Yugoslavia and the bad weather. However, I wonder if the bad weather in itself would have been enough to delay Operation Barbarossa in this scenario.

Any thoughts on this?
Yes.

Time and logistical constrained emplaced by the Balkan Campaigns represented a very serious drain on the German ability to initiate the campaign overall. The flood waters from the Spring had receded by the 10th of June and the lack of the aforementioned material expenditures probably means the 10th represents the earliest possible start point. I know an additional 10 days doesn't sound like a lot, but in the timetable of Barbarossa, specifically in the critical August-October time period, it's rather critical. Consider that if the Germans had been a day faster at Borodino in October, the Soviet 32nd Rifle Division would not have been able to entrench and thus would've been very quickly destroyed, giving the Germans an all weather road straight to Moscow with no real Soviet opposition in the way. Far more important in my judgement, and probably decisive for the campaign, is that 11th Army would've not been detached for occupation duties. This left Army Group South rather short on forces, ultimately necessitating the diversion of Army Group Center to finish off Kiev in August instead of making the plunge for Moscow.
I'm very glad to know that the sacrifices that Yugoslavia endured as a result of its 1941 coup were not in vain.

historygeek2021
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Re: If there's no Yugoslav coup in early 1941, does Operation Barbarossa succeed?

Post by historygeek2021 » 18 Jun 2021 18:52

No. If anything the Yugoslav coup helped the German invasion of the Soviet Union because:

(1) It gave Germany a path around the Metaxas Line, which they were unable to breach in the OTL, and
(2) It eliminated a pro-Allied and pro-Soviet country that could have turned against Germany at any time.

Without the Yugoslav coup, Germany would have been forced to invade Greece solely from Bulgaria, where they were blocked by the Metaxas Line. While Germany would likely have broken through, it would have taken longer than in the OTL, allowing the Greeks and British to fall back from their forward positions in Albania and form another defensive line further south, dragging out the Greek campaign for potentially weeks longer than in the OTL, and potentially postponing the assault on Crete indefinitely, giving the British a bomber base within range of the Ploesti oil fields.

In any event, Germany was defeated by the overwhelming material superiority of the Soviet Union backed by the United States and Britain. An extra week or month would not have changed the outcome. The Soviet Union raised more armies in 1941 than Germany could ever hope to defeat. Look at this compilation of Soviet armies raised over the course of 1941 from David Glantz's Barbarossa:
Red Armies 1941.png
Germany had no idea the Soviets would be able to field this many armies in 1941. The OstHeer was hopelessly outmatched.
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