Do the Great Powers militarily intervene in China to restore order in the 1910s without WWI?

[Futurist]

Had World War I not broken out in the 1910s and China would have still descended into anarchy under Yuan Shikai, would the Great Powers have militarily intervened in China in order to restore order there and impose some kind of central government upon the Chinese?

[jerryasher]

I doubt it. Yuan Shikai was a very capable leader and I would quibble over anarchy, restoring order and imposing central government. I find it ironic that a Europe descending into a Great Civil War, that toppled Kings In Russia and Germany, witnessed the break up of the Russian, Austro-Hungarian Empires, witnessed a mass mutiny in the French Army, etc. etc perceived the Chinese to be disorderly.

[Futurist]

I doubt it. Yuan Shikai was a very capable leader and I would quibble over anarchy, restoring order and imposing central government. I find it ironic that a Europe descending into a Great Civil War, that toppled Kings In Russia and Germany, witnessed the break up of the Russian, Austro-Hungarian Empires, witnessed a mass mutiny in the French Army, etc. etc perceived the Chinese to be disorderly.

Europe won't be descending into a Great War in the 1910s in this scenario.

As for Yuan Shikai, his attempt to proclaim himself Emperor of China caused various Chinese provinces to secede and triggered a period of anarchy in China which lasted for over a decade (and even then, it was followed by a couple of decades of civil war as well as almost a decade of war with Japan).

[jerryasher]

Thank you futurist. Please excuse if I appear snarky. I really don't know how to respond to scenario. The Epoch of the "Age of Empires," of European colonialism of the 19th Century--did come to an end with the decision to go to war with each other. Yuan Shikai was caught up in the debris of their world shattering. If he had become a Constitutional Monarch--it was not that different than that of Japan, Russia, Austro-Hungarian, or Great Britain. "Republics," were the minority. Moreover a facet of that European war is that Japan perceived it as a "heaven sent opportunity," and Yuan himself as the greatest impediment to their realizing their goals. In that respect, the last thing in the world the Japanese wanted was create a central government in China controlled by anyone but themselves. Yuan was the deterrent and as long as he lived, sometimes politically stronger than other times, he was the bulwark.

[stulev]

I think if WWI did not take place that the major powers would at least intervened to protect their citizens in China, and doing that would drag them into the civil war to some extent - what side they took might be in question.

[north2014]

Actually, the central government did devolve into near impotence with the death of Yuan Shikai and lead to the era of the warlords. The regional military leaders, the warlords, did maintain a certain social order despite their wars. The imperialist powers did not intervene militarily to prop up or impose a central government. I don't think the imperialist powers would have been any different if they were not consumed in their world war.