How long would it take after a failed German invasion of France in 1940 for Hitler to get ousted or killed?

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Re: How long would it take after a failed German invasion of France in 1940 for Hitler to get ousted or killed?

Post by Futurist » 16 Apr 2019 03:19

Carl Schwamberger wrote:
15 Apr 2019 01:16
Probably depends on how bad conditions are in Germany, and what folk think conditions will deteriorate to in the coming months or year.

Theres also a question of what happens as assorted political groups in Germany reemerge, or if they do. The 'discipline' imposed by the nazi party & Gestapo tended to mask that underneath the 'Germans' were not a solid mass of like thinking Aryans. My guess is the social/political groups of 1919-1934 are still there with similar agendas.

Theres a lot of ways the war can end & a large part of it depends on the actual situation inside Germany.
Honestly, I think that if the new German leadership will be committed to carrying on the war in order to acquire better peace terms, then it will try to silence all or almost all dissent--albeit perhaps less brutally than Hitler and the Nazis did. That said, though, if the war continues and the German leadership concludes that Germany genuinely has no chance of bleeding Britain and France to exhaustion or actually getting them to moderate their peace terms, then they could demand an armistice, bring back democracy to Germany, and then have the new democratically elected German government sign humiliating peace terms. In other words, a repeat of November 1918--except this time, Britain and France might demand unconditional surrender and war crimes trials.

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Re: How long would it take after a failed German invasion of France in 1940 for Hitler to get ousted or killed?

Post by Carl Schwamberger » 16 Apr 2019 15:51

This leads to the discussion of if Germany would be dissolved into several seperate states, & what would they be.

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Re: How long would it take after a failed German invasion of France in 1940 for Hitler to get ousted or killed?

Post by Futurist » 24 Apr 2019 03:51

Carl Schwamberger wrote:
16 Apr 2019 15:51
This leads to the discussion of if Germany would be dissolved into several seperate states, & what would they be.
Well, that might depend--would Britain and France actually be willing to enforce this new post-war order? Or are they going to soften up 15 years down the line like they did after Versailles and let Germany reunify?

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Re: How long would it take after a failed German invasion of France in 1940 for Hitler to get ousted or killed?

Post by Futurist » 24 Apr 2019 04:31

BTW, I wonder what the male to female ratio in the age cohort of ages 25 to 50 would have been in France in 1950 had France not quickly fallen in 1940 but instead had to fight a long war. In real life, France's age cohort in regards to this was evenly balanced between males and females--unlike that of Germany, Austria, the European republics of the Soviet Union, and some other countries:

Image

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Re: How long would it take after a failed German invasion of France in 1940 for Hitler to get ousted or killed?

Post by Carl Schwamberger » 25 Apr 2019 17:39

A ratio similar to Britain or Italy? French policy was to preserve men-expend ammunition.

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Re: How long would it take after a failed German invasion of France in 1940 for Hitler to get ousted or killed?

Post by Futurist » 25 Apr 2019 20:14

Carl Schwamberger wrote:
25 Apr 2019 17:39
A ratio similar to Britain or Italy? French policy was to preserve men-expend ammunition.
Britain got lucky that it only had to fight a part of the German army, though. In this scenario, Britain and France are going to have to fight almost the entire German army--and without US troops to take some of the burden off of their own shoulders.

BTW, did Germany have a different policy in regards to preserving men in WWII? Germany's male-female ratio for its cohorts aged 25 to 49 is much lower than Britain's and Italy's--in fact, being slightly closer to Russia's ratio than to Britain's and Italy's ratio. (The distance from 77 to 62 is 15 whereas the distance from 77 to 94 and 97 is 17 and 20, respectively.)

Also, did France likewise aim to conserve men in WWI? Or was it much more cavalier about this in WWI?

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Re: How long would it take after a failed German invasion of France in 1940 for Hitler to get ousted or killed?

Post by Carl Schwamberger » 26 Apr 2019 15:24

Futurist wrote:
25 Apr 2019 20:14
...

Also, did France likewise aim to conserve men in WWI? Or was it much more cavalier about this in WWI?
Depended on the general. There was a trend from start to finish for preservation, but it was uneven. The 1917 Mutinies were a abrupt push for change of policy & there were promises made. The techniques for preservation of lives had to be developed and that was still incomplete in 1918, tho some specific armies were well developed in this direction. Looking at the methods of the French 4th Army in 1918 one can see a lot of the French doctrine of 1939. Ot that of many other armies for that matter.

Not every army commander in 1914 was slavishly committed to the benefit of unthinking Elan, and the 'Offense d Outrance'. While there efforts to avoid losses were crude or ineffective a couple of them were trying. Others saw total victory in just a few more days of ultra aggressive attacks.

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