Does the Italian monarchy survive up to the present-day if Italy never enters WWII?

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Futurist
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Does the Italian monarchy survive up to the present-day if Italy never enters WWII?

Post by Futurist » 26 Apr 2019 02:49

If Italy never enters WWII (for instance, as a result of France not falling in 1940), does Italy's monarchy survive up to the present-day? Or does it get overthrown once democracy is restored in Italy (which will probably be sometime in the late 20th century if the examples of Spain and Portugal are anything to go by)?

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Re: Does the Italian monarchy survive up to the present-day if Italy never enters WWII?

Post by maltesefalcon » 27 Apr 2019 14:53

Blaming the collapse of the Italian monarchy solely on Italy's entry and loss in WW2 is a vast oversimplification of the situation. After all both Belgium and The Netherlands were defeated, but their monarchies survived.

Italy felt badly bargained with in the peace treaty following the Great War. That was the beginning of a push away from the former Allied nations. The Italian economy suffered quite badly as well during the Great Depression. The general discontent left an opening for Fascists to take over. Because the King had openly supported the early Fascist regime he was in lock step with them, success or failure.

Finally Italy (like Germany) was a fairly young country. The unification of all the states was not universally accepted by the population. This "marriage of inconvenience" created a dynasty which many resented as having no authority in the absorbed states.

The collapse of the Italian war effort was only the final act of a sad drama.

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Re: Does the Italian monarchy survive up to the present-day if Italy never enters WWII?

Post by Futurist » 27 Apr 2019 20:26

So, you're suggesting that the Italian monarchy would have still eventually been overthrown even if Italy would have never entered WWII (due to no Fall of France, in this scenario) due to the fact that, as a result of the Italian King's actions, Italy's monarchy became closely bound to Italian Fascism and thus was bound to share Fascism's ultimate fate?

Also, what's interesting is that the historical subjects of the Savoyards abandoned them in the 1946 Italian referendum. The Savoyards are historically from northern Italy, but northern Italy voted for a republic while southern Italy was the one that voted for a continuation of the monarchy. Was this due to the fact that southern Italy was spared Nazi occupation, or was this because southern Italy was more traditional and conservative and thus was more receptive to the idea of a monarchy?

maltesefalcon
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Re: Does the Italian monarchy survive up to the present-day if Italy never enters WWII?

Post by maltesefalcon » 28 Apr 2019 03:32

Possibly yes. One scenerio could have gradually more prosperous Italy emerge by 1945. This would take the heat off Victor Emmanuel and Mussolini as well.
Both could not live forever. It is entirely possible the King's death in 1947 would lead to the abolition of the monarchy. Once Mussolini dies as well, perhaps a move toward a more Republican style government.
That would kind of hinge on whether the Nazis were still around or not.
Lots of twists and turns, so many possible outcomes.

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Re: Does the Italian monarchy survive up to the present-day if Italy never enters WWII?

Post by Futurist » 28 Apr 2019 07:08

If VE III dies, then he'd be succeeded by his son Umberto II--who would have an opportunity to try to redeem the Italian monarchy. Umberto failed to do this in real life, but it's worth noting that he had an extremely short reign in real life.

As for the Nazis, if France doesn't fall in 1940, then their goose is going to quickly get cooked. Either they get overthrown in an internal coup, or Britain and France march all of the way up to Berlin and do the job themselves.

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