If the July 20th Plot succeeds, which Eastern European countries avoid Communist rule afterwards?

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Futurist
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If the July 20th Plot succeeds, which Eastern European countries avoid Communist rule afterwards?

Post by Futurist » 26 Apr 2019 20:54

If the July 20th Plot succeeds, which Eastern European countries that became Communist in real life are likely to avoid this fate in this scenario?

In real life, the Soviet Union was able to spread Communism to the Baltic states (which it outright annexed) as well as to East Germany, Poland, Czechoslovakia, Hungary, Romania, and Bulgaria. Yugoslavia and Albania also became Communist but AFAIK this didn't have that much to do with the Soviet Union; rather, AFAIK the Yugoslav and Albanian Communists were able to seize power largely on their own.

Image

Anyway, what are your thoughts on this?

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Re: If the July 20th Plot succeeds, which Eastern European countries avoid Communist rule afterwards?

Post by Futurist » 26 Apr 2019 21:01

Here's a map of the European front lines in WWII in mid-1944 and late 1944:

Image

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T. A. Gardner
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Re: If the July 20th Plot succeeds, which Eastern European countries avoid Communist rule afterwards?

Post by T. A. Gardner » 26 Apr 2019 21:38

This depends on what happens afterwards. The Western Allies won't accept a separate peace, so the Germans couldn't negotiate a half-surrender while still fighting in the East.
With a full on surrender and the war ending, it's likely the Western Allies will move forward to their pre-arranged occupation line and let the Soviets do the same.
But, that in itself brings up an interesting scenario. I'd think the Wehrmacht in the West would simply lay down their arms and surrender wholesale as the Western Allies moved to occupy Germany. In the East, I suspect it might be very different. While some units might surrender, I doubt all, even most, would. Instead, I see them making a fighting retreat west in an attempt to surrender to the Western Allies. I also think the Soviets would be unable in such a situation to fully exploit the surrender and move forward with sufficient troops to successfully occupy much of their zone. It's simply too great a distance for them to support logistically and organizationally particularly if they face ongoing opposition.
I'd think Yugoslavia would still tell the Soviets "Stay the hell out" so that doesn't change.
Hungary might make a separate peace in such an event. If they do, and they want an occupation only by Western Allied forces, that could get interesting. Czechoslovakia might do the same thing. If they are demanding for immediate surrender no Soviet occupation...

I think overall, there might well be a continuation of the war in the East even as the Germans surrender in the West. If that's the case, and the Soviets are unable to occupy their zone by the time the Allies occupy theirs, the Allies might be forced to go further east simply to end the war.

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Re: If the July 20th Plot succeeds, which Eastern European countries avoid Communist rule afterwards?

Post by Gorque » 27 Apr 2019 04:09

None. The zones of occupation had already been drawn up and the Western Allies had already drunk deeply from Stalin's Kool-Aid.

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Re: If the July 20th Plot succeeds, which Eastern European countries avoid Communist rule afterwards?

Post by T. A. Gardner » 27 Apr 2019 05:35

Gorque wrote:
27 Apr 2019 04:09
None. The zones of occupation had already been drawn up and the Western Allies had already drunk deeply from Stalin's Kool-Aid.
Hungary and Slovika were independent countries that were aligned and allied with Germany. If they surrender to the Western Allies, they could try for seperate peace treaties. Historically, they were overrun by the Soviets and occupied.
Here, if they want a seperate peace and to keep the Soviets out, what does the West do? This would have nothing to do with the agreed occupation of Germany...

Yugoslavia would definitely tell the Soviets to stay the hell out. They pretty much did historically. Tito didn't want a Soviet occupation but did align sort of with the Russian Communist government.

What if Latvia, LIthuania and Estonia do the same? They're sort of independent nations.

What about the Polish government in exile? What if they refuse to allow a Soviet occupation in this scenario?

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Re: If the July 20th Plot succeeds, which Eastern European countries avoid Communist rule afterwards?

Post by Futurist » 27 Apr 2019 06:19

T. A. Gardner wrote:
26 Apr 2019 21:38
This depends on what happens afterwards. The Western Allies won't accept a separate peace, so the Germans couldn't negotiate a half-surrender while still fighting in the East.
With a full on surrender and the war ending, it's likely the Western Allies will move forward to their pre-arranged occupation line and let the Soviets do the same.
But, that in itself brings up an interesting scenario. I'd think the Wehrmacht in the West would simply lay down their arms and surrender wholesale as the Western Allies moved to occupy Germany. In the East, I suspect it might be very different. While some units might surrender, I doubt all, even most, would. Instead, I see them making a fighting retreat west in an attempt to surrender to the Western Allies. I also think the Soviets would be unable in such a situation to fully exploit the surrender and move forward with sufficient troops to successfully occupy much of their zone. It's simply too great a distance for them to support logistically and organizationally particularly if they face ongoing opposition.
I'd think Yugoslavia would still tell the Soviets "Stay the hell out" so that doesn't change.
Hungary might make a separate peace in such an event. If they do, and they want an occupation only by Western Allied forces, that could get interesting. Czechoslovakia might do the same thing. If they are demanding for immediate surrender no Soviet occupation...
Interesting analysis.
I think overall, there might well be a continuation of the war in the East even as the Germans surrender in the West. If that's the case, and the Soviets are unable to occupy their zone by the time the Allies occupy theirs, the Allies might be forced to go further east simply to end the war.
If so, the crucial question would be whether the Western Allies would then subsequently be willing to give a part of their occupied territory to the Soviets--almost certainly against the will of the inhabitants of this territory, of course.

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Re: If the July 20th Plot succeeds, which Eastern European countries avoid Communist rule afterwards?

Post by gracie4241 » 16 Jun 2019 19:31

None. The civil war that breaks out immediatey and leadership disarray would radically weaken germany and the result would probably be the same, only quicker. Recall that by July 20 the Soviets already held a good part of the Baltics and were nearing Warsaw. The western Allies (foolishly in my opinion) were committed to Unconditional surrender including the occupation of germany, whether Hitler was alive or not,and partition of it with the USSR connoted Soviet control of points east(eastern Europe)Possible steps that could have limited or even prevented soviet power in Eastern Europe would have had to have been taken much earlier

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Re: If the July 20th Plot succeeds, which Eastern European countries avoid Communist rule afterwards?

Post by Yuri » 17 Jun 2019 00:07

T. A. Gardner wrote:
26 Apr 2019 21:38
But, that in itself brings up an interesting scenario. I'd think the Wehrmacht in the West would simply lay down their arms and surrender wholesale as the Western Allies moved to occupy Germany. In the East, I suspect it might be very different. While some units might surrender, I doubt all, even most, would. Instead, I see them making a fighting retreat west in an attempt to surrender to the Western Allies. I also think the Soviets would be unable in such a situation to fully exploit the surrender and move forward with sufficient troops to successfully occupy much of their zone. It's simply too great a distance for them to support logistically and organizationally particularly if they face ongoing opposition.
I'd think Yugoslavia would still tell the Soviets "Stay the hell out" so that doesn't change.
Hungary might make a separate peace in such an event. If they do, and they want an occupation only by Western Allied forces, that could get interesting. Czechoslovakia might do the same thing. If they are demanding for immediate surrender no Soviet occupation...

I think overall, there might well be a continuation of the war in the East even as the Germans surrender in the West. If that's the case, and the Soviets are unable to occupy their zone by the time the Allies occupy theirs, the Allies might be forced to go further east simply to end the war.
The Soviet Union’s actions to such a dirty trick on the part of the allies would be approximately:
1. The USSR would have refused the US President's request not to cross the border of Finland in 1940 and occupied it.
2. The USSR would order the French and Italian partisans to start fighting against the Anglo-Americans ( 75% are Communists).
3. He would help the guerrillas of Greece to take power in the country.
4. He would have granted General de Gaulle's request to establish the French border on the left Bank of Rhine riever. As a result, the forces of de Gaulle (more than half are Communists) came out of the subordination of the allies and opened hostilities against them.
5. The USSR armed to the general Seydlitz ‘s Army (in the summer of 1944 it was already 500 000) and would recognize him Fuhrer of Germany. He would conclude an agreement with these Germans that Austria, Belgium, Denmark and Holland will be part of the Reich, and in the East of Germany’s border will pass along the Vistula river.
6. He signed an Alliance agreement with Japan.
7. The Red Army would drive the English Force out of Iran and Iraq. Raise a revolt in India, enter in India from the West.
8. The army of Mao would have taken Burma and went into India from the East.
9. In Italy, the Indians in the British army would have sided with the guerrillas.
10. British miners would raise the uprising against Churchill, upon whom these guys since 1927, grew huge teeth.
11. The USSR would conclude an agreement with Turkey that Syria would become part of it. The Turkish army will occupy Syria, and since the British of the middle East Army is almost 100% Indians, it will be very easy to do, the Indians will help Turks.
12. Naturally next in line Australia

Generally if would have made allies such a filth was would fun.

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