John T wrote: ↑27 Jul 2019, 15:09
Sorry but I tried to read this thread from the beginning but had to stop at page 3
Too much "It did not happen, it could not happen", personal insults(both sides) and arrogance.
OTOH It made me curious what would happen if I started a W/I where Max Aitken moved to Berlin in 1910
and Herman Göring(or should it been Milch?) to London in 1920 and the two had the others role during ww2.
So bear with me if this has been covered.
Your assumption that motorized corps would be able to encircle larger soviet forces are reasonable but not fully automatically.
For the initial encirclement, the
logistics would come from German initial deployment so no big difference from the situation in France 1940.
Thereafter you amended the scenario to include a better prepared German
logistics, and then the details went on.
Personally I spent the last couple of years to understand Swedish rail,
and it is interesting to find a US Army manual who obviously mixed up gross and net weight!
To mess into the details I can only add a few issues on
logistics,
what about building the simplified steam engine BR 52 from 1938 ?
And if we scrap the Z-plan early enough, the engineers wasted on designing ships that was never commissioned could spend their brains on other pressing needs.
Like design and build a series of "Kriegsbinnenshiffe" , riverine / costal vessels usable on soviet waterways.
I'm thinking of something similar to the post war soviet Volgo-Balt class.
Built as bulk, RoRo or tanker configuration.
I don't know how damaged soviet waterways where and how much effort would been needed to restore those for German use but this is just one of those measurements Germany could have don to mitigate the supply situation.
the alternate cost is small and they can be used domestically and in western Europe too,
limiting strains on the German domestic railway system.
Of course of no use in winter except as fixed supply points.
(They are usefull in a seelöve scenario too)
thats for
logistics.
The other major assumption you do is the Soviets inability to recover the added lost manpower -
(if this has been discussed just point to the pages in this thread I shall look at)
The thing I have not seen is an analysis on the Soviet losses.
The retreating units where reshaped into fighting units, do you have any numbers on these? when? how reequipped, how many?
And if they where lost, I think the simple rifleman could be replaced quickly.
But how did the Soviets manage officers training - the US 100 day wonders or just promotion from corporal to major with no theoretical training?