TheMarcksPlan wrote: ↑23 Jul 2019, 05:11
The figures from DRZW are more credible than anything produced here. Per those figures, this thread's highest estimate would mean 20 divisions burn 80% of what the entire Ostheer burned over five months of fighting. Admittedly that fighting was mostly defensive (the first 7 weeks were not), but that defensive was quite fluid and involved many counter attacks. 80% is obviously wrong; incremental fuel burn would have been closer to the 60,000t estimate at the lower end of the thread so far.
DRZW is acounting forn consumption only.
This is mathamatcily wrong. DRZW book contains a delivery of x amount of fuel by train, by day and over time, the time being a different year than 41, and those consuming it a different number than the theroritical just moving force in 41. In the 355k theoritical it is a constant value. Consumption and demand are two rather different things but you appear to not understand the difference.
TheMarcksPlan wrote: ↑23 Jul 2019, 05:11
1.000,000 gallons per 75km, 13,333gals/km, 40.7t/km. Moscow is ~1,000km from Bialystok, call the overall advance 1,500km to be safe. At 40.7t/km that's 61,000t fuel consumed: 0.7% of Germany's 1941 fuel budget.
Which is (1500/75) 200*1000000=200000000 gallons, which is 659,707 tons, not 61k tons.
Again you invented a number value to suit your argument.
You keep claiming things that are mathematically wrong. Your own 200k is now over three times the 60k you started with and only short of the 355k because the 355k includes petrol in the supply chain and with the formation to start with, while yours does not. And yours comes with at an extra cost of 2.8 million tons of oil and an increase in refinaring of 50% odd percent, and extra foreign debt of +50% to purchase it, if it can be and it cant because it does not exist to be bought. Requiring another 250000 workers in the refineries, 135k of them skilled.
The article you prefer are from a different time period. German stocks ( 500,000 tons of fuel) for campaign were gone by end of 41, and they are now reliant on what comes from production only and the RR was in chaos in that period. What did not change was a standard unit of train fuel. What has changed is how many tons you claim came on them.
German fuel trains, had a standard net weight of 450 tons,
https://www.hgwdavie.com/blog/2018/3/9/ ... r-19411945 of which there were 2 types, both contain c450 tons of fuel, one is different in that its all in jerry cans, around 30 tons variance could occur.
( problem with using averages, Only five fuel trains reached the Ninth Army between 23 October and 23 November, but this dwarfed the number arriving at the Second Army, which received only one fuel train.)
As for credibility, credibility is 2986 tons delivery a day, for every formation, the book you just used says its more like 750,000 tons on the number of standard rail wagons.
The logistical burden of a extra 20 such would be 20*70*182=254800tons, the on hand stocks it started with adds, 20*860=17200, total of 272000 without whats in the supply chain. Extra 20 Pzr/Mot would require a 15% increase in fuel supply in 41. Using the 2nd pzr as an example of actual consumption.
Effect of increasing fuel cost on EF by increasing Pzr/Mot by 20 formations using 450 ton standard train loads.
TheMarcksPlan wrote: ↑23 Jul 2019, 05:11
Moscow is ~1,000km from Bialystok, call the overall advance 1,500km to be safe.
At 40.7t/km that's 61,000t fuel consumed: 0.7% of Germany's 1941 fuel budget.
Wrong its 8% of the standard train deliveries.
Wrong its 14% of the 448k deliveries.
Your extra fuel burden cost of 20 more Pzr/Mot to mid March would have looked like this.
Supplies delivered til March 1942 using standard train loads.
Example 1) 11 standard trains a day 11*450=5000 a day.
OTL 5000 tons a day.
5 months at 5000 a day. 150*5000=750000 tons.
OTL 153 Divs *5000 =32 tons per day per Div.
ATL
5 months at 5000 a day. 150*5000=750000 tons.
OTL 173 Divs *5000 =28 tons per day per Div
Example 2) 448000 tons deliverd.
OTL 5 months at 2986 a day.
5 months at 2986 a day. 150* 2986=448000tons
OTL 2986/153 = 19 tons a day per Div.
ATL
5 months at 2986 a day. 150* 2986=448000tons
OTL 2986/173 =17 tons per day per Div
Note in your ATL you get 17 tons a klm, your latest hand waving game of HOI fails and you press play new game.
TheMarcksPlan wrote: ↑23 Jul 2019, 05:11
Second Panzer Army burned 111,645t POL during 1941 (I'm using 2PzGr because its composition was fairly uniform throughout the campaign whereas the other PzGr of AGC were highly variable).
2PzGr had 9.5 mobile divisions but also consistently had at least an infantry corps attached to it during operations. As you can see from the posts, the infantry armies actually didn't burn much less fuel than the PzGr.
AGC 519000 tons for 53 Divs for 180 days.
OTL AGC consumed 2883 tons a day, at 53 Divs, thats 54 tons a Div per day. ATL AGC consumed 2883 tons a day, at 73 Divs, thats 39 tons a Div per day.
Effect of 20 extra Pzr/Mot per day is to reduce fuel by 30% for AGC.
Since the XII Inf Corps was detatched inside a week, being held up at Brest livotsk and detached from from Pzr group, fuel consumption was principly for Pzr/mot formations.
2nd Pzr Group 111645 tons. 180 days.
OTL Pzr group consumed, 65 tons a day (111645/180/9.5) it went 2000 klm* without having any INF re attached untill attacking Moscow. We know that the QM report lists the amount of KLM spent on fuel resupply as being 199,384 klm, 309,982 klm of munitions, and 67,073 for spare parts.
AGC consumes 2883 a day, Pzr/Mot consume 43% of POL, extra 20 formations consume 90% of AGC daily deliveries.
9.5 a day *65=617
19.5 a day *65 =1267
20 extra:39.5 a day *65=2567
God forbid any of the extra 20 should be required to fire a shot in anger. 153 formations, consumed, Toppe: 571663 tons in 1941;(average 20.5 tons a formation for 153 but 18 tons for 173) So an average reduction of 10% in munitions expenditure in 41. Or increased munitions production of 74620 tons, and cost to deliver for consumption of it are required for the proposed increase.
*TABLE 1 OBJECTIVES ACHIEVED BY THE SECOND PANZER GROUP
JUNE TO DECEMBER, 1941
TIME ROUTE OR AREA DIRECTION DISTANCE
June 22-July 16 (25 days) Brest to Smolensk east 400 miles
July 17-August 24
(39 days) Yelnya (static) 0 miles
August 25-September 22
(29 days) Roslavl to Lochvitz south 300 miles
September 23-0ctober 1
(9 days) Lochvitz to Yanopol north 200 miles
October 2-December 5
(35 days) Yanopol to Skopin east 300 milees
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