If the US wasn't in Philippines in 1941, would it have made any difference in Japan's decision to attack Pearl Harbor?

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If the US wasn't in Philippines in 1941, would it have made any difference in Japan's decision to attack Pearl Harbor?

Post by Futurist » 14 May 2019 06:07

If the US would not have been in the Philippines in 1941 (either as a result of withdrawing earlier or a result of never conquering the Philippines in the first place due to the lack of a Spanish-American War in this scenario), would it have made any difference in Japan's decision to attack Pearl Harbor?

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Re: If the US wasn't in Philippines in 1941, would it have made any difference in Japan's decision to attack Pearl Harbo

Post by OpanaPointer » 14 May 2019 10:03

One datum point doesn't describe the world.
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Re: If the US wasn't in Philippines in 1941, would it have made any difference in Japan's decision to attack Pearl Harbo

Post by Futurist » 14 May 2019 20:07

OpanaPointer wrote:
14 May 2019 10:03
One datum point doesn't describe the world.
Theoretically speaking, though, one change could make a difference in certain events. For instance, would a different German leader have actually been willing to risk war with Britain and France in 1938 and 1939?

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Re: If the US wasn't in Philippines in 1941, would it have made any difference in Japan's decision to attack Pearl Harbo

Post by OpanaPointer » 14 May 2019 20:35

Futurist wrote:
14 May 2019 20:07
OpanaPointer wrote:
14 May 2019 10:03
One datum point doesn't describe the world.
Theoretically speaking, though, one change could make a difference in certain events. For instance, would a different German leader have actually been willing to risk war with Britain and France in 1938 and 1939?
How does the Japanese militarists' attitude toward the US change? Does the Amur River Society have different aims for China? Do the American public identify more strongly with the Japanese than they do with the British or Dutch? Have the Americans never been the Philippines? Are T. V. Soong and the Dragon Lady still keeping the war in China in the US papers? Is the Nine Power Treaty being respected by any and all?
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Re: If the US wasn't in Philippines in 1941, would it have made any difference in Japan's decision to attack Pearl Harbo

Post by maltesefalcon » 15 May 2019 00:30

The Japanese decision was initially based on occupation of the colonies of France, the UK and the Netherlands. This in order to negate in some ways the US led embargo. Also to strengthen the Japanese economy to be more self sufficient.

The US would not likely stand aside as the Japanese occipied much of the South and Central Pacific. They were already quite distressed about incursions into China. In all likelihood the tensions would escalate.

As such Japan could not leave a sizeable US force in being to threaten their supply routes.

The main threat was not the Philippine islands themselves, but the forces thereon. That was the reason for the attack. Same with Pearl Harbor. Had the US not stationed major forces in the Philippines, they likely would have been at Pearl.

And not having any forces in the Philippines does not mean an easier road for Japan. IRL the US was pushed off the islands early in 1942, but Japan lost anyway.

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Re: If the US wasn't in Philippines in 1941, would it have made any difference in Japan's decision to attack Pearl Harbo

Post by Takao » 15 May 2019 11:17

The Philippines made no difference to the decision to attack Pearl Harbor. In fact, the original Japanese GHQ plan did not include an attack on PH. Yamamoto was the sole driving force behind PH, remove him, and there is no Japanese attack on PH. Of course this implies that the Pacific Fleet is still based there.

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Re: If the US wasn't in Philippines in 1941, would it have made any difference in Japan's decision to attack Pearl Harbo

Post by OpanaPointer » 16 May 2019 13:10

If you read the monographs here http://ibiblio.org/pha/monos/, you will see the progression of thought that lead the Japanese to advance into the Southern Resources Area, and why they didn't select the Northern Resources Area.
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Re: If the US wasn't in Philippines in 1941, would it have made any difference in Japan's decision to attack Pearl Harbo

Post by Baldir » 17 May 2019 11:21

American presence in the Philippines made no difference for japanese policy. It only affected their tactical plans, PH would still be attacked.

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Re: If the US wasn't in Philippines in 1941, would it have made any difference in Japan's decision to attack Pearl Harbo

Post by rcocean » 13 Jun 2019 22:46

Futurist wrote:
14 May 2019 06:07
If the US would not have been in the Philippines in 1941 (either as a result of withdrawing earlier or a result of never conquering the Philippines in the first place due to the lack of a Spanish-American War in this scenario), would it have made any difference in Japan's decision to attack Pearl Harbor?
Yes, its doubtful any Japanese attack would've been made if we had withdrawn from the Philippines before 1941. American naval and AF units based in the Philippines were in a perfect position to cut the Japanese supply line between Malaysia/N.E.I/Indochina and Japan. Or attack Japanese units fighting in Singapore. The IJN felt they couldn't take that chance, and had to "take out" the US Pacific Fleet.

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Re: If the US wasn't in Philippines in 1941, would it have made any difference in Japan's decision to attack Pearl Harbo

Post by Futurist » 16 Jun 2019 03:57

OpanaPointer wrote:
14 May 2019 20:35
Futurist wrote:
14 May 2019 20:07
OpanaPointer wrote:
14 May 2019 10:03
One datum point doesn't describe the world.
Theoretically speaking, though, one change could make a difference in certain events. For instance, would a different German leader have actually been willing to risk war with Britain and France in 1938 and 1939?
How does the Japanese militarists' attitude toward the US change? Does the Amur River Society have different aims for China? Do the American public identify more strongly with the Japanese than they do with the British or Dutch? Have the Americans never been the Philippines? Are T. V. Soong and the Dragon Lady still keeping the war in China in the US papers? Is the Nine Power Treaty being respected by any and all?
You can answer the rest of the questions here however you would like. However, in regards to the US never being in the Philippines, I would like to create two scenarios:

1. The US is never in the Philippines and instead either the Philippines becomes independent in 1898 or Spain retains the Philippines after 1898.
2. The US was previously in the Philippines but gives them independence sometime before 1940-1941.

In both of these scenarios, you can answer the rest of the questions here however you would like. :)

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Re: If the US wasn't in Philippines in 1941, would it have made any difference in Japan's decision to attack Pearl Harbo

Post by OpanaPointer » 16 Jun 2019 08:16

The Philippines were not going to be independent after the Spanish-American War. Somebody would have "protected" them. Germany, Japan, Great Britain, France, somebody.
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Re: If the US wasn't in Philippines in 1941, would it have made any difference in Japan's decision to attack Pearl Harbo

Post by Futurist » 16 Jun 2019 18:53

OpanaPointer wrote:
16 Jun 2019 08:16
The Philippines were not going to be independent after the Spanish-American War. Somebody would have "protected" them. Germany, Japan, Great Britain, France, somebody.
What about if there would have been no Spanish-American War in the first place due to having the USS Maine sink on US soil rather than on Cuban soil, though?

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Re: If the US wasn't in Philippines in 1941, would it have made any difference in Japan's decision to attack Pearl Harbo

Post by OpanaPointer » 16 Jun 2019 18:59

Futurist wrote:
16 Jun 2019 18:53
OpanaPointer wrote:
16 Jun 2019 08:16
The Philippines were not going to be independent after the Spanish-American War. Somebody would have "protected" them. Germany, Japan, Great Britain, France, somebody.
What about if there would have been no Spanish-American War in the first place due to having the USS Maine sink on US soil rather than on Cuban soil, though?
Remember who was the assistant secretary of the Navy in that period.
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Re: If the US wasn't in Philippines in 1941, would it have made any difference in Japan's decision to attack Pearl Harbo

Post by Futurist » 16 Jun 2019 19:38

OpanaPointer wrote:
16 Jun 2019 18:59
Futurist wrote:
16 Jun 2019 18:53
OpanaPointer wrote:
16 Jun 2019 08:16
The Philippines were not going to be independent after the Spanish-American War. Somebody would have "protected" them. Germany, Japan, Great Britain, France, somebody.
What about if there would have been no Spanish-American War in the first place due to having the USS Maine sink on US soil rather than on Cuban soil, though?
Remember who was the assistant secretary of the Navy in that period.
TR. However, would he have actually had enough clout to get the US into the Spanish-American War without the USS Maine sinking on Cuban soil?

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Re: If the US wasn't in Philippines in 1941, would it have made any difference in Japan's decision to attack Pearl Harbo

Post by OpanaPointer » 17 Jun 2019 02:39

Add the yellow press and you have a winner.
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