What if: UK/France/USSR/Poland anti-Hitler alliance in 1939

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TheMarcksPlan
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What if: UK/France/USSR/Poland anti-Hitler alliance in 1939

Post by TheMarcksPlan » 06 Jul 2019 23:35

I'm starting this thread because it came up in another thread and isn't really relevant there.

Here's my post that started the discussion:
TheMarcksPlan wrote:As far the Jews of Europe are concerned we did let Hitler win.
He should have been stopped no later than 1939 when there was an opportunity for France/UK/USSR anti-Hitler coalition.
This didn't happen because the Poles wouldn't allow Stalin to cross their borders. But the Poles took that stance in reliance on basically lies from France/UK that they would intervene effectively to preserve Poland. Had UK/France been honest and said to Poland "Stalin's your only chance - choose between him and Hitler" then the grand coalition probably could have been sealed.
That's a far better "what if" for world history but also kind of boring militarily: Germany loses quite rapidly because (1) its economy collapses due to blockade, including Soviet/Western interference with Swedish iron ore shipments, (2) militarily it doesn't have sufficient strength to defeat France while defending against SU.
If you add US to this coalition - either actively or via more military aid - it gets easier.
WW2 should have been a relatively simple affair and Hitler just a brief crazy blip on history.
Here's the first response:
ljadw wrote:This proves not having even an elementary knowledge of the pre war period .
1 The SU had NO intention to join a coalition against Hitler . There was no reason for them to do this .
2 France and the UK did not promise to intervene to preserve Poland .
3 The promises of Britain and France had no influence on the attitude of Poland .Poland said already no to the German demands in the winter of 1938/1939 , before the French/British guarentee .And there was no reason for Poland to accept Soviet forces in Poland .
4 France and Britain had not the power to start a big offensive in 1939 that would save Poland .
5 The influence of the Iron ore shipments from Sweden is much overestimated
6 US could not intervene in 1939 :
militarily it was powerless
more economic aid would not help and was impossible
Congress would never declare war in 1939 : proof ? There was no US DOW when Germany attacked Poland .
The foreign policy of France and Britain before the war had only one aim : preventing war, IOW appeasement .They did not need Poland that was militarily unimportant . The only reason they had to declare war was morality : they could not look the other way if Hitler attacked an other country,Poland, or an other one . They had told Hitler that he could get Poland, on the condition that it happened without war .
Hitler did not understand this .He argued as a pre WWI politician, when morality remained where its place was : locked up in a box and released when there were elections ,and locked up again the evening of the elections . Britain and France did not declare war when Italy attacked the Ottoman Empire , if Poland existed before 1914, they would also not declare war if Germany /Russia attacked Poland .
Please continue discussion of this issue here instead of in the other thread.
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Re: What if: UK/France/USSR/Poland anti-Hitler alliance in 1939

Post by maltesefalcon » 06 Jul 2019 23:59

Europe and Soviets actually had a real opportunity to do so in 1938 to stand up for the Czechs, but there was little willingness to fight from France and the UK at this time. After this, Stalin felt politically isolated. In the event of an early Soviet/German conflict that did not involve western Europe, he was worried that the UK and France would stand by and let the two dictatorships weaken each other.

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Re: What if: UK/France/USSR/Poland anti-Hitler alliance in 1939

Post by TheMarcksPlan » 07 Jul 2019 01:49

maltesefalcon wrote:
06 Jul 2019 23:59
Europe and Soviets actually had a real opportunity to do so in 1938 to stand up for the Czechs, but there was little willingness to fight from France and the UK at this time. After this, Stalin felt politically isolated. In the event of an early Soviet/German conflict that did not involve western Europe, he was worried that the UK and France would stand by and let the two dictatorships weaken each other.
Sure he was worried about the west not pulling its weight in war but that's kind of up to Germany as well. Most would have expected a German strike at France before pushing into the depths of the SU, just as in the last war.

Stalin was negotiating with West about a coalition but Britain refused to send even a minister-level official to Moscow and Chamberlain was openly talking shit about Stalin throughout this period. I mean fine, Stalin deserved a lot of shit-talking but the west really had no plan to save Poland in 1939 and shouldn't have pretended like it did.
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Re: What if: UK/France/USSR/Poland anti-Hitler alliance in 1939

Post by TheMarcksPlan » 07 Jul 2019 01:55

At first blush there are two interesting questions if the "what if" comes about:

(1) Does Hitler back down if he knows the Red Army will back Poland? Even Hitler knew that Germany was fucked in a two-front war; his whole strategy from 33-43 was to avoid this. If he does back down in 1939, how stable and enduring is the coalition?

(2) How long does the ATL war last if Hitler provokes everyone? IMO Romanian oil and Swedish ore would quickly be lost to Germany either through overwhelming diplomatic pressure or Allied intervention (Russian attack on Ploesit, UK/France/Russia close the Baltic and/or Narvik. Wehrmacht can't last much past 1940 as Germany's oil/ore stocks would be gone. Odds of a successful anti-Hitler coup rise as well.
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Re: What if: UK/France/USSR/Poland anti-Hitler alliance in 1939

Post by ljadw » 07 Jul 2019 05:11

maltesefalcon wrote:
06 Jul 2019 23:59
Europe and Soviets actually had a real opportunity to do so in 1938 to stand up for the Czechs, but there was little willingness to fight from France and the UK at this time. After this, Stalin felt politically isolated. In the event of an early Soviet/German conflict that did not involve western Europe, he was worried that the UK and France would stand by and let the two dictatorships weaken each other.
This real opportunity did not exist :
''Europe " , better France and Britain ,could only fight IF Germany attacked CZ ( Not the Czechs ) and THEY WOULD FIGHT if this happened, but it did not happen . There was a quarrel between Germany and CZ, but as long as this quarrel did not evolve into war,the hands of France and Britain were tied .
About the Soviets : it seems that you are unaware that the USSR had no common border with CZ .And that it could thus not intervene .And, the isolation of the USSR was not caused by Munich .

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Re: What if: UK/France/USSR/Poland anti-Hitler alliance in 1939

Post by ljadw » 07 Jul 2019 05:13

TheMarcksPlan wrote:
07 Jul 2019 01:49
maltesefalcon wrote:
06 Jul 2019 23:59
Europe and Soviets actually had a real opportunity to do so in 1938 to stand up for the Czechs, but there was little willingness to fight from France and the UK at this time. After this, Stalin felt politically isolated. In the event of an early Soviet/German conflict that did not involve western Europe, he was worried that the UK and France would stand by and let the two dictatorships weaken each other.
Sure he was worried about the west not pulling its weight in war but that's kind of up to Germany as well. Most would have expected a German strike at France before pushing into the depths of the SU, just as in the last war.

Stalin was negotiating with West about a coalition but Britain refused to send even a minister-level official to Moscow and Chamberlain was openly talking shit about Stalin throughout this period. I mean fine, Stalin deserved a lot of shit-talking but the west really had no plan to save Poland in 1939 and shouldn't have pretended like it did.
Stalin was not negociating with the West about a coalition against Germany .

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Re: What if: UK/France/USSR/Poland anti-Hitler alliance in 1939

Post by TheMarcksPlan » 07 Jul 2019 05:37

ljadw wrote:Stalin was not negociating with the West about a coalition against Germany .
Heard of Google? From Wikipedia with cites to sources:
May tripartite negotiations
Although informal consultations started in late April, the main negotiations between the Soviet Union, Britain and France began in May.[31] At a meeting in May 1939, the French Foreign Minister Georges Bonnet told the Soviet Ambassador to France Jakob Suritz that he was willing to support turning over all of eastern Poland to the Soviet Union, regardless of Polish opposition, if that was the price of an alliance with Moscow.[74]
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Molotov%E ... gotiations

Turning over all of Eastern Poland is, of course, what the Allies did - only 50million deaths later. There was no feasible route to saving Poland without Soviet help and everybody, including the lying British, knew it at the time (everyone but the Poles I guess).
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Re: What if: UK/France/USSR/Poland anti-Hitler alliance in 1939

Post by ljadw » 07 Jul 2019 05:41

TheMarcksPlan wrote:
07 Jul 2019 01:55


(2) How long does the ATL war last if Hitler provokes everyone? IMO Romanian oil and Swedish ore would quickly be lost to Germany either through overwhelming diplomatic pressure or Allied intervention (Russian attack on Ploesit, UK/France/Russia close the Baltic and/or Narvik. Wehrmacht can't last much past 1940 as Germany's oil/ore stocks would be gone. Odds of a successful anti-Hitler coup rise as well.
This proves that the old myths never die .
German oil production/imports in 1940
Crude domestic oil : 1,465,000 tons
Synthetic oil :3,348,000 tons
Imports : 2,075,000 tons and only a part of these imports came from Romania .
Total : 6,888,000 tons
There is no proof at all for your claim that without the oil imports from Romania,Germany's oil stocks would be gone .There is a proof for the opposite : Romanian oil exports to Gemany stopped in September 1944, but German oil stocks were not gone .
And, as Hitler did not provoke everyone, your ATL is onlt a house of cards built on quicksand .

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Re: What if: UK/France/USSR/Poland anti-Hitler alliance in 1939

Post by ljadw » 07 Jul 2019 05:50

TheMarcksPlan wrote:
07 Jul 2019 05:37
ljadw wrote:Stalin was not negociating with the West about a coalition against Germany .
Heard of Google? From Wikipedia with cites to sources:
May tripartite negotiations
Although informal consultations started in late April, the main negotiations between the Soviet Union, Britain and France began in May.[31] At a meeting in May 1939, the French Foreign Minister Georges Bonnet told the Soviet Ambassador to France Jakob Suritz that he was willing to support turning over all of eastern Poland to the Soviet Union, regardless of Polish opposition, if that was the price of an alliance with Moscow.[74]
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Molotov%E ... gotiations

Turning over all of Eastern Poland is, of course, what the Allies did - only 50million deaths later. There was no feasible route to saving Poland without Soviet help and everybody, including the lying British, knew it at the time (everyone but the Poles I guess).
There were NO negociations about a coalition against Germany, because such a coalition would only be needed if there was a war .And the policy of Britain and France was to do everything to prevent a war with Germany, not to fight with the USSR against Germany .
And what Wiki is saying about Bonnet is nonsense : France could NOT turn over the eastern part of Poland to the SU,only Poland could do this . And the USSR knew it . Other point : France had a pact with Poland AGAINST the USSR . Thus ... Besides, if the SU received the eastern part of Poland, why would it fight for the rest of Poland ?
Last point : what is your proof that Britain was lying ?

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Re: What if: UK/France/USSR/Poland anti-Hitler alliance in 1939

Post by TheMarcksPlan » 07 Jul 2019 06:07

ljadw wrote:Imports : 2,075,000 tons and only a part of these imports came from Romania .
Total : 6,888,000 tons
Oh so Germany only loses 30% of its 1940 oil [the rest came from SU, which obviously isn't supplying in this ATL].
A 30% cut to oil has serious impacts on either Germany's economy or its operational abilities. And you need to supply forces fighting throughout the year against France/UK/SU instead of for six weeks in France.
And what about the lack of iron ore? Lack of manganese and chromium? Lack of grain? Lack of tungsten? Without USSR's trade and with the Baltic insecure, Germany's economy is done.
In fact, Hitler probably backs down at least for 1939. What happens thereafter is harder to say.
ljadw wrote:There were NO negociations about a coalition against Germany, because such a coalition would only be needed if there was a war .And the policy of Britain and France was to do everything to prevent a war with Germany, not to fight with the USSR against Germany .
The levels of stupidity in this excerpt are just astounding. You don't form a war coalition before a war, you wait until the war has started then see if you can form a coalition? UK was doing EVERYTHING to prevent war with Germany yet declared war on Germany? I'm beginning to suspect you're brain dead.
ljadw wrote:And what Wiki is saying about Bonnet is nonsense : France could NOT turn over the eastern part of Poland to the SU,only Poland could do this .
Bullshit. Who turned over Eastern Poland to Stalin? Let me give you a hint, it wasn't the Polish.
ljadw wrote:Last point : what is your proof that Britain was lying ?
It told Poland it would intervene to protect from Germany; UK and France did basically nothing. They watched Hitler swallow Poland as their pre-war plans envisioned.
ljadw wrote:Besides, if the SU received the eastern part of Poland, why would it fight for the rest of Poland ?
Again I suspect you're brain dead. A conditional offer of Eastern Poland based on fighting against Germany implies actually fighting against Germany. Do you understand or did you swim around the fish bowl again and forget the ATL?
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Re: What if: UK/France/USSR/Poland anti-Hitler alliance in 1939

Post by ljadw » 07 Jul 2019 08:13

A lot of nonsense .
About the oil : it is on YOU, not on me , to prove your claim that Germany would be without oil,without the imports from Romania .
About grain and manganese : it is on you to prove that Germany would collaps without additional imports of grain,iron ore and manganese. And I notice that you are unable to say from where the additional im ports of manganese and gain would come .
About Eastern Poland : it was Hitler who turned it to Stalin, not Britain and France .
There were NO negotiations you still have no notion about what negotiations are : ONLY Poland could ask the USSR if its army would enter Poland, not France or Britain .That's why the Soviets rightly suspected that the whole thing was only blahblah for domestic use .
And when the Soviets said that they could mobilize 100 divisions, Britain said that it would send 2 divisions . Something the Soviets considered as laughing in the face .
There could be only negotiations between Poland and the SU . And as these never happened...
Britain was NOT lying : it said that it would give Poland all AVAILABLE support if it was attacked by Germany . And only Britain could determine what was available .NOT you : it is on YOU (again ) to prove that Britain could have done more than it did and than it promised.
About Bonnet : he had not the power to promise the USSR a part of Poland,and the Soviets knew this .And, there was no reason for the Soviets to fight against Germany after Poland would give them a part of its territory .AFTER, because the Soviets had first to enter eastern Poland ,before they could fight against the Germans .
Hitler promised them a part of Poland if they remained neutral . Bonnet said that he would force Poland to give them a part of Poland if they would fight against Germany .Whose offer was more serious and was better for the USSR ?
You still have failed to give one good reason why the USSR would fight to preserve Poland as it existed in 1939 .
US remained neutral in 1939, thus why are you blaming the SU for doing the same as the USA ?

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Re: What if: UK/France/USSR/Poland anti-Hitler alliance in 1939

Post by MarkN » 07 Jul 2019 10:02

TheMarcksPlan wrote:As far the Jews of Europe are concerned we did let Hitler win.
He should have been stopped no later than 1939 when there was an opportunity for France/UK/USSR anti-Hitler coalition.
This didn't happen because the Poles wouldn't allow Stalin to cross their borders.
:roll:

Is your latest ahistorical fantasy based upon CCCP signing a non-aggression treaty of friendship with Germany AND at the same time plotting against it by forming a coalition with France and Britain?

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Re: What if: UK/France/USSR/Poland anti-Hitler alliance in 1939

Post by MarkN » 07 Jul 2019 10:06

ljadw wrote:
07 Jul 2019 08:13
Soviets knew this .And, there was no reason for the Soviets to fight against Germany after Poland would give them a part of its territory .AFTER, because the Soviets had first to enter eastern Poland ,before they could fight against the Germans .
Hitler promised them a part of Poland if they remained neutral . Bonnet said that he would force Poland to give them a part of Poland if they would fight against Germany .Whose offer was more serious and was better for the USSR ?
You still have failed to give one good reason why the USSR would fight to preserve Poland as it existed in 1939 .
US remained neutral in 1939, thus why are you blaming the SU for doing the same as the USA ?
What garbage you're coming up with now.

The CCCP was never neutral. Communist Muscovy was a co-conspirator with the Nazis.

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Re: What if: UK/France/USSR/Poland anti-Hitler alliance in 1939

Post by ljadw » 07 Jul 2019 11:18

MarkN wrote:
07 Jul 2019 10:06
ljadw wrote:
07 Jul 2019 08:13
Soviets knew this .And, there was no reason for the Soviets to fight against Germany after Poland would give them a part of its territory .AFTER, because the Soviets had first to enter eastern Poland ,before they could fight against the Germans .
Hitler promised them a part of Poland if they remained neutral . Bonnet said that he would force Poland to give them a part of Poland if they would fight against Germany .Whose offer was more serious and was better for the USSR ?
You still have failed to give one good reason why the USSR would fight to preserve Poland as it existed in 1939 .
US remained neutral in 1939, thus why are you blaming the SU for doing the same as the USA ?
. Communist Muscovy was a co-conspirator with the Nazis.
Prove it .
Hitler was at war with Poland, the SU was not at war with Poland . Thus the SU was neutral ,til June 22 1941 .

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Re: What if: UK/France/USSR/Poland anti-Hitler alliance in 1939

Post by ljadw » 07 Jul 2019 11:23

TheMarcksPlan wrote:
07 Jul 2019 05:37
ljadw wrote:Stalin was not negociating with the West about a coalition against Germany .
Heard of Google? From Wikipedia with cites to sources:
May tripartite negotiations
Although informal consultations started in late April, the main negotiations between the Soviet Union, Britain and France began in May.[31] At a meeting in May 1939, the French Foreign Minister Georges Bonnet told the Soviet Ambassador to France Jakob Suritz that he was willing to support turning over all of eastern Poland to the Soviet Union, regardless of Polish opposition, if that was the price of an alliance with Moscow.[74]
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Molotov%E ... gotiations

There was no feasible route to saving Poland without Soviet help
Britain and France had not the intention to save Poland, but to destroy Germany if it attacked Poland .
Besides, no one could save Poland on September 1 1939 : if Hitler won, it was over for Poland, if Hitler lost,it was also over for Poland .
And, Britain and France had no obligation to save Poland : there was no reason,no obligation, no possibility to save Poland .

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