What if the Germans take England And the B36 becomes operational

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Anthonycumia1776
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What if the Germans take England And the B36 becomes operational

Post by Anthonycumia1776 » 22 Oct 2019 04:02

Lets say the German armed forces roll over England and it is lost in say Early 1941

Part two, the B36 was ordered 2 years earlier and is around 6 months from full operational status.

HistoryGeek2019
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Re: What if the Germans take England And the B36 becomes operational

Post by HistoryGeek2019 » 22 Oct 2019 18:10

Then America would have nuked Germany into oblivion.

Germany was dead no matter what it did in WW2.

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wm
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Re: What if the Germans take England And the B36 becomes operational

Post by wm » 22 Oct 2019 20:51

The early bombs were quite weak, you couldn't do oblivion with them.

In Hiroshima, a guy survived directly under the explosion - in a cellar. Others in buildings just a few hundred feet from it.
Japanese cities were made from paper and wood, German cities from bricks and concrete - that made a huge difference.

You would have to send millions of soldiers and without the Soviets on the other side of Europe, millions of them wouldn't return home.
The Americans wouldn't like that - at all.

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Re: What if the Germans take England And the B36 becomes operational

Post by HistoryGeek2019 » 22 Oct 2019 21:24

It's not like there was any time limit. America would have kept developing newer and better bombers and bombs while the Germans putzed around with idiotic designs like the He-177 and the "Amerika Bomber". Curtis LeMay would have happily nuked Germany into the stone age well into the 1950s.

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wm
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Re: What if the Germans take England And the B36 becomes operational

Post by wm » 22 Oct 2019 22:23

An Elektroboot would leave a nuclear bomb in Gravesend Bay, the resulting 100 feet hight tsunami would sweep New York clean, and the highly radioactive base surge that follows would make it uninhabitable.
I don't think the New Yorkers would like that.
Even a quite weak underwater nuclear explosion is nasty beyond belief.
And the US had many costal cities worthy of an underwater nuclear detonation.

The Germans would evacuate all civilians to the countryside, essential industry too. In cities, only some Germans would remain to guard millions of slave workers working there.
So you wouldn't kill Germans but Poles, Czechs, French - by millions.

And would you bomb French, British, Polish, Czech, Hungarian cities where the majority of the arms industry was located?
It's not about sending Germany into the stone age, it's entire Europe.

It would be like the Vietnam War only much nastier.
The Germans didn't have to win it, they had to make it uncomfortable to the Americans - as it happened in Vietnam.

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Re: What if the Germans take England And the B36 becomes operational

Post by HistoryGeek2019 » 22 Oct 2019 23:32

Germany had no atomic bomb capabilities. By the time they got the bomb, Germany would be a pile of smouldering ash. And nearly all of their arms industry was in Germany. The occupied countries contributed basically nothing to arms output, other than conscripted labor. And America had no qualms about carpet bombing occupied countries during the war anyway.

I love how in these alternate scenarios, the Americans and British always lack the will to fight and give up as soon as things get difficult, while the Germans are mythical supermen who keep fighting no matter what.

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Re: What if the Germans take England And the B36 becomes operational

Post by wm » 22 Oct 2019 23:46

The Soviets needed 4 years to built the bomb from scratch. The Germans would do it in 2 years.

It's not about bombing a French factory in Paris and killing a few hundred French civilians.
It's about bombing the same factory and killing a million of them.
Not going to happen.

That there was nothing in France and Britain is quite optimistic. Actually the production capacity of Britain alone was the same as Germany's.

There were numerous essential industries in Central Europe. We might start with the enormous Skoda Works, Silesia Industrial Region (one of the largest in Europe), Romanian petroleum fields, and the synthetic rubber plant in Auschwitz.

Are you ready to detonate the big one over KL Auschwitz and its 100,000 prisoners?
Assuming you would be able to avoid swarms of German jets, significantly faster than the B-36.
Last edited by wm on 23 Oct 2019 07:41, edited 2 times in total.

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Re: What if the Germans take England And the B36 becomes operational

Post by maltesefalcon » 23 Oct 2019 00:05

Not impossible to achieve but a whole order of magnitude more difficult. There would be no question of fighter support or intermediate landing zones for wounded ducks. Losses would be high therefore. (No matter how high they flew, eventually the Germans would develop an aircraft that could cope.)

Little to no recce either, as the trip would be too long. In any case, the volitility of the weather in North West Europe would ensure any data would be obsolete by the time the bombing force arrived.

Nav errors would be magnified over a trans-Atlantic sortie. The real life situation was bad enough. Crews sometimes bombed the wrong city, let alone the wrong aiming point.

Finally, we need to examine what the real impact of the bombing force was. It caused damage for sure, but its biggest contribution was to draw the German fighters up to be shot down by their Allied counterparts. Again, no fighters, no air superiority. No air superiority, no invasion.

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Re: What if the Germans take England And the B36 becomes operational

Post by HistoryGeek2019 » 23 Oct 2019 00:50

If Germany conquered Britain, America would have just taken Iceland, Shetland, Ireland, the Azores, Canaries, Cape Verde, Morocco, North Africa, and eventually Turkey, Greece, Italy and Spain. Germany still wouldn't have had a navy, while the Royal Navy would have gone to Canada and received unlimited supplies from America. The US Navy easily supported logistical operations all the way across the Pacific (and Japan had a much stronger navy than Germany). It would have been even easier to do in the Atlantic.

Germany therefore has no chromium for their jets because the US either occupies Turkey or Turkey sees the writing on the wall and refuses to sell chromium to Germany. Ditto for Portugal and their tungsten. And it's not like Germany could reach Baku (and even if they did, America would have bombed it into oblivion).

What that all means is that Germany has no jets to counter the USAF (no chromium = no jets), and not enough oil to train pilots faster than they die (German fighter pilots suffered a 90% casualty rate during the war). So the USAF still has complete and total domination of the skies over Europe, flying from bases in North Africa, Shetland, Corsica, Sardinia, Malta, Sicily, Crete, Cyprus and the Middle East. Curtis LeMay can practice a whole new level of strategic air warfare as he demolishes Germany brick by brick.

And the captured industries of occupied countries were worthless because of the British blockade (American blockade in this scenario), and because the Germans stripped them of everything and transported it back to Germany, boosting Germany's output, but only to a fraction of that of the USA.

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T. A. Gardner
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Re: What if the Germans take England And the B36 becomes operational

Post by T. A. Gardner » 23 Oct 2019 01:07

HistoryGeek2019 wrote:
22 Oct 2019 18:10
Then America would have nuked Germany into oblivion.

Germany was dead no matter what it did in WW2.
I agree. The US might well take a "Japan first" approach to the war while developing systems and weapons to deal with Germany. Against Germany the US and Allies might settle initially for containment and keeping the USSR in the war. There's a possibility in such a scenario the Russians agree to US and Allied forces fighting in Russia.

This scenario is simply too open ended to give a good response to.

Once the US has nuclear weapons, they could begin obliterating German cities. I could see Ploesti being wiped off the map. There goes like 25% of Germany's oil... That doesn't take a B-36.

Even the B-29, and particularly the B-29D (aka B-50) would have been hard to stop. And those can tote an incredible load.

Image

That's double the load of a Lancaster at a higher speed and altitude...

The B-29 is pushing the limit of AA artillery at it's operating altitude. So, the Germans would need a better system than what they had to counter that plane.

Since the US would still know about jet engines, there's no reason to think they wouldn't develop them. All they'd need is something like this:

Image

That would all but render German gun based flak useless. It would mean having to develop a whole new paradigm in the Luftwaffe to counter such an aircraft. Given the issues the German aircraft industry had with producing a pressurized plane, that alone is going to be an issue that won't be overcome easily

As far as striking Europe and Britain there's always...

Image

That's Iceland's Reykjavik airport today but what's to say that the US doesn't just pave over the island with roads and runways like they did Tinian...

Image

Now, B-17, B-24, B-29's are all effective heavy bombers striking targets in England and on continental Europe.

In the end, GERMANY LOSES!

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Robert Rojas
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Re: What if the Germans take England And the B36 becomes operational

Post by Robert Rojas » 23 Oct 2019 01:10

Greetings to both brother Anthonycumia1776 and the community as a whole. Howdy Anthony (or Tony if you so prefer)! Well sir, in reference to your introductory posting of Monday - October 21, 2019 - 7:02pm, old yours truly is rather doubtful about the Fatherland's prospects of a swift victory over the British isles in your proposed time line of May 1941. In terms of strength anyway, the United Kingdom had pretty much recovered from their weakened state from May 1940. I would assert that a latter day Operation Sea lion would have foundered either on the beaches of southern England and or in the waters of the English Channel. In short, the British, the Canadians and the Free French would have made short shrift of the Fatherland's ill advised experiment in amphibious warfare. Now that I've said my peace on the first half of your scenario, even if the British Isles had been conquered and subjugated by the minions of the all knowing Bohemian Corporal, the United States Army Air Corps would not necessarily be compelled to attack targets in the now Fascist Commonwealth of Europe from far flung bases in North America. Now, whether you know this or not, both the British and the Canadians occupied the nation of ICELAND from May 10, 1940 through July 17, 1941. After July 17, 1941 the role of occupier was subsequently turned over to the United States of America. With ICELAND as a forward base, the Convair B-36 Peacemaker Strategic Bomber would certainly be in a greater geographic position to attack virtually any target in either Europe proper or the Mediterranean Basin. Incidentally, the Convair B-36 Peacemaker Strategic Bomber did NOT make its maiden flight until August 08, 1946. I, for one, believe you're being terribly over optimistic when such squadrons would be fully operational. Finally, I would like to add my voice to the clarion chorus to the other contributors to this thread that assert Adolph Hitler's One Thousand Year Reich is clearly doomed. Atomic weapons notwithstanding, both General Curtis LeMay and Air Marshal Sir Arthur Travers Harris will also retain a panoply of Chemical and Biological ordnance to rain down upon the so-called "Master Race". Well. that's my initial two Yankee Cents worth on this sojourn down the road to perdition - for now anyway, In any case, I would like to bid you an especially copacetic day from sea to shining sea.

Best Regards,
Uncle Bob :idea: :|
"It is well that war is so terrible, or we should grow too fond of it" - Robert E. Lee

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Re: What if the Germans take England And the B36 becomes operational

Post by maltesefalcon » 23 Oct 2019 02:55

T. A. Gardner wrote:
23 Oct 2019 01:07
HistoryGeek2019 wrote:
22 Oct 2019 18:10
Then America would have nuked Germany into oblivion.

Germany was dead no matter what it did in WW2.
I agree. The US might well take a "Japan first" approach to the war while developing systems and weapons to deal with Germany. Against Germany the US and Allies might settle initially for containment and keeping the USSR in the war. There's a possibility in such a scenario the Russians agree to US and Allied forces fighting in Russia.

This scenario is simply too open ended to give a good response to.

Once the US has nuclear weapons, they could begin obliterating German cities. I could see Ploesti being wiped off the map. There goes like 25% of Germany's oil... That doesn't take a B-36.

Even the B-29, and particularly the B-29D (aka B-50) would have been hard to stop. And those can tote an incredible load.

Image

That's double the load of a Lancaster at a higher speed and altitude...

The B-29 is pushing the limit of AA artillery at it's operating altitude. So, the Germans would need a better system than what they had to counter that plane.

Since the US would still know about jet engines, there's no reason to think they wouldn't develop them. All they'd need is something like this:

Image

That would all but render German gun based flak useless. It would mean having to develop a whole new paradigm in the Luftwaffe to counter such an aircraft. Given the issues the German aircraft industry had with producing a pressurized plane, that alone is going to be an issue that won't be overcome easily

As far as striking Europe and Britain there's always...

Image

That's Iceland's Reykjavik airport today but what's to say that the US doesn't just pave over the island with roads and runways like they did Tinian...

Image

Now, B-17, B-24, B-29's are all effective heavy bombers striking targets in England and on continental Europe.

In the end, GERMANY LOSES!
If you throw enough extra information in that was not in the original premise, one can make anything seem possible. There was no mention of advanced Allied jet fighter technology in the OP. We are talking about 1941. Fighter jets that could travel anything like the distances required to usefully escort B-36 missions did not exist at the time. Nor do they today, barring mid-air refueling. But that is impractical given the lack of useful bases for the tankers to use mid trip. And the J-47 engines that improved the aircraft's overall performance would not be available for use until 1948. Or are we re-writing the entire history of jet propulsion in general?

Per above and some previous comments by others, what if the US had seized closer bases? Then they wouldn't need the B-36 in the first place. More conventional aircraft could easily make the journey.

I would also like to point out that the (much simpler) B-17 was available pre-war, but Boeing had only managed to produce about 150 by November 1941. In fact, the 8th USAAF was not really a force to be reckoned with until 1943. Who knows how long it would take to create a meaningful fleet of B-36.

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Re: What if the Germans take England And the B36 becomes operational

Post by HistoryGeek2019 » 23 Oct 2019 05:56

maltesefalcon wrote:
23 Oct 2019 02:55
There was no mention of advanced Allied jet fighter technology in the OP. We are talking about 1941.
Obviously the Allies aren't going to win the war in 1941. The war will continue, and technology will progress as in the OTL. By the mid to late 1940s, the Allies will have established a no fly zone over Germany.

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T. A. Gardner
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Re: What if the Germans take England And the B36 becomes operational

Post by T. A. Gardner » 23 Oct 2019 05:56

maltesefalcon wrote:
23 Oct 2019 02:55
If you throw enough extra information in that was not in the original premise, one can make anything seem possible. There was no mention of advanced Allied jet fighter technology in the OP. We are talking about 1941. Fighter jets that could travel anything like the distances required to usefully escort B-36 missions did not exist at the time. Nor do they today, barring mid-air refueling. But that is impractical given the lack of useful bases for the tankers to use mid trip. And the J-47 engines that improved the aircraft's overall performance would not be available for use until 1948. Or are we re-writing the entire history of jet propulsion in general?

Per above and some previous comments by others, what if the US had seized closer bases? Then they wouldn't need the B-36 in the first place. More conventional aircraft could easily make the journey.

I would also like to point out that the (much simpler) B-17 was available pre-war, but Boeing had only managed to produce about 150 by November 1941. In fact, the 8th USAAF was not really a force to be reckoned with until 1943. Who knows how long it would take to create a meaningful fleet of B-36.
What I'm pointing out is that the OP is extremely myopic. With or without the B-36 Germany eventually loses. The inclusion or exclusion of a single piece of technology isn't really going to change the situation any.

I pointed out the B-45, or a plane like it, with a pressurized crew compartment-- something the US got to work right while the Germans had serious difficulties doing likewise-- could fly high enough to make German flak impotent. It would also render much or all of their fighter force impotent unless the Germans could fix the pressurization situation or find a work around like a pressure suit.

What this points out is the dynamic of something as massive a change as Germany somehow takes England, isn't going to be solved talking about one plane or ship class, or one change in technology unless that change was truly revolutionary like nuclear weapons. The B-36 really makes ZERO difference here.

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Re: What if the Germans take England And the B36 becomes operational

Post by wm » 23 Oct 2019 08:04

Well, well isn't the Americans' belief that because they are rich and have a few shinning toys everything possible?
How is that war in Vietnam going? In Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria? Do we have (any) results there?

Now we have on the table invasions of neutral countries (and a major war crime): Spain, Turkey, Greece.
And the bombing of neutral countries (another major war crime): Russia and Romania.

Are you aware their populations were highly nationalistic and battle-hardened? The Spaniards fought a long civil war just a few years ago. Turkey has been fighting wars for the last hundred years almost constantly.
Both were two times larger than Vietnam and even more inaccessible, invade them and you will have million-strong Vietcongs there instantly.

Let's say (optimistically) 300,000 American casualties for Spain, the same for Turkey, 100,000 for Greece. 2 million for the invasion of Germany (Japan was estimated up to 4 million).
Did you really believe the Americans would put up with it?

Are we ok already with the nuclear bombing of European cities and European industrial centers? And the hundreds of millions of dead French, British, Poles?
Only to destroy the industrial capacity of London more than 30 of the big ones will be needed. Are we ok with that?

Don't worry about chromium, Stalin will sell it to Hitler by tons. After you attack his Baku he will give him for free.

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