Speculative What-if fight: Poland v. Soviet Union 1937

[gebhk]

Ulster had been a part of Ireland for several centuries ,but that does not give the IRA the right to annex Ulster .

Sorry, what???? The IRA cannot annex Ulster or anything else because it is not a country or state. Therefore whether it has the right, doesn't enter into it. The Irish Republic, on the other hand, does have that right if at some future date the inhabitants of Northern Ireland (including Ulster) decide that they wish to leave the United Kingdom. This is written into UK law, which obliges the Secretary of State to make an Order in Council enabling a border poll “if at any time it appears likely to him that a majority of those voting would express a wish that Northern Ireland should cease to be part of the United Kingdom and form part of a united Ireland”.

Back to the subject of the thread. James, I feel you might be somewhat overstating Polish military might. In 1937 there was only one mechanized brigade and that only from the middle of the year at best. Also, without sorting out the Polish Army's ammo supply issues - particularly artillery ammo, it would not be able to function for long.

On another line, I don't see any sort of Intermarum functioning or even coming into being without Czechoslovakia. But that's just me.

[James A Pratt III]

the 1937 war 2 Soviet Colonels out ice fishing
Colonel 1: Now that we are alone that Georgian cockroach has got Russia in one hell of a mess. His plan to "chastise" the Poles has got us into a war with over half of Europe!
Colonel 2: True! add to this Stalin is "purging the country of traitors". It is creating chaos in the Army. He has gotten rid of some of best Generals and field grade officers. Our mobilization plans are a real mess. As is arms production.
Colonel 1: On the other hand reports from the front say our T-26 and BT tanks are as good or better than those of the enemy. our biggest problem in our Tank units is a shortage of trucks. Their infantry in most cases has to march everywhere on foot and their artillery is horse drawn. A lack of trucks means we can only go so far from a railhead and even if we break through we usually can't exploit it.
Colonel 1: The enemy also uses a different gauge so we have to convert it in order to use it and this is taking longer than planned since we don't have the rail units to do this. We are also short of horses do to the collectivization of agriculture. Food production is also down our soldiers often don't get even 3/4 of what they are supposed to get. It looks like the army will have to start growing its own food as during the Civil War.
Colonel 2: all true! Add to this Russia will have to fight this war with out any help from any other country. Unlike Nicky there is no way any banker with half a brain will loan money to Russia in part because Lenin cancelled all of Russia debts.
Colonel 1: all true I feel this war may end badly for us and Russia.
Colonel 2: So do I.

[wm]

I think the colonels would be more like; the post-military-purge opportunities to move up are things dreams are made of.

[James A Pratt III]

Good point #93
Colonel 1: But on the other hand we could become generals and if Russia wins the war we will heros of in a army than won a war.
Colonel 2: and if Russia loses this war?
Colonel 1: In that case if we survive and can get out of Russia we can end up like a relative of mine. he's driving a taxi in Paris. This seems to be the main form of employment of a lot of former old imperial Army officers even generals.

[James A Pratt III]

In early 1938 there was a meeting of all Axis leaders in Budapest to discuss the conduct of the war. Two German Colonels discuss it:

Colonel 1: How went the meeting?
Colonel 2: Well everyone knows the situation is grave the front is thinly held and we lack reserves. Our Allies are poorly equiped and the Poles and Romanians have taken heavy losses. Our own army also has major equipment and arms shortages and the level of training in more than a few of our units is poor. as a result sending such units into combat has cost us heavy losses. Let us hope the enemy gives us some time to correct some of these problems.
Colonel 1: What do you think of our Allies?
Colenel 2 : Antonesceau is a good strategist. Queen Marie was very charming and quite sensible. Mussolini is politically very smart. The king of Italy has some sense. Horthy is politically sensible. Rydz Smigly is good but not great General. One of the best things to come out of this conference is the setting up of an Axis purchasing commision to regulate purchases of arms and raw materials
Colonel 1: A wise move we can't at this time spend time and money fighting over resources.
Colonel 2: Der Fuerher told our Allies he is cutting back on Naval Construction to increase arms production for the Germany and Allied armies. He hopes to have 5 factories producing Panzer IVs in production as our main battle tank by the end of the year. Four factories for our army and one for our Allies. There is talk of the Italians and possibly the Hungarians producing it under license. Our troops consider it to be better than anything the Russians have.
Colonel 1: Is it true a Polish general tried to bribe our soldiers to get one for his son to use?
Colonel 2: quite true but they didn't sell it!

(more to come)

[James A Pratt III]

Colonel 1: what about our other panzers and those of our Allies?
Colonel 2 : The Pz III is a fairly good tank but the Pz IV is better so it will only be produced in limited numbers mainly because production has just begun and we are desperate for any panzers we can get. The Pz II is a good light tank so we are keeping it in production for the same reason . The Pz I and other tanks armed only with machine guns are pretty useless. We are begining to form our first units with captured enemy tanks they should be heading to the front soon.
Colonel 1: what about anti-tank guns?
Colonel 2: our 37 mm PAK and those of our Allies our good enough for now . They can knock out just about any Russian tank. We have intelligence that heavier Russian tanks are on the way. So we are designing 50 mm and 75mm PAKs to counter them.
Colonel 1: what about trucks and transport?
Colonel 2: truck production will be greatly increased by us and our Allies. We are also planning on buying trucks from other countries including 50,000 from the US.
Colonel 1: That's alot!
Colonel 2: We are fighting a motorized war. We may have to order many more before the war is over. Meanwhile the French have agreed to sell trucks to the Poles and give them some limited aid and loans to buy arms. The Rumanians are trying to also get some help form the French and English. Artillery wise most of Allies artillery is left overs from the last war. It looks like we may have to provide them with modern guns and we can barely produce enough for our own needs. Munitions production is also being increased as well but we are firing it off faster than we can produce ti!

(to be continued)

[James A Pratt III]

Colonel 1: It looks like manpower is going to be a problem for us. Men for both the military and factories and farms. There are plenty of refugees and we have some Russian POWs who we can employ as farm workers ect like we did in the last war. Most likely we will have to get workers from neutral countries. There may be risks some could be spies but this is a risk we will have to take.

Colonel 2: True! also at the conference during breaks there was a room with a buffet and maps of the last war. There were some interesting and lively discussions of the war during and after the conferences. You got to hear about battles from both sides!
Back to business. The Italians have agreed to cut their Naval build programs. Are withdrawing most of their forces from Spain and are cutting their forces in their colonies to bare minimum. In the spring they have said they will send a fleet of 2 battleships, 3 Heavy crusiers and light cruisers, destroyers and submarines to Germany for operations in the Baltic. They have a few submarines on the way for operations in the Artic with more to come. They also plan on sending midget submarines to the Black sea and possibly other small craft. They are also planning to have at least 20 divisions including 2 Armored division sent to East by the end of the year if they can get them equipped and trained.
L'Duce then said he is trying to get loans from Western banks and could everyone tone down their anti-Semetic remarks. This caused some grumbling form some of the other leader especially ours. L'Duce pointed out the situation is very grave and we could lose this war and we need all the help in the way of loans food, oil, raw materials and arms they can get. After a lot more grumbling everyone sort of agreed.

Colonel 1: I must agree with L'Duce on this we could loose this war and if we do god help us!

Colonel 2 The Hungarians have one corps in northern Rumania by the Czech border and their mobile corps is in reserve in Southern Poland. Remember a Hungarian corps only has 3 brigades! The Poles are evacuating their government, archives, ect to Crakow. They are digging defense lines around Warsaw. They think and everyone agrees the Russians will make a major effort this year to capture the city.

[James A Pratt III]

Colonel 1: It was agreed that Germany will send an army to Rumania. The loss of their oil will be a bad blow for us even if we can import it from western countries. It has been also decided after some arguement that a German General will command all axis forces between the Blakc sea and the Czech border. Even though it weakens our line in East Prussia.
Colonel 2: who will it be?
Colonel 1: Von Rundstedt with Von Manstein as his chief of staff
Colonel 2: A wise choice!

[James A Pratt III]

Colonel 1: At a banquet at the end of the conference Der Fuerher refered to the Russians as "subhuman" which put Queen Marie in a rage. She told him her mother was a Russian Grand Duchess and if it was wasn't for German help Lenin and his gang would not have gotten into power in the first place and they would not be fighting this stupid war which isn't going very well. She then said many Russians don't like the Bolsheviks at all and we need to find a way to win them over. There was a moment of silence and Rydz-Smigly said Her majesty has a point we may not be able to defeat the Russians by conventional means alone. The USSR is just the Russian Empire under another name many people in it are not Russian and don't like Russians at all. Then L'Duce said I also agree we need to find ways to undermine the Russians by a campaign of internal rebellion. Horthy then said I also agree. Then der Fuerher said I don't know. Then L'Duce said I suggest we at least study plans for this. and der Fuerher said all right lets study plans for this.
Colonel 2: I wish I could have been there. I would have loved to have seen the look on der fuerher's face.
Colonel 1: plans are going forward to set up a Russian government in exile and a break up of the USSR into separate national states. This could help us win this war.

[James A Pratt III]

3 Japanese General meeting
General 1: based on reports from the war in Europe our needs more and better tanks, more artillery , anti-tank guns, anti =-aircraft guns and trucks.
General 2; Our army will rout those Russian Clods!
General 3: I must point out those Russian Clods appear to be winning. It would be unwise for Japan to enter the war and the Axis makes peace leaving us to fight Russia alone.
General 2: How can you two say such things! The Japanese spirit will over come all!
General 1: the new divisions we are forming need to be properly equipped and trained then transported to Manchuria. We also need to build up large stocks of supplies this will take time.
General 2: You administrative types always come up with reasons why we should not do something!
General 3: we are also in need of more rolling stock in Manchuria for transport it will take time to get it there.
General 1: we also need more horses and there are plans in the works to buy trucks from the US and Canada
General 2: They make cars in Canada? Perhaps we can get some sled dogs from Canada as well they may prove usefull in Siberia.
General 1: Yes the Canadians do make cars and trucks and no doubt we will need many of them. I don't know about the dogs.

[James A Pratt III]

Spring 1938
The Poles pull out of the Brest salient back to a prepared defense line east of Siedce since the Brest salient was near impossible to defend.

The Soviets launch a series of offensives all along the Axis line.

Rumania the Soviets make some gains but a counterattack by the Newly arrived German Panzer Korps halts their advance.

Carpathian mountains Soviets make slight gains due to terrain and a lack of experience in mountain warfare.

South Poland a Soviet offensive reaches the San river north of Przemysl but a g
German counterattack drives them back some.

Warsaw front A soviet offensive reaches Siedce where it is bogged down in heavy street fighting

North Poland Mlawa area the Soviet reach the railroad line South of Mlawa. The Germans and Poles stop any further advance with a counter attack.

East Prussia this attack occured shortly after the other offensives the Soviets are able to break through to the sea cutting off 1 German Infantry division and parts of another. a German Counter attack fails. As for the force that was cut off part was evacuated by sea the rest were interned in Lithuania.

[James A Pratt III]

late Spring
Rumania A soviet offensive along the coast gets a bridgehead across the Dunay river . An axis counterattack halts their advance. Right afterwards a Panzer group is set up containing all German, Italian and Rumanian Armored and motorized forces as a reserve.

Carpathian mountains a small Soviet attack makes slight gains

South Poland A Soviet attack manages to get a bridgehead over the San river north of Przemysl which a German counter attack eliminates. The germans and Poles fall back to outside Przemysl.

Warsaw Siedice the Soviets capture after heavy fighting the Poles fall back to a line between Siedice and Warsaw.

North Poland the Soviets captured Malwa , reach the East Prussian border to the North of the city, and push south but are stopped to the north of Modlin

East Prussia: A minor Soviet attack along the coast results in slight gains and heavy casualties.

[James A Pratt III]

early summer
Rumania: Soviet offensive along the coast crosses the Danube river. The newly formed Panzer group counterattacks and drives the Soviets back some but the Soviets still have a small bridgehead across the river.

South Poland; A Soviet offensive manages to get a bridgehead across the San River North of Przemysl. A German and Polish counterattack manages to destroy it.

Warsaw: Soviet offensive directly from Siedice to Warsaw some gains but at heavy cost

North Poland/East Prussia A soviet offensive north west from Malwa gets a breakthrough and is finally stopped to the South of Elbing. German counterattacks fail to drive the Soviets back.

Comment German forces in the North were weakened do to the need send reserves south to help defend Warsaw and the other fronts. So the Soviets hit a weak part of the German line and broke through. The local German commanders did not do as well as they should have and were fired.

[James A Pratt III]

summer offensive round 2

Rumania: A soviet offensive inland reachs the Buzau river and gets a bridgehead across which the Panzer group eliminates. It does leave the Soviets 40 miles from Polesti. The Soviets launch a major effort to bomb the oil fields. The axis respond by increasing the air defenses around the city which result in massive air battles which inflict heavy casualties on Soviet bombers. The Germans, Italians and Rumanians are greatly helped a early German radar set.

South Poland; Przemysl attacked by the Soviets the Germans and Poles stop the attack after slight gains and heavy losses to the Soviets

Warsaw: The Soviets launch offensive North and South of Warsaw both reach the Vistula river before they are halted.

East Prussia A Soviet offensive manages to reach the Baltic just east of Elbing. German counterattacks fail to drive the Soviets back and Knoigsberg is cut off.

[James A Pratt III]

Summer offensives round 3
Rumania Soviet offensive along the coast some gains. Panzer group counter attack stop 50 miles north of Constanta

South Poland; Soviet offensive south of Przemysl reaches the San River west of the city leaving a bulge in the line. German and Polish forces from the North and German and Hungarian forces from the South cut the bulge off and surround and capture the Soviet troops still in it.

Warsaw:Soviets launch frontal attack against Warsaw some gains for heavy losses.

East Prussia; Soviet offensive against the Koingsberg pocket. Slight gains for heavy casualties. The evacuation of as many soldiers and civilians as possible is ordered.

Carpathian front: Soviets launch a small scale offensive. slight gains do to the rough terrain.