Is it possible for Germany to knock out France during WWI only to subsequently lose WWI to Russia, Britain, & the US?

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Re: Is it possible for Germany to knock out France during WWI only to subsequently lose WWI to Russia, Britain, & the US

#16

Post by Futurist » 29 Dec 2019, 04:48

History Learner wrote:
06 Dec 2019, 11:26
No, France was too vital for the war effort of the UK and Russia.
Could the eventual entry of the US into the war have compensated for France's loss? Or would Britain and/or Russia have already caved to Germany by then?

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Re: Is it possible for Germany to knock out France during WWI only to subsequently lose WWI to Russia, Britain, & the US

#17

Post by Futurist » 29 Dec 2019, 04:50

Terry Duncan wrote:
06 Dec 2019, 12:09
The Germans GGS concluded that it would be possible to come to a negotiated peace with Russia in a war where France was knocked out, hence the decision to attack France as hard as possible as soon as the war began. However, they also concluded they had no way to force Britain to make peace or to knock her out of a war if Britain decided to continue the war. They were strong enough to defeat one other Great Power but not strong enough to defeat two that refused to come to terms, and no way to knock out a fully mobilised Great Britain, yet alone the US too.
It's worth noting that it was also much harder to quickly knock Russia out of the war than to quickly knock France out of the war for logistical reasons. After all, Paris is closer to the German border than both Petrograd and Moscow are. Of course, the Germans did fail to quickly knock out France in 1914, but my point here is that their odds of doing this with Russia in 1914 would have been even lower for logistical reasons.

As for the US, please keep in mind that it wouldn't immediately enter WWI after France's fall in this scenario. Rather, it could only do so at some later point in time--such as if Germany will wage USW against US ships.


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Re: Is it possible for Germany to knock out France during WWI only to subsequently lose WWI to Russia, Britain, & the US

#18

Post by History Learner » 05 Jan 2020, 04:16

Futurist wrote:
29 Dec 2019, 04:48
History Learner wrote:
06 Dec 2019, 11:26
No, France was too vital for the war effort of the UK and Russia.
Could the eventual entry of the US into the war have compensated for France's loss? Or would Britain and/or Russia have already caved to Germany by then?
Caved, the loss of France would've resulted in the loss of Belgium and thus meant that London itself would untenable as a position; the Brits were very dependent on the Channel then to keep Southeast England supplied as the railways lacked the capacity. Russia, meanwhile, could not hold up without Anglo-French aid.

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Re: Is it possible for Germany to knock out France during WWI only to subsequently lose WWI to Russia, Britain, & the US

#19

Post by Futurist » 05 Jan 2020, 06:01

History Learner wrote:
05 Jan 2020, 04:16
Futurist wrote:
29 Dec 2019, 04:48
History Learner wrote:
06 Dec 2019, 11:26
No, France was too vital for the war effort of the UK and Russia.
Could the eventual entry of the US into the war have compensated for France's loss? Or would Britain and/or Russia have already caved to Germany by then?
Caved, the loss of France would've resulted in the loss of Belgium and thus meant that London itself would untenable as a position; the Brits were very dependent on the Channel then to keep Southeast England supplied as the railways lacked the capacity. Russia, meanwhile, could not hold up without Anglo-French aid.
I thought that the British Navy back then was superior to the German Navy, no?

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Re: Is it possible for Germany to knock out France during WWI only to subsequently lose WWI to Russia, Britain, & the US

#20

Post by History Learner » 07 Jan 2020, 00:57

Futurist wrote:
05 Jan 2020, 06:01
History Learner wrote:
05 Jan 2020, 04:16
Futurist wrote:
29 Dec 2019, 04:48
History Learner wrote:
06 Dec 2019, 11:26
No, France was too vital for the war effort of the UK and Russia.
Could the eventual entry of the US into the war have compensated for France's loss? Or would Britain and/or Russia have already caved to Germany by then?
Caved, the loss of France would've resulted in the loss of Belgium and thus meant that London itself would untenable as a position; the Brits were very dependent on the Channel then to keep Southeast England supplied as the railways lacked the capacity. Russia, meanwhile, could not hold up without Anglo-French aid.
I thought that the British Navy back then was superior to the German Navy, no?
Yes, but the strategy here doesn't require a fleet confrontation; coastal artillery, torpedo boats, U-Boats and planes are sufficient.

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Re: Is it possible for Germany to knock out France during WWI only to subsequently lose WWI to Russia, Britain, & the US

#21

Post by Futurist » 07 Jan 2020, 00:59

History Learner wrote:
07 Jan 2020, 00:57
Futurist wrote:
05 Jan 2020, 06:01
History Learner wrote:
05 Jan 2020, 04:16
Futurist wrote:
29 Dec 2019, 04:48
History Learner wrote:
06 Dec 2019, 11:26
No, France was too vital for the war effort of the UK and Russia.
Could the eventual entry of the US into the war have compensated for France's loss? Or would Britain and/or Russia have already caved to Germany by then?
Caved, the loss of France would've resulted in the loss of Belgium and thus meant that London itself would untenable as a position; the Brits were very dependent on the Channel then to keep Southeast England supplied as the railways lacked the capacity. Russia, meanwhile, could not hold up without Anglo-French aid.
I thought that the British Navy back then was superior to the German Navy, no?
Yes, but the strategy here doesn't require a fleet confrontation; coastal artillery, torpedo boats, U-Boats and planes are sufficient.
All of that would be enough to shut down the British Channel? If so, could Britain move its ships and trade through the North Sea instead (and then use its railroads to deliver goods from Scotland to England)?

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Re: Is it possible for Germany to knock out France during WWI only to subsequently lose WWI to Russia, Britain, & the US

#22

Post by History Learner » 07 Jan 2020, 01:03

Futurist wrote:
07 Jan 2020, 00:59
All of that would be enough to shut down the British Channel? If so, could Britain move its ships and trade through the North Sea instead (and then use its railroads to deliver goods from Scotland to England)?
Pretty much, yeah, the existing railway network isn't sufficient and the North Sea route must still use Channel approaches to use the Thames that put them in range of Flanders.
Submarine warfare that threatened the London approaches increased the pressure, and efforts to divert shipping to west coast ports were only partially successful. London was a lighterage port and could not be converted easily to massive rail use. Attempts to supersede a city infrastructure designed to live off of riverside supply lines with inland shipments by rail were likely to throw distribution networks into chaos. One effort to divert cargoes to Plymouth underscored the futility of feeding the entire London basin via rail deliveries from other ports. Out of 27,000 tons off-loaded, only 7,000 made their way to the capital, and there were railroad backups while they did so. It took approximately three weeks to unload the ships in Plymouth, whereas the job would have been done in seven in London.[15]

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Re: Is it possible for Germany to knock out France during WWI only to subsequently lose WWI to Russia, Britain, & the US

#23

Post by Futurist » 07 Jan 2020, 01:20

Very interesting; thanks! :)

BTW, mind if I will ask you a couple of additional WWI alternate history questions?

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Re: Is it possible for Germany to knock out France during WWI only to subsequently lose WWI to Russia, Britain, & the US

#24

Post by History Learner » 07 Jan 2020, 01:20

Futurist wrote:
07 Jan 2020, 01:20
Very interesting; thanks! :)

BTW, mind if I will ask you a couple of additional WWI alternate history questions?
Sure, are they related to this?

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Re: Is it possible for Germany to knock out France during WWI only to subsequently lose WWI to Russia, Britain, & the US

#25

Post by Futurist » 07 Jan 2020, 01:21

History Learner wrote:
07 Jan 2020, 01:20
Futurist wrote:
07 Jan 2020, 01:20
Very interesting; thanks! :)

BTW, mind if I will ask you a couple of additional WWI alternate history questions?
Sure, are they related to this?
Not to this topic specifically.

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Re: Is it possible for Germany to knock out France during WWI only to subsequently lose WWI to Russia, Britain, & the US

#26

Post by History Learner » 07 Jan 2020, 01:27

Futurist wrote:
07 Jan 2020, 01:21
History Learner wrote:
07 Jan 2020, 01:20
Futurist wrote:
07 Jan 2020, 01:20
Very interesting; thanks! :)

BTW, mind if I will ask you a couple of additional WWI alternate history questions?
Sure, are they related to this?
Not to this topic specifically.
Yeah go ahead, or you can make a new thread; I'll respond either way.

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Re: Is it possible for Germany to knock out France during WWI only to subsequently lose WWI to Russia, Britain, & the US

#27

Post by Futurist » 07 Jan 2020, 01:32

Here it is:

viewtopic.php?f=11&t=246546

I might make more AH threads later but I don't want to cram the forum with a lot of new threads at once.

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Re: Is it possible for Germany to knock out France during WWI only to subsequently lose WWI to Russia, Britain, & the US

#28

Post by Futurist » 07 Jan 2020, 01:34

This thread of mine might also be of interest to you, HL:

viewtopic.php?f=58&p=2244237#p2244237

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