Allies end the war by Christmas 1944

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Carl Schwamberger
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Re: Allies end the war by Christmas 1944

Post by Carl Schwamberger » 17 Jan 2020 02:58

Getting back to the OP...
Cult Icon wrote:
23 Dec 2019 15:16
Say the Allies land the same way they did on June 6th.

Certain efforts, such as Hürtgenwald would have to be avoided.

What strategic/operational decisions would it take to win the war by Christmas?
...I can't see any. A starting point of 6th June is just to late. Precisely why was outlined in the second post of this thread, and reinforced in several posts on the first page. Theres a lot of possibilities with PoD of 1943, 1942, 1941.

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Re: Allies end the war by Christmas 1944

Post by Cult Icon » 20 Jan 2020 04:25

Cult Icon wrote:
08 Jan 2020 23:12
Historically, the Vosges position defenses were completed on Sept 16- 24 by German engineers of 19th Army and their labor. They also cross the Moselle and blew up all the bridges by Sep 22. With 19th and 1st Armies captured, 6th Army Group could cross, occupy the positions in early-mid Sept and threaten the Belfort gap, Saverne gaps, and Strasbourg against weaker opposition than historically. The battle for the Colmar pocket, west of the Rhine, can initiate months ahead of time- uninterrupted by a lengthy Vosges mountain campaign and NORDWIND.
To continue on this, Strasbourg would probably be taken in a similar fashion by 2.DB, with the main battle being the reduction of the Colmar pocket and the seizing of the Rhine bridges. A few weeks for planning and the accumulation of supplies and the attack on the pocket can begin. Historically, there was a supply freeze in October 1944 so it would be some time, in which the Germans would use to perform counterattacks towards the double gaps.

Historically, the battle of the Colmar pocket in 1945 began, featuring a battleworn 6AG (from the Vosges campaign, weakening to replenish 3rd Army, and then containing the Nordwind and the Slyvester attacks) with 1st French Army having seen a radical restructuring and general logistics issues. However, the pocket was still cleared in 3 weeks. The 19th Army at that time was very ragtag- with poorly trained troops, weak artillery supply, and small armored support however, the terrain it occupied was easily defensible.

An Alternate Colmar battle would have different opponents- a fresher 6AG and better German opposition in the reinforcements that fought, historically, in the Vosges. The Germans would pour more resources in keeping the pocket viable in Oct-Nov 1944 than in Feb-March 1945. The battle could be a month long affair.

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Re: Allies end the war by Christmas 1944

Post by Aida1 » 20 Jan 2020 11:38

One has to be very stubborn to continue with a scenario that is completely unrealistic. More easy to work one out where German forces do better .

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Re: Allies end the war by Christmas 1944

Post by Cult Icon » 29 Jan 2020 15:00

Carl Schwamberger wrote:
17 Jan 2020 02:58

...I can't see any. A starting point of 6th June is just to late. Precisely why was outlined in the second post of this thread, and reinforced in several posts on the first page. Theres a lot of possibilities with PoD of 1943, 1942, 1941.
The second post of the thread does not prove that at all. There were many decisions that could have been reversed starting from June. eg. An August decision that comes to mind is the decision to take Brest's 75 strongpoints instead of using the forces for exploitation.

Perhaps the Christmas deadline could not be met but certainly the war could have been truncated by several months, given that we now have knowledge of the right moves.

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Re: Allies end the war by Christmas 1944

Post by Aida1 » 29 Jan 2020 22:18

Cult Icon wrote:
29 Jan 2020 15:00
Carl Schwamberger wrote:
17 Jan 2020 02:58

...I can't see any. A starting point of 6th June is just to late. Precisely why was outlined in the second post of this thread, and reinforced in several posts on the first page. Theres a lot of possibilities with PoD of 1943, 1942, 1941.
The second post of the thread does not prove that at all. There were many decisions that could have been reversed starting from June. eg. An August decision that comes to mind is the decision to take Brest's 75 strongpoints instead of using the forces for exploitation.

Perhaps the Christmas deadline could not be met but certainly the war could have been truncated by several months, given that we now have knowledge of the right moves.
You cannot. Not realistic. Much easier to imagine a scenario where the germans do better after D Day. The gemans too can do things differently.

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Re: Allies end the war by Christmas 1944

Post by Carl Schwamberger » 29 Jan 2020 22:20

Cult Icon wrote:
29 Jan 2020 15:00
Carl Schwamberger wrote:
17 Jan 2020 02:58

...I can't see any. A starting point of 6th June is just to late. Precisely why was outlined in the second post of this thread, and reinforced in several posts on the first page. Theres a lot of possibilities with PoD of 1943, 1942, 1941.
The second post of the thread does not prove that at all. There were many decisions that could have been reversed starting from June. eg. An August decision that comes to mind is the decision to take Brest's 75 strongpoints instead of using the forces for exploitation.
Nothing proposed provides the necessary number of Allied combat forces nor the logistics to support them that summer & autum. Allied supply transport could not cope with supporting forty Allied ground combat divisions beyond the Seine or Paris in early September. How much farther is it to Berlin, or just to occupy the Ruhr?
Perhaps the Christmas deadline could not be met but certainly the war could have been truncated by several months, given that we now have knowledge of the right moves.
Could be, but moving goal posts does not alter the original question.

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Re: Allies end the war by Christmas 1944

Post by Carl Schwamberger » 29 Jan 2020 22:34

Aida1 wrote:
29 Jan 2020 22:18

You cannot. Not realistic. Much easier to imagine a scenario where the germans do better after D Day. The gemans too can do things differently.
Or worse. A extreme case of enabling the Allies would be severe overconfidence with the situation in the West in June. Everything not in France is sent east to deal with the Red Army. When the breakout comes in August there is nothing left in the Reich to rebuild in the West. No battle of Arras, defense of Nancy or Metz, no Volks grenadiers in the West Wall. Just remnants, admin units & some Volks Sturm.

That does not solve the Allied supply transport problem, but it does take Autum resistance out of the equation.

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Re: Allies end the war by Christmas 1944

Post by Cult Icon » 29 Jan 2020 23:29

Carl Schwamberger wrote:
29 Jan 2020 22:34
Or worse. A extreme case of enabling the Allies would be severe overconfidence with the situation in the West in June. Everything not in France is sent east to deal with the Red Army. When the breakout comes in August there is nothing left in the Reich to rebuild in the West. No battle of Arras, defense of Nancy or Metz, no Volks grenadiers in the West Wall. Just remnants, admin units & some Volks Sturm.

That does not solve the Allied supply transport problem, but it does take Autum resistance out of the equation.
You realize that you, a host, are talking to a sockpuppet account??! He's been banned many times before. His well worn trolling technique is to always take the extremely pro-German position.
Last edited by Cult Icon on 30 Jan 2020 00:27, edited 5 times in total.

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Re: Allies end the war by Christmas 1944

Post by Cult Icon » 29 Jan 2020 23:37

Carl Schwamberger wrote:
29 Jan 2020 22:20

Nothing proposed provides the necessary number of Allied combat forces nor the logistics to support them that summer & autum. Allied supply transport could not cope with supporting forty Allied ground combat divisions beyond the Seine or Paris in early September. How much farther is it to Berlin, or just to occupy the Ruhr?
What is the "necessary" number in your view? How many can be supported in Nov, Dec ?

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Re: Allies end the war by Christmas 1944

Post by Cult Icon » 30 Jan 2020 02:32

+ some of the destruction of the french railway system by retreating German forces (which would no longer exist) could be prevented if the earlier victories were complete and occurring many weeks earlier. With enough of the French railway system online, (historically trucks took over as the sabotage was complete), this would buy even more time. Historically, at the end of August/beginning of Sept when 12th Army Group was given a supply freeze for fuel with 21st Army Group allocated the priority. This could potentially extend offensive operations among affected armies for weeks more, perhaps into October.

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Re: Allies end the war by Christmas 1944

Post by Terry Duncan » 30 Jan 2020 12:41

Cult Icon wrote:
29 Jan 2020 23:29
Carl Schwamberger wrote:
29 Jan 2020 22:34
Or worse. A extreme case of enabling the Allies would be severe overconfidence with the situation in the West in June. Everything not in France is sent east to deal with the Red Army. When the breakout comes in August there is nothing left in the Reich to rebuild in the West. No battle of Arras, defense of Nancy or Metz, no Volks grenadiers in the West Wall. Just remnants, admin units & some Volks Sturm.

That does not solve the Allied supply transport problem, but it does take Autum resistance out of the equation.
You realize that you, a host, are talking to a sockpuppet account??! He's been banned many times before. His well worn trolling technique is to always take the extremely pro-German position.
This is a very interesting charge, can you prove it? It may well be a sockpuppet account but so far no proof for this can be found and it has been checked. Suspicion alone is not reasonable cause to ban someone.

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Re: Allies end the war by Christmas 1944

Post by Michael Kenny » 30 Jan 2020 13:03

Terry Duncan wrote:
30 Jan 2020 12:41

This is a very interesting charge, can you prove it? It may well be a sockpuppet account but so far no proof for this can be found and it has been checked. Suspicion alone is not reasonable cause to ban someone.
He appears to be behaving himself this time around but there is not the slightest doubt this is the latest incarnation of Tiger Ivan/General G et al. Personally I do not think he should be banned and certainly he is far better value (in content) than a lot of prolific newcomers.

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Re: Allies end the war by Christmas 1944

Post by Aida1 » 30 Jan 2020 16:36

Carl Schwamberger wrote:
29 Jan 2020 22:34
Aida1 wrote:
29 Jan 2020 22:18

You cannot. Not realistic. Much easier to imagine a scenario where the germans do better after D Day. The gemans too can do things differently.
Or worse. A extreme case of enabling the Allies would be severe overconfidence with the situation in the West in June. Everything not in France is sent east to deal with the Red Army. When the breakout comes in August there is nothing left in the Reich to rebuild in the West. No battle of Arras, defense of Nancy or Metz, no Volks grenadiers in the West Wall. Just remnants, admin units & some Volks Sturm.

That does not solve the Allied supply transport problem, but it does take Autum resistance out of the equation.
Theoretically yes but not realistic as OB West was certainly not suffering from overconfidence given the difficult situation. It was rather quickly coming to the conclusion that one had at least to retreat outside the range of allied naval guns. And later that a retreat further back in France was needed before an allied breakout. So a more realistic scenario is where Hitler would allow some more liberty of movement.

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Re: Allies end the war by Christmas 1944

Post by Tom from Cornwall » 31 Jan 2020 19:52

Cult Icon wrote:
30 Jan 2020 02:32
Historically, at the end of August/beginning of Sept when 12th Army Group was given a supply freeze for fuel with 21st Army Group allocated the priority.
Lordy, not that old canard yet again. 8O

Can you tell us all just what the 12th Army Group "supply freeze for fuel" consisted of? Oh yeah, the internal priority within 12th Army Group was adjusted at end of August/beginning of Sept!

No priority was given to 21 Army Group at that point, although British logistic resources that had been supporting 12th Army Group and the Civil Affairs effort to supply food and fuel to Paris at this time were withdrawn to support 21 Army Group's thrust north-eastwards.

Regards

Tom

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Re: Allies end the war by Christmas 1944

Post by Richard Anderson » 31 Jan 2020 20:23

If you're listening to old ducks quacking you have to expect old canards.
"Is all this pretentious pseudo intellectual citing of sources REALLY necessary? It gets in the way of a good, spirited debate, destroys the cadence." POD, 6 October 2018

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