Allies end the war by Christmas 1944

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Richard Anderson
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Re: Allies end the war by Christmas 1944

Post by Richard Anderson » 01 Feb 2020 06:12

BTW, just to be clear, I did not mean Cult Icon was an old duck or was quacking, but he certainly seems to have been reading some of the quacking of some old ducks. :lol:

As Tom points out, there was never a "supply freeze for fuel" and the supply allocation priority was not as cut and dried as 21st Army Group got more than 12th Army Group. Underlying much of the problems experienced by the U.S. Army in late-August that extended into November were decisions made by planners in Washington, D.C.
"Is all this pretentious pseudo intellectual citing of sources REALLY necessary? It gets in the way of a good, spirited debate, destroys the cadence." POD, 6 October 2018

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Re: Allies end the war by Christmas 1944

Post by daveshoup2MD » 10 Feb 2020 04:39

Cult Icon wrote:
23 Dec 2019 15:16
Say the Allies land the same way they did on June 6th.

Certain efforts, such as Hürtgenwald would have to be avoided.

What strategic/operational decisions would it take to win the war by Christmas?
Define "win the war"...

Unconditional surrender of the German government?

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Re: Allies end the war by Christmas 1944

Post by Carl Schwamberger » 10 Feb 2020 15:50

daveshoup2MD wrote:
10 Feb 2020 04:39
...


Define "win the war"...

Unconditional surrender of the German government?
I took a quick look at alternative 'effective' ends. One was a successful disruption occupation of the western German industrial plant. ie: Allied soldiers in the Ruhr. Complete disruption/loss of the Rhine River corridor with its transportation and electrical transmission. While it would be severely crippling were something like that to occur in September or October 1944 it looks to be like German resistance would stagger on into the winter of 1945. Maybe beyond? I cant see instant collapse & a Anglo US romp across Germany October-December.

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Re: Allies end the war by Christmas 1944

Post by daveshoup2MD » 11 Feb 2020 06:34

That's the thing ... absent any detail as to what the supposed end requirements are, it's so open-ended you could come back with anything. VALKYRIE succeeds, even.

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Re: Allies end the war by Christmas 1944

Post by History Learner » 03 Mar 2020 20:01

12th SS Panzer has the fuel it needs to move during Operation Luttich, allowing the Allies to seal the Falaise Gap and thus pocket all of the Germans. They then move into Belgium a week early, cut off the Beveland Peninsula before the Germans can move in and thus have Antwerp open by Mid-September instead of November as done historically. Market Garden is thereafter a success, given the lack of logistical constraints, while Patton is clearing the left bank of the Rhine by the start of October. Allies cross said river in November of 1944 and are approaching the Elbe come Christmas time.

Tom from Cornwall
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Re: Allies end the war by Christmas 1944

Post by Tom from Cornwall » 03 Mar 2020 20:54

Hi,

You do realise the Scheldt estuary was mined though and that cutting the Beveland Peninsula would have trapped @ 50,000 German troops in the highly defensible ground north and south of the Scheldt estuary?

Regards

Tom

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Re: Allies end the war by Christmas 1944

Post by Kingfish » 04 Mar 2020 00:25

History Learner wrote:
03 Mar 2020 20:01
while Patton is clearing the left bank of the Rhine by the start of October. Allies cross said river in November of 1944 and are approaching the Elbe come Christmas time.
600km in one month? In Winter?
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Re: Allies end the war by Christmas 1944

Post by History Learner » 10 Mar 2020 23:37

Kingfish wrote:
04 Mar 2020 00:25
History Learner wrote:
03 Mar 2020 20:01
while Patton is clearing the left bank of the Rhine by the start of October. Allies cross said river in November of 1944 and are approaching the Elbe come Christmas time.
600km in one month? In Winter?
Dever's 6th Army in November literally had no one opposite them on the right bank of the Rhine; if no one escapes the Falaise Gap and the logistics line of Antwerp is open there is literally nothing to stop the Anglo-American advance. Third Army, for example, was able to advance like 200 km in one months before smashing its head into Metz.

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Re: Allies end the war by Christmas 1944

Post by Richard Anderson » 11 Mar 2020 00:18

History Learner wrote:
10 Mar 2020 23:37
Dever's 6th Army in November literally had no one opposite them on the right bank of the Rhine
Um, Dever's 6th Army Group was not on the Rhine in November...all of the opposition was west of the Rhine. The line ran from the Belfort Gap to west of Belfort, which the LXXXV. AK defended with three divisions, to Le Thillot and Gerardmer, defended by the IV. LFK with two divisions, and then north to Sarrebourg, which the LXIV. AK defended with three divisions.
if no one escapes the Falaise Gap and the logistics line of Antwerp is open there is literally nothing to stop the Anglo-American advance. Third Army, for example, was able to advance like 200 km in one months before smashing its head into Metz.
Actually, there was quite a bit to stop the advance...none of the forces opposing MARKET-GARDEN for example escaped the Falaise Gap, nor did those that helped insure Antwerp would not open until late November. Same for Patton's early opposition in Lorraine, which was principally 3. Panzergrenadier from Italy and the newly organized Panzer Brigaden and Volksgrenadier.
"Is all this pretentious pseudo intellectual citing of sources REALLY necessary? It gets in the way of a good, spirited debate, destroys the cadence." POD, 6 October 2018

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Re: Allies end the war by Christmas 1944

Post by Sheldrake » 11 Mar 2020 12:00

Here is a scenario as likely as any other counter factual..... ;)

No invasion of North Africa in 1942. An invasion of France in 1943 Op Sledgehammer, is launches with three divisions on the cotentin peninsular, building up to around fifteen divisions. This is cordoned off like Anzio and, after a series of disasterous gales, the beachhead is abandoned, a la Gallipoli,k with the loss of much of Britain's Home army.

A downhearted Rooseveldt dies before the 1944 election which is won on a republican Pacific first ticket. Churchill has a stroke that leaves him speechless

The US air raid on Kassel does not accidentally hit the Fiesler works avoiding subsequent delays to V1 production. The V1 offensive starts early 1944 hitting London with a ton of HE every five minutes and a worn down Britain sues for an armistice by June 1944.

After the Germans reinforced by Fresh formations from the West hold the Soviet summer offensive, Stalin makes his peace with Hitler on the 1939 Molotov/ Ribbentrop line. War over by Christmas 1944. The Third Reich lasts for a thousand years....

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Re: Allies end the war by Christmas 1944

Post by Carl Schwamberger » 11 Mar 2020 13:37

Cute :)

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Re: Allies end the war by Christmas 1944

Post by History Learner » 11 Mar 2020 16:12

Richard Anderson wrote:
11 Mar 2020 00:18
Um, Dever's 6th Army Group was not on the Rhine in November...all of the opposition was west of the Rhine. The line ran from the Belfort Gap to west of Belfort, which the LXXXV. AK defended with three divisions, to Le Thillot and Gerardmer, defended by the IV. LFK with two divisions, and then north to Sarrebourg, which the LXIV. AK defended with three divisions.
6th Army Group had made it's way through the Vosges by November, mauling the 19th German Army in the process and having reached the Rhine at several places; 7th Army had few, if any, Germans in front of them and plans were drawn up to conduct a crossing at Rasttat. Ike cancelled that, over strenuous objections from Devers, in favor of deploying 7th Army to support Patton. Had 7th Army been allowed to go ahead, they could've crossed the river unmolested, turned North, and forced the Germans to concede the Western bank of the Rhine by virtue of hitting their exposed flank.
Actually, there was quite a bit to stop the advance...none of the forces opposing MARKET-GARDEN for example escaped the Falaise Gap, nor did those that helped insure Antwerp would not open until late November. Same for Patton's early opposition in Lorraine, which was principally 3. Panzergrenadier from Italy and the newly organized Panzer Brigaden and Volksgrenadier.
The SS Panzer Divisions that crippled Market-Garden did, in fact, escape the Falaise Gap and a quicker advance out of France could've allowed the Anglo-Canadians to seal off the Beveland Peninsula before the German 15th Army could take it's position there; historically, the Canadians were less than a day away but short of fuel to do so.

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Re: Allies end the war by Christmas 1944

Post by Richard Anderson » 11 Mar 2020 17:08

History Learner wrote:
11 Mar 2020 16:12
6th Army Group had made it's way through the Vosges by November, mauling the 19th German Army in the process and having reached the Rhine at several places; 7th Army had few, if any, Germans in front of them and plans were drawn up to conduct a crossing at Rasttat. Ike cancelled that, over strenuous objections from Devers, in favor of deploying 7th Army to support Patton. Had 7th Army been allowed to go ahead, they could've crossed the river unmolested, turned North, and forced the Germans to concede the Western bank of the Rhine by virtue of hitting their exposed flank.
Um, can you tell me where those several places the 6th Army Group reached the Rhine by November were? Perhaps on these maps?

http://www.ibiblio.org/hyperwar/USA/USA ... era-25.jpg
http://www.ibiblio.org/hyperwar/USA/USA ... era-24.jpg

You are referring to the situation at the end of November, thus "by December", not "by November." The II French Corps reached the Rhine between Basel and Mulhouse on 19 November. The XV Corps reached the Rhine near Hagenau on 23 November and the VI Corps reached it at Strasbourg on 24 November. The meeting between Eisenhower, Bradley, and Devers was on the evening of 24 November at the Heritage Hotel in Vittel.

Could the Seventh Army executed an assault crossing of the Rhine at Rastatt? Possibly, but probably not before the end of the month. Such a move would have likely forced Hitler's hand and resulted in a withdrawal of 19. Armee from the Colmar Pocket as well as a commitment of reserves from the forces assembled for WACHT AM RHINE, so possibly aborting the Battle of the Bulge. It would have resulted in a very different war ending, but it would have been unlikely to have ended the war by Christmas.
The SS Panzer Divisions that crippled Market-Garden did, in fact, escape the Falaise Gap and a quicker advance out of France could've allowed the Anglo-Canadians to seal off the Beveland Peninsula before the German 15th Army could take it's position there; historically, the Canadians were less than a day away but short of fuel to do so.
The "SS Panzer Divisions" did not cripple MARKET-GARDEN, piss-poor planning did. The 9. and 10. SS-Panzerdivision were never in the Falaise Pocket, they participated in the attacks to open it. They were both later badly mauled in the Mons Pocket.

Nor was the Allied advance out of France particularly slow, especially not that by the 21st Army Group.nor were any delays related especially to resistance from forces that escaped the Falaise and Mons pockets. To facilitate the advance of the thin allied spearheads, much of the allied forces were grounded to provide additional transport...including much of First Canadian Army, which was tasked with Capturing the Channel ports initially, not the Beveland Peninsula.
"Is all this pretentious pseudo intellectual citing of sources REALLY necessary? It gets in the way of a good, spirited debate, destroys the cadence." POD, 6 October 2018

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Re: Allies end the war by Christmas 1944

Post by Tom from Cornwall » 11 Mar 2020 20:47

History Learner wrote:
11 Mar 2020 16:12
a quicker advance out of France could've allowed the Anglo-Canadians to seal off the Beveland Peninsula before the German 15th Army could take it's position there; historically, the Canadians were less than a day away but short of fuel to do so.
Did you read my post above?
You do realise the Scheldt estuary was mined though and that cutting the Beveland Peninsula would have trapped @ 50,000 German troops in the highly defensible ground north and south of the Scheldt estuary?
The Canadians were not "a day away" - as Rich mentions they were busy opening up the Channel Ports and taking out the coastal guns of the Pas de Calais.

How much fuel were they (or indeed the British 11th Armd Div who I think you actually mean) "short of"?

It might be worth checking the German divisions that were in position around the Scheldt estuary on say 4/5 Sep 44 and noting how many there were there already.

Regards

Tom

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Re: Allies end the war by Christmas 1944

Post by Kingfish » 12 Mar 2020 16:53

History Learner wrote:
10 Mar 2020 23:37
Dever's 6th Army in November literally had no one opposite them on the right bank of the Rhine; if no one escapes the Falaise Gap and the logistics line of Antwerp is open there is literally nothing to stop the Anglo-American advance.
What does the Falaise pocket or Antwerp have anything to do with 6th AG?
Third Army, for example, was able to advance like 200 km in one months before smashing its head into Metz.
Yeah, in the summer and with their supply lines almost half the distance.
Distance from the Normandy beaches to Metz is ~800km. Marseilles (the supply hub for 6th AG) to the Elbe at Magdeburg - 1400 km.
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