Hungary remains neutral in World War II

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Futurist
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Hungary remains neutral in World War II

Post by Futurist » 03 Jan 2020 02:07

What if, for whatever unlikely reason, Hungary would have decided to remain neutral in World War II? For instance, what if Hungarian Regent Miklos Horthy decides that while Nazi Germany was extremely helpful to Hungary in helping it recover various lost Hungarian territories, Hungary should nevertheless be unwilling to shed its own blood for the Nazi cause? For the record, I'm thinking of such a Hungarian decision being made shortly before the start of Operation Barbarossa.

Anyway, what happens afterwards? Does Nazi Germany (possibly together with Romania) proceed to occupy Hungary and to undo the territorial gains that Hungary made with its help in 1938-1941? How does this affect Operation Barbarossa--which was about to start very soon?

I'm presuming that, in addition to the Jews in the Hungarian countryside, almost all of the Jews in Budapest likewise get exterminated by the Nazis in this scenario if the Nazis are going to be occupying Hungary starting from 1941 in this scenario. So, that's certainly an extremely massive downside of this scenario.

That said, though, I was wondering if, like post-World War II Poland in real life, post-World War II Hungary is going to be able to make any territorial gains at Germany's/Austria's expense as compensation for the much longer Nazi German occupation of Hungary in this scenario. After all, Poland got the Recovered Territories in exchange for the Kresy, Czechoslovakia got the Sudetenland back in exchange for Subcarpathian Ruthenia, and Romania got Transylvania back in exchange for Bessarabia and northern Bukovina. So, might Hungary get a little territorial present from the Soviet Union after the end of World War II in this scenario as a part of the package for installing Communist rule in Hungary in this scenario?

Any thoughts on all of this?

Carl Schwamberger
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Re: Hungary remains neutral in World War II

Post by Carl Schwamberger » 13 Feb 2020 15:51

Technically Bulgaria was neutral, but the Red Army rolled in anyway. I'd expect the same with Hungary.

HistoryGeek2019
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Re: Hungary remains neutral in World War II

Post by HistoryGeek2019 » 13 Feb 2020 19:21

Bulgaria signed the Tripartite Pact in 1941, allowed German troops to pass through its territory to invade Greece and Yugoslavia, took territory from Greece and Yugoslavia, battled anti-German partisans, skirmished with the Soviet Black Sea Fleet, and declared war on the UK and USA.

The question for OP is whether Hungary is truly neutral or only "Bulgarian" neutral. Does Hungary allow German troops to pass through its borders? If not, then Germany can't invade Greece or station troops in Romania, and has a harder time invading Yugoslavia.

TheMarcksPlan
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Re: Hungary remains neutral in World War II

Post by TheMarcksPlan » 13 Feb 2020 20:03

If Hungary is going to take a stance like this then it's going to show in their 1940 decision whether to allow German troops to cross their territory into Romania, when Germany gave its security guarantee. So IMO things get sorted out - Hungary is invaded - during 1940.

An occupied Hungary would probably have contributed more to the German war effort via industry and better exploitation of oil resources (Hungary refused German requests to direct investment in oilfields that Hungary gained from Slovakia). Romania would have come deeper into the German fold, almost certainly contributing more oil to Germany and selling less to Wallies pre-Barbarossa - certainly that would have been the deal offered by Hitler.

Futurist
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Re: Hungary remains neutral in World War II

Post by Futurist » 04 Mar 2020 00:37

HistoryGeek2019 wrote:
13 Feb 2020 19:21
Bulgaria signed the Tripartite Pact in 1941, allowed German troops to pass through its territory to invade Greece and Yugoslavia, took territory from Greece and Yugoslavia, battled anti-German partisans, skirmished with the Soviet Black Sea Fleet, and declared war on the UK and USA.

The question for OP is whether Hungary is truly neutral or only "Bulgarian" neutral. Does Hungary allow German troops to pass through its borders? If not, then Germany can't invade Greece or station troops in Romania, and has a harder time invading Yugoslavia.
I was thinking of true/genuine Hungarian neutrality here as opposed to merely Bulgarian-level neutrality.

Futurist
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Re: Hungary remains neutral in World War II

Post by Futurist » 04 Mar 2020 00:38

TheMarcksPlan wrote:
13 Feb 2020 20:03
If Hungary is going to take a stance like this then it's going to show in their 1940 decision whether to allow German troops to cross their territory into Romania, when Germany gave its security guarantee. So IMO things get sorted out - Hungary is invaded - during 1940.

An occupied Hungary would probably have contributed more to the German war effort via industry and better exploitation of oil resources (Hungary refused German requests to direct investment in oilfields that Hungary gained from Slovakia). Romania would have come deeper into the German fold, almost certainly contributing more oil to Germany and selling less to Wallies pre-Barbarossa - certainly that would have been the deal offered by Hitler.
You know, I wonder if a position of genuine neutrality by Hungary in 1940-1941 would have simply resulted in the Nazis launching a coup there several years earlier than in real life and installing the Arrow Cross to power in Hungary in 1940 or 1941 as opposed to in 1944. I mean, after France would have fallen in 1940, there really was no one who was actually capable of preventing the Nazis from implementing regime charge in Hungary had they so desired.

Futurist
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Re: Hungary remains neutral in World War II

Post by Futurist » 04 Mar 2020 00:39

Carl Schwamberger wrote:
13 Feb 2020 15:51
Technically Bulgaria was neutral, but the Red Army rolled in anyway. I'd expect the same with Hungary.
HistoryGeek2019 is correct that Bulgaria wasn't truly neutral during WWII like I want Hungary to be in this scenario.

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