The PoD is that Wallies make a separate peace with the European Axis on a date TBD. Feel free to specify your own reason why. My version would be a change in US/UK leadership to more hardline anti-communist (through elections, assassinations, earlier polio/alcoholism/obesity mortality, some combination thereof) and a change in German leadership (e.g. the bomb on Hitler's plane actually explodes and non-Nazis take over).
Subsidiary matters would include:
- Whether the Allies lift the blockade and resume trade with Germany.
- Whether Lend Lease to SU continues.
- Whether peace enables some transition for German economic relations with occupied territories, absent which massive disruption of the continental system probably occurs.
I raise the question because, in another thread, the issue of whether the Eastern Front was "close" in winter 42/3 came up. IMO it's "close" if German victory would flow from disappearance of the Wallies threat.
I'm not strongly attached to any particular date other than it's later than December '42. I could see arguments for dates up to Operation Bagration (which I guess means any date allowing Germany to move sufficient forces to stop Bagration, implying ~May '44). But I can see counter-arguments as well, especially if it's a "cold" peace with continued blockade and Lend Lease aid to Russia.