What is the latest date from which a Wallied separate peace enables Ostheer success

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TheMarcksPlan
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What is the latest date from which a Wallied separate peace enables Ostheer success

Post by TheMarcksPlan » 01 Feb 2020 07:13

I searched the sub for a topic with "separate peace" in the title, found none.

The PoD is that Wallies make a separate peace with the European Axis on a date TBD. Feel free to specify your own reason why. My version would be a change in US/UK leadership to more hardline anti-communist (through elections, assassinations, earlier polio/alcoholism/obesity mortality, some combination thereof) and a change in German leadership (e.g. the bomb on Hitler's plane actually explodes and non-Nazis take over).

Subsidiary matters would include:
  • Whether the Allies lift the blockade and resume trade with Germany.
  • Whether Lend Lease to SU continues.
  • Whether peace enables some transition for German economic relations with occupied territories, absent which massive disruption of the continental system probably occurs.
The definition of "Ostheer success" can vary but obviously must include no territorial losses to SU. E.g. repeat of Brest-Litovsk, march to Vladivostok, something in between.

I raise the question because, in another thread, the issue of whether the Eastern Front was "close" in winter 42/3 came up. IMO it's "close" if German victory would flow from disappearance of the Wallies threat.

I'm not strongly attached to any particular date other than it's later than December '42. I could see arguments for dates up to Operation Bagration (which I guess means any date allowing Germany to move sufficient forces to stop Bagration, implying ~May '44). But I can see counter-arguments as well, especially if it's a "cold" peace with continued blockade and Lend Lease aid to Russia.

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T. A. Gardner
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Re: What is the latest date from which a Wallied separate peace enables Ostheer success

Post by T. A. Gardner » 02 Feb 2020 05:54

June 21, 1941. After that, it wasn't going to happen.

It certainly isn't going to happen from October 1942 on. That's the defeat of Rommel at Alamein. A month later, the US lands in N. Africa.

So, the only realistic scenario is that the W. Allies make peace before Germany invades Russia.

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Re: What is the latest date from which a Wallied separate peace enables Ostheer success

Post by Aida1 » 02 Feb 2020 17:29

Summer of 1940 and there will be less of a pressure to go against the USSR quick.

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Re: What is the latest date from which a Wallied separate peace enables Ostheer success

Post by OpanaPointer » 02 Feb 2020 17:59

(Sorry, but the subject line made me see a wall-eyed Churchill. Boss Lady is still wondering why I was laughing like that.)
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Re: What is the latest date from which a Wallied separate peace enables Ostheer success

Post by Carl Schwamberger » 03 Feb 2020 03:25

If this 'peace' waives away the Japanese occupation of French Indo china, then US focus, preparations, and entry will be altered. If the peace also returns France to unoccupied independence early in 1941 US mobilization will further be altered.

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Re: What is the latest date from which a Wallied separate peace enables Ostheer success

Post by TheMarcksPlan » 03 Feb 2020 21:15

I must have momentarily forgot, when I posted this topic, that I am virtually alone in believing Germany had any chance of beating the SU.

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Re: What is the latest date from which a Wallied separate peace enables Ostheer success

Post by Aida1 » 05 Feb 2020 15:09

TheMarcksPlan wrote:
03 Feb 2020 21:15
I must have momentarily forgot, when I posted this topic, that I am virtually alone in believing Germany had any chance of beating the SU.
Not the way you describe .

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Re: What is the latest date from which a Wallied separate peace enables Ostheer success

Post by Carl Schwamberger » 05 Feb 2020 17:10

TheMarcksPlan wrote:
03 Feb 2020 21:15
I must have momentarily forgot, when I posted this topic, that I am virtually alone in believing Germany had any chance of beating the SU.
Difficult to find ways for a win, but from the opposite direction it's possible for the Communists to lose. Disintegration of the Soviet government, replacement of Stalin with someone weaker & less capable. Perhaps one or two more really bad decisions in 1941...

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Re: What is the latest date from which a Wallied separate peace enables Ostheer success

Post by Richard Anderson » 05 Feb 2020 18:11

A post from Richard was removed , as it container a language, and with a goal just to make a previous poster look like a fool, which we at AHF dont tolerate.

Behave and Keep a friendly tone in the future, otherwise more serious action will be taken.

/Georg
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Re: What is the latest date from which a Wallied separate peace enables Ostheer success

Post by TheMarcksPlan » 06 Feb 2020 00:49

Richard Anderson wrote:
05 Feb 2020 18:11
Carl Schwamberger wrote:
05 Feb 2020 17:10
TheMarcksPlan wrote:
03 Feb 2020 21:15
I must have momentarily forgot, when I posted this topic, that I am virtually alone in believing Germany had any chance of beating the SU.
Difficult to find ways for a win, but from the opposite direction it's possible for the Communists to lose. Disintegration of the Soviet government, replacement of Stalin with someone weaker & less capable. Perhaps one or two more really bad decisions in 1941...
Actually no Carl, his problem is not that he is "virtually alone in believing Germany had any chance of beating the SU" (oh boo-hoo poor little him), but rather he has yet to come up with a credible way of the Germans doing so without a staggering degree of prescience...or by Nazis not being Nazis. With hindsight it is easy to find the vulnerabilities in the Soviets that could result in their defeat, but the major one requires the Germans to never attack the western allies in the first place. Instead, the "solution" is tweaks to the German economy, based on hindsight, which needed to be begun around the time the Nazis assumed power and require the Nazi leadership in 1933 to know they will be invading the Soviet Union in 1941. Simple, right?
Richard Anderson misrepresents my views once again. Coincidence?

Just as one should provide a reference for statements about history, one should be able to provide reference to me saying a single time that German planning for invading Russia should start in 1933.

If Richard cannot provide such a citation (he can't), his post should be deleted in conformance with forum rules.

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Terry Duncan
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Re: What is the latest date from which a Wallied separate peace enables Ostheer success

Post by Terry Duncan » 06 Feb 2020 02:02

Topic locked by this moderator for administrative reasons.

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Re: What is the latest date from which a Wallied separate peace enables Ostheer success

Post by Georg_S » 06 Feb 2020 06:44

I have looked att some comments which Will be edited, but the One who made Them Will also see this as a formal warning. If you comment a post which you disagree to, all unnecessary comments with the purpose just to make the previous poster a fool is NOT something AHF see with a soft eye.

If you have problems keeping a friendly tone , DON'T REPLY!

//Georg
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