What if Germany didn't join world war 1?

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Octotrooper
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What if Germany didn't join world war 1?

Post by Octotrooper » 10 Feb 2020 20:31

What would have happened if instead of Germany joining Austria in the war they sat back and watched? Would they have ended up joining later or would the war end fairly rapidly? What would be the effects on the modern world? How much would it change modern history? Thanks in advance :D

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Re: What if Germany didn't join world war 1?

Post by maltesefalcon » 10 Feb 2020 21:38

This topic has been hashed over in various wordings/iterations several times already.
Try the search function...

In any case the Serbia/Austria Hungary/Russia conflict that would result would hardly qualify as a world war.

One other thing. "Didn't join" in the title and "joining later" in the body makes it look like you are trying to butter your bread on both sides.

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Re: What if Germany didn't join world war 1?

Post by Terry Duncan » 11 Feb 2020 00:11

Octotrooper wrote:
10 Feb 2020 20:31
What would have happened if instead of Germany joining Austria in the war they sat back and watched? Would they have ended up joining later or would the war end fairly rapidly? What would be the effects on the modern world? How much would it change modern history? Thanks in advance :D
Have a look at what happed to Austria when the Russian attack hit them in 1914 and then ask if Germany is going to see Austria-Hungary destroyed in a month or two more or join in as fast as possible. Germany needs to stop Austria going to war with Serbia, as Moltke's memorandum pointed out, after that every possible variation must lead to the Great European War that had been predicted for decades. It is either no war, or a really big war.

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Re: What if Germany didn't join world war 1?

Post by glenn239 » 18 Feb 2020 18:59

Octotrooper wrote:
10 Feb 2020 20:31
What would have happened if instead of Germany joining Austria in the war they sat back and watched? Would they have ended up joining later or would the war end fairly rapidly? What would be the effects on the modern world? How much would it change modern history? Thanks in advance :D
Define more precisely what you mean by, "sat back and watched". Are you saying strict neutrality? Or are you saying a neutrality more like the USA's in World War One?

In the former case Austria-Hungary will lose the war in about 3-6 months. How bad the peace terms are for Austria depends on whether Italy and Rumania also pile on.

In the latter case then the matter of war outcome is, IMO, not so clear - the paradox of 1914 could be that a neutral Germany can provide far more assistance (manpower, ammunition, equipment) to Austria as a neutral power than as a belligerent. For examples, a neutral Germany might be able to mobilize its industry to provide a million shells a month to Austria, and a neutral Germany could in theory mobilize four or five armies against Russia in a week or two, meaning that the Russians would have to withhold 3-4 armies from their campaign in Galicia even if Germany were neutral. (The Russian rail communications north to south of the Prippet marshes apparently in WW1 were not good, meaning that armies committed to the south could not possibly get north to face a potential German mobilization in any reasonable timeframe).

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Re: What if Germany didn't join world war 1?

Post by Georg_S » 18 Feb 2020 21:11

maltesefalcon wrote:
10 Feb 2020 21:38
This topic has been hashed over in various wordings/iterations several times already.
Try the search function...

In any case the Serbia/Austria Hungary/Russia conflict that would result would hardly qualify as a world war.

One other thing. "Didn't join" in the title and "joining later" in the body makes it look like you are trying to butter your bread on both sides.
Hello
As this topic is "What if" its pretty hard to use the search button in this case. Be polite and if you dont want to ad something dont interrupt the thread.

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Georg
Waffen-SS, SS-TV, KZ/KL SS-Pz.A.A.
- http://wennallebruderschweigen.blogspot.com/

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Re: What if Germany didn't join world war 1?

Post by Gorque » 19 Feb 2020 01:54

glenn239 wrote:
18 Feb 2020 18:59
Octotrooper wrote:
10 Feb 2020 20:31
What would have happened if instead of Germany joining Austria in the war they sat back and watched? Would they have ended up joining later or would the war end fairly rapidly? What would be the effects on the modern world? How much would it change modern history? Thanks in advance :D
In the latter case then the matter of war outcome is, IMO, not so clear - the paradox of 1914 could be that a neutral Germany can provide far more assistance (manpower, ammunition, equipment) to Austria as a neutral power than as a belligerent. For examples, a neutral Germany might be able to mobilize its industry to provide a million shells a month to Austria, and a neutral Germany could in theory mobilize four or five armies against Russia in a week or two, meaning that the Russians would have to withhold 3-4 armies from their campaign in Galicia even if Germany were neutral. (The Russian rail communications north to south of the Prippet marshes apparently in WW1 were not good, meaning that armies committed to the south could not possibly get north to face a potential German mobilization in any reasonable timeframe).
Interesting thoughts. Pan-Germanism was running quite high. I wonder how many would have volunteered to enlist with A-H?

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Re: What if Germany didn't join world war 1?

Post by glenn239 » 20 Feb 2020 18:10

Gorque wrote:
19 Feb 2020 01:54
Interesting thoughts. Pan-Germanism was running quite high. I wonder how many would have volunteered to enlist with A-H?
Hundreds of thousands perhaps. Then on top, the German government could provide weapons, money, and supplies on generous terms. Perhaps the Austrians could hire German officers on contract? Send Austrian conscripts and reservists to Germany for training and equipping? The French could, of course, supply the Russians similiarily but I still wonder if ole' Austria might have weathered the storm better than getting into a world war.

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Re: What if Germany didn't join world war 1?

Post by Terry Duncan » 20 Feb 2020 19:23

glenn239 wrote:
20 Feb 2020 18:10
Gorque wrote:
19 Feb 2020 01:54
Interesting thoughts. Pan-Germanism was running quite high. I wonder how many would have volunteered to enlist with A-H?
Hundreds of thousands perhaps. Then on top, the German government could provide weapons, money, and supplies on generous terms. Perhaps the Austrians could hire German officers on contract? Send Austrian conscripts and reservists to Germany for training and equipping? The French could, of course, supply the Russians similiarily but I still wonder if ole' Austria might have weathered the storm better than getting into a world war.
I am not too sure Germany would be overly happy with people who would almost certainly be on their own reservist lists and therefore liable for call up on mobilisation, going off to fight in Austria as it would play havoc if Germany later does wish to act. The other issue is how soon these volunteers could be turned into viable units, as the Russia Carpathian offensive could end the war before they arrive?

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Re: What if Germany didn't join world war 1?

Post by James A Pratt III » 23 Feb 2020 04:16

If Germany didn't join WW I there would have been no WW I. There was no way that Austria-Hungary was going to start a war unless they had the support of Germany as an ally. If the Germans had said to the Austrians don't invade Serbia ect. The Austrians would not have done so

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Re: What if Germany didn't join world war 1?

Post by glenn239 » 02 Mar 2020 16:03

Terry Duncan wrote:
20 Feb 2020 19:23
I am not too sure Germany would be overly happy with people who would almost certainly be on their own reservist lists and therefore liable for call up on mobilisation, going off to fight in Austria as it would play havoc if Germany later does wish to act. The other issue is how soon these volunteers could be turned into viable units, as the Russia Carpathian offensive could end the war before they arrive?
Good points. The idea of Austria fighting solo but supported would be militarily and politically risky. The Schlieffen Plan would be "off" because Russia would be long mobilized and fighting before Germany and France did so, and Germany would have to make special preparations to accommodate such a strategy.

So, the disadvantage was that Germany's historical war plan would be out the window. The advantage, politically, is similar to the one constantly advocated with 'what if Germany goes east?', in that Britain in particular would presumably be unenthusiastic at the idea of entering a war over a Russian attempt to cross the Carpathians. That is to say, if the Austrians can hold at the Carpathians, the Entente might not be able to respond in a unified fashion to a localised war simply because Germany is assisting Austria more than France is comfortable with. And, if the Russians cross the Carpathians and force Austria to surrender, then Germany could presumably annex Bohemia and Austria as part of the inevitable partition.

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