Separate peace between Russia and Germany in June 1917

[Helmut0815]

Scenario: Soon after the February Revolution and the following resignation of Tsar Nicolas the provisional socialist government under Prince Lvov realises that their exhausted and unwilling troops can't win the war. Thus they decide to end the war as soon as possible. Peace negotiations with the German empire start in the beginning of April 1917. As one of the first reactions the german goverment stops the transfer of Lenin and other leading bolsheviks to Sweden so they have to stay in their swiss exile. The funding of bolshevist propaganda and revolutionary activity is also being stopped. On 1st May 1917, an armistice between the Russian Republic and the Central Powers is concluded. Four weeks later peace negotiations begin in Brest-Litovsk. The conditions would have been harsh but not as harsh as in reality. Of course Finland and the batic states become independent as well as Poland. Belarus stays untouched while parts of the western Ukraine are being occupied by german troops but much fewer territory as the german army can not afford huge troops contigents laying around idle while the western front was bleeding white.

Possible outcome:
- Provisional russian government stabilized
- No October revolution, no communist regime
- Civil war in Russia between government and tsarists not accepting the terms?
- With the extra troops from the eastern front Germany launches an offensive in September 1917
- ???

best regards


Helmut

[History Learner]

The initial German offer IOTL was basically what the Trenches already covered; Congress Poland, Lithuania and Courland+Riga for the most part. I'd expect that to be same offer here and generally acceptable to the Russians. Not only are the Germans free to begin force transfers after the peace, they'll have an additional 20 Divisions or so compared to OTL Brest-Litovsk occupation requirements, given the lack of the rest of the Baltics, White Russia and Ukraine. With the infusion of German reinforcements, Italy will definitely be knocked out in late 1917, allowing for the stabilization of Austro-Hungary. Between Russian grain and Austro-Hungary having a much better harvest in the Fall of 1917, the civilian homefronts of all the Central Powers will be much improved.

Will the September, 1917 offensive be successful? Probably, but even if it's not, the Central Powers are in much better shape for 1918. If they don't score a decisive success initially, they're in position to win a peace of exhaustion sometime in 1919.

[Futurist]

The initial German offer IOTL was basically what the Trenches already covered; Congress Poland, Lithuania and Courland+Riga for the most part. I'd expect that to be same offer here and generally acceptable to the Russians. Not only are the Germans free to begin force transfers after the peace, they'll have an additional 20 Divisions or so compared to OTL Brest-Litovsk occupation requirements, given the lack of the rest of the Baltics, White Russia and Ukraine. With the infusion of German reinforcements, Italy will definitely be knocked out in late 1917, allowing for the stabilization of Austro-Hungary. Between Russian grain and Austro-Hungary having a much better harvest in the Fall of 1917, the civilian homefronts of all the Central Powers will be much improved.

Will the September, 1917 offensive be successful? Probably, but even if it's not, the Central Powers are in much better shape for 1918. If they don't score a decisive success initially, they're in position to win a peace of exhaustion sometime in 1919.

I suspect that knocking Italy out of the war would at the very least require a capture of Rome. No sources, just my own opinion. After all, with the US entry into the war, even if Italy will lose a lot of its territory, the hope could be that it could eventually liberate this territory. The loss of northern Italy would, of course, hurt Italy due to the loss of its industry there--but France nevertheless managed to survive the loss of heavily industrial northern France in WWI and even to subsequently liberate it with the help of the Anglo-Americans. The loss of Rome, however, could be a decisive morale-crusher for the Italians--but again, I just don't see the CPs actually getting that far, for logistical reasons if due to nothing else.

[History Learner]

The initial German offer IOTL was basically what the Trenches already covered; Congress Poland, Lithuania and Courland+Riga for the most part. I'd expect that to be same offer here and generally acceptable to the Russians. Not only are the Germans free to begin force transfers after the peace, they'll have an additional 20 Divisions or so compared to OTL Brest-Litovsk occupation requirements, given the lack of the rest of the Baltics, White Russia and Ukraine. With the infusion of German reinforcements, Italy will definitely be knocked out in late 1917, allowing for the stabilization of Austro-Hungary. Between Russian grain and Austro-Hungary having a much better harvest in the Fall of 1917, the civilian homefronts of all the Central Powers will be much improved.

Will the September, 1917 offensive be successful? Probably, but even if it's not, the Central Powers are in much better shape for 1918. If they don't score a decisive success initially, they're in position to win a peace of exhaustion sometime in 1919.

I suspect that knocking Italy out of the war would at the very least require a capture of Rome. No sources, just my own opinion. After all, with the US entry into the war, even if Italy will lose a lot of its territory, the hope could be that it could eventually liberate this territory. The loss of northern Italy would, of course, hurt Italy due to the loss of its industry there--but France nevertheless managed to survive the loss of heavily industrial northern France in WWI and even to subsequently liberate it with the help of the Anglo-Americans. The loss of Rome, however, could be a decisive morale-crusher for the Italians--but again, I just don't see the CPs actually getting that far, for logistical reasons if due to nothing else.

Between an expanded Caporetto and Monte Grappa, the Italian Army is destroyed and Venice overwhelmed.

[Futurist]

The initial German offer IOTL was basically what the Trenches already covered; Congress Poland, Lithuania and Courland+Riga for the most part. I'd expect that to be same offer here and generally acceptable to the Russians. Not only are the Germans free to begin force transfers after the peace, they'll have an additional 20 Divisions or so compared to OTL Brest-Litovsk occupation requirements, given the lack of the rest of the Baltics, White Russia and Ukraine. With the infusion of German reinforcements, Italy will definitely be knocked out in late 1917, allowing for the stabilization of Austro-Hungary. Between Russian grain and Austro-Hungary having a much better harvest in the Fall of 1917, the civilian homefronts of all the Central Powers will be much improved.

Will the September, 1917 offensive be successful? Probably, but even if it's not, the Central Powers are in much better shape for 1918. If they don't score a decisive success initially, they're in position to win a peace of exhaustion sometime in 1919.

I suspect that knocking Italy out of the war would at the very least require a capture of Rome. No sources, just my own opinion. After all, with the US entry into the war, even if Italy will lose a lot of its territory, the hope could be that it could eventually liberate this territory. The loss of northern Italy would, of course, hurt Italy due to the loss of its industry there--but France nevertheless managed to survive the loss of heavily industrial northern France in WWI and even to subsequently liberate it with the help of the Anglo-Americans. The loss of Rome, however, could be a decisive morale-crusher for the Italians--but again, I just don't see the CPs actually getting that far, for logistical reasons if due to nothing else.

Between an expanded Caporetto and Monte Grappa, the Italian Army is destroyed and Venice overwhelmed.

Venice isn't Rome, though. Venice might be more comparable to Lille in France. A loss of Lille would have probably significantly hurt France, but not crippled it. As for the Italian Army being destroyed, couldn't they build a new army with the help of the Franco-Anglo-Americans?

[History Learner]

The initial German offer IOTL was basically what the Trenches already covered; Congress Poland, Lithuania and Courland+Riga for the most part. I'd expect that to be same offer here and generally acceptable to the Russians. Not only are the Germans free to begin force transfers after the peace, they'll have an additional 20 Divisions or so compared to OTL Brest-Litovsk occupation requirements, given the lack of the rest of the Baltics, White Russia and Ukraine. With the infusion of German reinforcements, Italy will definitely be knocked out in late 1917, allowing for the stabilization of Austro-Hungary. Between Russian grain and Austro-Hungary having a much better harvest in the Fall of 1917, the civilian homefronts of all the Central Powers will be much improved.

Will the September, 1917 offensive be successful? Probably, but even if it's not, the Central Powers are in much better shape for 1918. If they don't score a decisive success initially, they're in position to win a peace of exhaustion sometime in 1919.

I suspect that knocking Italy out of the war would at the very least require a capture of Rome. No sources, just my own opinion. After all, with the US entry into the war, even if Italy will lose a lot of its territory, the hope could be that it could eventually liberate this territory. The loss of northern Italy would, of course, hurt Italy due to the loss of its industry there--but France nevertheless managed to survive the loss of heavily industrial northern France in WWI and even to subsequently liberate it with the help of the Anglo-Americans. The loss of Rome, however, could be a decisive morale-crusher for the Italians--but again, I just don't see the CPs actually getting that far, for logistical reasons if due to nothing else.

Between an expanded Caporetto and Monte Grappa, the Italian Army is destroyed and Venice overwhelmed.

Venice isn't Rome, though. Venice might be more comparable to Lille in France. A loss of Lille would have probably significantly hurt France, but not crippled it. As for the Italian Army being destroyed, couldn't they build a new army with the help of the Franco-Anglo-Americans?

Venice and its environs were the economic heart of Italy. While the Italian Army could be reconstituted, that would take a year or two.

[Futurist]

The initial German offer IOTL was basically what the Trenches already covered; Congress Poland, Lithuania and Courland+Riga for the most part. I'd expect that to be same offer here and generally acceptable to the Russians. Not only are the Germans free to begin force transfers after the peace, they'll have an additional 20 Divisions or so compared to OTL Brest-Litovsk occupation requirements, given the lack of the rest of the Baltics, White Russia and Ukraine. With the infusion of German reinforcements, Italy will definitely be knocked out in late 1917, allowing for the stabilization of Austro-Hungary. Between Russian grain and Austro-Hungary having a much better harvest in the Fall of 1917, the civilian homefronts of all the Central Powers will be much improved.

Will the September, 1917 offensive be successful? Probably, but even if it's not, the Central Powers are in much better shape for 1918. If they don't score a decisive success initially, they're in position to win a peace of exhaustion sometime in 1919.

I suspect that knocking Italy out of the war would at the very least require a capture of Rome. No sources, just my own opinion. After all, with the US entry into the war, even if Italy will lose a lot of its territory, the hope could be that it could eventually liberate this territory. The loss of northern Italy would, of course, hurt Italy due to the loss of its industry there--but France nevertheless managed to survive the loss of heavily industrial northern France in WWI and even to subsequently liberate it with the help of the Anglo-Americans. The loss of Rome, however, could be a decisive morale-crusher for the Italians--but again, I just don't see the CPs actually getting that far, for logistical reasons if due to nothing else.

Between an expanded Caporetto and Monte Grappa, the Italian Army is destroyed and Venice overwhelmed.

Venice isn't Rome, though. Venice might be more comparable to Lille in France. A loss of Lille would have probably significantly hurt France, but not crippled it. As for the Italian Army being destroyed, couldn't they build a new army with the help of the Franco-Anglo-Americans?

Venice and its environs were the economic heart of Italy.

Wasn't the same true for northeastern France in regards to France, though?

While the Italian Army could be reconstituted, that would take a year or two.

Just enough time for the Americans to get to Europe, no?