Japan launches Kantokuen - British DoW?

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magicdragon
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Re: Japan launches Kantokuen - British DoW?

Post by magicdragon » 31 May 2020 18:45

Bottom line, the Japanese would have to be complete idiots to embark on this line of military action as it doesn't benefit them in the least.
I think historically, strategically and politically the Japaneses saw the USSR as a threat. Removing the threat from the North frees up in the their minds resources for China and elsewhere, if the peak of their military strength on the USSR border was 1942 this proves that they were thinking of exploiting a USSR collapse brought on by the German campaigns of that year. It there weren't they would dig in and release the troops for other campaigns in the south. Striking north and taking the risk of US\UK intervention by occupying the NEI is a high risk strategy but their historical assumption of gaining a major naval victory and invading British, French and Dutch territories/protectorates and they would achieve victory by all them not wanting to fight a war of attrition and negotiate a peace accepting Japanese could keep their conquests could be seen as being equally far fetched. The very well laid out Wiki entry suggests a few things a) The Trans Siberian Railway was far more exposed to interdiction than I thought if the Japanese can fire artillery at it at some some points of its axis b) the balance of forces suggests a stalemate rather than a crushing victory even if the Japanese are defeated a USSR land advance into Manchuria would have been a logistic nightmare in 1941-43. In fact this would have been a win-win for the Germans as launching a mobile offensive into Manchuria, would have sucked up far more USSR strategic resources than a military stalemate c) the USSR would not have bothered maintaining the level of forces they did without a real concern that if the Japanese attacked it would not be easy to redeploy forces and oust them in an emergency - logically you would keep minimal forces in Siberia and if and when the Japanese attacked you would be confident that you western based armies could have been redeployed to smash any offensive d) I think the Japanese could have inflicted a range of tactical defeats on the Russians by capturing North Sakhalin and raising ports like Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky, Vladivostok by naval and air attacks. The key issue is one of timing - in order to build up sufficient forces for an attack north in 1941 the Japanese would have to be fully integrated into German military planning for Barbarossa from the early stages, given the historical lack of co-ordination between the Axis partners this would be the biggest issue?

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T. A. Gardner
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Re: Japan launches Kantokuen - British DoW?

Post by T. A. Gardner » 31 May 2020 21:02

magicdragon wrote:
31 May 2020 18:45
Bottom line, the Japanese would have to be complete idiots to embark on this line of military action as it doesn't benefit them in the least.
I think historically, strategically and politically the Japaneses saw the USSR as a threat. Removing the threat from the North frees up in the their minds resources for China and elsewhere, if the peak of their military strength on the USSR border was 1942 this proves that they were thinking of exploiting a USSR collapse brought on by the German campaigns of that year. It there weren't they would dig in and release the troops for other campaigns in the south. Striking north and taking the risk of US\UK intervention by occupying the NEI is a high risk strategy but their historical assumption of gaining a major naval victory and invading British, French and Dutch territories/protectorates and they would achieve victory by all them not wanting to fight a war of attrition and negotiate a peace accepting Japanese could keep their conquests could be seen as being equally far fetched. The very well laid out Wiki entry suggests a few things a) The Trans Siberian Railway was far more exposed to interdiction than I thought if the Japanese can fire artillery at it at some some points of its axis b) the balance of forces suggests a stalemate rather than a crushing victory even if the Japanese are defeated a USSR land advance into Manchuria would have been a logistic nightmare in 1941-43. In fact this would have been a win-win for the Germans as launching a mobile offensive into Manchuria, would have sucked up far more USSR strategic resources than a military stalemate c) the USSR would not have bothered maintaining the level of forces they did without a real concern that if the Japanese attacked it would not be easy to redeploy forces and oust them in an emergency - logically you would keep minimal forces in Siberia and if and when the Japanese attacked you would be confident that you western based armies could have been redeployed to smash any offensive d) I think the Japanese could have inflicted a range of tactical defeats on the Russians by capturing North Sakhalin and raising ports like Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky, Vladivostok by naval and air attacks. The key issue is one of timing - in order to build up sufficient forces for an attack north in 1941 the Japanese would have to be fully integrated into German military planning for Barbarossa from the early stages, given the historical lack of co-ordination between the Axis partners this would be the biggest issue?
This still doesn't address the elephant in the room as I outlined. What happens when the US, Dutch, and British stop all exports to Japan--which they will? Japan's economy has maybe six (6) months before it collapses. Japan cannot survive without massive importation of raw materials. Even after as little as three months, the economic effects of a complete embargo are going to begin to cripple the country.
We know from historical evidence that a complete embargo has a near 100% chance of happening.
Japan isn't going to get the lost resources invading Russia. So, how does this option benefit Japan? Answer is, it doesn't. Thus, this is the worst option the Japanese have and they full well knew it. That's why they avoided a war with Russia historically. It made zero economic or strategic sense for them, the Germans be damned.

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Re: Japan launches Kantokuen - British DoW?

Post by magicdragon » 01 Jun 2020 22:05

What happens when the US, Dutch, and British stop all exports to Japan--which they will? Japan's economy has maybe six (6) months before it collapses. Japan cannot survive without massive importation of raw materials. Even after as little as three months, the economic effects of a complete embargo are going to begin to cripple the country. We know from historical evidence that a complete embargo has a near 100% chance of happening.
Bar withdrawing from China increasing escalation levels of embargo are guaranteed. They had come to this conclusion, so its either north or south expansion. What I was suggesting was go north with a little bit of south (NEI).
Japan isn't going to get the lots resources invading Russia.
Just a quick perusal of some stats suggest it was not Zanadu but equally it was not Bukino Faso - Siberia’s contribution to the USSR economy in % of national output was given in Soviet statistical yearbooks for 1940 as: Coal 23%, Coking coal 17%, Oil 1.6%, Electric power output 6.6%, Iron ore 1.6%, Pig iron 10%, Crude steel 10%, Rolled steel 9.1%.
Other mineral production figures - Manganese: 100,000 tonnes (figures for 1939), Copper: 83,000 tonnes (figures for 1936), Lead 55,000 (figures for 1936) and zinc 63,000 tonnes (figures for 1936), Nickel 3,000 tonnes (figures in 1938), Gold 5,173,000 oz (figures for 1936) , Borax and Potash 1,800,000 tonnes (figures for 1937).
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Siberian_ ... _resources
Add that to the Dutch East Indies producing most of the world's supply of quinine and pepper, over a third of its rubber, a quarter of its coconut products, and a fifth of its tea, sugar, coffee, and being the fourth largest exporter of oil.

So, how does this option benefit Japan?
a) some raw materials b) a barrier state between them and the USSR c) settle an historical score d) release military forces for a drive to South if needed e) a convenient supply of slave labour.
Answer is, it doesn't.
Possibly it does?

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Re: Japan launches Kantokuen - British DoW?

Post by T. A. Gardner » 01 Jun 2020 22:57

magicdragon wrote:
01 Jun 2020 22:05
Bar withdrawing from China increasing escalation levels of embargo are guaranteed. They had come to this conclusion, so its either north or south expansion. What I was suggesting was go north with a little bit of south (NEI).
This is like your girlfriend telling you she's only a little pregnant. Attacking the DEI means the US and Britain enter the war too. With the US holding the Philippines, Japan has an instant problem almost on their doorstep as the US will build up forces there to a point where Japan gets nothing from the DEI.
Japan knew full well attacking just the DEI meant the above. That meant that the US and Britain had to be dealt with and invasions of the Philippines and Malaysia were a necessity. This means committing something like 15 to 20 divisions total to the Southern option and if they're committing 50 to a Northern one, and need say 20 in China to keep that pot from boiling over, all of a sudden it's a war they can't manage or win.
Just a quick perusal of some stats suggest it was not Zanadu but equally it was not Bukino Faso - Siberia’s contribution to the USSR economy in % of national output was given in Soviet statistical yearbooks for 1940 as: Coal 23%, Coking coal 17%, Oil 1.6%, Electric power output 6.6%, Iron ore 1.6%, Pig iron 10%, Crude steel 10%, Rolled steel 9.1%.
Other mineral production figures - Manganese: 100,000 tonnes (figures for 1939), Copper: 83,000 tonnes (figures for 1936), Lead 55,000 (figures for 1936) and zinc 63,000 tonnes (figures for 1936), Nickel 3,000 tonnes (figures in 1938), Gold 5,173,000 oz (figures for 1936) , Borax and Potash 1,800,000 tonnes (figures for 1937).
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Siberian_ ... _resources
Add that to the Dutch East Indies producing most of the world's supply of quinine and pepper, over a third of its rubber, a quarter of its coconut products, and a fifth of its tea, sugar, coffee, and being the fourth largest exporter of oil.
The problem is virtually none of the Soviet resources are anywhere close to Manchukuo and the Japanese would have to advance hundreds, even as much as a thousand miles, into Russia to capture them. That isn't going to happen anytime soon. The DEI's resources only become available if the Japanese can take Malaysia and the Philippines too. Because invading one is going to get all three in a war and once the US and Britain are involved, they can't win.
So, how does this option benefit Japan?
a) some raw materials b) a barrier state between them and the USSR c) settle an historical score d) release military forces for a drive to South if needed e) a convenient supply of slave labour.
Answer is, it doesn't.
Possibly it does?
It doesn't benefit Japan. They knew it and that's why the Southern option was taken and why they tried so hard to keep the Soviets out of the Pacific War. They had only a slim chance of winning the war they chose, and no chance of winning it if the Soviets got involved too.

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Re: Japan launches Kantokuen - British DoW?

Post by Kingfish » 01 Jun 2020 23:01

magicdragon wrote:
01 Jun 2020 22:05
Bar withdrawing from China increasing escalation levels of embargo are guaranteed. They had come to this conclusion, so its either north or south expansion. What I was suggesting was go north with a little bit of south (NEI).
You do realize that you are suggesting an advance of several hundred (if not thousand) miles into uncharted wilderness with what is essentially a marching army. Of the three Axis powers, Japan was by far the worst equipped for overland campaigns.
Japan isn't going to get the lots resources invading Russia.
Just a quick perusal of some stats suggest it was not Zanadu but equally it was not Bukino Faso - Siberia’s contribution to the USSR economy in % of national output was given in Soviet statistical yearbooks for 1940 as: Coal 23%, Coking coal 17%, Oil 1.6%, Electric power output 6.6%, Iron ore 1.6%, Pig iron 10%, Crude steel 10%, Rolled steel 9.1%.
Other mineral production figures - Manganese: 100,000 tonnes (figures for 1939), Copper: 83,000 tonnes (figures for 1936), Lead 55,000 (figures for 1936) and zinc 63,000 tonnes (figures for 1936), Nickel 3,000 tonnes (figures in 1938), Gold 5,173,000 oz (figures for 1936) , Borax and Potash 1,800,000 tonnes (figures for 1937).
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Siberian_ ... _resources[/quote]

How far into Siberia would the Japanese have to go before they can pluck these tempting fruits?
The gods do not deduct from a man's allotted span the hours spent in fishing.
~Babylonian Proverb

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Re: Japan launches Kantokuen - British DoW?

Post by Carl Schwamberger » 02 Jun 2020 02:03

Kingfish wrote:
01 Jun 2020 23:01
... How far into Siberia would the Japanese have to go before they can pluck these tempting fruits?
Very far? One of the problems I've seen in these discussions of "Siberia" is the term has very different meanings in different context. In the small amount of Soviet or Red Army literature I've read the term for the area bordering Manchuria & Korea is referred to as the 'Far East' or Far 'East Military District/s' or Far 'Eastern Military Districts'. Siberia could either refer to every thing from the Urals to the Pacific coast, or to some nebulous region east of the Urals but far west of the eastern maritime provinces and perhaps entirely east of Lake Baikal.

This:
Siberia’s contribution to the USSR economy in % of national output was given in Soviet statistical yearbooks for 1940 as: Coal 23%, Coking coal 17%, Oil 1.6%, Electric power output 6.6%, Iron ore 1.6%, Pig iron 10%, Crude steel 10%, Rolled steel 9.1%.
Other mineral production figures - Manganese: 100,000 tonnes (figures for 1939), Copper: 83,000 tonnes (figures for 1936), Lead 55,000 (figures for 1936) and zinc 63,000 tonnes (figures for 1936), Nickel 3,000 tonnes (figures in 1938), Gold 5,173,000 oz (figures for 1936) , Borax and Potash 1,800,000 tonnes (figures for 1937).
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Siberian_ ... _resources
...is just as likely to be found in the new industrial cities nearer the Urals than Vladivostok. To understand what the Japanese Army might realistically gain in military ops you'd want to look at a map showing the mine and factory locations. Based on such maps shown in a similar discussion years ago my guess is much of that will be out of reach of the IJA. Even if not destroyed by the Communists as they retreat.

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Re: Japan launches Kantokuen - British DoW?

Post by paulrward » 02 Jun 2020 20:57

Hello All :

Mr. T.A.Gardner posted the following in # 34 :
This is like your girlfriend telling you she's only a little pregnant. Attacking the DEI
means the US and Britain enter the war too.
With the US holding the Philippines, Japan
has an instant problem almost on their doorstep as the US will build up forces there to a point
where Japan gets nothing from the DEI.
Japan knew full well attacking just the DEI meant the above. That meant that the US and
Britain had to be dealt with and invasions of the Philippines and Malaysia were a necessity.
This means committing something like 15 to 20 divisions total to the Southern option and if
they're committing 50 to a Northern one, and need say 20 in China to keep that pot from
boiling over, all of a sudden it's a war they can't manage or win.

OBJECTION ! OBJECTION ! Mr. Gardner is introducing ' facts ' NOT in evidence !

Mr. Gardner, it is well known that Freewheelin' Franklin Roosevelt had promised Winnie
that if the Japanese invaded the NEI, and Britain went to war against them, that the United
States would join in. This much is known.

It is also known that his picked Cabinet of Cronies and Wheeler-Dealers had acted as an
'Amen Corner' in approving Franklin's desire to go to war against the Japanese. This also
well established.


However, Sir, you have provided NO EVIDENCE that Roosevelt had made ANY arrangements
with the United States Congress to go to war in this eventuality. To the best of my research,
Roosevelt had NO discussions with leaders of either the House or the Senate to get from them
a commitment to join with Britain in a war against the Japanese. In fact, in August 1941, AFTER
Barbarrossa had started and the Japanese had invaded French IndoChina, the House of
Representatives approved the extension of the Selective Service Act by only ONE vote.

Mr. Gardner, unless you can provide this forum with some form of documentary evidence that
Both the Senate and the House were willing to go along with a Declaration of War against
Japan in the case of a Japanese occupation of the N.E.I., then your repeated statements that
the United States and Great Britain would go to war in that situation are simply your opinion,
and are NOT supported by historical events or documentary evidence.

So, Mr. Gardner, do you have any such evidence ? I am waiting with bated breath.



Respectfully :

Paul R. Ward
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Re: Japan launches Kantokuen - British DoW?

Post by T. A. Gardner » 02 Jun 2020 21:43

In the business of liaring...er lawyering… they say...
If the law is in your favor argue the law...
If the facts are in your favor argue the facts...
If you've got nothing, pound your shoe on the table and cry foul.

Anyway, facts... Let's see...

In July 1940 Congress passed the Act to Expedite the Strengthening of National Defense. It allowed FDR to unilaterally and without the need of Congress, enact any and all embargos and end foreign trade as he saw fit. That is, FDR can embargo Japan to any extent he wanted at any time. So, the US can and will enact an full embargo on Japan. Want to bet that FDR then enforces it by stopping Japanese shipping moving between Japan and the DEI?

The Asama Maru incident I already put up shows the Royal Navy and Britain are certainly willing to do it.
https://britishinterest.org/the-asama-m ... for-today/

So, how does Japan respond? Lay down and lick their privates or go to war with the US and Britain. Goading Japan into a war wouldn't be hard.

Such an embargo in a Gallup poll at the time showed 96% support for such an embargo.

We also know the Dutch were only selling oil to Japan for hard currency but with their assets in the US and Britain, frozen they have no access to the foreign exchange currency they need to do it. Using domestic money won't cut it as the Dutch won't take Yen...
Worse, since Japan gets about 88% of their oil in imports and the largest importer is the US, the DEI alone won't make up for the loss of US oil. The USSBS shows that very clearly.

The US at the time also hit Japan with abiding by the Root-Takahira Agreement of 1908 which in part said Japan and the US would honor and respect holdings--like the Dutch held DEI--within Asia.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Root–Takahira_Agreement
So, it's likely the US would use this as an excuse for war in part if necessary.

Then there's the Four-Power treaty of 1921. Same thing. Japan and the US as signatories agreed to maintain the status quo in terms of control of land. Another treaty FDR could use to argue for war if the DEI were invaded-- particularly after the Soviet Union is at the same time...

So, the FACTS support that the US would likely go to war over a Japanese attempt to invade and take control of the DEI. Britain would follow that move in full expectation the US would enter the war in Europe on their side. Both are virtual certainties. While Congress might not be unanimous over doing so, there's every reason to believe that by June 1941 they would vote for war with Japan if the DEI were invaded.

The Japanese knew it. That's why they opted to preempt the US with a surprise attack and take the Philippines and other US possessions in Asia and the Pacific at the same time. They also knew Britain would declare war, siding with the US as much to draw the US into the war in Europe as to show support for the US's action.

The Selective Service Act is hardly representative of the diplomatic negotiations going on at the time. The US has always had a deep aversion for military drafts so it should be expected that there would be more resistance to having one, particularly in peacetime, than there was to war with Japan over expansionist and aggressive actions against more nations than China. Here we have Japan going to war with the Soviet Union, then invading the DEI. One might expect them to occupy French Indochina too. All of that would get them a war with the US as a virtual certainty.

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Re: Japan launches Kantokuen - British DoW?

Post by magicdragon » 02 Jun 2020 21:54

is just as likely to be found in the new industrial cities nearer the Urals than Vladivostok. To understand what the Japanese Army might realistically gain in military ops you'd want to look at a map showing the mine and factory locations.
I have and they are a long way from any realistic Japanese breakthrough point. I am sure some plans exist which suggest they could be taken by D+20 etc but I am sure they would be unrealistic. I am not arguing that the Japanese could have taken them based on any objective assessment but that given the whole bizarrely illogical concept of establishing the Greater East Asia Co-Prosperity Sphere by conquest and that they could fend off the European colonial powers and the USA at the same time is nuts. So if their adopted plan was nuts why not strike north based on the same flawed logic? I have not suggested they could take Siberia but that does not stop them for believing they could. My firm belief is unless the USSR is defeated on its western borders, the USSR wins in any scenario unless the Germans rip to pieces the Red Army first. In the case of a USSR military defeat by the Germans all bets are off. Japan gets what it wants or it feels it can hold on to? The whole idea of creating a buffer state to defend Japan from the USSR lies at the essence of Hokushin-ron (Northern Road).

Based on such maps shown in a similar discussion years ago my guess is much of that will be out of reach of the IJA.
No argument here. IJA could not projected this far without the the collapse of the USSR. But I think that some of their military officer class thought they could - like the logistics of Barbarossa the facts are selectivity used to fit the narrative.
Even if not destroyed by the Communists as they retreat.
The Japanese probably assumed the British French and Dutch would sabotage the facilities when they retreated, they probably would have had no idea the Red Army was as efficient in scorched earth tactics as they proved to be.

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Re: Japan launches Kantokuen - British DoW?

Post by paulrward » 03 Jun 2020 05:40

Hello All,

OooooooKay -I think I am going to dismantle Mr. Gardner's posting one paragraph at a time.
In July 1940 Congress passed the Act to Expedite the Strengthening of National Defense.
It allowed FDR to unilaterally and without the need of Congress ................ Want to bet that
FDR then enforces it by stopping Japanese shipping moving between Japan and the DEI
First of all, the Act ONLY applied to exports from the United States. For example, the U.S could
NOT, under the act, tell Royal Dutch Shell, which had a significant number of it's Board Members
who were pro Axis, that they couldn't export oil from the NEI to Japan. In fact, oil was going
from the NEI to Japan until July 1941. It was, in effect, the Netherlands Government in exile,
essentially a puppet government of the U.S and U.K., being forced to go along with it's new
master's instructions.

Now, let us say that Japan in July of 1941, along with striking north in a SitzKrieg against the
USSR, also is given the go-ahead by Hitler to occupy the NEI, IN PRECISELY THE SAME MANNER
THAT JAPAN WAS GIVEN PERMISSION TO OCCUPY FRENCH INDOCHINA.
The Japanese move
swiftly against the NEI, landing troops in force, and telling the locals that there is a new sheriff in
town. Historically, the Dutch did NOT destroy many of the facilities in the NEI, the oil resources
were, in the main, captured intact, ( Balikpapan and Tarakan were badly damaged by the Dutch
in scorched earth retreat tactics, but both were rebuilt by the Japanese with some diffculty )

What could the U.S. do ? First, Freewheelin Franklin has to get a Declaration of War from
the Congress. Mr. Gardner, you can pound YOUR shoe all you want, but you still haven't provided
a single scintilla of evidence that the mood in either U.S. public or the U.S.Congress showed any
inclination towards going to war.

As for Freewheelin Franklin halting the shipping between the NEI and Japan: Please, for the love of God,
look at a map of the Pacific. Remember what the IJN did to the USN in the first months of the
Pacific War. The USN was short of tankers, short of modern destroyers ( all in the Atlantic escorting
convoys ) and our Battle Line was obsolete, slow, and in poor condition. We still had battleships
with reciprocating engines, our two newest BBs had balky engines and screws, and the USN had only
VERY limited dock facilities in the Philippines. What you are suggesting is the the USN try a War
Plan Orange to save the NEI, while seeming to ignore the historical fact that, by 1940, the USN
had even abandoned ANY plans to try to save the PHILIPPINES, which were OUR possession !

In the summer of 1941, neither the British, the U.S, nor the NEI had any capability of resisting the
Japanese successfully, much less taking offensive action. The IJN could sail troop convoys around
the Philippines, out of range of the small number of US Army bombers, making sure that they sailed
under radio silence, and the US would never have know where they were. The occupation of
the NEI could have been accomplished in about two months, during which time the USN would
still be trying to pull up it's Big Girl Panties and get moving across the Pacific. Remember: In
all the Plan Orange arrangements, the USN was NEVER scheduled to arrive at the Philippines
before D+ 180 at the earliest. In other words, if the Japanese start their move on the NEI on
July 1, 1941, then right about January 1, 1942. the first USN battleships creep into Manila Bay.

By that time, the fighting, what little of it there was, in the NEI is over, it is now the JEI, and
the Japanese are making a big point of the fact that, for the first time in centuries, the native
peoples of Indonesia are being accorded civil rights, and are being treated as the equals of
their former Dutch Overlords and Masters. This would play well in certain parts of the US,
among certain portions of the population.
The Asama Maru incident I already put up shows the Royal Navy and Britain
are certainly willing to do it.

As for the Asama Maru, the Japanese learned from their mistake. They continued transporting
German Nationals from the US to Japan, but from then on, the Asama Maru sailed under
radio silence, took evasive courses, and, as it neared Japan, was given escorts of IJN warships.
I wonder what the captain of the Liverpool would have done if, during the incident, a pair
of IJN CA s had shown up, such as the Atago and the Takao..... My bet is he would have
slunk off, rather than taking the risk of the IJN cutting HIS privates off....
.........embargo in a Gallup poll at the time showed 96% support for
such an embargo.
An Embargo is a hell of a long step away from a DoW. I would recomend highly the
book, America First - The Battle Against Intervention 1940-1941 by Wayne Cole
He goes into excellent detail the extent and depth of the anti intervention feeling in
the U.S. at that time. In fact, while a Life magazine poll in July 1941 showed that
70 % of those polled were in favor of providing aid to Britain in the war, the same poll
showed that 70 % were AGAINST the U.S. entering the war. In other words, the
American people, and by extension, the U.S. Congress, were willing to to everything
to help the Allies except FIGHT !
We also know the Dutch were only selling oil to Japan for hard currency
Yes, and if the Japanese take over the NEI, that problem goes away. Either the Dutch
sell the oil, or they get shot, and the Japanese sell it to themselves for Yen. ( Isn't it
wonderful to be a Brutal Imperialist Power ! ) And, while the NEI ( OOPS ! I meant the
JEI ! ) could not supply the same amount of oil as the United States, it was sufficient
to supply Japan's needs until the USN submarines began to exterminate the Japanese
tanker fleet starting in late 1943. (you can find that in Morison, results of USN submarine
war against japan notes )
The US at the time also hit Japan with abiding by the Root-Takahira Agreement
of 1908
The Root Takahira Agreement made no mention of either Dutch or British possessions,
it was merely a working agreement between Japan and the U.S. Remember, the Japanese
took over the German Pacific territories, and never gave them back, they invaded
China, and attacked Russia, and the U.S. never did a thing militarily.
Then there's the Four-Power treaty of 1921.
Ah, but the Japanese have been given permission to occupy the NEI by the legitimate
government of the Netherlands, in the Hague. This would be the legalistic fig leaf that
the Japanese would use to cover their bulging uglies while they took over the Dutch
Colonies. If the U.S. doesn't like it, they can go to the League of Nations to protest......

So, the FACTS support that the US would likely go to war over a Japanese attempt
to invade and take control of the DEI. Britain would follow that move in full expectation
the US would enter the war in Europe on their side. Both are virtual certainties. While
Congress might not be unanimous over doing so, there's every reason to believe that by
June 1941 they would vote for war with Japan if the DEI were invaded.

Mr. Gardner, you are pounding your shoe again ! Show me some FACTS ! Show me a
single speech by a Senator or Congressman in which he advocated War against Japan PRIOR
to Pearl Harbor ! Cite me an Editorial in a major newspaper calling for war against
Japan in the summer of 1941 ! The fact is, JUST LIKE INDOCHINA, the Japanese would
simply be occupying the colonies of a defunct European Empire which, like the Empire
of Spain, no longer had any credibility.

Mr. Gardner, SHOW ME SOME FACTS ! Like, for example, a speech by Freewheeling Franklin
calling for war against Japan. Or a public statement to the press. Remember, his agreement
with Winnie was made in secret, over the objections of some of his own Cabinet, and,
immediately afterwards, Roosevelt attempted to crawfish in a series of cables to Churchill in
which he told Churchill that, if the British went to war against the Japanese, the U.S. would help
in any way they could. But, Roosevelt VERY CAREFULLY left out saying that we would go
to war against Japan. You can check it yourself.

......... The US has always had a deep aversion for military drafts .........

Yes, and there is a reason for that aversion. A soon as you hand the Big Chiefs in the Military a tribe
of draftee Indians, they all want to put on their face paint and go on the War Path. Just like
Viet Nam. The U.S. citizens generally don't . Now, you can lie to them, deceive them, or
bamboozle them into a war, like against Spain in 1898, or Iraq in 1991, or VietNam in 1964, but,
given time, they recover their sensibilities, and the war gets ended by the Congress. So, unless
the USN can figure out how to defeat the IJN in about 12 months, without a Pearl Harbor Moment,
you might have the Midterm Elections of 1942 taking the Congress away from Roosevelt and
handing it over to a Peace Party Coalition.
All of that would get them a war with the US as a virtual certainty.

Mr. Gardner, as Lyndon Baines Johnson once said, " Nothing in this World is Certain,
except Death and Texas..... "



Respectfully :

Paul R. Ward
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Re: Japan launches Kantokuen - British DoW?

Post by T. A. Gardner » 03 Jun 2020 17:44

WOW! What a complete, revisionist, pro-Nazi, fantasy that was!

Royal Dutch Shell's corporate heads fled the Netherlands ahead of the German invasion. Shell was operated as a corporation from Curacao in the Caribbean (aka Netherlands Antilles or the ABC islands). The electrical giant Philips did the exact same thing. The Germans / Nazis had ZERO control of Dutch overseas possessions and had NO power whatsoever to dictate how they operated.
In fact, not only did the owners flee, they took most of their intellectual and economic property with them. So the Germans had next to nothing other than the buildings and equipment in the Netherlands in their control.

As for French Indochina, the occupation wasn't a friendly one. The historical truth is that Japan presented Indochina's governor, Georges Catroux, with an ultimatum on 19 June 1940 that they end all rail movement of military goods to China or else. Catroux reluctantly complied. Three days later, the Japanese had "inspection teams" in Indochina to ensure compliance and the Japanese made a further demand that they be given "rights" to base troops, aircraft, and naval units in the country along with establishing the bases and harbors under their control for these.
A new governor arrived in Indochina on July 3 and suggested that the colony resist any Japanese military occupation. This stand off continued with negotiations through early August. The Vichy French even asked the Germans to intervene on their side but Germany stayed out of this entirely. By mid September the Japanese began to aggressively engage in border clashes and had a fleet sitting off the coast near Haiphong. On the 26th of September Japanese forces made landings and crossed the Chinese border into Indonesia. The French initially resisted the invasion then capitulated and agreed to a Japanese occupation of the northern part of the country. While the southern part remained unoccupied by Japan mostly because they feared what the US and Britain would do in response to an immediate occupation there with tens of thousands of troops. In fact, the full occupation of Indochina didn't happen until after Germany invaded the Soviet Union when Japan recognized that the Soviet threat in Manchukuo was now largely alleviated and they could focus on a Southern strategy against the US, DEI, and Britain.

The Japanese were never "given permission to occupy the NEI..." The Dutch government in exile, headed by Queen Wilhelmina, in London controlled the DEI, not any puppet government in the occupied Netherlands. This government in exile was in full collaboration with the British and US and was spending large sums to build up the DEI against a potential Japanese invasion. There is ZERO chance the Japanese could have walked in an occupied it. If anything, the Japanese invasion and occupation of Indochina set of alarms with the Dutch who redoubled their efforts to defend the DEI against Japanese aggression.

At this point the US was already in an economic war with Japan. The US was giving millions in aid and material to China. They were manufacturing large orders of military equipment for the DEI. They had embargoed almost everything going to Japan. Japan did try to make some concessions to appease the US, but US counter proposals that Japan withdraw from Indochina and most of China entirely to gain a return to "normal" economic trade were something the IJA faction running the country could not do without losing face.

Since Japan couldn't just occupy the DEI, and they couldn't continue with the embargo in place, they went to war with the US, Dutch, and Britain.

paulrward
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Re: Japan launches Kantokuen - British DoW?

Post by paulrward » 03 Jun 2020 20:55

Hello All :

Again, paragraph by paragraph.

First, Mr. Gardner, I AM NOT A PRO NAZI ! I resent your attempt to tar me with that brush, and see
it as an example of a person using Ad Hominem attacks when he has run out of facts. I had hoped
that you were better than that.



Now, as for Royal Dutch / Shell: ( And yes, the slash should be there as this predates that timeframe
when the slash was removed ) Up until 1939, RD/S was run by it's Director General, Sir Henri Deterding.
Sir Henri was an active supporter of Nazi Germany, donating large sums directly to Hitler, and was
considered by the Nazis as a generous friend that the Nazis tried to exploit even after his death.

When Sir Henri died, he controlled approximately 60 % of the shares of RD/S, either directly or through
proxies. At his death, his shares were lodged in a deposit box in a London bank. The British Government,
through various subterfuges, prevented Sir Henri's legitimate heirs, some of whom were also pro-Nazi,
from gaining control of these shares, and they were all, subsequent to the fall of the Netherlands in 1940,
handed over to Queen Wilhelmina and Prince Bernhard. Some rather cynical types have hinted that this
may have been a type of inducement ( spelled b-r-i-b-e ) to the Dutch Royals to keep them in the Allied
camp, as it must be remembered that Prince Bernhard had been a member of the German SS prior to his
marriage to Wilhelmina.

Now, as you correctly stated, when the Netherlands collapsed, the remaining directors of RD/S moved
to Curracao. NOT to London ! In this way, they could keep a more direct control over the oil interests
of their company in South America, and prevent the British from simply rolling them into the British
Petroleum Empire. And, it is a know fact that both RD/S and the Texaco corporation shipped oil
to Franco's Spain during the war, much of which ended up in Germany. ( This oil was shipped 'off
the books ' , in company tankers along the South Atlantic Route. The convoys were often escorted
by USN destroyers, and were NEVER attacked by U-Boats on their voyages. )

As for RD/S in the NEI, as well as the what happened to the Indonesian oil in WW2, I would refer you
to an internet site that can be found with the search line:
the battle for oil in the dutch east indies - Journals

which will yield a PDF article entitled:

THE BATTLE FOR OIL IN THE DUTCH EAST INDIES:
PLADJOE, THE PEARL IN THE CROWN OF THE BATAAFSCHE
PETROLEUM MAATSCHAPPIJ (SHELL), IN THE TURMOIL OF THE 1940s
by Ben de Vries MA

As he points out, and I quote,
Tokyo needed yearly at least 7,9 million tons of oil to win their Greater East
Asia War. Sumatra could deliver 5,3 million
And it must be noted: This is JUST Sumatra. If you add in Java and Borneo, then the Japanese will
get more than enough oil to operate without any supply from the U.S.

As his article also shows, while some oil installations were damaged during the Japanese Invasion,
they were restored to operation relatively quickly ( six months to one year for the most part ) and
the Japanese were able to exploit them to service their war efforts. So, to sum up, if the Japanese
take the NEI, they don't NEED the U.S. oil shipments anymore.


As for the Japanese occupation of French IndoChina: As one humorist put it very accurately, throughout
the 1930s, the French Military practiced only four maneuvers: Advance, Retreat, Surrender, and ...
Collaborate.....

One of the reasons that Ho Chi Minh was so emboldened in his decision to drive the French from
Viet Nam was his experiences in watching how impotent they were when facing the Japanese. The
Dutch Indies were no different. Essentially, the people who moved from Europe to the Asian colonies
went there to get rich. No other reason. They were there to carve a fortune out of the natives,
exploiting their labor and their resources for their own ends.

A person who is trying to get rich may be willing to fight, but he will NOT fight to the death. After
all, as a wise man once said, " Dyin' ain't no way to make a livin, boy ! " So, while a Japanese invasion
of the NEI wouldn't be a ' friendly takeover ' it would still be a takeover, and at the end of the day, the
Japanese would have the oil.

Mr. Gardner, you yourself concede :
The Vichy French even asked the Germans to intervene on their side but Germany
stayed out of this entirely.
Mr. Gardner, in return for ...... NOTHING, the Germans allowed the Japanese to take over IndoChina.
And, as for their ' staying out of this entirely.' , Sir, have you never heard to the legal doctrine,
' Silence implies consent ' ?

The Japanese were never "given permission to occupy the NEI...

So for offering nothing, the Japanese got IndoChina. Now, Mr. Garder, you will have to stretch your
mind a little.
What if a member of the Japanese Cabinet had opened a Japanese - Latin Dictionary,
and come upon the phrase , " Quid Pro Quo " ? This For That . Inspired by this revelatory idea,
he speaks to his fellow cabinet ministers, they make a proposal to the Emperor, and, few days after
Barbarrossa begins, the Japanese approach Berlin with an Offer : In return for Japan attacking the USSR,
and thus both freezing the Soviet troops in place in the Far East while at the same time cutting the
Trans Siberian Railway and putting Vladivostock out of the war, The Germans have the Dutch Puppet
Government in the Hague grant permission to the Japanese to occupy the NEI
as a 'temporary expedient'
to protect them while the war is going on.

Quid Pro Quo. This For That. Of course the British and the United States will denounce the action,
stating that the Puppet Government in the Hague has no authority, but the Japanese and the Germans
can counter that the Government in Exile has an equal lack of authority, as it has no army, navy,
air force, or even police.

Mr. Gardner, one of the things you seem to fail to grasp is that a Government in Exile is like an ex girl
friend. You don't have to listen to them, or take their calls, and you sure as hell don't have to do
anything they say. They are superfluous noise, that can be ignored. Most of the time, after a few
years, they just dry up and blow away. Kind of like a presidentlal candidate who loses the election.
Just think ' Hillary ' and you have some kind of idea of what I am talking about.

The Japanese were never "given permission to occupy the NEI...
That's right. The U.S. had ALREADY DONE everything it could do short of going to war. And,
Mr. Gardner, YOU HAVE STILL NOT PROVIDED A SHRED OF EVIDENCE THAT THE UNITED STATES
WAS CERTAIN TO GO TO WAR IF THE JAPANESE INVADED THE NEI. Mr. Gardner, we are still
waiting for you to come up with some sort or level of factual information that would demonstrate
conclusively that the United States was commited to go to war in the case of and NEI invasion.
So far, sir, all we have are crickets chirping. Please, sir, I am still waiting, hungrily for some
sort of documented evidence that the United States would unilaterally declare war on Japan
if Japan invaded the NEI.

Since Japan couldn't just occupy the DEI, and they couldn't continue with the
embargo in place ......

And here is where your lack of imagination shows up so blindingly. The Japanese COULD
just occupy the NEI, and if they did, the embargo becomes irrelevant. There was NOTHING
to stop them. Not Winnie, not Freewheelin Franklin, Uncle Joe. The Japanese had the
full run of the South Pacific, but they didn't realize it. They were still so over awed by the
United States that they were certain that the U.S. would attack them if they made the wrong
move. So, they attacked the U.S. first. Which was the wrong move.

Mr. Gardner, the reason that the Japanese attacked the United States and Great Britain
at the same time was because they miscalculated the response of both nations. They didn't
realize that Britain was willing to fight to the death of the last of their allies, and that the
United States could not militarily get off their butts until someone literally kicked them
into the air. Which is what the Japanese did at Pearl Harbor.

To sum it up, Mr. Gardner, a Japanese defeat in WW2 was NOT pre ordained by God! It
occurred because the Japanese, to put it bluntly, F@(K-ED UP ! And, because of that,
they got Atom Bombed.

And that is the most important object lesson that everyone on this forum, or, in fact , everyone
everywhere, should learn: When You F@(K UP, you get Atom Bombed !



Respectfully :

Paul R. Ward
Information not shared, is information lost
Voices banned, are voices who cannot share information....

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TheMarcksPlan
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Re: Japan launches Kantokuen - British DoW?

Post by TheMarcksPlan » 08 Jun 2020 12:59

T.A. Gardner wrote:Bottom line, the Japanese would have to be complete idiots to embark on this line of military action as it doesn't benefit them in the least
Bottom line is you're blind to the strategic aspects of alliance warfare.

Only such a blindspot could enable one to conclude that a Germany focused entirely on the Walies has not the least benefit to Japan.

As you seem to understand, Japan stood no chance of prevailing against the U.S. unless as part of a coalition that diverted American attention elsewhere. Even then, Pearl probably means the US would have preferred a peace with Germany over peace with Japan if forced to choose (and I believe we would have been forced to choose if the SU falls in '42).

Re some other points you make upthread:

-of course an attack on the DEI means war with Britain and the U.S.

-Japan estimated it had 6-12 months after launching Kantokuen before running out of fuel. Sufficient time for a September Kantokuen and a winter move south.

As stated upthread, however, I don't see this as feasible unless Barbarossa goes significantly better than OTL.

Perhaps the best Japanese/Axis move would have been OTL Pacific for 5 months, then Kantokuen in '42. Hitler could have refused a DoW on America unless Japan cuts off LL completely, for example.

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Re: Japan launches Kantokuen - British DoW?

Post by Takao » 09 Jun 2020 00:18

I believe that was th he original Japanese intention. Run roughshod over the Pacific, then turn North in Fall '42, after the US & UK sued for peace in summer '42.

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Re: Japan launches Kantokuen - British DoW?

Post by Takao » 09 Jun 2020 00:24

TheMarcksPlan wrote:
08 Jun 2020 12:59
Bottom line is you're blind to the strategic aspects of alliance warfare.
That would be the Germans & Japanese...

They never fought or acted as an alliance. They were only opportunists acting in what they perceived as their own best interest.

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