Japan launches Kantokuen - British DoW?

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TheMarcksPlan
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Re: Japan launches Kantokuen - British DoW?

Post by TheMarcksPlan » 10 Jun 2020 07:46

Takao wrote:
09 Jun 2020 00:24
TheMarcksPlan wrote:
08 Jun 2020 12:59
Bottom line is you're blind to the strategic aspects of alliance warfare.
That would be the Germans & Japanese...

They never fought or acted as an alliance. They were only opportunists acting in what they perceived as their own best interest.
This response by Takao is so typical of AHF.

The factual claim is one that anybody who's seen the History Channel already knows (i.e. Germany and Japan didn't work together closely).

Most importantly, however, the poster thinks he is "scoring points" against his interlocutor because he's saying something disparaging of the Axis. Why else make such a rudimentary, obvious point?

Two things are true:

(1) Gardiner's statement that Japan would gain nothing by helping Germany beat Russia is blind to the grand strategic picture

AND

(2) Japan was itself blind to the grand strategic picture.

A year or so ago I would have been surprised to need to explain this on this forum. Now, it's just another example childish partisanship impeding most discussions on this board.

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Takao
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Re: Japan launches Kantokuen - British DoW?

Post by Takao » 10 Jun 2020 12:34

Then please provide examples of this close strategic alliance.

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Re: Japan launches Kantokuen - British DoW?

Post by Terry Duncan » 10 Jun 2020 13:42

If the thread descends into personal comments and trolling it will be locked just like the previous thread, and people who act in such a way can expect to have some time to reflect on why rules exist. Treat each other with respect, address the arguments and not the person, and resist the urge to make sarcastic comments. It is clear several of you do not get on, but for some reason feel compelled to keep bickering, but if you cannot do so in a civil manner there is always the option to simply ignore each other.

Terry

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T. A. Gardner
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Re: Japan launches Kantokuen - British DoW?

Post by T. A. Gardner » 10 Jun 2020 17:02

TheMarcksPlan wrote:
10 Jun 2020 07:46
Two things are true:

(1) Gardiner's statement that Japan would gain nothing by helping Germany beat Russia is blind to the grand strategic picture
Do elaborate. How did Germany historically help Japan strategically? How would Japan be helped in this variant by engaging in a very costly war with Russia while faced with economic collapse at home?

After all, Japan clearly does not have the wherewithal to take on a three front war against Russia, China, and then the US / Britain / Commonwealth and Dutch.

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Re: Japan launches Kantokuen - British DoW?

Post by paulrward » 10 Jun 2020 21:32

Hello All :

In an effort to restore civility, I am going to hijack this thread :D

Mr. Takao wrote :
They never fought or acted as an alliance. They were only opportunists acting
in what they perceived as their own best interest.

Mr. TheMarcksPlan wrote :
Two things are true:

.......(2) Japan was itself blind to the grand strategic picture.

And Mr. Gardner wrote :
How did Germany historically help Japan strategically? How would Japan be
helped in this variant by engaging in a very costly war with Russia while faced with
economic collapse at home?


All three of these statements are PERFECT summaries of the historical time line. But, this is the
' What If ' Forum. So, as part of the ' Re: Japan launches Kantokuen - British DoW? ' , What if we
append it to add: ....and Germany, Japan, and Italy, along with all the other Axis collaborating States,
instead of acting as the self-absorbed, racist, blindly self interested idiots they historically were,
chose to instead COORDINATE THEIR ACTIONS starting in the spring of 1941, such that Japan and
Germany carried out a coordinated offensive against the USSR, and possibly the NEI ?


This would mean that, starting in early 1941, the Japanese and Germans have sit down talks in either
Berlin or Tokyo, arrange the course of strategy, set up mutually interlocking plans to allow both sides
to profit, set up time tables for actions, arrange for a distribution of spoils, and set up the mechanism
to diplomatically neutralize the United States until they had accomplished the mutual goals of :
1) Eliminating the USSR, 2) Occupying French IndoChina and the NEI, and 3) Isolating Britain and the
United States from the rest of Europe, China, and South America.


All of the discussions about an Axis Victory are impossible, in my viewpoint, unless this had occurred.


But, ( and this is a very broad but to contemplate ), What if this sort of collaboration / coordination
had taken place ?
Historically, the three Axis Powers behaved like Larry, Moe, and Curly. What
if, instead, they had been more like the Three Musketeers ?

I would request that everyone following this thread consider this concept, and comment on it,
not in terms of whether it actually occurred, or could have occurred based on the personalities
and psychologies of the major participants, but rather the effect IF IT HAD OCCURRED !


Respectfully :

Paul R. Ward
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Voices banned, are voices who cannot share information....

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Re: Japan launches Kantokuen - British DoW?

Post by T. A. Gardner » 10 Jun 2020 22:27

paulrward wrote:
10 Jun 2020 21:32
Hello All :

In an effort to restore civility, I am going to hijack this thread :D

All three of these statements are PERFECT summaries of the historical time line. But, this is the
' What If ' Forum. So, as part of the ' Re: Japan launches Kantokuen - British DoW? ' , What if we
append it to add: ....and Germany, Japan, and Italy, along with all the other Axis collaborating States,
instead of acting as the self-absorbed, racist, blindly self interested idiots they historically were,
chose to instead COORDINATE THEIR ACTIONS starting in the spring of 1941, such that Japan and
Germany carried out a coordinated offensive against the USSR, and possibly the NEI ?


This would mean that, starting in early 1941, the Japanese and Germans have sit down talks in either
Berlin or Tokyo, arrange the course of strategy, set up mutually interlocking plans to allow both sides
to profit, set up time tables for actions, arrange for a distribution of spoils, and set up the mechanism
to diplomatically neutralize the United States until they had accomplished the mutual goals of :
1) Eliminating the USSR, 2) Occupying French IndoChina and the NEI, and 3) Isolating Britain and the
United States from the rest of Europe, China, and South America.


All of the discussions about an Axis Victory are impossible, in my viewpoint, unless this had occurred.


But, ( and this is a very broad but to contemplate ), What if this sort of collaboration / coordination
had taken place ?
Historically, the three Axis Powers behaved like Larry, Moe, and Curly. What
if, instead, they had been more like the Three Musketeers ?

I would request that everyone following this thread consider this concept, and comment on it,
not in terms of whether it actually occurred, or could have occurred based on the personalities
and psychologies of the major participants, but rather the effect IF IT HAD OCCURRED !
Okay, let's go with this for the moment.

Problem ONE with it is this:
...they historically were, chose to instead COORDINATE THEIR ACTIONS starting in the spring of 1941, such that Japan and
Germany carried out a coordinated offensive against the USSR, and possibly the NEI ?
Why would they wait until 1941? Italy and Germany had been at war for half-a-year at that point, with Germany alone at war nearly a year-and-a-half. Japan had been at war in China for four plus years.

You have Italy and Mussolini wanting to run a "parallel" war with Germany and not willing to accept German running of their military. To have what you suggest occur, you need the Italians to buy into German control, at least in terms of strategy and operations, of the Italian military. How does this happen?
Worse, the Italians have already screwed up their own war losing Italian East Africa, being defeated in North Africa, and requiring dragging the Germans in to just prop up their sorry remnants after those defeats. That means Germany still gets sidetracked into several campaigns they really didn't want to engage in.

In China, I could see the Germans staying out of that conflict instead of supplying and training the Chinese army like they did.

Japan would have to have undergone a major cultural revolution to avoid the escalation of the war in China, and that is necessary to keep the US et. al. out of Asia and a war with Japan. Because if Japanese actions to just January 1941 are taken into account, then Japan has this sudden epiphany, its already too late and they are committed to eventual war with the US.

Then there's the "What's in it for me?" angle. Japan and Italy have immediate strategic goals they want and need to meet. How is Germany going to further those in exchange for Japan's and Italy's help meeting German ones? I doubt Germany saying the equivalent of "I'll gladly pay you Tuesday for a Soviet invasion today..." is going to motivate either to willingly and enthusiastically get into a war with the Soviet Union.

The problem with the German - Japan angle is the two have almost no intersecting strategic goals. For Japan, an invasion of Russia does them little good. They need the resources and the Southern option is much better for them. If anything, Germany declaring war on the US days after the Japanese did was a good thing for Japan.

As can be seen here:

http://www.ibiblio.org/pha/pha/pt_14/x15-050.html

The US, British, and Dutch had as early as March 1941 agreed to a combined command and operations in the event Japan committed an act of war on any of the three in Asia. Attempted occupation of the DEI by the Japanese would qualify, Germany's puppet government in the Netherlands okey doaking it notwithstanding.

The Japanese would have been aware of this as well, to at least some degree.

So it would still come back to Italy and Japan asking "What's in this for me, now?" from the Germans. The clear answer is Germany has nothing or very little to offer as incentives to either for their participation in attacking the Soviet Union. Italy sent an army mostly because Germany was propping up their forces in N. Africa with the Afrika Korps. But, Italy was hardly going to be able to send the quality and quantity of troops to truly make a serious difference. They simply didn't have them.

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Re: Japan launches Kantokuen - British DoW?

Post by TheMarcksPlan » 10 Jun 2020 22:29

T.A. Gardner wrote:Do elaborate. How did Germany historically help Japan strategically?
TheMarcksPlan wrote:(2) Japan was itself blind to the grand strategic picture.
...as in Japan did not see the imperative to help Germany defeat Russia. As in the Axis DID NOT collaborate on grand strategy.

Which is why I articulated the following distinction:
1. Would Japan joining the anti-SU war would have resulted in SU's defeat?

2. Whether and under what conditions Japan would have joined the anti-SU war.
Analytical clarity goes a long way guys.

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Takao
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Re: Japan launches Kantokuen - British DoW?

Post by Takao » 10 Jun 2020 22:49

1941 is far too late for the 3 Stooges to start acting like Musketeers.

1936. Germany & Japan sign the Anti-Comintern Pact, aimed directly at the Soviet Union. Germany would break this Pact in 1939, as her own needs outweighed those of Japan.

1938. Germany begins her attempts to get Japan & Italy to form a military pact. Both refuse. As the Japanese war in China does not end quickly, they ask for a consultative treaty. Germany refuses, insisting on a military one, Japan is noncommittal to this.

With the IJA's first failure against the Soviets in mid-1938, the IJA looks favorably on a military proposal. However, they quickly back away with the Munich Crisis, when such a Pact looks as if Japan will be dragged into a European War. Despite Germany's success in Czechoslovakia, Japan is no closer to signing a Pact.

In April, 1939, Japan counterproposes a Pact aimed only at the Soviets, all other nations are of secondary importance, and Japan would only go to war with these states at her own discretion. Shattering Ribbentrop's hope of reaching a military pact.

Germany now counters with threats of a pact with the Soviets, but continue to haggle over possible terms.

I could continue with this line of reasoning through 1941 and beyond...But what is the point.
The lack of trust between Germany & Japan precludes them acting like Allies.


Thus, this becomes an "Alien Space Bats" what if.

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Re: Japan launches Kantokuen - British DoW?

Post by paulrward » 10 Jun 2020 23:00

Hello All :

In answer to Mr. Gardner's questions :
So it would still come back to Italy and Japan asking "What's in this for me, now?"
from the Germans.

OK, for the Italians, it would ultimately be that Germany would strip France of most of
it's African posessions, and hand them over to Italy, along with Egypt, Somalia, and
everything else they could pry away from Britain
after the war with Russia was over.


For the Japanese, again, it would be free run in the NEI, along with Siberia, Manchuria,
Mongolia, China, and perhaps a big chunk of Yakutsk, Irkutsk, and how about Lake Baikal,
deepest freshwater lake on the planet ?


In other words, the GEACPS now includes a big chunk of what was the Eastern Soviet Union.
If the USSR is defeated, they will not be able to resist any Japanese offensives in the East.

Mr. Gardner, you stated :

US, British, and Dutch had as early as March 1941

On exactly what date in March 1941 did the United States Senate approve a treaty binding
the United States to action in the case of war against any of the three powers you mentioned ?
Freewheelin Franklin might have WANTED such an agreement, but without the authorization of
the Senate, it was nothing by Roosevelt ' Wheeler-Dealer ' Hot Air !

I have asked repeatedly on this thread to be shown evidence that the United States had comitted,
AS A GOVERNMENT, to go to war if the NEI were invaded. So far, no evidence has been presented.

For that reason, I think we would all have to concede that it it more than likely that, had Japan
seized the NEI, the United States ( expecially the Roosevelt Administration ! ) would have been
somewhat upset, but that NO WAR WOULD HAVE RESULTED !

In fact, when the Japanese invaded, large numbers of the native peoples of the NEI JOINED the
Japanese ! Initially, the Japanese forces were seen as potential liberators from the tyrannical
Dutch who had treated the native peoples as second class citizens and who were, at this point
in history, even imposing discriminatory policies against the so called ' mixed race ' people who,
until the early 1930s, had been accorded a status equal to Caucasians in the NEI. The Dutch
were NOT popular among the natives of the NEI, and this is shown by how quickly the Dutch
were THROWN OUT of Indonesia after the war !

An active propaganda campaign, set up in advance in the U.S., might have created a problem
for Roosevelt with the liberal wing of his party, and the NAACP in particular, by emphasizing
that the Japanese were merely liberating the oppressed brown people of the Indies from the
racist colonial Dutch.......
This itself might be enough to keep Roosevelt and the U.S. on the
fence.

So, the Quid Pro Quo is this: If Japan and Italy assist Germany in a coordinated action against
the USSR ( Germany and Japan ) and the British in North Africa ( Italy ), then in return they get
large, post war Empires. Quid Pro Quo. This For That.



Mr. Gardner, in a very famous science fiction novel from the 1960s, the hero confronts the villain,
and says, " Okay. You need me. I'm for sale. BUY ME ! "

The villain does just that, with a very handsome price.


Respectfully :

Paul R. Ward
Information not shared, is information lost
Voices banned, are voices who cannot share information....

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Takao
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Re: Japan launches Kantokuen - British DoW?

Post by Takao » 10 Jun 2020 23:00

TheMarcksPlan wrote:
10 Jun 2020 22:29
T.A. Gardner wrote:Do elaborate. How did Germany historically help Japan strategically?
TheMarcksPlan wrote:(2) Japan was itself blind to the grand strategic picture.
...as in Japan did not see the imperative to help Germany defeat Russia. As in the Axis DID NOT collaborate on grand strategy.

Which is why I articulated the following distinction:
1. Would Japan joining the anti-SU war would have resulted in SU's defeat?

2. Whether and under what conditions Japan would have joined the anti-SU war.
Analytical clarity goes a long way guys.
You have to answer the question "Why would Japan join an anti-SU?" before you ask would, whether and under what conditions.

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Re: Japan launches Kantokuen - British DoW?

Post by paulrward » 10 Jun 2020 23:10

Hello All ;

To Mr. Takao :

You stated:
1941 is far too late for the 3 Stooges to start acting like Musketeers.
and
The lack of trust between Germany & Japan precludes them acting like Allies.
Thus, this becomes an "Alien Space Bats" what if.

Mr. Takao, if you go back to my posting, I stated at the end :
I would request that everyone following this thread consider this concept,
and comment on it, not in terms of whether it actually occurred, or could have occurred
based on the personalities and psychologies of the major participants, but rather the
effect IF IT HAD OCCURRED !

Mr. Takao, if you can't get past what historically happened, and consider this as a ' What If ',
then, at the risk of being rude, there is no point your continuing in the discussion of the idea.

However, I would add this note: Historically, when the USSR invaded Poland in 1939 in
concert with the Germans, and then invaded Finland, they were taken off Winston Churchill's
Christmas Card List. Then the Germans invaded Russia, and suddenly they were Winnie's buddy's
again. Diplomacy and War, like Politics and Sex, makes very strange bedfellows.....

Finally, Mr. Takao, you ask the rhetorical question ;
You have to answer the question "Why would Japan join an anti-SU?" before you
ask would, whether and under what conditions.
How about if they see it as the best opportunity to gain control of Asia, and establish
Hirohito as the ruler of the largest empire ( in terms of population ) in the history
of the human race ? Hmmmmmm.....



Respectfully :

Paul R. Ward
Information not shared, is information lost
Voices banned, are voices who cannot share information....

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Takao
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Re: Japan launches Kantokuen - British DoW?

Post by Takao » 11 Jun 2020 00:01

paulrward wrote:
10 Jun 2020 23:00
Hello All :

In answer to Mr. Gardner's questions :
So it would still come back to Italy and Japan asking "What's in this for me, now?"
from the Germans.

OK, for the Italians, it would ultimately be that Germany would strip France of most of
it's African posessions, and hand them over to Italy, along with Egypt, Somalia, and
everything else they could pry away from Britain
after the war with Russia was over.


For the Japanese, again, it would be free run in the NEI, along with Siberia, Manchuria,
Mongolia, China, and perhaps a big chunk of Yakutsk, Irkutsk, and how about Lake Baikal,
deepest freshwater lake on the planet ?


In other words, the GEACPS now includes a big chunk of what was the Eastern Soviet Union.
If the USSR is defeated, they will not be able to resist any Japanese offensives in the East.
For the Italians to come in the Soviet Union needed to be collapsing, as France was, before Italy came in...And that wasn't happening.

The fall of the SU would have no effect on China, the DEI, or Manchuria.

Leaving Japan with Siberia and the biggest fresh water lake. Given Japan has half the Pacific, I don't think they need more fish. Japan already has a 500+ year supply of coal in Manchuria, plus an endless supply of timber. Besides Japan is already getting most of the oil produced in the Soviet region, so no gain there either. Little Japanese gain for all their blood & treasure they have to spend.

Sorry Paul, but you are nor making a good economic case for the Japanese fighting the SU.
paulrward wrote:
10 Jun 2020 23:00
Mr. Gardner, you stated :

US, British, and Dutch had as early as March 1941

On exactly what date in March 1941 did the United States Senate approve a treaty binding
the United States to action in the case of war against any of the three powers you mentioned ?
Freewheelin Franklin might have WANTED such an agreement, but without the authorization of
the Senate, it was nothing by Roosevelt ' Wheeler-Dealer ' Hot Air !

I have asked repeatedly on this thread to be shown evidence that the United States had comitted,
AS A GOVERNMENT, to go to war if the NEI were invaded. So far, no evidence has been presented.

For that reason, I think we would all have to concede that it it more than likely that, had Japan
seized the NEI, the United States ( expecially the Roosevelt Administration ! ) would have been
somewhat upset, but that NO WAR WOULD HAVE RESULTED !
What's that old saying...Absence of proof is not proof of absence.

To my knowledge no direct evidence, if it does exist, has been found. However, there is a ton of circumstantial evidence of an FDR promise to support Britain in the Far East.

Britain closed three Burma Road under threat from Japan. Despite no retaliation from the US, Britain reopened it...Why? Certainly not of their own good will.

On Sept 14, 1940, Assisstant Secretary of State recorded in his diary that FDR was going all out to protect British possessions in the Far East, stating
"I now understand that it has been discussed as a matter of high policy that the administration has made up it's mind to deal firmly with Japan and that no steps will be spared and that those steps may even lead to war."

FDR himself stated on October 6, 1940
"This country is ready to pull the trigger if the Japs do anything. I mean we won't stand any nonsense."

In October, 1940, FDR Called up the Naval Reserve, and began rushing supplies & ammunition to the Philippines.

Mackenzie King wrote in his diary dated Sept. 27, 1940 - The United States will not allow Japan to get control of Asia and the Pacific.
Why would he write that?

There is plenty more, but that should suffice to not concede that the US would not go to war over the DEI.


paulrward wrote:
10 Jun 2020 23:00
An active propaganda campaign, set up in advance in the U.S., might have created a problem
for Roosevelt with the liberal wing of his party, and the NAACP in particular, by emphasizing
that the Japanese were merely liberating the oppressed brown people of the Indies from the
racist colonial Dutch.......
This itself might be enough to keep Roosevelt and the U.S. on the
fence.
Dream on...China already had a far better propaganda campaign up and running. Quite effectively I would add.

So, the Quid Pro Quo is this: If Japan and Italy assist Germany in a coordinated action against
the USSR ( Germany and Japan ) and the British in North Africa ( Italy ), then in return they get
large, post war Empires. Quid Pro Quo. This For That.
Quid Pro Quo? Japan get vs the hind end of the USSR.

Well now...That doesn't change things.

You also seem to have forgotten that Germany had it's own designs on the DEI after a Germany victory. They held on to them for some time very late '41 or early '42, before they finally faced facts and granted them to Japan.
paulrward wrote:
10 Jun 2020 23:00
Mr. Gardner, in a very famous science fiction novel from the 1960s, the hero confronts the villain,
and says, " Okay. You need me. I'm for sale. BUY ME ! "

The villain does just that, with a very handsome price.
Yep, and Germany was never willing to pay Japan's asking price.

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Takao
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Re: Japan launches Kantokuen - British DoW?

Post by Takao » 11 Jun 2020 00:10

paulrward wrote:
10 Jun 2020 23:10
Hello All ;

To Mr. Takao :

You stated:
1941 is far too late for the 3 Stooges to start acting like Musketeers.
and
The lack of trust between Germany & Japan precludes them acting like Allies.
Thus, this becomes an "Alien Space Bats" what if.

Mr. Takao, if you go back to my posting, I stated at the end :
I would request that everyone following this thread consider this concept,
and comment on it, not in terms of whether it actually occurred, or could have occurred
based on the personalities and psychologies of the major participants, but rather the
effect IF IT HAD OCCURRED !

Mr. Takao, if you can't get past what historically happened, and consider this as a ' What If ',
then, at the risk of being rude, there is no point your continuing in the discussion of the idea.

However, I would add this note: Historically, when the USSR invaded Poland in 1939 in
concert with the Germans, and then invaded Finland, they were taken off Winston Churchill's
Christmas Card List. Then the Germans invaded Russia, and suddenly they were Winnie's buddy's
again. Diplomacy and War, like Politics and Sex, makes very strange bedfellows.....

Finally, Mr. Takao, you ask the rhetorical question ;
You have to answer the question "Why would Japan join an anti-SU?" before you
ask would, whether and under what conditions.
How about if they see it as the best opportunity to gain control of Asia, and establish
Hirohito as the ruler of the largest empire ( in terms of population ) in the history
of the human race ? Hmmmmmm.....



Respectfully :

Paul R. Ward
Actually, I consider this an "Alien Space Bat" What if...To far divorced from reality and would require Alice Space Bats to come true. Meant only to be wish fulfillment & to stave off boredom.

I post here to at least try, however in vain, to keep it minimally grounded in history.

Further, I was unaware that one had to agree with everything said to participate in a What If.
That is not discussion, but monologuing.

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T. A. Gardner
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Re: Japan launches Kantokuen - British DoW?

Post by T. A. Gardner » 11 Jun 2020 00:50

paulrward wrote:
10 Jun 2020 23:00
Hello All :

In answer to Mr. Gardner's questions :
OK, for the Italians, it would ultimately be that Germany would strip France of most of
it's African posessions, and hand them over to Italy, along with Egypt, Somalia, and
everything else they could pry away from Britain
after the war with Russia was over.
That likely would cause an earlier entry of the US into WW 2. Handing them to Italy would only occur after a campaign to take them by force. The Vichy French armistice would have collapsed had Germany tried. That's why Germany did not try to take them.
For the Japanese, again, it would be free run in the NEI, along with Siberia, Manchuria,
Mongolia, China, and perhaps a big chunk of Yakutsk, Irkutsk, and how about Lake Baikal,
deepest freshwater lake on the planet ?
Invading Russia means having imports end. That means they end up in a three front war.
In other words, the GEACPS now includes a big chunk of what was the Eastern Soviet Union.
If the USSR is defeated, they will not be able to resist any Japanese offensives in the East.

Mr. Gardner, you stated :

US, British, and Dutch had as early as March 1941

On exactly what date in March 1941 did the United States Senate approve a treaty binding
the United States to action in the case of war against any of the three powers you mentioned ?
Freewheelin Franklin might have WANTED such an agreement, but without the authorization of
the Senate, it was nothing by Roosevelt ' Wheeler-Dealer ' Hot Air !
27 April 1941 at a conference in Singapore that I previously gave a link to.
I have asked repeatedly on this thread to be shown evidence that the United States had comitted,
AS A GOVERNMENT, to go to war if the NEI were invaded. So far, no evidence has been presented.
Logical fallacy. It amounts to a false dilemma. That is, Paulward will only accept a treaty, some overt major act, as evidence that the US would go to war. Anything short of that indicating such a position is rejected. In essence it argues that the US regardless of evidence short of some binding, unequivocal treaty would not go to war in Asia.
Yet, he argues at the same time that a Japanese invasion of the DEI-- a peaceful occupation is not possible-- would be ignored by the US and Britain, particularly one that the Dutch puppet government in the Netherlands, which is not recognized by the US or Britain, agreed to. The Dutch puppet government is not the equivalent of the Vichy French. The DEI was clearly aligned with the Dutch government in exile in London and recognized by the US.
The problem here is the scenario presented by Paulward, that Japan can invade the Soviet Union and simultaneously "peacefully occupy" the DEI without any US or British reaction is necessary for his scenario to work. The problem is it defies logic and historical events without any countering evidence.
For that reason, I think we would all have to concede that it it more than likely that, had Japan
seized the NEI, the United States ( expecially the Roosevelt Administration ! ) would have been
somewhat upset, but that NO WAR WOULD HAVE RESULTED !
Now we get a strawman argument. I and others have consistently argued the exact opposite. If the DEI got invaded, the US and Britain would go to war with Japan. Only the Paulward thinks that would not be the case based on nothing but his opinion while demanding exacting proof of the opposite.
In fact, when the Japanese invaded, large numbers of the native peoples of the NEI JOINED the
Japanese ! Initially, the Japanese forces were seen as potential liberators from the tyrannical
Dutch who had treated the native peoples as second class citizens and who were, at this point
in history, even imposing discriminatory policies against the so called ' mixed race ' people who,
until the early 1930s, had been accorded a status equal to Caucasians in the NEI. The Dutch
were NOT popular among the natives of the NEI, and this is shown by how quickly the Dutch
were THROWN OUT of Indonesia after the war !


An irrelevant appeal to consequences. The people in Indonesia are not going to determine what course the US or Britain take. This also would occur after the fact. But, since a resistance movement to the Japanese conquest began almost immediately (one by Amir Sjarifuddin for example) makes it pretty clear that the Japanese invasion wasn't welcomed.
An active propaganda campaign, set up in advance in the U.S., might have created a problem
for Roosevelt with the liberal wing of his party, and the NAACP in particular, by emphasizing
that the Japanese were merely liberating the oppressed brown people of the Indies from the
racist colonial Dutch.......
This itself might be enough to keep Roosevelt and the U.S. on the
fence.


Here's a proposal that comes out of thin air... How does Japan do this? They have no real influence in the US and little or no pull in US media. How are they going to influence liberals, or anyone else, in the US when they have no connections there?
So, the Quid Pro Quo is this: If Japan and Italy assist Germany in a coordinated action against
the USSR ( Germany and Japan ) and the British in North Africa ( Italy ), then in return they get
large, post war Empires. Quid Pro Quo. This For That.
Wishful thinking at best. As I pointed out, Italy cannot make a significant contribution to Germany's invasion of Russia. That's historical fact. The Germans can only make a reasonable contribution to Italy's holding North Africa, and as that ended up a defeat historically, it is likely to here too.
Mr. Gardner, in a very famous science fiction novel from the 1960s, the hero confronts the villain,
and says, " Okay. You need me. I'm for sale. BUY ME ! "

The villain does just that, with a very handsome price.
What does that have to do with anything discussed here?

paulrward
Member
Posts: 444
Joined: 10 Dec 2008 20:14

Re: Japan launches Kantokuen - British DoW?

Post by paulrward » 11 Jun 2020 02:49

Hello All :

I will be going through both Mr. Takao's postings and Mr. Gardner's posting in one single posting.

First, in response to Mr. Takao, he cites numerous actions by the Roosevelt Administration
that could be taken by the Executive Branch. He also cites numerous statements by members
of the Roosevelt Administration in private letters and diaries. Finally, he cites the Prime
Minister of Canada's belief. However, there is not one public utterance by any member
of the United States Senate, who would have to approve a treaty, and certainly no mention
of any speeches or writings by members of the Senate or House of Representatives in which
they endorse the United States going to war against Japan if the NEI were invaded.

And, as for Mr. Mackenzie King, perhaps he had learned something from his dead mother.
The man believed in Spiritualism, and held regular seances to speak to departed friends and
advisors.....

I note you admit that Germany granted the rights to the NEI to Japan in early 1942.
So, what would prevent them from simply granting these rights in early 1941 ? In return
for the Japanese turning Barbarrossa into a two front war for the Soviets ?

To quote you:
Yep, and Germany was never willing to pay Japan's asking price.

Here is the What If: What if they had been willing to pay Japan's asking price ?

To Mr. Gardner :

You make many interesting points, let me try to address them:

As for Vichy France, if the Germans defeat the USSR with Japanese help ( They don't need the
help of the Italians, but having them keep the Med Front quiet is useful enough to pay them some
sort of premium ) then Britain will be left alone. Probably Spain will enter the war on the side
of the Axis, and Hitler, with no interference from a much weakened Britain, can simply instruct
the Puppet Government in Vichy to work out the Administrative changes to transfer Libya and
Tunisia to France. No big deal. To the winners go the spoils....

If the Vichy Armistace collapses, well, Russia has been defeated, a few divisions to occupy the
rest of Vichy, and ALL of France is occupied...

As for the Singapore Conference, this was a conference of Military Types to arrange for the
coordination of defenses if they were all mutually at war. It has NOTHING to do with anything
that the Congress wants. It is much like the Iceland Conference with Churchill. A lot of talk,
and no real commitments in terms of Congressional actions.
I and others have consistently argued the exact opposite. If the DEI got invaded,
the US and Britain would go to war with Japan.

As for the United States going to war:

Germany occupied Austria and Czechoslovakia. The United States did NOT go to war
Italy occupied Ethiopia The United States did NOT go to war
Germany and Italy Intervene in Spain The United States did NOT go to war
Germany invaded Poland The United States did NOT go to war
Germany invaded Denmark and Norway The United States did NOT go to war
Germany invaded Belgium, Holland, and France The United States did NOT go to war
Germany sank an American Destroyer in the Atlantic The United States did NOT go to war
Germany Attacks the USSR. The United States did NOT go to war
Japan attacked the Soviet Union ( Nomonhan ) The United States did NOT go to war
Japan invaded China ( Rape of Nanking ) The United States did NOT go to war
Japan sank an American Warship ( Panay ) The United States did NOT go to war
Japan invaded French IndoChina The United States did NOT go to war

Now, Mr. Gardner you would have us believe that, after this long record of over five years of non
intervention in foreign affairs, that when the Japanese, with the agreement and aquiescence of
the Dutch Government in the Hague, moves in to occupy the NEI, that the United States will
figuratively leap to it's feet, point it's finger at the ceiling, and shout, " THIS MEANS WAR !!!! "

Now, the British would be upset. but as of the summer of 1941, they have not one single battleship
or carrier in the Pacific ( they are all hunting the Bismarck ! ) and what few forces they have
in Malaya will be barely enough to hold Singapore. ( Historically, they WEREN'T enough ! )

The British and the Chinese, despite their best efforts, had been unable to get the United States into
the War. Is there any evidence anywhere that the Congress of the United States would have been
willing to declare war to save the NEI ? After the record I have delineated above, I think that the
evidence is in fact much against it.

You mentioned Amir Sjarifuddin - The man was a Marxist before the war. He became a paid agent of
Dutch Intelligence, receiving money to set up an resistance movement, which was, in fact something
of a bad joke. His organization quickly broke down, leaving Mr. Sjarifuddin in prison for most of the war,
and he was in fact killed by his fellow Indonesians in the fighting against the Dutch Government forces in 1948.


As for " How does Japan carry out a propaganda campaign in the U.S. ? The same way everyone else does:
You hire some newpaper and magazine editors and writers ( under the table payments, in cash ) and they
begin to get articles printed in the media favoring Japan's position. It's very simple, just ask the Chinese
how they do it nowadays.....


Finally, Mr. Garder. the point I was making with my reference to a work of fiction was that the main
thrust of that work was that everyone has a price. Those who say that they cannot be bought have
simply not yet been offered a large enough bribe....

( A sad corollary, also included in the book, was the statement that there was nothing sadder than
a person who had decided to ' sell out ', and who had discovered that no one wanted to buy him...... )


But, I am still interested, Mr. Gardner. In all my researches, I have yet to be able to find any significant
numbers of Pro-War Senators or Congressmen prior to Dec. 7, 1941. Have you, in your research, found
any such group ? If so, I would be very interested.


Respectfully :

Paul R. Ward
Information not shared, is information lost
Voices banned, are voices who cannot share information....

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