Japan launches Kantokuen - British DoW?

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T. A. Gardner
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Re: Japan launches Kantokuen - British DoW?

Post by T. A. Gardner » 11 Jun 2020 06:02

paulrward wrote:
11 Jun 2020 02:49
To Mr. Gardner :

You make many interesting points, let me try to address them:

As for Vichy France, if the Germans defeat the USSR with Japanese help ( They don't need the
help of the Italians, but having them keep the Med Front quiet is useful enough to pay them some
sort of premium ) then Britain will be left alone. Probably Spain will enter the war on the side
of the Axis, and Hitler, with no interference from a much weakened Britain, can simply instruct
the Puppet Government in Vichy to work out the Administrative changes to transfer Libya and
Tunisia to France. No big deal. To the winners go the spoils....
If... That's a mighty big if. To keep the "Med Front quiet" would require Italy remain out of the war. That is something Germany has little influence over. Franco and Spain weren't about to enter the war. Spain was destroyed in their civil war, and Franco killed off upwards of another 250,000 after it ended to crush the opposition. The economy was in ruins. Franco was no idiot. He stayed out of the war because he knew it was a losing proposition for Spain to get into it.
If the Vichy Armistace collapses, well, Russia has been defeated, a few divisions to occupy the
rest of Vichy, and ALL of France is occupied...
You were talking the Germans moving against the Vichy far earlier than after a defeat of the Soviet Union.

As for the Singapore Conference, this was a conference of Military Types to arrange for the
coordination of defenses if they were all mutually at war. It has NOTHING to do with anything
that the Congress wants. It is much like the Iceland Conference with Churchill. A lot of talk,
and no real commitments in terms of Congressional actions.
As for the United States going to war:

Germany occupied Austria and Czechoslovakia. The United States did NOT go to war
Italy occupied Ethiopia The United States did NOT go to war
Germany and Italy Intervene in Spain The United States did NOT go to war
Germany invaded Poland The United States did NOT go to war
Germany invaded Denmark and Norway The United States did NOT go to war
Germany invaded Belgium, Holland, and France The United States did NOT go to war
Germany sank an American Destroyer in the Atlantic The United States did NOT go to war
Germany Attacks the USSR. The United States did NOT go to war
Japan attacked the Soviet Union ( Nomonhan ) The United States did NOT go to war
Japan invaded China ( Rape of Nanking ) The United States did NOT go to war
Japan sank an American Warship ( Panay ) The United States did NOT go to war
Japan invaded French IndoChina The United States did NOT go to war

Now, Mr. Gardner you would have us believe that, after this long record of over five years of non
intervention in foreign affairs, that when the Japanese, with the agreement and aquiescence of
the Dutch Government in the Hague, moves in to occupy the NEI, that the United States will
figuratively leap to it's feet, point it's finger at the ceiling, and shout, " THIS MEANS WAR !!!! "
First, you give an argument ad populum. By your reasoning, I it could be argued that the US after Pearl Harbor would not go to war with Japan. That is clearly an absurd proposition.
The NSB government in the Hague has no control over the DEI, the Dutch government in exile does. What happens when the Dutch exile government decides to fight and declares war on Japan rather than allow an occupation? The Dutch in the DEI will fight and now Japan is at war with the Dutch.
It isn't much of a stretch that the British would declare war in support of such a move. That in turn is almost certain to bring the US into the war as well.
Now, the British would be upset. but as of the summer of 1941, they have not one single battleship
or carrier in the Pacific ( they are all hunting the Bismarck ! ) and what few forces they have
in Malaya will be barely enough to hold Singapore. ( Historically, they WEREN'T enough ! )
The British would not accept such a move as it threatens Australia and Malaysia. If the Dutch fight, and that is pretty much a certainty, then Britain will support them because they need the government in exile on their side in Europe and elsewhere.
The British and the Chinese, despite their best efforts, had been unable to get the United States into
the War. Is there any evidence anywhere that the Congress of the United States would have been
willing to declare war to save the NEI ? After the record I have delineated above, I think that the
evidence is in fact much against it.
The US was selling / lending both massive amounts of war materials, The US had long frozen Japanese assets in the US and was cutting off all trade. I can see Queen Willena addressing Congress (she did in 1942) and getting the same standing ovation, followed by a declaration of war on Japan because of Japanese aggression in the DEI.
Japan can't put a fig leaf on that and Germany cannot make the forces in the DEI lay down their arms and let the Japanese occupy the colony if the Queen has told her army to resist.
You mentioned Amir Sjarifuddin - The man was a Marxist before the war. He became a paid agent of
Dutch Intelligence, receiving money to set up an resistance movement, which was, in fact something
of a bad joke. His organization quickly broke down, leaving Mr. Sjarifuddin in prison for most of the war,
and he was in fact killed by his fellow Indonesians in the fighting against the Dutch Government forces in 1948.
So? It shows that there was resistance to the Japanese occupation and it was ongoing.
As for " How does Japan carry out a propaganda campaign in the U.S. ? The same way everyone else does:
You hire some newpaper and magazine editors and writers ( under the table payments, in cash ) and they
begin to get articles printed in the media favoring Japan's position. It's very simple, just ask the Chinese
how they do it nowadays.....
With what? Their assets are frozen in the US.
Finally, Mr. Garder. the point I was making with my reference to a work of fiction was that the main
thrust of that work was that everyone has a price. Those who say that they cannot be bought have
simply not yet been offered a large enough bribe....
And Japan has neither the means, persons, or connections to do it in the US.

But, I am still interested, Mr. Gardner. In all my researches, I have yet to be able to find any significant
numbers of Pro-War Senators or Congressmen prior to Dec. 7, 1941. Have you, in your research, found
any such group ? If so, I would be very interested.


Respectfully :

Paul R. Ward
A Fortune magazine poll in June 1941 asked the question whether America was already in the war or not for all practical purposes. 79.5% said yes, 10.9 no, and 9.6 gave no opinion. By mid 1941, it is pretty clear the American public was already believing the nation was de facto at war.

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Re: Japan launches Kantokuen - British DoW?

Post by paulrward » 11 Jun 2020 21:34

Hello All :

To Mr. Gardner :

You state:
First, you give an argument ad populum. By your reasoning, I it could be argued
that the US after Pearl Harbor would not go to war with Japan. That is clearly an absurd
proposition.
Obviously. However, did the United States go to war when the Japanese sank the Panay, or the Germans
the Reuben James ? No. In fact, the attack on Pearl Harbor was, like September 9-11, a game changer in
American political opinion. Up until that point, the average American considered what was happening on
the other side of the Pacific, or the Atlantic for that matter, as something that was happening to other
people, and not our problem. After Pearl Harbor, Japan became an existential threat to the United States,
and had to be destroyed.

You further state :
A Fortune magazine poll in June 1941 asked the question whether America was already
in the war or not for all practical purposes. 79.5% said yes, 10.9 no, and 9.6 gave no opinion.
By mid 1941, it is pretty clear the American public was already believing the nation was de facto
at war.
Mr. Gardner, this posting was delayed while I did some research into a subject of which I was unaware.
In fact, according to a recent book, Bureau of Spies, by Steve Usdin both the U.S. News media and
the various polling corporations had been heavily infiltrated by the British Secret Intelligence Service ( BSIS )
and the British Security Coordination ( BSC ). According to his work, as well as the book, Lindbergh vs. Roosevelt: The Rivalry That Divided America, by James P. Duffy, Gallup, Hadley Cantril, Market Analysts, Inc, and Roper were ALL heavily infiltrated by British Intelligence, and were being used to publish falsified polling
data to promote British interests.

In fact, at the 1941 annual Congress of Industrial Organizations ( CIO ) meeting, a ' poll ' was taken of the
members of the United Mine Workers, which indicated that some 96 % supported intervention in the war in
Europe. This was a surprise to John L. Lewis, president of the UMW, who knew how many of his members
were of irish descent, and who hated the British. The poll, was, of course, a fraud. but when published,
it became accepted as fact.

As James Duffy notes,
Temp Poll.jpg

So, Mr. Gardner, we have to take careful look at any so called polling results from 1940-1945, as they may in
fact be nothing but disinformation from the British Government....


You go on to state :
....... What happens when the Dutch exile government decides to fight and declares
war on Japan rather than allow an occupation? The Dutch in the DEI will fight and now Japan
is at war with the Dutch.
It isn't much of a stretch that the British would declare war in support of such a move. That in
turn is almost certain to bring the US into the war as well.
***************************
The British would not accept such a move as it threatens Australia and Malaysia. If the Dutch
fight, and that is pretty much a certainty, then Britain will support them because they need
the government in exile on their side in Europe and elsewhere.

What happens if the Dutch decide to fight? Well, historically, the NEI resisted for less than ten weeks,
starting in January of 1942, and ending in the beginning of March. And this was AFTER the U.S. had
sent them aircraft and weapons. So, Japan is at war with the Dutch for ten weeks. During that time, what
exactly can the British do? They have no effective Pacific fleet, no air force capable of offensive action in
Malaya, and very few good troops. Historically they were incapable of holding onto Singapore, much less
threatening Japan. Which means that somehow, Winnie has to figure out how to get Freewheelin Franklin
into the war so the Britain can fight to the last American....

Now, are you really sure the the United States is ready for war ? Remember, the renewal of the Draft
Act passed the House of Representatives on August 12, 1941, by exactly ONE VOTE ! And, the Senate and
House added an amendment restricting the deployment of U.S. Troops to the Western Hemisphere, or U.S.
Territories. ( Sounds like the Congress was a bunch of real War Mongers, doesn't it ? ) And remember,
when Roosevelt campaigned against Willkie, he stated, " I have said it before, and I will say it again, Your
sons will NOT be sent to fight in foreign wars !"


In fact, the 1940 Democratic Party Platform stated :
The American people are determined that war, raging in Europe, Asia and Africa,
shall not come to America.

We will not participate in foreign wars, and we will not send our army, naval or air forces
to fight in foreign lands outside of the Americas, except in case of attack
. We favor and
shall rigorously enforce and defend the Monroe Doctrine.
The direction and aim of our foreign policy has been, and will continue to be, the security
and defense of our own land
and the maintenance of its peace.

Mr. Gardner, do you see any mention of the Netherlands Indies in that Platform ? I don't. And what
do you think would have happened if the Japanese invaded the NEI on July 1, 1941. Suddenly, Roosevelt
is trying to simultaneously get the Draft renewed while at the same time trying to get a bill through Congress
to go to war against Japan ! How well do you think that will work, when Congressmen and Senators begin
receiving letters from terrified mothers saying, " If you vote to draft my son to fight in Asia, you will never
get MY VOTE again ! "


Mr. Gardner, if the Japanese invaded the NEI, the British were incapable of fighting, due to lack of resources,
and the United States was incapable of fighting, due to lack of WILL ! This was the entire reason that
Winnie tried to dragoon Franklin into committing to going to war in the Pacific in the first place ! He thought
that it would provide him with the ally he needed to protect the Empire from Japan, while at the same time
it would be a back door to get the U.S. into the war in Europe.


The entire negotiation was two guys saying, " Well, I'LL go if YOU go first ! " Mr. Gardner, does this look
familiar ?
temp alphose.jpg

So, let us look at the game board again, from a rational perspective: July 1, 1941 Japanese invade the NEI,
Churchill calls Roosevelt, who tells him that without Congressional approval, there is nothing he can do.
The Isolationists start filibustering the Draft Renewal Bill, stalling it day after day, until the middle of
September, by which time the Japanese have ended the fighting, and the NEI is now the JEI. In London,
Queen Wilhelmina is furious, but also impotent, as she is supported financially solely by the British Government,
and her puppet regime in exile exists at Churchill's pleasure.

Without the U.S. going to war, Churchill decides that the British already have enough on their plate. The
British will NOT go to war against the Japanese at this time, preferring to marshal their forces. The Repulse,
Prince of Wales, and Indomitable will be sent to the Pacific, and all Roosevelt can do is offer the transfer of
the Washington, North Carolina and Ranger when they are finally ready for service......

In the NEI, Japanese officers approach their opposite numbers in the Dutch Army under white Parley flags,
and make the following offer: Surrender without fighting or destroying any oil assets, and you and your
men will receive good treatment, Oppose us, and you will be killed, and your families will be hunted down
and executed as well.

For the Dutch in the NEI, the choice is simple: They have been abandoned, and they can live, or die. Most
choose to go with the flow, and surrender. The oil riches of the Indies pass into the hands of the Japanese.

The British and Australians continue to bolster their own defenses in the Pacific, and the United States takes
the equipment and aircraft they were going to send to the NEI and sends them to the Phillppines instead,
where MacArthur is working desperately to build up his forces.

At the same time, the Japanese Army begins it's SitzKrieg in Siberia, making to-and -fro marches, bombing
Vladivostock and the Trans Siberian Railway, and in general doing everything they can do to prevent the Soviets
from transferring any troops to the Moscow Front.


Back in the United States, the Japanese have been running an operation for nearly two years. The Pan Pacific
Peace and Prosperity League
is promoting harmony, and quietly paying off newspaper reporters, editors, and
radio commentators in return for favorable articles. Letters to the editor are being printed extolling the
virtues of the United States getting in at the ground floor of the Greater East Asia Co Prosperity Sphere.

And in Mexico City, lots of Japanese Gold is being exchanged for Pesos, which are traded for greenback dollars. Which are then being paid, quietly, to Senators and Congressmen who were willing to work to stall the Draft Bill for the two months necessary to ensure the NEI would be occupied with no resistance from the U.S.

The policy of sending young Japanese men and attractive young Japanese girls overseas to study at American
Universities is beginning to pay off......

Respectfully :

Paul R. Ward
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Tom from Cornwall
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Re: Japan launches Kantokuen - British DoW?

Post by Tom from Cornwall » 12 Jun 2020 20:28

Hi,

I thought this document might be of interest - from the British ambassador in Washington to the British Foreign Secretary on 4 December 1941:
Lord Halifax to Anthony Eden
(Premier Papers, 3/156/5)

4 December 1941
Most Immediate, Most Secret
Received 11 a.m.

I saw the President with Under-Secretary of State [Sumner Welles], this evening and read to him your telegram. The President agrees with your second paragraph that the first two hypotheses are in practice indistinguishable. Before giving definite reply on your suggestion of simultaneous warning, he wished to be clear on the following points.
Do you mean by the words ‘if she uses Indo-China as a base for further aggression, some actual act of jumping off by Japan, or building up of a base which clearly must be intended for future aggression.
2. I said that I read your telegram to mean the first, although it was plain that building up of a base would pro tanto diminish the Japanese dependence on vulnerable supply lines.
The President was much alive to this, but I think his own mind leant in favour of making a warning if given conditional on actual jumping off.
3. The point also arose in the discussion whether your wording ‘as a base for further aggression’ was or was not intended to cover the hypothesis of intensified attack on Burma Road from Thailand (Siam).
The President, however, said that he thought the point was academic as concentration of troops in southern Thailand could hardly be intended for attack on the Burma Road by land, except through Thailand, in which case the issue would be clear. The only practicable alternative in his view would be for the Japanese to bomb Rangoon, when again the issue would be clear.
4. The President assented to the interpretation of support as recorded in paragraph of my telegram No. 5519 as meaning armed support. Character of this armed support must be decided by the Staffs.
5. In the circumstances of hypothesis C, the President indicated assent to our putting Kra Isthmus plan into operation in this eventuality, and I have no doubt in the this case you can count of armed support of the United States.
6. I read the President your third paragraph, to which he gave assent.
In this connection, he said their information led them to think it probable that the Japanese attacks might be directed against the Netherlands East Indies, particularly against some island north of Sumatra.
He made comment on this that any action of this kind would prove more easy of presentation to United States public opinion on the ground of threat to the Philippines by encirclement.

7. He recognized the force of your paragraphs 4 and 5 concerning the proposed guarantee to Thailand and the intimation at the present moment to

[p.1560]

the Thai Prime Minister of our intention. He though, however, that you might consider two other suggestions. The first, that we should make private communication to Thailand that we had no intention of invading them, but that if the Japanese with or without Thailand’s agreement went in, we should immediately do the same in our own self-defence.
Second, that in view of the Japanese inspired propaganda intimating that we intended to invade Thailand, you might make public statement now to the effect that His Majesty’s Government had no intention of committing aggression against Thailand and were only concerned to see her sovereignty and independence preserved.
I thought the discussion of a Japanese move against the Dutch East Indies and the description by the President of how that would appear to US public opinion might be of interest.

Regards

Tom

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Re: Japan launches Kantokuen - British DoW?

Post by TheMarcksPlan » 12 Jun 2020 22:17

paulrward wrote:This would mean that, starting in early 1941, the Japanese and Germans have sit down talks
If the POD is German-Japanese strategic collaboration then the scenarios you spin out are innovative and taught me some new things, but I haven't waded into this aspect of the discussion because German-Japanese strategic collaboration seems like a very large leap from OTL.

IMO getting Japan to stab Russia in the back happens with less departure from OTL if Germany takes the SU seriously rather than assuming a quick defeat of the world's largest country and army.

Why?

Germany (1) uses its levers of power to channel Japan's energies towards confrontation with Russia rather than with the U.S., and (2) creates conditions more conducive to Japan attacking the SU.

(1) involves things like opposing Japanese occupation of French Indochina, not signing the Tripartite Pact and/or conditioning Germany's signature on Japan attacking the SU, conditioning Japanese access to German patents on anti-Soviet war.

(2) involves a more successful Barbarossa along the lines I have laid out in my ATL's.


The advantage of my scenario is that it involves only one great power (Germany) changing its behavior, and doing so entirely based on its own rational interest.

The disadvantage of my scenario is the extent to which it relies on my judgment that Germany could have (should have) launched a better Barbarossa.

Another of my premises is that Germany should have aimed its alliance-building at the USSR instead of the USA. I doubt many would disagree with that judgment but maybe so. Hitler did everything in his power to have Japan pick a fight with the USA but very little to prod them towards fighting the SU. This was a catastrophic mistake that he's unlikely to make had he truly understood the SU's might.

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Re: Japan launches Kantokuen - British DoW?

Post by TheMarcksPlan » 12 Jun 2020 22:28

Tom from Cornwall wrote:6. I read the President your third paragraph, to which he gave assent.
In this connection, he said their information led them to think it probable that the Japanese attacks might be directed against the Netherlands East Indies, particularly against some island north of Sumatra.
He made comment on this that any action of this kind would prove more easy of presentation to United States public opinion on the ground of threat to the Philippines by encirclement.
Mr. Ward earlier asked for direct evidence of U.S. intent to enter the war upon a DEI attack and this is the closest thing yet provided, IMO. Thanks, Tom.

I said upthread that "of course" invasion of the DEI means war with UK/US but Mr. Ward makes a strong argument that gives me pause.

Nonetheless, the issue is basically a political hypo - a sort of hypothetical punditry about vote-whipping in the ATL Senate.
FDR was the greatest politician of his era; if he genuinely believed he'd get a DoW upon Japanese invasion of the DEI then I'm inclined to believe him.
Was he being genuine, though, or is he being wishful and trying to reassure a concerned friend? Maybe a little of all the above?

The other feasibility constraint that I'd like to see Mr. Ward address is whether, as a matter of Japanese practice/doctrine, the IJA/N would have countenanced projecting armies and fleets into a theater while two potential foes sat astride their communications. IIRC Japanese planners thought attacking America necessary because the Philippines constituted a potential dagger in the flank of the Southern Resource Area. Here, both flanks of the move south are wide open to sudden Anglo-American intervention.

I can acknowledge Mr. Ward's good argumentation for why, in fact, American and Britain wouldn't have thrust the dagger in the IJN's flanks.
Nonetheless, the Japanese didn't have that kind of political insight.

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Re: Japan launches Kantokuen - British DoW?

Post by T. A. Gardner » 13 Jun 2020 00:36

Well, let's take a second and assume Paulward's scenario does occur. Japan invades, hostilely, the DEI since it is clearly obvious that a peaceful occupation is going to be had. The NSB government in the Hague has zero control over the DEI so what they say or do is irrelevant. Neither they or their German puppet masters have any ability or means to influence events in the DEI.
The DEI falls and is occupied, including the Celebes and Borneo.

Britain either declares war but does nothing except reinforce their positions in Asia or they don't but still reinforce their positions in Asia.

The US doesn't declare war as Paulward expounds. But, the alarm at the Japanese occupation does speed up and even increases the forces the US is pushing into the PI. The Philippine army has 10 divisions being equipped and trained in various states of readiness but by mid 1942 these are mostly in service with their training finished or finishing. The Philippine Division is at that point a full triangular division on standard US equipment and organization. There are two light tank battalions, a medium tank battalion, three tank destroyer battalions, about half-a-dozen separate artillery battalions, several engineer battalions, etc., all in the PI by roughly mid-1942. The USAAF is up to around 300 to 400 aircraft, including much better models than they had historically. There are more airfields, radar, and coast defenses including mobile 155mm gun batteries that now cover historical Japanese landing beaches. There is also a possibility that the US Army sends a second National Guard infantry division there.
The point of all that is, that now the PI has become militarily strong enough that Japan has no means to invade and take it.

The US and Britain have continued to end all exports to Japan who still has serious shortages of many strategic materials and limited access to overseas ports. The US invoking the Hemispheric Defense Act has blocked all Japanese trade in the Americas, to include all of Central and South America on the basis they are a combatant nation.
Britain (assuming they are not actually at war) is stopping and interning any Japanese vessels headed to Europe. Japan objects strenuously but their only alternative is to go to war with Britain.

In China, the US is dumping tens of millions in new equipment and material to strengthen the Chinese who are still fighting Japan.

Japan's army has 60 + divisions embroiled in a war of attrition with the Soviets while the rest of their land forces are split between an occupation of the DEI and fighting the Chinese. They are stretched very thin.

The Burma Road is still open, the US has set up aircraft assembly factories in Australia and Rangoon (civilian operated on paper) and massive amounts of new aircraft are flowing into the region. The US has occupied New Caledonia as they did historically and has a division on it. Wake now has a full Marine defense battalion with an infantry company or battalion as well. There are two fighter and two dive bomber squadrons, along with a patrol squadron or two, and the island has radar etc. Another position Japan can no longer take. Guam likely is reinforced to a point it is untakable.
So, Japan is now facing defeat in a Pacific War right from the start as the US has grown too strong to take on.

Worse for Japan, they are in a war of attrition on land in Russia they can't afford to fight, while in China things are getting equally bad as more and more US aid builds the Chinese to a point they have superiority in the air and on land. Even if the Germans win in Russia, and are able to help Japan negotiate a peace as well, the Japanese economy is hit big time and they still have the problem of China while the US and Britain are in no mood to allow Japan to continue to occupy the DEI either. Japan can't get their trade back and is looking at an endless war in China that is increasingly costly to them.

Sure, the Germans got something but Japan got kicked to the curb and got essentially little or nothing out of this.

Also, there's the question of what happens if and when the US enters the war v. Germany? I'm sure the Germans will demand Japan declare on the US and let's say it's now mid 42-- Japan is absolutely hit if that happens. The US is too strong now to take out like they did historically, and it's just another front they have no troops to use on while their navy is now in a weaker position compared to the US.

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Re: Japan launches Kantokuen - British DoW?

Post by paulrward » 13 Jun 2020 04:26

Hello All:

What a lot of excellent points. I will be addressing them in sort of a chaotic order:

In Mr. TomfromCornwall's posting, he shows what is in effect a report on the conversations between
the Roosevelt and Lord Halifax. Again and again he quotes Roosevelt's feelings and intentions, but
does not mention anything about the United States Congress. Also, this conversation took place just
three days before Pearl Harbor, when it was obvious something was going on, and, after six months
of embargo, the Japanese were getting nasty.

If we backtrack to July 1, 1941, things were different. The Embargo had just gone into effect, and
Japan was not yet so desperate for oil. In other words, the crisis had not yet developed. And, if the
Japanese take the NEI, there will be no crisis. Within six months, historically, the Japanese had over
90% of the oil industry back up and running, and it was nearly 100% by the middle of 1943. So, no
oil shortage, no angry Japan, perhaps .... no war....



Mr. TheMarcksPlan stated :
........Germany should have aimed its alliance-building at the USSR instead of the USA.
I doubt many would disagree with that judgment but maybe so. Hitler did everything in
his power to have Japan pick a fight with the USA but very little to prod them towards
fighting the SU. This was a catastrophic mistake that he's unlikely to make had he truly
understood the SU's might.

A greater truth has never been written on this forum. This was the fundamental misake that Hitler
made: He underestimated his opponent. After all, Poland went down in three weeks, France in
two months, and he had Britain badly battered by the end of the summer of 1940. He underestimated
the ability of Britain with U.S. aid to spring back to life, and he thoroughly underestimated the ability
of the USSR to trade land for time. And finally, and most important, he utterly and completely
underestimated the Industrial Capability and Resources of the United States, which, once they
had joined the Allies, made the Allies virtually invincible....

If Hitler doesn't make those mistakes, it is a totally new war.....

Mr. TheMarcksPlan also wrote :
,,,,,,,,the issue is basically a political hypo - a sort of hypothetical punditry
about vote-whipping in the ATL Senate.
.......FDR was the greatest politician of his era; if he genuinely believed he'd get a DoW
upon Japanese invasion of the DEI then I'm inclined to believe him.
Was he being genuine, though, or is he being wishful and trying to reassure a concerned
friend? Maybe a little of all the above?
FDR was a master politician, but even he couldn't work miracles. He failed to stack the Supreme
Court, failed in his effort to get the NRA established, and failed in his effort to practically disband
the U.S. Army and have it rolled into the CCC ! And, by 1941, his health was starting to fail.

Could FDR have convinced a reluctant U.S. public to get involved in a Pacific War over the NEI ?
Possibly.... but I really have to think, based on the timing, if the Japanese had gone for the
NEI in the summer of 1941, while the whole Draft Re Authorization thing was going on, and
the U.S. was also imposing a trade Embargo on Japan, it might have been a bridge too far.
And, if Roosevelt had failed to get us into the war in the summer of 1941, barring a Pearl Harbor
moment, would he have been able to do it at a later date, when he was even sicker ?
The other feasibility constraint that I'd like to see Mr. Ward address is whether,
as a matter of Japanese practice/doctrine, the IJA/N would have countenanced
projecting armies and fleets into a theater while two potential foes sat astride their
communications. IIRC Japanese planners thought attacking America necessary because
the Philippines constituted a potential dagger in the flank of the Southern Resource
Area. Here, both flanks of the move south are wide open to sudden Anglo-American
intervention.

Mr. TheMarcksPlan, as you point out, it was possible that Britain and the U.S. wouldn't have thrust
the Dagger into Japan. But, I want to point out, they also DIDN'T HAVE a dagger to thrust ! The
USN's Asiatic Fleet was a joke ( three or four cruisers, a dozen four piper destroyers, and two dozen
submarines, about half of which were old enough to vote....) The Royal Navy's Pacific Fleet was no
better, Australia had five cruisers, and the Dutch had another five. So, we have a total of about
20 cruisers, some dating from WW1 or the early 20s, with no battleships, no aircraft carriers, and
no real at-sea logistical support.

All you have to do is look at what happened to the ABDA fleet in the first four months of the war, when
the Allies had no choice but to fight, and you would have to ask, ' Would the Allies CHOOSE to fight under
such conditions, knowing they would likely lose ? '
I don't think so. I have a feeling that the naval chiefs
of Britain and the U.S. would say to their prospective leaders, " We can put up a fight to support our
ground forces in our colonies, but offensive action is just beyond our capabilities at this time...."

Which means that Japan takes the NEI by default. Under the circumstances, the Dutch fleet might head
for Singapore, and allow itself to be interned pending it's rejoining the Free Dutch Navy. And that's about
it.
Nonetheless, the Japanese didn't have that kind of political insight.

To quote a Jedi Master, " And that is WHY you FAIL ! "


To Mr Gardner: Your posting, # 66, is excellent, and has only a few points that I disagree with. I will
enumerate:

First, I agree with everything you say about Britain and especially the U.S. reinforcing their Pacific
Colonies. However, the U.S. had committed to granting Independence to the Philppines by 1944.
Under the circumstances, then, if the Japanese did NOT attack the Philippines, sometime in the
1944-1946 timeframe the U.S. would have started withdrawing it's troops ( remember, the Congress
had banned stationing U.S. troops overseas except in U.S. possessions ) and by about 1947, an
Independant Philippines would have been looking around for allies. What does anyone want to
bet that the Japanese might have extended an invitation for them to join as a trading partner in
the GEACPS ?

You state :
In China, the US is dumping tens of millions in new equipment and material
to strengthen the Chinese who are still fighting Japan.
The Burma Road is still open, the US has set up aircraft assembly factories in
Australia and Rangoon

First, the Burma road was over 700 miles of narrow, one and half lane dirt road that was impassible
in the monsoon season, and was NEVER capable to supporting the Chinese Army. The U.S. may set
up aircraft factories, but eventually, the taxpayers are going to start asking, ' How much is this going
to cost ? ' With the U.S, not involved in an actual war, Congress might be under some pressure to
keep costs down by throwing the Chinese to a Japanese wolf...


.......Worse for Japan, they are in a war of attrition on land in Russia ..........
Even if the Germans win in Russia, and are able to help Japan negotiate a peace as well
.......... Japan can't get their trade back and is looking at an endless war in China that
is increasingly costly to them.
Sure, the Germans got something but Japan got kicked to the curb and got essentially
little or nothing out of this.

Okay, first, there will NOT be a ' negotiated peace ' with Russia. With the Japanese pitching in
to block the Pacific Lend Lease, and keeping the USSR from transferring over 100,000 troops to the
Moscow Front, in early 1942, the Soviets would collapse. That means they are driven back to the
Urals, cut off from their oil, cut off from their wheat basket, and basically driven into submission.

In the East, the Japanese now face a Soviet Army that cannot move it's tanks or artillery, and
has no aircraft in the air. At this point, the Japanese are fighting what is essentially a nineteenth
century Russian Army, and they quickly overwhelm it, after which they simply take ANYTHING they
want in the East. The Japanese get to draw the new border anywhere they choose, and the Russians
simply retreat behind it.

This frees up the Japanese Army to go back and have fun in China.


As for trade. With the NEI in their grasp, they have over 5 millions tons of oil per year. Plus Rubber,
and tin, tungsten, and iron from French IndoChina. Borneo is also rich in Aluminum, and has gold,
diamonds, and copper. Trade with the Philippines would get them Timber. The southern part
of IndoChina is a rice-bowl, and could be exploited. In effect, aquiring the NEI and IndoChina
CREATES the GEACPS, and makes it a going concern. By 1945, trade with the West would be
irrelevant.

And with all these raw materials, and a motivated Army, it is likely that, within a few more years,
Chiang Kai Shek will be sitting in exile in London, right next to Queen Wilhelmina.....

Also, there's the question of what happens if and when the US enters the
war v. Germany?

That's a really good question. With the USSR out of business, that means no endless supply of
muzhiks to send into the meat grinder against Germany. And, since Freewheelin Franklin is not
running again as war time president in 1944, that means that maybe, just maybe, there is someone
else in the White House in 1945.

To put it simply, if the Hitler is smart enough to see beyond the end of his prepuce, he will figure
out that, ' If I don't antagonize the Americans, they won't get involved in the War, and with Russia
now a part of the Greater Reich, and Britain on the ropes, that means I can bully Winston into a
negotiated peace. '




And that is my worst nightmare.

Respectfully :

Paul R. Ward
Information not shared, is information lost
Voices banned, are voices who cannot share information....

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Re: Japan launches Kantokuen - British DoW?

Post by TheMarcksPlan » 13 Jun 2020 09:45

paulrward wrote:Could FDR have convinced a reluctant U.S. public to get involved in a Pacific War over the NEI ?
Possibly....
That "possibly" is the nub of the problem for me. If even you think there's a possibility of a war here, how much more would have the Japanese? Does anyone have primary docs on this point? (i.e. whether Japan expected a U.S. DoW upon their invasion of DEI). It seems they did so expect.

And there's the issue of a British DoW.
I can't imagine the British sitting around while Singapore is encircled. The Singapore Strait is only 4-5 miles wide. Japan taking Sumatra means Singapore is untenable whenever the Japanese decide.

Upthread Tom provided internal British discussion that Japanese possession of the Kra isthmus didn't endanger their core strategic assets. Sumatra is a whole different story, isn't it?
T.A. Gardner wrote:The USAAF is up to around 300 to 400 aircraft, including much better models than they had historically. There are more airfields, radar, and coast defenses including mobile 155mm gun batteries that now cover historical Japanese landing beaches. There is also a possibility that the US Army sends a second National Guard infantry division there.
The point of all that is, that now the PI has become militarily strong enough that Japan has no means to invade and take it.
You're not taking seriously the scenario sketched here after Japanese possession of DEI.

The Philippine Archipelago is ~1,000 miles long - same as the U.S. East Coast from Boston to Florida. 3-400 aircraft and ten provincial divisions are not sufficient to render that vast expanse and its 7,641 islands impregnable. From Borneo, Celebes, Paulau, and Formosa the Japanese can attack anywhere they want, concentrating more carrier-based aircraft at one point than the U.S. has across the entire archipelago (plus land-based support as in OTL). Between Hawaii and the PI are thousands of miles covered by Japanese planes and ships in the South Seas Mandate. And the U.S. had no intent to rush the Pacific Fleet across these defenses to protect the PI, as you surely know.

So the PI are cut off logistically and, though containing strong forces, cannot prevent Japanese lodgment somewhere in the chain.

The situation is a lot like '44-45 with the sides switched. It'll be a bloodier campaign but it ends in Japanese victory.
T.A. Gardner wrote:Worse for Japan, they are in a war of attrition on land in Russia they can't afford to fight, while in China things are getting equally bad as more and more US aid builds the Chinese to a point they have superiority in the air and on land. Even if the Germans win in Russia, and are able to help Japan negotiate a peace as well, the Japanese economy is hit big time and they still have the problem of China while the US and Britain are in no mood to allow Japan to continue to occupy the DEI either. Japan can't get their trade back and is looking at an endless war in China that is increasingly costly to them.
These are generalities marching toward your preferred conclusion heedless of detailed analysis.

What deleterious impact on the Japanese economy does war with Russia have?

Why would Chinese armies suddenly demonstrate offensive potential they never had OTL?

Even if Chiang retakes some cities in '41-'42, what's the strategic effect? Nothing. It just escalates Nationalist-Communist fighting in the recaptured areas.

In the longer term, with Russia out of the picture by '43, Kwantung Army deploys for an earlier Ichi-Go and during '44 Changsha and Chengdu are likely conquered. The Nationalist regime would lose all perceptions of legitimacy and cease to be relevant.

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Re: Japan launches Kantokuen - British DoW?

Post by Carl Schwamberger » 13 Jun 2020 12:42

paulrward wrote:
13 Jun 2020 04:26
...

As for trade. With the NEI in their grasp, they have over 5 millions tons of oil per year. Plus Rubber,
and tin, tungsten, and iron from French IndoChina. Borneo is also rich in Aluminum, and has gold,
diamonds, and copper. Trade with the Philippines would get them Timber. The southern part
of IndoChina is a rice-bowl, and could be exploited. In effect, aquiring the NEI and IndoChina
CREATES the GEACPS, and makes it a going concern. By 1945, trade with the West would be
irrelevant. ...
In 1940 Japans ports were serviced by a cargo fleet amounting to a bit over 11,000,000 GRT. Japans flagged fleet amounted to a bit over 5,000,000 GRT. The balance was denied Japans use by the embargos. Understanding this cargo shipping shortfall is essential for understanding Japans economic position in the Aurtum of 1941, and the problem of prosecuting the war after the assorted conquests were completed in the Spring of 1942. (John Ellis 'Brute Force').

This denial of cargo shipping to the Japan trade served the embargo plan, but it also provided cargo shipping for Anglo US use, filling in for a portion of the losses in the European war. In that there is a incentive for Brits (who controlled the bulk of the worlds cargo fleet) to reduce shipping contracts to Japan in simple self interest.

Bottom line is this near 50% shortfall in cargo ship capacity was another crippling factor in Japans war effort 1941-1943. Possession of the any colonial resources is neither a panacea nor very practical with out the ability to move 30, 40, or 50 % of requirements.

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Re: Japan launches Kantokuen - British DoW?

Post by Tom from Cornwall » 13 Jun 2020 14:06

Carl Schwamberger wrote:
13 Jun 2020 12:42

This denial of cargo shipping to the Japan trade served the embargo plan, but it also provided cargo shipping for Anglo US use, filling in for a portion of the losses in the European war. In that there is a incentive for Brits (who controlled the bulk of the worlds cargo fleet) to reduce shipping contracts to Japan in simple self interest.
Carl,

That's interesting. Are you saying that in 1941 some British shipping was being used to ship cargo to Japan? I certainly didn't know that - I'll have to have a look and see whether I can find out what sort of scale of shipping tonnage was involved.

Regards

Tom

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Re: Japan launches Kantokuen - British DoW?

Post by Carl Schwamberger » 13 Jun 2020 15:53

Tom from Cornwall wrote:
13 Jun 2020 14:06
Carl Schwamberger wrote:
13 Jun 2020 12:42

This denial of cargo shipping to the Japan trade served the embargo plan, but it also provided cargo shipping for Anglo US use, filling in for a portion of the losses in the European war. In that there is a incentive for Brits (who controlled the bulk of the worlds cargo fleet) to reduce shipping contracts to Japan in simple self interest.
Carl,

That's interesting. Are you saying that in 1941 some British shipping was being used to ship cargo to Japan? I certainly didn't know that - I'll have to have a look and see whether I can find out what sort of scale of shipping tonnage was involved.

Regards

Tom
Yes, into 1941 some Brit controlled cargo shipping was contracted to ship goods to and from Japan. Britain still had trade with Japan. For both them & the US that trade had grown since 1937 as trade formerly done with Chinese merchants was not through 'Japan'. Ellis does not break it down in detail. His point was 50% or better of cargo entering & leaving Japans ports 1940 was carried on foreign flagged ships. Most of that was commercially contracted. While the IJN/IJA owned some cargo ships, most of what they used was contracted. The bulk of the cargo was commercially contracted, even if military material.

Between the US and Britain 70% to 80% of the worlds cargo fleet of 1941 was under their direct or indirect control. ie: Norways large commercial fleet was under control of the Norwegian government in exile sitting in london. Ditto for the sizable Dutch & Greek cargo fleets. The US did not have a large commercial fleet under its flag, but US business like Standard oil owned those flagged in Panama, Liberia, ect... Between the US & London banks & miscl shipping companies a firm hand was on the ostensibly independent shipping companies in Latin American or the few other independent & neutral nations. Italy, Germany, Hungary, Slovakia, Bulgaria, Rumania... did not have much to offer for global cargo shipping independent of Brit/US control. Turkey, Portugal, Spain, Uruguay, Chile... had a small portion of the global fleet, & had decreasing economic incentives to get crossways contracting embargoed cargos to Japan.
Last edited by Carl Schwamberger on 13 Jun 2020 16:05, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Japan launches Kantokuen - British DoW?

Post by Carl Schwamberger » 13 Jun 2020 15:59

Japan had established a construction program to expand its owned or flagged cargo fleet. In 1941 that took on a emergency aspect. Of course that ran counter to the need of the warship construction program. Ellis has information on what the Japanese were able to launch 1942-1944, which I cant recall from memory, other than it was inadequate to fill requirements.

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Re: Japan launches Kantokuen - British DoW?

Post by Tom from Cornwall » 13 Jun 2020 16:55

Carl Schwamberger wrote:
13 Jun 2020 15:53


Ellis does not break it down in detail. His point was 50% or better of cargo entering & leaving Japans ports 1940 was carried on foreign flagged ships. Most of that was commercially contracted. While the IJN/IJA owned some cargo ships, most of what they used was contracted. The bulk of the cargo was commercially contracted, even if military material.
Carl,

Thanks, I'm going to look into this in more depth when I can get back to Kew. I imagine that the British had a ministry of Shipping; they seemed to have a ministry for everything during WW2. Except, funny walks! :D

Regards

Tom

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Re: Japan launches Kantokuen - British DoW?

Post by TheMarcksPlan » 13 Jun 2020 17:50

Carl Scwamberger wrote:. Understanding this cargo shipping shortfall is essential for understanding Japans economic position in the Aurtum of 1941, and the problem of prosecuting the war after the assorted conquests were completed in the Spring of 1942. (John Ellis 'Brute Force').
I don't see the relevance of this point.

Whatever Japan's shipping situation, she was able to conquer SE Asia OTL. The shipping demands of Ward's ATL are, on balance, probably lower than OTL.

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Re: Japan launches Kantokuen - British DoW?

Post by T. A. Gardner » 13 Jun 2020 18:36

TheMarcksPlan wrote:
13 Jun 2020 09:45
You're not taking seriously the scenario sketched here after Japanese possession of DEI.

The Philippine Archipelago is ~1,000 miles long - same as the U.S. East Coast from Boston to Florida. 3-400 aircraft and ten provincial divisions are not sufficient to render that vast expanse and its 7,641 islands impregnable. From Borneo, Celebes, Paulau, and Formosa the Japanese can attack anywhere they want, concentrating more carrier-based aircraft at one point than the U.S. has across the entire archipelago (plus land-based support as in OTL). Between Hawaii and the PI are thousands of miles covered by Japanese planes and ships in the South Seas Mandate. And the U.S. had no intent to rush the Pacific Fleet across these defenses to protect the PI, as you surely know.

So the PI are cut off logistically and, though containing strong forces, cannot prevent Japanese lodgment somewhere in the chain.

The situation is a lot like '44-45 with the sides switched. It'll be a bloodier campaign but it ends in Japanese victory.
The Philippines is defensible with 10 Philippine and 2 US infantry divisions plus corps level support. The US / Filipino forces don't have to hold everything. They have to hold Luzon and Mindanao. Just as the US only has to hold Oahu in Hawaii, so long as they control those two islands with the bulk of the population, resources, and developed infrastructure, taking the rest is pretty much a futile exercise.
The US to reinforce the islands in a scenario where they are not at war with Japan would likely follow history. That is, military reinforcements would be convoyed (like the Pensacola Convoy) there via the South Pacific going around the Japanese mandates in the Central Pacific. Assembled aircraft would likely often be flown off a carrier rather than carried the whole way there. Bombers with the range to do it would fly there on their own as B-17's did.
Japan in a scenario where they took the DEI by force but are not at war with the US means Japan has ZERO way of stopping such activities other than to go to war with the US.

Once a shooting war started, so long as that occurs after that initial build up planned for mid 1942, Japan cannot take the PI and even if the islands are isolated, they are largely self-sufficient in food and other basic necessities. The military forces would only need fuel and munitions on an ongoing basis. That might be tough in a prolonged active campaign but as the US would have delivered large quantities prior to the war, they could easily last a year or more on what they had in low activity combat.
The reason I say Japan couldn't successfully invade at that point is they would still have to make amphibious landings. The historical Philippine ones consisted of about 2 divisions + support units for the first wave ashore. That was about all the Japanese could muster up for shipping and the invasion force. Unlike the historical ones, the beaches the Japanese used (which really can't change much) would now have mobile 155mm coast defense batteries covering them, and the Philippine Army units would be at close to full strength and better trained. This means even if the Japanese landings succeed in whole or part, they have units ashore that are in much worse condition to continue the campaign and likely find themselves unable to effectively advance much off their initial lodgments. They also better hope the US doesn't have M3 medium tanks on the island and these engage their forces.
With a much larger air force and better planes, the US and Philippine Air Force will likely be able to contest air control and possibly even retain air superiority. Sure, I'd think the IJN could achieve sea control but it does them little good if the IJA is getting pummeled ashore. With the need for units in China and Russia, the IJA would also be in a worse position to keep funneling troops into a prolonged war of attrition in the Philippines.
Historically, the Japanese just won in the Philippines. Their units were seriously depleted and General Homma had to request large numbers of additional units replacements before he could finally take the islands. Here, the US / Philippines has far more troops with more and better equipment. It would take the Japanese considerably larger forces than the two divisions historically assigned to do the job.
These are generalities marching toward your preferred conclusion heedless of detailed analysis.

What deleterious impact on the Japanese economy does war with Russia have?
For one, the intensity of a war in Russia would be much higher than it was in China and Japan would have to put considerably more resources into replacing losses in material and manpower than they were in China alone. This reduces manpower in the economy and at the same time draws heavily on what material stocks Japan has. For example, since Japan really has no source of aluminum, they will have a shortage of this material that gets worse because of having to build more replacement aircraft to cover for losses.
Why would Chinese armies suddenly demonstrate offensive potential they never had OTL?
It doesn't have to demonstrate great potential, but rather sufficient to force the Japanese into committing large numbers of troops to the fighting as happened in several historical campaigns. This has the effect of forcing Japan to pull troops from somewhere else to do this. If this reduced replacements to the Russian front, it could cripple Japanese offensive capability. It might make it difficult to find decent units to occupy territory like French Indochina and the DEI as Japan pulls all the decent and experienced units out for replacements.
Even if Chiang retakes some cities in '41-'42, what's the strategic effect? Nothing. It just escalates Nationalist-Communist fighting in the recaptured areas.
In this case, the Soviets might tell Mao to cooperate with the Nationalists against Japan. Since Mao is dependent on them for arms and supplies, he would have little choice.
In the longer term, with Russia out of the picture by '43, Kwantung Army deploys for an earlier Ichi-Go and during '44 Changsha and Chengdu are likely conquered. The Nationalist regime would lose all perceptions of legitimacy and cease to be relevant.
That assumes the US hasn't gotten into a war with Japan by then. Given events in Europe it is highly likely the US has gone to war with Germany and is in a war, in turn, with Japan.

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