What type of crushing defeat would it take for Hitler and the Nazis to get overthrown in the winter of 1941-1942?

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What type of crushing defeat would it take for Hitler and the Nazis to get overthrown in the winter of 1941-1942?

Post by Futurist » 19 May 2020 05:18

What type of crushing defeat on the Eastern Front would it take for Hitler and the Nazis to get overthrown by an internal anti-Nazi military coup in the winter of 1941-1942? Obviously the defeat at the Battle of Moscow that the Nazis suffered was nowhere near decisive enough for this--which raises the question of just how much of a crushing Soviet victory/crushing Nazi defeat would actually be necessary for a successful anti-Nazi coup to occur in Germany this early.

Also, if such a coup indeed occurs this early, what effects would this have on the war? Assume that the new leadership of Germany will be similar in political views to those who participated in the July 20th Plot in 1944 in real life.

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Re: What type of crushing defeat would it take for Hitler and the Nazis to get overthrown in the winter of 1941-1942?

Post by Kurt_Steiner » 19 May 2020 10:47

I think that 1941-1942 is too early for an anti-nazi coup. You would need a disaster Bagration-size to cause some turmoil.

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Re: What type of crushing defeat would it take for Hitler and the Nazis to get overthrown in the winter of 1941-1942?

Post by Futurist » 19 May 2020 19:36

Kurt_Steiner wrote:
19 May 2020 10:47
I think that 1941-1942 is too early for an anti-nazi coup. You would need a disaster Bagration-size to cause some turmoil.
You mean along these lines? :

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Bagration

Also, out of curiosity--if France doesn't fall in 1940 due to the Sickle-Cut maneuver failing, just how long do you think that it would take for a successful internal anti-Nazi coup to occur within Germany?

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Re: What type of crushing defeat would it take for Hitler and the Nazis to get overthrown in the winter of 1941-1942?

Post by T. A. Gardner » 19 May 2020 23:54

I suspect that the only one that could bring on a full civil war and overthrow of the Nazi regime in 41 - 42 would be the US / Britain starts nuking cities. A one bomb, one bomber, one radioactive pile of ash were a city was would pretty much be something the Nazis couldn't propaganda away or hide from the general population.
A Bagration defeat in the East wouldn't be enough. It could be propagandized away as it wouldn't be in plain sight to the bulk of the German people.
But, Hamburg goes up in a mushroom cloud Monday, the Ruhr gets mushroom clouded on Tuesday, etc., is not going to be something you can cover up or explain away. The average German is going to look at this and say something like The Luftwaffe can't defend us. The Nazis are going to just get every city in Germany destroyed in like six months. It's time for a new direction...

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Re: What type of crushing defeat would it take for Hitler and the Nazis to get overthrown in the winter of 1941-1942?

Post by Sid Guttridge » 20 May 2020 00:12

The only crushing defeat feasible at that time was the repulse of the invasion of the USSR.

Sid.

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Re: What type of crushing defeat would it take for Hitler and the Nazis to get overthrown in the winter of 1941-1942?

Post by Carl Schwamberger » 20 May 2020 00:27

Futurist wrote:
19 May 2020 19:36
Kurt_Steiner wrote:
19 May 2020 10:47
I think that 1941-1942 is too early for an anti-nazi coup. You would need a disaster Bagration-size to cause some turmoil.
You mean along these lines? :

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Bagration

Also, out of curiosity--if France doesn't fall in 1940 due to the Sickle-Cut maneuver failing, just how long do you think that it would take for a successful internal anti-Nazi coup to occur within Germany?
How long would it take to reproduce the conditions of 1918 in Germany? It appears the French hoped for the winter of 1941-2 at the earliest & 1943 at the latest, but when they failed to obtain the cooperation of the USSR it undercut the blockade. In favor of the French strategy was the less prosperous German economy of 1939 vs 1914, & the possible lesser competence of nazi administration.

The nature of a German operational defeat in 1940 is a variable. A really ugly morale breaking defeat would hasten things along vs the stalemate of 1914.

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Re: What type of crushing defeat would it take for Hitler and the Nazis to get overthrown in the winter of 1941-1942?

Post by maltesefalcon » 20 May 2020 01:55

Germany and its allies suffered 1 million casualties IRL during the Barbarossa campaign. A pretty grim outcome already.

But to be an irretrievable loss, one needs to not only neutralize a substantial portion of the Wehrmacht. You need to destroy the ability to rebuild and resupply said forces. So-kill a large part of the German population at home and destroy their infrastructure.

In addition to a 3 year long series of massive battles on the Ostfront, this was accomplished IRL by recapture of Western Europe, winning the naval war, massive strategic bombing, winning the production battle and ensuring Japan was no longer a threat.

Since the USA was a big contributor to some of this effort, it is unrealistic to think these conditions could be met by end 1942.

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Re: What type of crushing defeat would it take for Hitler and the Nazis to get overthrown in the winter of 1941-1942?

Post by Futurist » 20 May 2020 02:07

maltesefalcon wrote:
20 May 2020 01:55
Germany and its allies suffered 1 million casualties IRL during the Barbarossa campaign. A pretty grim outcome already.

But to be an irretrievable loss, one needs to not only neutralize a substantial portion of the Wehrmacht. You need to destroy the ability to rebuild and resupply said forces. So-kill a large part of the German population at home and destroy their infrastructure.

In addition to a 3 year long series of massive battles on the Ostfront, this was accomplished IRL by recapture of Western Europe, winning the naval war, massive strategic bombing, winning the production battle and ensuring Japan was no longer a threat.

Since the USA was a big contributor to some of this effort, it is unrealistic to think these conditions could be met by end 1942.
I was actually thinking of this being done in late 1941-early 1942 as opposed to in late 1942, but that would make it even more unlikely, would it not?

Anyway, what about if France doesn't fall in 1940 due to the Sickle-Cut maneuver failing?

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Re: What type of crushing defeat would it take for Hitler and the Nazis to get overthrown in the winter of 1941-1942?

Post by Carl Schwamberger » 20 May 2020 03:35

Futurist wrote:
20 May 2020 02:07
...

Anyway, what about if France doesn't fall in 1940 due to the Sickle-Cut maneuver failing?
Like I wrote earlier; it depends first on how vulnerable Germany is to the blockade, & second how badly the 1940 attack is repulsed.

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Re: What type of crushing defeat would it take for Hitler and the Nazis to get overthrown in the winter of 1941-1942?

Post by maltesefalcon » 20 May 2020 13:00

Futurist wrote:
20 May 2020 02:07
maltesefalcon wrote:
20 May 2020 01:55
Germany and its allies suffered 1 million casualties IRL during the Barbarossa campaign. A pretty grim outcome already.

But to be an irretrievable loss, one needs to not only neutralize a substantial portion of the Wehrmacht. You need to destroy the ability to rebuild and resupply said forces. So-kill a large part of the German population at home and destroy their infrastructure.

In addition to a 3 year long series of massive battles on the Ostfront, this was accomplished IRL by recapture of Western Europe, winning the naval war, massive strategic bombing, winning the production battle and ensuring Japan was no longer a threat.

Since the USA was a big contributor to some of this effort, it is unrealistic to think these conditions could be met by end 1942.
I was actually thinking of this being done in late 1941-early 1942 as opposed to in late 1942, but that would make it even more unlikely, would it not?

Anyway, what about if France doesn't fall in 1940 due to the Sickle-Cut maneuver failing?
If the Western Front war was not completed in 1940 with a German victory, it would be absurd to assume there would even be an Ostfront in 1941.
In any case, such a radical departure in premise and timeline from the OP should be considered an entirely new topic and posted in a separate thread IMHO.

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Re: What type of crushing defeat would it take for Hitler and the Nazis to get overthrown in the winter of 1941-1942?

Post by Kurt_Steiner » 20 May 2020 18:21

Futurist wrote:
19 May 2020 19:36
Kurt_Steiner wrote:
19 May 2020 10:47
I think that 1941-1942 is too early for an anti-nazi coup. You would need a disaster Bagration-size to cause some turmoil.
You mean along these lines? :

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Bagration
Yes, nothing short of a disaster in Barbarrossa could provide the shock needed to remove Hitler in 1941-2.

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Re: What type of crushing defeat would it take for Hitler and the Nazis to get overthrown in the winter of 1941-1942?

Post by TheMarcksPlan » 21 May 2020 00:02

Kurt_Steiner wrote:
20 May 2020 18:21
Futurist wrote:
19 May 2020 19:36
Kurt_Steiner wrote:
19 May 2020 10:47
I think that 1941-1942 is too early for an anti-nazi coup. You would need a disaster Bagration-size to cause some turmoil.
You mean along these lines? :

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Bagration
Yes, nothing short of a disaster in Barbarrossa could provide the shock needed to remove Hitler in 1941-2.
Maybe something along the lines where Rasputitsa comes 10 days early in 1941 and the Battle of Moscow becomes a Stalingrad-style disaster for Ostheer. viewtopic.php?f=11&t=248856

I'm not deeply read on the following but here goes anyway: It seems that one of the constraints on the later conspirators was the strength of the SS. When they proposed assassinating Hitler on his visit to AGC in 1943, Kluge was aware and, though he didn't turn them in, he refused to allow the assassination due to fear of an SS-Heer civil war.

If the conspirators feel empowered to move in late '41 or early '42, the SS is relatively weaker and the Heer relatively stronger in military and administrative/political terms.

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Re: What type of crushing defeat would it take for Hitler and the Nazis to get overthrown in the winter of 1941-1942?

Post by Rheinmetall-Borsig » 30 Aug 2020 20:16

TheMarcksPlan wrote:
21 May 2020 00:02
Kurt_Steiner wrote:
20 May 2020 18:21
Futurist wrote:
19 May 2020 19:36
Kurt_Steiner wrote:
19 May 2020 10:47
I think that 1941-1942 is too early for an anti-nazi coup. You would need a disaster Bagration-size to cause some turmoil.
You mean along these lines? :

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Bagration
Yes, nothing short of a disaster in Barbarrossa could provide the shock needed to remove Hitler in 1941-2.
Maybe something along the lines where Rasputitsa comes 10 days early in 1941 and the Battle of Moscow becomes a Stalingrad-style disaster for Ostheer. viewtopic.php?f=11&t=248856

I'm not deeply read on the following but here goes anyway: It seems that one of the constraints on the later conspirators was the strength of the SS. When they proposed assassinating Hitler on his visit to AGC in 1943, Kluge was aware and, though he didn't turn them in, he refused to allow the assassination due to fear of an SS-Heer civil war.

If the conspirators feel empowered to move in late '41 or early '42, the SS is relatively weaker and the Heer relatively stronger in military and administrative/political terms.
Hi,

The opporunity for a coup in late 1941 or early 1942 does not exist. However with extremely accurte and correct information, analysis, creaitvity, realism and synthesis, a very plausible scenorio could occur.

At the centre of the scenorio and one of the reasons why the German resistance never had a real chance of a succesful coup against Hitler, was an indiviaul of real charisma and intelligence within the Heer, Luftwaffe or Kriegsmarine. Even if that person did exist, like Rommel, no one held a significant position of power to wield or for it to grow. On paper any coup before 1938 was possible because Blomberg was Reichsminister of War but everything post-1938 Nazi power over the Wehmarcht just keeps increasing.

The Soviet victory at the battle of Moscow and the removal of Blomberg and now Brauchitsch was serious and there was not that other natural figure of an opposition who commanded large sections of military opinion across the Heer, Luftwaffe and Kriegsmarine on Hitler's actions in directing the war. Even if it was behind his back. No doubt they spoke about his decisions but they just discussed in opposition and that was it. If there had been a natural person of opposition with significant power, the loss of Moscow and the overbearing of the German army would have been viewed differently because a person with a command who has followers can command opinions.

So one the one hand Hitler's ever increasing power over the Military prevented coups but then on the otherhand German resistance lack of power and talent rendered them inable to create an effective opposition to Hitler within the Military. Therefore it required consistent incompetency and insanity of Hitler on an obscene level for the German resistance movement to begin even attempting to kill Hitler. The first attempt by the military was in 1943 during the war.

In relation to positions of power for the supposed individual. You want a position where the indiviual can score some war points, German patriotic points, intelligence points and Charisma points. These can take all forms and sizes within all branches of the armed services. You just need the correct indiviual, in the correct poistion, at the correct time and in the correct order of sequences.

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