Plausibility Check/What If: A divided mainland China instead of a Communist victory in the Chinese Civil War?

[Futurist]

Is it plausible to see a divided mainland China (as in Korea and, for a couple of decades, in Vietnam) instead of a Communist victory in the Chinese Civil War? If so, what exactly is the most realistic way to achieve this and what would the effects and consequences of this have been?

Thoughts?

[paulrward]

Hello All ;

To Mr. Futurist :

Perhaps the most plausible way to have prevented an all Communist China would be if Harry the
Habberdasher had sent ANYONE other that marshall Marshall to China to get information on the
situation of the ground there in December of 1945. Marshall allowed himself to be propagandized
by leftists in the State Department into believing that Mao and his Communists were nothing more
than ' Rural Land Reformers ', who would bring a new era of independant farmers to China.

For this reason, Marshall returned to Washington, and essentially told Truman that the Nationalist
Government under Chiang Kai Shek was hopelessly corrupt, and that the United States should cut
all aid to China. As a result, when Mao began his offensive, the Nationalist army had no ammuntion,
no spare parts for equipment like tanks, artillery, and aircraft, and no way to obtain these things.

What was worse, when the Nationalists attempted to purchase these items with their own available
money, the State Department, under the guidance of such loyal Americans as Alger Hiss, prevented
the supplies from being granted export licenses, leaving literally tons of equipment and supplies
in West Coast warehouses. Some of this was subsequently shipped to China AFTER Mao and Company
had won their revolution.

So, the most plausible way to prevent a Communist Victory in China would have been for some
loyal, decent person to put a gun to the back of marshall Marshall's head and blow his brains out,
and then have Douglas MacArthur make a quick trip to China, send a more realistic report to Truman,
and give Chancre Jack the military toys he would have needed to settle Mao's hash once and for all.

This would not have led to a divided China, but it is possible that, in the case of China, " There
Can Be Only One ! "

Respectfully :

Paul R. Ward

[Terry Duncan]

Hi Futurist,

There are rules laid out by Andy H about what should be laid out in a What If scenario, and this isn't even close so far. Could you please try to fill out some of the missing details?

viewtopic.php?f=11&t=77436

[Futurist]

Hi Futurist,

There are rules laid out by Andy H about what should be laid out in a What If scenario, and this isn't even close so far. Could you please try to fill out some of the missing details?

viewtopic.php?f=11&t=77436

Personally, the question for me as to whether this would actually be plausible would depend on whether China is more like Korea or more like Vietnam. As in, if the Chinese Nationalists are able to hold the Chinese Communists at a particular front line, are the Chinese Communists subsequently able to gradually infiltrate this line as the Vietnamese Communists did in Vietnam and create a Communist insurgency in Nationalist South China? Or is the front line going to be stable and without there actually being any insurgencies south of this front line--as in Korea, where there appears to have been no major Communist insurgencies in South Korea after the end of Korean War in 1953?

As for the effects of this, I suspect that Nationalist South China is likely to take a trajectory similar to that of Taiwan--though perhaps somewhat slower since the old elites are going to be more entrenched there, thus possibly making things such as land reform harder. As for Communist North China, it could either become a giant North Korea or similar to the China that exists in real life but two times or so smaller. I suspect that the latter is more likely but the former cannot be completely ruled out due to the possibility that, like the North Korean Communists, the Chinese Communists could develop a sense of hyper-vulnerability in this scenario due to them having a more prosperous, US-allied, and possibly eventually more powerful neighbor to the south that is comprised of their ethnic kinsmen.