The largest possible Soviet bloc in Europe if France doesn't fall in 1940?

Discussions on alternate history, including events up to 20 years before today. Hosted by Terry Duncan.
Futurist
Member
Posts: 2654
Joined: 24 Dec 2015 00:02
Location: SoCal

The largest possible Soviet bloc in Europe if France doesn't fall in 1940?

Post by Futurist » 26 Aug 2020 07:44

What is the largest possible Soviet bloc in Europe if France doesn't fall in 1940?

IMHO, in such a scenario, with a quick WWII (so, anti-Nazis in Germany quickly overthrow Hitler and the Nazis after their failure in France), the Soviets will only be able to get border adjustments in their favor in the West (so, eastern Poland, parts of Finland, possibly the Baltic countries and/or Bessarabia/northern Bukovina) but no actual satellite states in Europe. With a long WWII (for instance, if Hitler still has the luck of the Devil and thus still manages to survive all assassination attempts on him, as in real life), things become more interesting. In such a scenario, in addition to getting border adjustments in their favor in the West, I could certainly see the Soviet Union liberating Poland, Czechoslovakia, and East Germany from Nazi rule and subsequently turning these countries into Soviet satellite states--possibly for decades, as in real life. I suppose that Hungary could meet a similar fate if it refuses to obey a Soviet ultimatum to hand over Subcarpathian Ruthenia to the Soviet Union, but it's extremely unlikely that Hungary would actually refuse to obey such a Soviet ultimatum since the power imbalance between itself and the Soviet Union is simply too overwhelming. So, unlike in real life, I don't actually see Hungary, Romania (other than Bessarabia and northern Bukovina), and Bulgaria ever actually becoming Soviet satellite states or ever actually becoming Communist at all for that matter. Likewise, I expect both Yugoslavia and Albania to likewise permanently avoid Communist rule in this scenario.

Sid Guttridge
Member
Posts: 7689
Joined: 12 Jun 2008 11:19

Re: The largest possible Soviet bloc in Europe if France doesn't fall in 1940?

Post by Sid Guttridge » 26 Aug 2020 09:21

Hi Futurist,

Clearly the largest POSSIBLE result is the Soviet conquest of the whole of Europe and a consequent Soviet bloc of continental size.

Do you mean what is the most plausible size of Soviet bloc?

Cheers,

Sid.

maltesefalcon
Member
Posts: 1884
Joined: 03 Sep 2003 18:15
Location: Canada

Re: The largest possible Soviet bloc in Europe if France doesn't fall in 1940?

Post by maltesefalcon » 26 Aug 2020 14:29

This a hot mess of a What If because of the number of options, yet few pertinent details contained within.

Suffice it to say that the situation would be unstable in the West if no 1940 German/Italian victory. (Which includes Netherlands, Belgium, Luxembourg, and the UK-do they not deserve a mention?)

There would be no possibility of a 1941 Barbarossa campaign whether Hitler and the Nazis held power or not. Germany would either be defeated or making preparations to fight the West anew. So no Africa campaign. Also unlikely the ties between Hungary/Romania and the Reich. IRL that predicated on the two nations falling into the thrall of a Hitler at the height of his power, due to the 1940 triumph. This would also scotch the Balkan and Greek campaigns IMHO. Italy may still be neutral, as they did not join the war until Germany had the situation well in hand.

The rest would depend on whether Germany survived and whether Stalin pushed West on his own accord, without an Axis invasion. No way to tell based on sketchy scenerio provided.

Futurist
Member
Posts: 2654
Joined: 24 Dec 2015 00:02
Location: SoCal

Re: The largest possible Soviet bloc in Europe if France doesn't fall in 1940?

Post by Futurist » 26 Aug 2020 15:38

Sid Guttridge wrote:
26 Aug 2020 09:21
Hi Futurist,

Clearly the largest POSSIBLE result is the Soviet conquest of the whole of Europe and a consequent Soviet bloc of continental size.

Do you mean what is the most plausible size of Soviet bloc?

Cheers,

Sid.
Yes, I meant the largest PLAUSIBLE Soviet bloc in Europe here. Thank you for the correction. By "possible", I was thinking of "realistic" here, but Yeah, maybe I didn't actually use the right word here.

Futurist
Member
Posts: 2654
Joined: 24 Dec 2015 00:02
Location: SoCal

Re: The largest possible Soviet bloc in Europe if France doesn't fall in 1940?

Post by Futurist » 26 Aug 2020 15:41

maltesefalcon wrote:
26 Aug 2020 14:29
This a hot mess of a What If because of the number of options, yet few pertinent details contained within.

Suffice it to say that the situation would be unstable in the West if no 1940 German/Italian victory. (Which includes Netherlands, Belgium, Luxembourg, and the UK-do they not deserve a mention?)
The UK would still be in the war. The Netherlands will likely get occupied by Nazi Germany, as will parts of Belgium and Luxembourg. However, their governments might continue the fight against Nazi Germany from France.
There would be no possibility of a 1941 Barbarossa campaign whether Hitler and the Nazis held power or not. Germany would either be defeated or making preparations to fight the West anew. So no Africa campaign. Also unlikely the ties between Hungary/Romania and the Reich. IRL that predicated on the two nations falling into the thrall of a Hitler at the height of his power, due to the 1940 triumph. This would also scotch the Balkan and Greek campaigns IMHO. Italy may still be neutral, as they did not join the war until Germany had the situation well in hand.
Yep, completely agreed with everything here.
The rest would depend on whether Germany survived and whether Stalin pushed West on his own accord, without an Axis invasion. No way to tell based on sketchy scenerio provided.
Please assume that Germany is doomed in the long(er)-run either way and that the only question is whether it is smart enough to make peace by having a new regime come to power there early enough through a military coup or whether Hitler is still able to avoid any and all assassination attempts on his life and thus remains in power in Germany until the very end. Frankly, I tried to discuss both of these scenarios here.

maltesefalcon
Member
Posts: 1884
Joined: 03 Sep 2003 18:15
Location: Canada

Re: The largest possible Soviet bloc in Europe if France doesn't fall in 1940?

Post by maltesefalcon » 26 Aug 2020 21:51

Clipped for brevity:

"Please assume that Germany is doomed in the long(er)-run either way and that the only question is whether it is smart enough to make peace by having a new regime come to power there early enough through a military coup or whether Hitler is still able to avoid any and all assassination attempts on his life and thus remains in power in Germany until the very end. Frankly, I tried to discuss both of these scenarios here."


Your question still predicates on war between Germany and USSR. There would be no making peace between these two powers, no matter who was in charge. They would not be at war.

IRL the first invasion of Russia was a failure but Germany tried again to prevail for nearly 4 years. They could keep trying vs West after 1940 as well, provided the Reich was not forced to surrender due to Pyrric losses. And if the Western powers protectively occupied Germany, Western Poland, Czechia after their victory, I'm pretty sure that Stalin would not stage a large-scale expansion to the Eastern frontier of Germany.

Futurist
Member
Posts: 2654
Joined: 24 Dec 2015 00:02
Location: SoCal

Re: The largest possible Soviet bloc in Europe if France doesn't fall in 1940?

Post by Futurist » 26 Aug 2020 23:00

maltesefalcon wrote:
26 Aug 2020 21:51
Clipped for brevity:

"Please assume that Germany is doomed in the long(er)-run either way and that the only question is whether it is smart enough to make peace by having a new regime come to power there early enough through a military coup or whether Hitler is still able to avoid any and all assassination attempts on his life and thus remains in power in Germany until the very end. Frankly, I tried to discuss both of these scenarios here."


Your question still predicates on war between Germany and USSR. There would be no making peace between these two powers, no matter who was in charge. They would not be at war.
Aren't your two last sentences here contradicting each other, though?
IRL the first invasion of Russia was a failure but Germany tried again to prevail for nearly 4 years. They could keep trying vs West after 1940 as well, provided the Reich was not forced to surrender due to Pyrric losses. And if the Western powers protectively occupied Germany, Western Poland, Czechia after their victory, I'm pretty sure that Stalin would not stage a large-scale expansion to the Eastern frontier of Germany.
If the Western Powers got to East Germany, Czechoslovakia, and (western) Poland first, then Yes, Stalin would be highly unlikely to invade those countries since that would risk a Soviet-Western war.

maltesefalcon
Member
Posts: 1884
Joined: 03 Sep 2003 18:15
Location: Canada

Re: The largest possible Soviet bloc in Europe if France doesn't fall in 1940?

Post by maltesefalcon » 27 Aug 2020 12:23

Futurist wrote:
26 Aug 2020 23:00
maltesefalcon wrote:
26 Aug 2020 21:51
Clipped for brevity:

"Please assume that Germany is doomed in the long(er)-run either way and that the only question is whether it is smart enough to make peace by having a new regime come to power there early enough through a military coup or whether Hitler is still able to avoid any and all assassination attempts on his life and thus remains in power in Germany until the very end. Frankly, I tried to discuss both of these scenarios here."


Your question still predicates on war between Germany and USSR. There would be no making peace between these two powers, no matter who was in charge. They would not be at war.
Aren't your two last sentences here contradicting each other, though?
IRL the first invasion of Russia was a failure but Germany tried again to prevail for nearly 4 years. They could keep trying vs West after 1940 as well, provided the Reich was not forced to surrender due to Pyrric losses. And if the Western powers protectively occupied Germany, Western Poland, Czechia after their victory, I'm pretty sure that Stalin would not stage a large-scale expansion to the Eastern frontier of Germany.
If the Western Powers got to East Germany, Czechoslovakia, and (western) Poland first, then Yes, Stalin would be highly unlikely to invade those countries since that would risk a Soviet-Western war.
My last two statements were comments about something I clipped from one of your own,
You were implying that Germany needed to make peace. That peace could only be negotiated with the west as Germany was not at war with the USSR in 1940.

And if there was no Ostfront, a large scale USSR move westward is unlikely.

Futurist
Member
Posts: 2654
Joined: 24 Dec 2015 00:02
Location: SoCal

Re: The largest possible Soviet bloc in Europe if France doesn't fall in 1940?

Post by Futurist » 13 Sep 2020 04:18

Yes, that is correct. If Germany is only at war with the West, then it would only need to negotiate peace with the West.

Also, you don't think that the USSR would create an Ostfront even if the war in the West will continue for a while?

Return to “What if”