If France doesn't fall in 1940, what happens in Asia?

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Futurist
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If France doesn't fall in 1940, what happens in Asia?

#1

Post by Futurist » 30 Nov 2020, 23:13

If France doesn't fall in 1940 (or later), what happens in Asia? Personally, here's what I think:

Japan is going to continue being bogged down in its quagmire in China without any clear strategy or exit options. Attacking either French Indochina or any other European or US colonial possessions in the region isn't actually going to be a realistic option for the Japanese since France's military power would have still been maintained, which would ensure that France could clean house with Japan after it is done defeating Germany in Europe--and ditto for Britain! I suppose that Japan might eventually withdraw from China once it will experience a severe financial and/or economic crisis or something of that sort, but I don't know just how long this will actually take.

A more interesting question, in my honest opinion, is whether the Soviet Union is eventually going to go to war against Japan in this scenario in an attempt to help liberate China from the Japanese, expand Soviet influence in China, and of course get some territories (specifically southern Sakhalin and the Kuril Islands) at Japan's expense. A war against Japan in China could, of course, also allow the Soviet Union to get some military target practice on actual fighting terrain. This would be especially useful for the Soviet Union considering that the Soviet Union would have skipped out on participating in World War II in Europe in this scenario.

Anyway, though, what do you think? Also, I suppose that another interesting question would be what the post-war aftermath of any Soviet-Japanese war in Asia is likely to be in this scenario.

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Re: If France doesn't fall in 1940, what happens in Asia?

#2

Post by wm » 01 Dec 2020, 01:30

The USSR recognized the Japanese conquest de facto in 1935, an de jure in 1941 - by signing the Soviet-Japanese Neutrality Pact.


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Re: If France doesn't fall in 1940, what happens in Asia?

#3

Post by Futurist » 01 Dec 2020, 02:24

What happened in 1935?

Also, which conquest are you talking about here?

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Re: If France doesn't fall in 1940, what happens in Asia?

#4

Post by wm » 01 Dec 2020, 02:40

The USSR recognized the existence of Manchukuo because obviously, it wanted Japanese (and international) recognition of the Soviet conquest of Outer Mongolia.
The USSR wasn't a good uncle doing things from goodness of its heart.

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Re: If France doesn't fall in 1940, what happens in Asia?

#5

Post by Futurist » 01 Dec 2020, 02:52

OK. That said, though, the USSR was perfectly capable of breaking treaties:

-It broke the 1932 Soviet-Polish Non-Aggression Pact in 1939
-It broke the 1941 Soviet-Japanese Non-Aggression Pact in 1945

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Re: If France doesn't fall in 1940, what happens in Asia?

#6

Post by Thumpalumpacus » 01 Dec 2020, 03:33

I think France would still have been hard-put to resist Japanese aggression in Indochina.

Not sure how the Soviets would respond in East Asia. They would still have to maintain large forces to defend against possible Nazi threats or arm-twisting.

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Re: If France doesn't fall in 1940, what happens in Asia?

#7

Post by wm » 01 Dec 2020, 03:50

Futurist wrote:
01 Dec 2020, 02:52
OK. That said, though, the USSR was perfectly capable of breaking treaties:

-It broke the 1932 Soviet-Polish Non-Aggression Pact in 1939
-It broke the 1941 Soviet-Japanese Non-Aggression Pact in 1945
Stalin wasn't going to help the (capitalist and "reactionist") Republic of China.
According to Soviet ideology, there was no difference between Japan and China - both were sworn enemies.
The best (and Ideologically pure) strategy was to let them destroy each other, hoping for a resulting communist revolution.

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Re: If France doesn't fall in 1940, what happens in Asia?

#8

Post by Futurist » 01 Dec 2020, 04:48

wm wrote:
01 Dec 2020, 03:50
Futurist wrote:
01 Dec 2020, 02:52
OK. That said, though, the USSR was perfectly capable of breaking treaties:

-It broke the 1932 Soviet-Polish Non-Aggression Pact in 1939
-It broke the 1941 Soviet-Japanese Non-Aggression Pact in 1945
Stalin wasn't going to help the (capitalist and "reactionist") Republic of China.
According to Soviet ideology, there was no difference between Japan and China - both were sworn enemies.
The best (and Ideologically pure) strategy was to let them destroy each other, hoping for a resulting communist revolution.
Stalin could help the Chinese Communists come to power in China through a Soviet military intervention there.

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Re: If France doesn't fall in 1940, what happens in Asia?

#9

Post by Futurist » 01 Dec 2020, 04:49

Thumpalumpacus wrote:
01 Dec 2020, 03:33
I think France would still have been hard-put to resist Japanese aggression in Indochina.
Initially, but not after Germany is defeated/crushed.
Not sure how the Soviets would respond in East Asia. They would still have to maintain large forces to defend against possible Nazi threats or arm-twisting.
But the size of these forces would be significantly less than in real life, no?

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Re: If France doesn't fall in 1940, what happens in Asia?

#10

Post by T. A. Gardner » 01 Dec 2020, 07:42

If France doesn't fall, they retain control of Indochina. That in turn creates a bigger dilemma over the DEI which I'd assume the Netherlands has still fallen under German control. The DEI would still act independently of German control but with France still in the picture taking it would be much harder as would taking Malaya and Singapore.
This would make the Southern option for Japan much harder to carry out.

Another question needing an answer is Does Italy enter the war? With France fighting on, and Italy remaining neutral, the whole North Africa campaign doesn't happen. Yes, Britain is going to be involved on the continent but will likely have at least somewhat larger forces they can push into Malaya and Singapore not to mention a much stronger naval option given no Mediterranean campaign.

One clear possibility here is that Britain decides to send say 2 older battleships and a carrier to Singapore along with some 8" cruisers (these were intended in large part for Asian service originally) and older destroyers. That would give the RN a much stronger force operating out of Singapore than was there historically and with Japan unable to use land based aircraft against them, it puts the IJN in a much weaker position.

The other possibility is Italy is in the war, and is defeated in Africa by a combination of British and French forces. This too would result in freeing up British forces for Asia eventually. It might also open a second front in the Balkans and that might get the Russians involved in the war, but I see that as less likely than their sitting on the sidelines until it's clear who's going to win then picking up some cheap and easy to conqueror real estate in Eastern Europe.

I doubt the Soviets would get involved in Asia. Stalin's best move is to continue to sell resources to Germany and let the Germans and French kill each other in a war of attrition while sitting back and strengthening his own forces for an eventual entry into the war in Europe on the French and British side in a late-war land grab--assuming the British and French get the upper hand. That's much better than grabbing what in the 1930's and 40's was a bunch of largely worthless land in China.

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Re: If France doesn't fall in 1940, what happens in Asia?

#11

Post by Futurist » 02 Dec 2020, 00:02

T. A. Gardner wrote:
01 Dec 2020, 07:42
If France doesn't fall, they retain control of Indochina. That in turn creates a bigger dilemma over the DEI which I'd assume the Netherlands has still fallen under German control. The DEI would still act independently of German control but with France still in the picture taking it would be much harder as would taking Malaya and Singapore.
This would make the Southern option for Japan much harder to carry out.

Another question needing an answer is Does Italy enter the war? With France fighting on, and Italy remaining neutral, the whole North Africa campaign doesn't happen. Yes, Britain is going to be involved on the continent but will likely have at least somewhat larger forces they can push into Malaya and Singapore not to mention a much stronger naval option given no Mediterranean campaign.

One clear possibility here is that Britain decides to send say 2 older battleships and a carrier to Singapore along with some 8" cruisers (these were intended in large part for Asian service originally) and older destroyers. That would give the RN a much stronger force operating out of Singapore than was there historically and with Japan unable to use land based aircraft against them, it puts the IJN in a much weaker position.

The other possibility is Italy is in the war, and is defeated in Africa by a combination of British and French forces. This too would result in freeing up British forces for Asia eventually. It might also open a second front in the Balkans and that might get the Russians involved in the war, but I see that as less likely than their sitting on the sidelines until it's clear who's going to win then picking up some cheap and easy to conqueror real estate in Eastern Europe.
Agreed with all of this. Also, I personally find it unlikely for Mussolini to drag Italy into World War II without the Fall of France unless it's on the Franco-British side, in which case he might be able to acquire North Tyrol as victory spoils after the war.
I doubt the Soviets would get involved in Asia. Stalin's best move is to continue to sell resources to Germany and let the Germans and French kill each other in a war of attrition while sitting back and strengthening his own forces for an eventual entry into the war in Europe on the French and British side in a late-war land grab--assuming the British and French get the upper hand. That's much better than grabbing what in the 1930's and 40's was a bunch of largely worthless land in China.
What about first fighting in Europe and then fighting in Asia, as was the case in real life?

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Re: If France doesn't fall in 1940, what happens in Asia?

#12

Post by wm » 02 Dec 2020, 01:06

Futurist wrote:
01 Dec 2020, 04:48
Stalin could help the Chinese Communists come to power in China through a Soviet military intervention there.
The communists were a spent force at that time, and there was nothing in it for the USSR.
Such a massive war probably would destroy not only the fragile Soviet economy but Soviet reputation all around the world too - in the same way, the invasions of Hungary and Czechoslovakia did.

And because China is invaded by two powers the US most likely isn't going to come to the rescue as it happened in the real world, leaving China for dead.

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Re: If France doesn't fall in 1940, what happens in Asia?

#13

Post by Futurist » 02 Dec 2020, 01:18

wm wrote:
02 Dec 2020, 01:06
Futurist wrote:
01 Dec 2020, 04:48
Stalin could help the Chinese Communists come to power in China through a Soviet military intervention there.
The communists were a spent force at that time, and there was nothing in it for the USSR.
Such a massive war probably would destroy not only the fragile Soviet economy but Soviet reputation all around the world too - in the same way, the invasions of Hungary and Czechoslovakia did.

And because China is invaded by two powers the US most likely isn't going to come to the rescue as it happened in the real world, leaving China for dead.
When did the US come to China's rescue in real life?

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Re: If France doesn't fall in 1940, what happens in Asia?

#14

Post by wm » 02 Dec 2020, 01:28

You are the fastest "gun" on this forum. :)

When Roosevelt declared the embargo on scrap-metal, oil, gasoline shipments to Japan, closed the Panama Canal to Japanese shipping, froze Japanese assets in the US.

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Re: If France doesn't fall in 1940, what happens in Asia?

#15

Post by Thumpalumpacus » 02 Dec 2020, 01:32

Futurist wrote:
01 Dec 2020, 04:49
Initially, but not after Germany is defeated/crushed.
Sure. But wasn't that projected to be in 1943?

Don't get me wrong. I consider the OTL Japanese actions in Indochina (in the face of being mired in China) to be unrealistic. I think they might still try the strongarm/invasion approach, but I don't think that's smart money.
Futurist wrote:
01 Dec 2020, 04:49
But the size of these forces would be significantly less than in real life, no?
Presumably, if Germany is defeated. If Germany is still engaged with France, that will certainly suck up troops and airpower. It would still be a threat to be guarded, and given their proximity and contiguity, I think Germany would be regarded as a very serious threat taking up many Soviet resources and preventing their deployment to Asia, hampering a drive into China.

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