If WWI breaks out two years later and Franz Joseph dies on schedule, does Kaiser Karl have greater odds of making peace?
If WWI breaks out two years later and Franz Joseph dies on schedule, does Kaiser Karl have greater odds of making peace?
If Franz Ferdinand goes to Sarajevo and gets assassinated in June *1916* as opposed to June 1914, and thus World War I breaks out two years later--with Franz Joseph dying on schedule in November 1916--does Kaiser Karl have much more odds of successfully implementing a compromise peace in this TL in comparison to our TL? The reason that I am asking is because in this TL Kaiser Karl will acquire the Austro-Hungarian thrones before Italy would have actually entered World War I. So, this could make a compromise peace significantly easier to achieve on Austria-Hungary's part. I was thinking something like this:
-Trentino to Italy, with autonomy
-Galicia to Russia, with autonomy
-Bosnia *and maybe* Dalmatia to Serbia, with autonomy
But with Austria-Hungary being able to keep the rest of its pre-war territory and perhaps even being able to acquire most or all of Silesia at Germany's expense after the war if it will change sides early on in the war and thus pave the way for an early Entente victory in WWI.
The crucial questions are, of course, whether Kaiser Karl would actually be willing to openly backstab his German ally like that (he'd likely initially aim for a general compromise peace, but if Germany says "No", then what?) and whether the Austro-Hungarian people, military, and ruling class would actually be willing to accept such a betrayal of Germany and a de facto Austro-Hungarian ally with Russia and dreaded Serbia.
Anyway, though, what do you personally think about this?
-Trentino to Italy, with autonomy
-Galicia to Russia, with autonomy
-Bosnia *and maybe* Dalmatia to Serbia, with autonomy
But with Austria-Hungary being able to keep the rest of its pre-war territory and perhaps even being able to acquire most or all of Silesia at Germany's expense after the war if it will change sides early on in the war and thus pave the way for an early Entente victory in WWI.
The crucial questions are, of course, whether Kaiser Karl would actually be willing to openly backstab his German ally like that (he'd likely initially aim for a general compromise peace, but if Germany says "No", then what?) and whether the Austro-Hungarian people, military, and ruling class would actually be willing to accept such a betrayal of Germany and a de facto Austro-Hungarian ally with Russia and dreaded Serbia.
Anyway, though, what do you personally think about this?
Re: If WWI breaks out two years later and Franz Joseph dies on schedule, does Kaiser Karl have greater odds of making pe
In my opinion, in WW1 every single belligerent wanted to enforce some insane peace terms on the defeated opponent.
It was simply so because the war didn't make any sense. The Central Powers were skyrocketing economically and socially compared to the Entente powers.
They already had more land and wealth than they could hold.
But if you take a look at the territorial claims before WW1, you'll see that the Italians wanted the whole Austrian Littoral and Dalmatia (not without realistic historical and ethnic claims). The Serbs promoted the idea of Panslavism, and that included everyone from the Slovenes down to Macedonia. Russia wanted warm water ports and an exit point to the Mediterranean, bypassing Turkey's straits. What you offered was most likely not enough; not enough without millions of lives lost.
What is more likely in this scenario that the A-H Empire would quit the war before it collapses internally. Karl was not so keen to "keep the promise" for Wilhelm II, and hold back Russia as long as the Germans "finish off the French" in the west. So it is possible that the war breaks out differently or not at all.
It was simply so because the war didn't make any sense. The Central Powers were skyrocketing economically and socially compared to the Entente powers.
They already had more land and wealth than they could hold.
But if you take a look at the territorial claims before WW1, you'll see that the Italians wanted the whole Austrian Littoral and Dalmatia (not without realistic historical and ethnic claims). The Serbs promoted the idea of Panslavism, and that included everyone from the Slovenes down to Macedonia. Russia wanted warm water ports and an exit point to the Mediterranean, bypassing Turkey's straits. What you offered was most likely not enough; not enough without millions of lives lost.
What is more likely in this scenario that the A-H Empire would quit the war before it collapses internally. Karl was not so keen to "keep the promise" for Wilhelm II, and hold back Russia as long as the Germans "finish off the French" in the west. So it is possible that the war breaks out differently or not at all.
"Everything remained theory and hypothesis. On paper, in his plans, in his head, he juggled with Geschwaders and Divisions, while in reality there were really only makeshift squadrons at his disposal."
Re: If WWI breaks out two years later and Franz Joseph dies on schedule, does Kaiser Karl have greater odds of making pe
Why didn't Austria-Hungary quit the war before it collapsed internally in real life? Was it because it couldn't get good enough peace terms from the Entente/Allies?
- Kurt_Steiner
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Re: If WWI breaks out two years later and Franz Joseph dies on schedule, does Kaiser Karl have greater odds of making pe
If the war goes as in its historical way, Karl is not going to feel any presssure to make peace until 1919 and, by then, the Entente would be determined to bring down the Central Powers.
Re: If WWI breaks out two years later and Franz Joseph dies on schedule, does Kaiser Karl have greater odds of making pe
Interesting; so, by the time the pressure to make peace becomes very real, it could already very well be too late for this--at least on terms that Austria-Hungary could actually accept.Kurt_Steiner wrote: ↑20 Dec 2020, 10:53If the war goes as in its historical way, Karl is not going to feel any presssure to make peace until 1919 and, by then, the Entente would be determined to bring down the Central Powers.
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Re: If WWI breaks out two years later and Franz Joseph dies on schedule, does Kaiser Karl have greater odds of making pe
Actually, the best scenario for WW 1 is the the Germans have decided on a different option entirely. Their planning, based on what they know are the treaty alignments and such is they don't intend to invade France at all. Instead they plan a war against Russia.
In the West against France they have their troops dig in behind massive fortifications along the French - German border assuming France won't invade Belgium and bring the British into the war opposed to them. Thus, a stalemate ensues in the West.
While that's occurring, the bulk of German forces crushes Russia and forces a surrender by the end of about 1915. With no British blockade, the US selling Germany massive amounts of war material because they're paying and have been the main US economic partner in Europe, the French are now facing a much stronger German military not starving to death.
Russia is gone as an ally and the Austro-Hungarians with German help are crushing their opposition in the Balkans. All Germany now needs is a negotiated peace with France and WW 1 is done and over by 1916. The question is, how much of Eastern Europe and Russia is Germany able to hold on to in negotiating that peace?
In the West against France they have their troops dig in behind massive fortifications along the French - German border assuming France won't invade Belgium and bring the British into the war opposed to them. Thus, a stalemate ensues in the West.
While that's occurring, the bulk of German forces crushes Russia and forces a surrender by the end of about 1915. With no British blockade, the US selling Germany massive amounts of war material because they're paying and have been the main US economic partner in Europe, the French are now facing a much stronger German military not starving to death.
Russia is gone as an ally and the Austro-Hungarians with German help are crushing their opposition in the Balkans. All Germany now needs is a negotiated peace with France and WW 1 is done and over by 1916. The question is, how much of Eastern Europe and Russia is Germany able to hold on to in negotiating that peace?
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Re: If WWI breaks out two years later and Franz Joseph dies on schedule, does Kaiser Karl have greater odds of making pe
Karl could try to do something like the Italian armistice in WW2: just to sign a separate peace and, if needed, to join the Allies against its former ally. Dirty? A bit, but if it works...
Re: If WWI breaks out two years later and Franz Joseph dies on schedule, does Kaiser Karl have greater odds of making pe
In such a scenario, Austria could get rewarded with German Silesia for its treachery in the event of an Allied WWI victory. But would the Austrian people actually be willing to stab Germany in the back like that?Kurt_Steiner wrote: ↑21 Dec 2020, 18:03Karl could try to do something like the Italian armistice in WW2: just to sign a separate peace and, if needed, to join the Allies against its former ally. Dirty? A bit, but if it works...